Human life and health

6.3.3.1 Civil protection and emergency planning The exact scope, severity and pace of future cli-mate change impacts are difficult to predict, still it is clear that climate change will affect societal safety. Specific examples include:

• Increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as storms, floods and droughts will threaten human lives and health, material assets and vital societal func-tions.

• Both changed extreme weather events and a gradual change in the average climate will increase the vulnerability of critical infra-structure.

• Global effects of climate change can have an indirect impact on societal safety in Norway.

For example, intensifying droughts or floods can result in food insecurity, economic col-lapse and human suffering, which in turn may lead to cross-border migration and the spread of harmful organisms.³⁰

Climate change will thus challenge society’s ordi-nary emergency management capacity.

From 2006 to 2009, The Norwegian Directorate for Civil protection (DSB) prepared a National Risk and Vulnerability Report (NSBR) as a basis for follow-up of cross-sectoral social security work.

In 2012, DSB further developed methodology that enabled analyses of different types of events across sectors and areas of responsibility. From 2012 to 2014, the report was called National Risk Picture (NRB), and included a selection of likely

changed its name to “Crisis Scenarios” - analyses of serious events that may hit Norway.

The “Crisis Scenarios” has concluded that extreme weather and landslides are among the hazards most likely to affect Norway, with potentially severe consequences for our citizens.

Large forest fires can lead to great economic loss and damage to forestry, and may represent dan-ger for life and health, housing and critical infra-structure. Norwegian Centre for Climate Services concludes that in particular the Southern and Eastern parts of Norway will have an increase in forest fire risk in the coming century.³¹ In Eastern Norway, changes in climate could lead to dou-bling of the number of days with forest fire risk by 2050.³²

BOX 17: Rainfall in a city

The scenario "rainfall in a city" illustrates how storm rain and storm surge can cause major damage and contingency challenges to cities and towns in the Oslo Fjord area. Cli-mate change will cause such events to occur more frequently and with greater force and intensity than they have done so far. The loca-tion of the scenario is the city of Drammen.

The municipality, state regional actors, NVE and Meteorological Institute have been key participants in the preparation of the scena-rio. The scenario highlights issues of great importance for the development of preven-tive measures and preparedness for areas that may be affected by such events.

BOX 18: Warning of rockfall

The scenario "Warning of rockfall" into a fjord highlight an event of such a large format that it will be a national disaster that challenges central as well as regional and local authori-ties. The analysis gives an overview of challen-ges, and provides a good basis for planning and preparedness. A key issue in the scenario is warning and evacuation of the population.

The analysis has been prepared in coopera-tion with the County Governor of Møre and Romsdal, the municipalities in the region and relevant state actors.

BOX 19: Storm in the Inner Oslofjord Storms can cause major damage to forests.

DSB has in its risk picture for 2014 "Storm in the Inner Oslofjord » this as a scenario. This is an adverse event in the "extreme weather" risk area is a powerful storm in a densely popula-ted area. Such a storm could go further north and hit central forest areas, and will be able to destroy approximately one million acres of forest. A storm in this area and with this wind speed will statistically occur once every 50 years. It will often coincide with heavy preci-pitation, but rarely with a strong storm surge.

Climate change can increase the likelihood of such events in the future, since more frequ-ent and powerful storms and precipitation are expected in the future, and they are also expe-cted in new locations.

6.3.3.2 Health

A warmer climate may affect public health in a number of ways, but the main effect will be to intensify the health risks posed by today’s climate.

categories, impacts on the raw water and water treatment plants, and impacts on the distribution infrastructure.

Food- and water-borne infections are among the commonest infections both in Norway and in other parts of the world and are considered to be particularly sensitive to climate change.

The prevalence of communicable diseases may increase as conditions become more suitable for infective agents such as ticks and mosquitoes.

A longer and more intense pollen season may aggravate the symptoms of people who suffer from allergic diseases.

Climate change may also have indirect impacts on health if for example medical transport ser-vices are blocked by damage to transport or other critical infrastructure caused by extreme weather events. However, climate change is not expected to cause any great changes in mortality in Norway.

6.3.3.3 Infrastructure and buildings

Infrastructure is affected by climate, and through direct exposure to the weather, the infrastructure will be exposed to climate change such as changes in precipitation and temperature and increased frequencies of natural hazards. The vulnerability of infrastructures varies, but the need for mainte-nance will be a major common challenge in con-nection with climate change.

At the same time, different types of infrastruc-ture are mutually dependent, further increasing

tioning telecommunication system to perform efficient repairs and restoration of the supply.

This mutual dependency increases vulnerability to climate change, making society even more vulnerable.

Vulnerability to climate change varies between different infrastructure areas. According to the NOU 2010:10 Adapting to a changing climate, the power supply has a relatively high adaptive capacity, which counters the fact that the sector is highly exposed to climate change. The overall vulnerability is, therefore, relatively low. Careful area planning and sustainable urban drainage systems remain a key strategy to avoid damage to buildings and infrastructure due to excessive runoff. The adaptive capacity of the water utility sector is, in the opinion of the NOU commit-tee, low, and the vulnerability is correspond-ingly high (NOU 2010:10). The assessments of the transport sector and buildings provide a more complex picture of adaptive capacity and vulner ability.

A backlog in maintenance is a shared challenge for large portions of the infrastructure and build-ings. Climate change will increase the need for water sensitive area planning, continuous mainte-nance and increase the challenges related to the maintenance backlog, which is particularly true for transport, buildings, water supply and urban wastewater services.

6.3.3.4 Transport

The challenges related to the maintenance back-log will intensify with climate change. Road and

to wave erosion and overflow, which may result in erosion damage and traffic disruptions. It may also increase the risk of water flowing into underground tunnels with low-lying entrances.

Furthermore, increased amounts of water will expose road fill and bridge foundations to more strain and erosion.

The maritime infrastructure – in the form of waterways, navigation guidance (lights and bea-cons), harbours and the infrastructure in har-bours (quays, etc.) – is vital for sea transport.

This infrastructure is exposed to rising sea levels, increased ocean acidification, storm surge levels, and generally harsher weather effects. Climate change will increase the strain and weathering on maritime infrastructure.

All Norwegian airports will be affected to var-ying degrees and in different ways by climate change. Climate affects both air traffic and the physical infrastructure. Many Norwegian airports are located near the coast on flat or reclaimed land near the sea or open water, making them vulnerable to impacts from higher sea levels, storms and storm surges. Safety zones, lighting facilities and buildings at several airports could be exposed to erosion and will be vulnerable to climate change. Increased precipitation can make it more important and more demanding to drain runoff water, and more frequent temperature variations around 0° C will be an additional chal-lenge in some places as regards controlling the friction conditions on runways and taxiways, but less challenging at other airports.

6.3.3.5 Water and wastewater systems

Without climate change adaptation and proper maintenance, climate change will increase the risk of disruptions in the water supply and urban

tion of wastewater treatment services can have serious consequences for human health and the environment.

Many water supply and wastewater treatment plants are located near rivers and along the coast, and may be exposed to floods, flood slides, rising sea levels and storm surges. Higher temperatures, combined with greater precipi-tation and runoff intensity may have negative effects on raw water quality. More erosion from the catchment areas may lead to an increased prevalence of infectious matter, environmental toxins, nutrients and organic matter in the raw water. Intensified precipitation events can cre-ate problems for existing storm wcre-ater drainage systems and increase the risk of drinking water pipes becoming immersed in sewage-contami-nated water.

Fluctuating temperatures may cause unstable ground and lead to more disruptions to pipe-works.

6.3.3.6 Urban storm water

Storm water in this context means runoff due to precipitation or meltwater from impermeable surfaces such as rooftops and roads. Climate projections indicate a trend towards more, and more intense, precipitation in Norway, which will result in more storm water runoff in urban areas that may lead to urban flooding. This may cause serious damage to buildings and other infrastruc-ture. The Official Norwegian Report Adapting to a changing climate (NOU 2010:10) stresses that cli-mate change, with higher total precipitation and more frequent intense precipitation events, will make urban storm water management a more challenging task.

from infiltrating naturally into the ground. Urban storm water is traditionally channelled through the municipal urban wastewater treatment sys-tem or in separate storm water drains that may discharge directly into nearby river systems.

During intense rainfall, the volume of storm water entering the sewer system may exceed the sys-tem's capacity leading to untreated storm is often so high that some of the mixed storm water and wastewater has to be discharged directly to the sea or a river instead of being treated first. This can contaminate beaches and drinking water and pose a risk to public health and the environ-ment. Excessive volumes of storm water can also flood buildings, damage infrastructure and con-taminate drinking water, resulting in substantial costs and possibly threatening life and health.

Failure to manage storm water properly through the existing sewer systems is already resulting in major damage.

6.3.3.7 Power supply

Norway’s power supply is primarily based on renewable energy, dominated by hydropower, and it will thus be impacted directly by climate change. Climate change will lead to increased precipitation, but also increased evapotranspira-tion due to increased temperatures. Even if the magnitude of the increase is very uncertain, the hydropower production potential is expected to increase. River flow is expected to increase more in the winter, and could be reduced in the sum-mer because of earlier snowmelt and increased evapotranspiration. A detailed study of climate change effects on the hydropower system in the Glomma river basin (Beisland et al., 2017)

indi-efit the most from the river flow becoming more evenly distributed over the year.

The power supply system is designed to with-stand climate and natural disasters. However, hydropower structures may be challenged in case of extreme floods, and weather conditions are a major cause of the faults and disruptions that do occur in the distribution system including regional and national grids, e.g. caused by trees falling over and cutting the power lines. Expected increases in extreme weather events will increase the risk of damage at various types of power supply infrastructure, unless appropriate climate change adaptation measures are implemented.

6.3.3.8 Buildings

Increased precipitation, exposure to moisture and changes in the wind patterns are the key climate variables that determine a building’s vulnerability. Moisture problems resulting from more frequent and more intense precipitation will be the greatest threat in a changed climate.

The effect of moisture is reinforced by rising sea levels, increased and more intense precipitation and increased floods, landslides and avalanches in a changed climate.

The risk of rot in exterior wood constructions above ground is dependent to a great extent on local climate conditions. More parts of the coun-try will be exposed owing to climate change.

More extreme events, such as storm surges, landslides, avalanches and floods, will entail a risk to buildings in exposed locations. Some

loca-6.3.3.9 Cultural heritage

Rising sea levels, increased storm surges and increased coastal erosion are a threat to coastal settlement and cultural heritage objects in vul-nerable areas. More precipitation and increased moisture will lead to more rot and fungal growth in historic buildings. All building materials are exposed to degradation over time, and climate conditions are crucial to how fast this will take place. Most materials break down faster in a warmer and more humid climate.

In addition to the gradual changes that take place over a long period of time, climate change will cause more extremes, more storm water, land slides, erosion and more floods that can cause acute damage to historical buildings and other cultural monuments.

Growth season for plants and trees is extended when the climate gets warmer and wetter, creat-ing greater challenges for owners and managers of cultural monuments and landscapes.

6.3.4 Business and other industry 6.3.4.1 Introduction

Climate change in Norway will have a direct impact on industries that base their activities on natural resources, such as agriculture and forestry, fishing and aquaculture. Other businesses and industries may be indirectly affected by vulnerabilities in other sectors, such as interrupted power supply.

Utilising the opportunities that may emerge will also require adaptive measures to enable these opportunities to be realised.

6.3.4.2 Agriculture and forestry

In areas where lower summer precipitation does

quickly. In addition the productive forests will expand both to higher altitudes and northwards throughout the country. There will be significant regional differences, with forests in Southern and Eastern Norway potentially facing drought stress and during a transition period, it appears that the growing season in the interior of Finnmark and Troms may become somewhat shorter.

The largest threat to the continued health and vital-ity of Norwegian forests will be increasing attacks by native pests, as well as non-native organisms that may be able to establish viable populations in Norway as a result of climate change.

Without ground frost for much of the year and with less snow cover, operating conditions will become more difficult using existing technology.

The main pattern in climate projections for Norwegian agriculture is higher temperatures and precipitation. Increases in rainfall may cause problems to field operations, like thinning and harvesting. Increase in evapotranspiration as a result of higher summer temperatures may, however, also cause drought in certain periods.

In addition to such changes in abiotic factors, new pests and diseases may arise that reduce productivity in plant production as well as animal husbandry.

Climate change may also result in more damage caused by freeze–thaw cycles, changes in wind patterns, heightened fire risk due to drought and increased erosion as a result of more precipita-tion, with a risk of nutrients being washed out of the soil, causing environmental stresses. Climate change also has impact on the conditions for rein-deer husbandry, see section 6.5.3.

one of the world’s leading exporters of fish and seafood products. There is uncertainty linked to various aspects of climate change and the poten-tial consequences for the marine environment.

The fishing fleet has very high adaptive capacity since the ocean-going fishing fleet has an exten-sive range. The traditional coastal fleet on the other hand may be more exposed to climate change owing to its more limited range or poten-tial change of target species.

Climate change along the Norwegian coastline will reflect the changes that are expected to occur in the open sea. Coastal areas and the continental shelf are important spawning grounds for many fish stocks on which climate change may have an impact. Several of the coastal cod stocks have declined significantly over the past decades. A number of factors are probably involved in this, one of which may be climate change. A plan for rebuilding coastal cod stocks has already been adopted. It has been suggested that a combina-tion of higher water temperature, eutrophicacombina-tion and sediment deposition explains the loss of sugar kelp forests (important as a nursery area for coastal cod and other species) from many areas along the Skagerrak coast and the south-west-ern coast of Norway. Climate change will have a number of impacts on wild stocks of anadromous salmonids at different stages of their life cycle. A higher water temperature may result in changes in the numbers and distribution of important preyspecies for anadromous salmonids in coastal waters and the open sea, and of disease organ-isms and parasites such as sea lice. On the other hand, higher precipitation will increase water flow

makes the species and the various populations more robust for changes in the living environ-ment brought about by climate change. Higher precipitation will also result in more runoff from land, which may lead to sediment deposition and pollution and subsequently to more frequent algal blooms, sometimes of toxic algae.

Higher sea temperatures may cause a shift in the distribution of marine organisms, with pop-ulations making a general migration northwards.

The overall productivity of the boreal species of fish is expected to increase in the northernmost fishing areas, while the productivity of the Arctic species is expected to decline in the same areas.

Overall, climate change over the remainder of the 21st century may increase fish resources in Norwegian waters. There are however two factors that may counteract these predictions. One of them is associated with natural climate variability, which may dominate over anthropogenic climate change and result in a somewhat colder marine climate. The other major uncertainty factor is ocean acidification, a process taking place simul-taneously with, and to some extent independently of, climate change. Acidification creates a more hostile environment for calcifying organisms.

Temperature is of vital importance to the aquacul-ture industry, as it affects factors such as growth rates, algal blooming and disease. In the long term, an increase in sea temperature therefore has the potential to result in significant structural changes in terms of the species farmed, the best production areas and siting structure, and

occur-6.3.4.4 Petroleum production

Oil and gas production on the Norwegian conti-nental shelf is significantly affected by the weather and climate. The technology used in Norway for

Oil and gas production on the Norwegian conti-nental shelf is significantly affected by the weather and climate. The technology used in Norway for

In document Norway’s Seventh National Communication (sider 172-179)