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probability. This implies that all education level for mothers above primary education is associated with a lower probability of being a dropout. On the other hand, any level of mother’s education is found to have a positive association on the probability to become a re-enroller. This means that an individual does not need to have a mother with the highest level of education in order to increase their probability of re-enrolling, but they only need
something higher than primary education. For father’s education no levels are significant on dropout probability, and all coefficients except from lower secondary is positively associated with re-enrollment probability. This implies that all levels of father’s education above lower secondary decreased the probability of being a dropout compared to primary education. Still having fathers with lower secondary education is associated with an increase in the dropout probability compared with primary education. This can be due to the fact that we do not observe the income or job status for the parents. This can be correlated with the educational level, and hence could the association of father’s education on dropout probability be
overestimated. There are findings in the literature that early school leavers with high-income fathers are overrepresented among the vocational trajectories leading to high and medium income, as well as the trajectory from general education to work followed by high education (Vogt et al., 2020). For the re-enrollment the two lowest levels of father’s education are associated with a lower re-enrollment probability compared with primary education, whereas the rest of the educational levels are associated with a higher re-enrollment probability relative to the default level of primary education. It is surprising to observe that some levels above primary education is associated with a negative re-enrollment probability.
The association of parental education on the probability for being a dropout student can be explained in many ways. First, pupils with highly educated parents can get help from home with homework and practicing before their tests. This can make schooling more motivating and successful since the pupil manage schooling. Second, parents that has been able themselves to take higher education may have a set of genetics that is passed on further to their children, making the pupils more receptive to gain skills and knowledge in school.
Third, we know that the social environment around an individual play a big role in what choices are made for oneself. If an individual were to leave school early the pupil may consult with their parents and their friends about the decision beforehand. Highly educated parents that themselves have experienced the gains from education would likely prefer their kids to also finish education. Markussen et al. (2008) found that different social classes attached different values to education, and that middle-class pupils were more likely to succeed in the
59 school system compared to working class pupils. Fourth are the expectations to take education bigger when the pupil is surrounded by parents and others with education themselves, making educational attainment a natural path to take on.
For pupils going to school in North, the least common level of highest obtained education for parents is to have long tertiary education. For all other regions, is the least common outcome to have parents with lower secondary education. Educational levels can have a connection to local labor markets and what opportunities that individuals have alternatively to education if they choose to drop out. For example, North is a region with a lot of fisheries and agriculture, where firms do not necessarily acquire higher education or competence in order to perform a job as a worker. Familial or personal connections can also outweigh the formal requirements. These kinds of jobs can be harder for a dropout in Oslo to find, since most of the jobs in a populated city have a lot of competition attached to it and often higher
qualifications accordingly.
The high dropout rates in the northern region, and in the council municipality of Finnmark especially, is also notable. Finnmark is the only council municipality that has approximately equal shares of dropouts and ordinary students in the sample, whereas the sample average is 35%. Distance to upper secondary school is not neglectable, and the broad number of educational directions one can take is scarce compared to a central council municipality like Oslo. One out of three students in Finnmark has to move away from their parents in order to complete upper secondary education (Ministry of Education, 2007). The report concludes that students that live far away from home have a 50% higher risk of leaving their studies early compared to students that had the possibility to stay at home (Støren et al., 2007). The amount of possible educational paths close to home is also scarcer in rural areas compared to cities.
I am not differentiating between the different educational paths in the analysis. The numbers reported on dropout and re-enrollers is for all the students on all study programs. The distribution of students attaining academic paths or vocational paths in Norway are
approximately equal from year to year, yet is it known from literature that the dropout rates are higher for the vocational programs. These differences between educational paths is not accounted for in this thesis, as the focus has been on the dropout problem in general across all educational paths.
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There are other factors that are likely to affect the movements in and out of school that is not included in this thesis. Parental income is not included in the analysis but can be
relevant for both schooling decisions and available resources for the individual in terms of hiring tutors and taking extra classes. Family structure and living situation is not included in the analysis but can have relevance for the decisions made. As presented before in the thesis are students living with their parents prone to better schooling outcomes compared to pupils that live by their selves away from their families.
Some characteristics can affect the decision to drop out from school but is not found in registry data. Inner motivation, schooling engagement, ambitions, relationship with teachers and bullying are factors attached to the schooling environment and the individual self that cannot be registered directly in such qualitative registries, but rather through qualitative methods. Bratholmen (2018) found a connection between low grades in primary school and absence in upper secondary education. The government introduced an absence limit in upper secondary education in 2016 (Utdanningsdirektoratet, 2020), but it is too early to conclude about correlations or causalities. High absence can be due to circumstances around the pupil that is not necessarily visible in registry data.
Measures introduced early in the educational paths is likely to better the rate of completion in upper secondary education. Dropping out is not a decision that an individual decided on overnight, but rather something that has developed over time. Markussen (2011) summarized what the research said about the factors that explained variation in dropouts and competence acquisition. Unequal social background, earlier school performance as well as academic and social engagement and identification with school were among the factors deemed most substantial. These three factors coincide with the findings in this analysis, with mother’s education and grades as the most important factors in hindering dropouts.
When evaluating educational attainment, we are subject to a selection bias that makes us unable to truly compare the returns for individuals. We cannot observe the same person both dropping out and not dropping out at the same time. This makes it possible that it is some kind of selection happening that makes some of the individuals dropping out in the first place. We know that individuals differ in interests, abilities, knowledge, skills and schooling engagement, and it is possible that some of these factors influences the schooling decision without being able to make count of it.
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