Political, cultural and social developments

A total of nine statements discussed the current driver ”Political, cultural and social developments”

(see Table4.8and Figs. A65 ‐ A71 of appendix A).

Table 4.8.Political, cultural and social developments: Number of statements by theme and block

Themes Block 1 Block 2 Block 3 Sum

Demography 1 2 3

Terms and conditions of work 1 1 2

Regulations and control over work life 2 2

Productivity, efficiency, and competitive advantages 1 1

Inclusiveness 1 1

Sum 4 5 0 9

Eight out of nine statements were rated by at least one person with ”strongly agree”, and all nine with ”agree”. Like observed in previous drivers, only few statements resulted in high levels of disagreement as the response ”strongly disagree” was only observed for three statements.

Figure 4.21. Political, social, and cultural: Psychosocial work environment Block 1: To what extent do you agree with the following statements?

21 70 7

2 43434343 0.790.790.790.79

N C

N: number of subjects that completed the item C: van der Eijk’s measure of consensus There will be more focus on diversity and inclusion in the

workplace

Percentage that reported the various response alternatives

Strongly disagree Disagree Neither agree or disagree Agree Strongly agree

4.2.6.2 Political, cultural and social developments, work environment, and health

Six statement within the present driver were identified to discuss work environment and health.

Political, cultural and social developments: The psychosocial work environment (Fig.4.21) As shown in Fig. 4.21, one statement (”There will be more focus on diversity and inclusion in the workplace”) was found to relate to the psychosocial work environment. This statement belonged to ”Block 1” and has a consensus rating of 0.79. No statements were identified to discuss the psychosocial work environment in the context of the present driver for ”Block 2” or ”Block 3”.

Political, cultural and social developments: Physical environment, accidents, risks, and other aspects of the work environment (Fig.4.22) Five statements were found to reflect the physical environment, accidents, risks, and other aspects of the work environment for ”Block 2: Agreement and impact (consequences)” (Fig.4.22). Consensus ratings ranged from 0.79 for the statement ”It will be possible to attain a stronger gender balance in the labor market (more female leaders, more men in disciplines traditionally dominated by women)”, and a rating of 0.5 for the statement ”There will be an increased awareness of gender differences in the significance of the work environment”.

Twenty‐one percent of respondents disagreed, while 7% strongly agreed with the latter statement.

Political, cultural and social developments: Health No statements were classified under ”health”

for the political, cultural and social developments topic.

4.2.6.3 Norway and Denmark

Like for previous drivers, the Norwegian and Danish sub‐panels mostly responded in similar ways to the statements pertaining to the present driver. There was only statistically significant difference with regard to the potential negative consequences of increased requirements to remain in work

Figure 4.22. Political, social, and cultural: Physical environment, risks, accidents, and other statements regarding the work environment

Block 2: To what extent do you agree with the following statements, and to what extent do you think there will be positive and/or negative consequences for the work environment?

71

N: number of subjects that completed the item C: van der Eijk’s measure of consensus

Neg/Pos: Percentage that answered ’some’ or ’considerable’ negative/positive consequences Eval: Overall classification of consequences

Neutral: <70 percent rated ’some’ or ’considerable’ negative or positive consequences NA: No agreement ‐ Less than 50 percent rated ’Agree’ or ’Strongly agree’

There will be an increased awareness of gender differences in the significance of the work environment Legislation and regulations will be more complex Working conditions will to a lesser extent be regulated and controlled Requirements to remain in work longer will increase It will be possible to attain a stronger gender balance in the labor market (more female leaders, more men in disciplines traditionally dominated by women)

Percentage that reported the various response alternatives

Strongly disagree Disagree Neither agree or disagree Agree Strongly agree

(see Appendix B, Table B9), where the experts in Norway seemed less inclined to expect such negative consequences.

4.2.6.4 The different panels of the study

No statistically significant differences were observed between the panels pertaining to this driver.

4.2.6.5 Suggested solutions from the experts

A total of 40 concrete future actions suggestions from the expert panel reflected the theme of political/social and societal change. Suggestions pertaining to this theme reflect the topics of leg‐

islation for new forms of employment, the role of the social partners, and crime. Example sugges‐

tions regarding legislation include simplification and clarification of legislation pertaining to the work environment, implying there is a belief that current legislation is overly complex. The social partners should facilitate and strengthen regulations on party cooperation and encourage party

collaboration, and they must work to increase the degree of organization in unions. On combat‐

ing workplace crime and illegal working conditions, the authorities are encouraged to work more systematically to strengthen international cooperation and collaboration to detect and combat workplace crime and violations of work environment regulations, and to actively fight temporary and frivolous actors.

4.2.6.6 Political, cultural and social developments: Overall summary and conclusion

The nine statements addressed issues of equality, legislation, and work‐related crime. While agreement was generally high, relatively high levels of disagreement were observed for state‐

ments regarding legislation and control (”Working conditions will to a lesser extent be regulated and controlled”, ”Legislation and regulations will be more complex”), gender issues (”There will be an increased awareness of gender differences in the significance of the work environment”) and social security (”More workers will experience a lack of social security at work (e.g. entitlement to parental leave, vacation, sick pay, etc.”)’, with 21%–34% of the experts either disagreeing or strongly disagreeing. Consensus was mostly medium to high, with one statement receiving low consensus and the remaining consensus scores ranging 0.42 to 0.79. The highest levels of con‐

sensus were achieved for statements about diversity. Most experts agreed that both gender and cultural diversity, and therefore the focus on such topics, will increase in the coming years.

Interestingly, while only few (nine) statements on the topic emerged from the first two Del‐

phi rounds, the experts seemed to have many thoughts and concrete suggestions on how to deal with issues pertaining to the topic. These suggestions seemed to focus mainly on legislation – some experts seemed to imply current legislation may be overly complex. However, the state‐

ment ”Legislation and regulations will be more complex” received a consensus score of 0.55; 28%

of the experts either disagreed or strongly disagreed with the statement, yet 26% either strongly agreed or agreed. Hence, while some experts believe regulations will become more complex and perhaps hard to follow for workers and employers, many experts also reject this notion. It is pos‐

sible this difference is a result of the different experts’ views on the complexity of already existing regulations.

4.2.7 Other statements