6 Results from the empirical analysis
6.2 Main results
6.2.2 Regression on re-enrollers
49 There is a small negative coefficient on female and a positive coefficient on foreign on
dropout probability. All coefficients on mother’s education is significantly negative on
dropout probability, and the coefficients are somewhat less negative compared to the previous model. The coefficient on mother education that has the biggest negative association with dropout probability is having supplementary education as highest obtained education. All of the coefficients on father’s education is still insignificant and have barely changed since the last model, with the highest coefficient for lower secondary, and the lowest coefficient on short university or college. All the schooling regions are still positive and significant and has not changed compared to the last model. The coefficients on grade averages are still negative and averages over 2 are significantly negatively associated with dropout probability. The coefficients have decreased compared to the last model, making the coefficients more
negative. The interaction term coefficients are positive for all grade averages, with the biggest coefficient being the interaction for being female and having a grade average of 3. None of the coefficients are significant, implying that a change in the dropout probability associated with increasing grade averages does not significantly differ between males and females.
50
Number of obs 19,769 F(30, 19738) 59.72 Prob > F 0.0000 R-squared 0.0618
Root MSE 0.44432
Table 15. Regression results for the probability of becoming a re-enroller
Probability of re-enrolling, dropout sample
Model 6 b/se
Model 7 b/se
Model 8 b/se
Model 9 b/se
Model 10 b/se
Female 0.037***
(0.01)
0.040***
(0.01)
0.039***
(0.01)
0.005 (0.01)
0.067 (0.18)
Foreign -0.087*
(0.04)
-0.123**
(0.04)
-0.120**
(0.04)
-0.103**
(0.04)
-0.103**
(0.04) Mother’s education
Lower sec 0.050
(0.03)
0.044 (0.03)
0.050 (0.03)
0.050 (0.03)
Upper sec, basic 0.126***
(0.03)
0.120***
(0.03)
0.109***
(0.03)
0.109***
(0.04)
Upper sec, final 0.124***
(0.03)
0.118***
(0.03)
0.103***
(0.03)
0.103***
(0.03)
Supplementary 0.147***
(0.04)
0.142***
(0.04)
0.117***
(0.04)
0.117***
(0.04) Short university or
college
0.166***
(0.03)
0.160***
(0.03)
0.121***
(0.03)
0.121***
(0.03) Long university or
college
0.229***
(0.03)
0.225***
(0.03)
0.161***
(0.03)
0.161***
(0.03)
Researcher 0.160*
(0.07)
0.153*
(0.07)
0.074 (0.06)
0.075 (0.06) Father’s education
Lower sec -0.009
(0.04)
-0.014 (0.04)
-0.019 (0.04)
-0.019 (0.04)
Upper sec, basic 0.019
(0.04)
0.014 (0.04)
-0.004 (0.04)
-0.004 (0.04)
Upper sec, final 0.059
(0.04)
0.052 (0.04)
0.028 (0.04)
0.028 (0.04)
Supplementary 0.091*
(0.04)
0.085*
(0.04)
0.050 (0.04)
0.049 (0.04) Short university or
college
0.106**
(0.04)
0.101*
(0.04)
0.052 (0.04)
0.052 (0.04) Long university or
college
0.125**
(0.04)
0.120**
(0.04)
0.053 (0.04)
0.054 (0.04)
Researcher 0.138** 0.127* 0.059 0.058
51
(0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.05)
School region
Mid 0.027
(0.02)
0.024 (0.02)
0.024 (0.02)
East -0.016
(0.01)
-0.022 (0.01)
-0.022 (0.01)
West 0.028
(0.01)
0.016 (0.01)
0.015 (0.01)
North -0.007
(0.02)
-0.019 (0.02)
-0.019 (0.02) Average grades
2 0.115
(0.08)
0.139 (0.09)
3 0.194*
(0.08)
0.214*
(0.09)
4 0.307***
(0.06)
0.322***
(0.09)
5 0.417***
(0.08)
0.410***
(0.09)
6 0.406***
(0.08)
0.360**
(0.12) Interaction, gender
and grades
Female * 2 -0.088
(0.18)
Female * 3 -0.070
(0.18)
Female * 4 -0.058
(0.18)
Female * 5 -0.025
(0.18)
Female * 6 -0.018
(0.20)
Constat 0.685***
(0.00)
0.528***
(0.04)
0.537***
(0.04)
0.347***
(0.09)
0.331***
(0.10)
R-sqr 0.002 0.031 0.033 0.062 0.062
Sample 19769 19769 19769 19769 19769
BIC 25251 24812 24813 24260 24304
*p<0.05, **p<0.01, ***p<0.001
Model 7 also includes parental education. Coefficients on female and foreign is still significant. The coefficient on female has increased marginally, while the coefficient on foreign is more negative when controlling for parental education. The same explanation as for the dropout regression is suitable here as the coefficient on female should not change when controlling for parental education. The coefficient on foreign is still negative, indicating that
52
the association of being foreign on re-enrollment probability is negative compared to not being foreign. Mother’s education has positive coefficients on re-enrollment probability, with all coefficients being significant except from the coefficient on lower secondary education.
The coefficients increase for higher levels of education, and the biggest coefficient is when educational level is long university or college degree. The same pattern is evolving for father’s education. It is interesting to observe that the coefficients associated with re-enrollment probability for any level of father’s education is lower compared to any level of education for the mothers. Only the levels above upper secondary is significantly positive for father’s education, and the coefficient on lower secondary education is negative. The re-enrollment probability associated with having a mother with high university or college is 22.9% higher compared to when mothers have primary education as the highest obtained level. As a comparison having fathers with the same level of education is associated with a 12.5% higher probability of re-enrolling compared to fathers with primary education as
highest level of obtained education. The re-enrollment probability associated with having long university or college degree is twice as big from having a mother with the education
compared to having a father with the same level of education.
The next model, number 8, includes school region. The coefficient on female is slightly reduced and the coefficient on foreign is a little less negative, both still significant.
All coefficients on mother’s education is slightly decreased, but the signs and level of significance is not changed compared to the previous model. The biggest coefficient is long university or college degree, and the smallest coefficient is on lower secondary education. The same holds for father’s education, where all coefficients are reduced but the sign and level of significance is unchanged compared to the previous model. The biggest coefficient is
researcher degree, and the smallest coefficient is on lower secondary, where the coefficient is weakly negative. On school region the coefficients are positive for Mid and West, and
negative for East and North. None of the coefficients has significant associations on re-enrollment probability.
Model 9 includes grade averages from lower secondary school. The coefficient on female is still positive but has decreased and is not significant anymore. Foreign is still negative and significant, and a little bigger than before. For mother’s education the signs and level of significance is unchanged for all levels except from researcher that is not significant anymore. All coefficients are slightly reduced compared to the previous model, except from
53 the lower secondary education where the coefficient increased slightly. On father education none of the coefficients are significant anymore, and basic lower secondary has changed sign and is now a negative coefficient on re-enrollment probability. All of the coefficients have decreased compared to the previous model. The coefficients on East and North are still negative, but the coefficients on Mid and West are positive, with the coefficients being a little reduced from model 8. The grade averages above 2 are positive and significant on the
probability of re-enrolling, compared to the default of having grade average at 1. The coefficients are bigger for higher grade averages overall, but the highest coefficient of grade averages is having a mean grade average of 5. Having a grade average of 5 is associated with a 41.7% higher probability of becoming a re-enroller compared to having a grade average of 1. The coefficients are almost four times as big for grade average at 5 compared to a grade average at 2, implying a quadrupling in associated probability of re-enrolling when going from grade average 1 to 5, compared to going from 1 to 2.
In the complete model 10 the same interaction term is included as for the dropout regression. The coefficient on being foreign is still negative and significant on the probability of re-enrolling and is unchanged from the last model. The coefficient on female has increased and is still insignificant. Mother’s education level is basically unchanged compared to the last model, both in terms of coefficients, sign and level of significance. That means that the lowest and the highest level of mother’s education does not have a significant association with the probability of becoming a re-enroller compared to having primary education as the highest obtained level. The biggest significant coefficient on mother’s education is from long university or college degree, where an associated probability of re-enrolling is 16.1% higher compared to primary education. For father’s education none of the coefficient are still not significant, and the estimates are practically unchanged from before. The biggest coefficient on father’s education is from researcher education, where an associated probability of re-enrolling is 5.8% higher compared to primary education. None of the coefficients on school region are significant, and the estimates are the same as in model 9. Going to school in North and East is associated with a lower re-enrollment probability compared to being from South, and schooling in Mid and West is associated with a positive probability of re-enrolling after dropping out. The biggest coefficient is on schooling in region Mid, while the lowest coefficient is on schooling in East. There are positive and significant coefficients on grades, and the coefficients are bigger than in the previous model for all grade averages except 5 and 6. The highest significant coefficient on grades is a grade average at 5, while the smallest is a
54
grade average at 2. Having a grade average at 5 is associated with a 41% higher re-enrollment probability compared to having a grade average of 1. Having a grade average at 3 is
associated with a 21.4% higher re-enrollment probability compared to having a grade average of 1. The coefficient on grade average 5 is almost twice as big as the coefficient on grade average of 3, implying that students with grade averages of 5 has a twice as big re-enrollment association as the students with grade average of 3. The interaction between female and grades are not significant for the probability of re-enrolling, and all of the coefficients are negative. This implies that the association between average grades and the probability to re-enroll is not significantly different between males and females.