Other emissions

Emissions of long-range air pollutants, nitrogen oxides (NO_X), sulphur dioxide (SO₂), ammo-nia (NH₃), fine particulate matter (PM_2,5) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) are regulated under the Gothenburg Protocol. These pollutants are spread across borders via the atmosphere and give rise to, inter alia, acidification, particle concentrations that are detrimental to health, as well as the formation of tropospheric ozone.

In 2015, Norway met its commitment under the Gothenburg Protocol with regard to the gases NO_X, SO₂ and NMVOC, see Figure 5.2. In 2012, new emission commitments were negotiated under the said Protocol. These commitments will apply from 2020 and have been determined by refer-ence to the emission level in 2005. In December 2016, new guidelines for the calculation of emissions from the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution were implemented in the emissions account in Norway. The basis for the calculations has been expanded and includes, inter alia, new sources of agricultural emissions, which mean that nitrogen oxide (NO_X), NMVOC and ammonia (NH₃) emissions have been revised upwards.

Figure 5.2 Emissions of long-range transboundary air pollutants falling within the scope of the Gothenburg Protocol. 1,000 tonnes.

0 50 100 150 200 250

1990 2000 2010 2020 20300

20 40 60 80 100

Long-range transboundary air pollution¹

NH3

(right axes) NOX

(left axes)

0 100 200 300 400

1990 2000 2010 2020 20300

100 200 300 400 A. Emissions of NO_Xand NH₃ B. Emissions of SO₂and NMVOC

SO2

NMVOC

1 The squares show the emission commitments under the Gothenburg Protocol.

Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Environment Agency and Ministry of Finance.

Since 1990, nitrogen oxide (NO_X) emissions have declined by 23 per cent, as a result of the exhaust gas requirements having been tightened in sev-eral rounds. Domestic shipping emissions have declined considerably since 2007 as the result of, inter alia, measures funded with support from the Business Sector’s NOx Fund and the gradual phase-out of older engines with high emissions.

From 2012, fisheries emissions have also declined.

The reduction in domestic shipping and fisheries emissions is probably related to a changeover to less emission-intensive fuel and the adoption of new technology. It may also be the result of

petroleum activities have increased by more than 80 per cent since 1990 and accounted for just over 30 per cent of overall NO_X emissions in 2015.

NO_X emissions are projected to decline to 117,000 tonnes in 2030. The estimated decline has to do with lower road traffic emissions as the result of stricter exhaust gas requirements, especially for heavy goods vehicles, and a steep increase in the number of zero- and low-emission vehicles. The use of biofuels may result in higher NO_X emissions.

In addition, emissions from oil and gas activities are expected to decline somewhat after 2020.

Table 5.4 Emissions of long-range transboundary air pollutants. 1,000 tonnes

1990 2000 2005 2015 2020 2030

NO_X 199.9 211.6 205.5 153.2 142.1 117.5

SO₂ 52.3 27.2 24.1 16.4 15.7 15.4

NMVOC 301.7 390.9 229.8 157.0 148.7 136.6

NH₃ 23.7 25.3 26.7 26.7 25.5 26.1

Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Environment Agency and Ministry of Finance.

Norway has under the Gothenburg Protocol committed to reducing NO_X emissions by 23 per cent by 2020, relative to the emission level in 2005. In the current account this means an emis-sions cap for 2020 in excess of 156,000 tonnes.

Consequently, NO_X emissions are estimated to be well below the commitment in 2020.

In 2015, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) emissions were a full 60 per cent lower than in 2001, which was the year emissions peaked.

The reduced NMVOC emissions are primarily the result of lower emissions from the loading and storage of crude oil off shore. In the projections, NMVOC emissions decline to 136,600 tonnes in 2030. Compared to the previous projections, emis-sions have been adjusted upwards by 22,000 tonnes in 2020. The upwards adjustment is linked to the revision of historical data, as well as to petroleum sector emissions having turned out to be higher than previously assumed. The commitment under the Gothenburg Protocol calls for emissions in 2020 to be less than 138,000 tonnes. Consequently, esti-mated emissions are higher than the commitment in 2020, but further reductions bring emissions below the commitment before 2030.

Sulphur dioxide (SO₂) emissions have declined by almost 70 per cent since 1990. Since 2007, emis-sions have been lower than the commitment in

ued modest decline in SO₂ emissions. Emissions are well below the Gothenburg commitment for 2020 of 21,700 tonnes.

The emissions account for ammonia (NH₃) has previously indicated that Norway was meeting its commitment in the first Gothenburg period of 23,000 tonnes. In 2013, emission figures back to 1990 were revised upwards by 10–20 per cent as the result of a new calculation method for emis-sions from livestock manure. In 2015, emisemis-sions were 26,700 tonnes. Emissions are estimated to remain stable at around 26,000 tonnes towards 2030, whilst the Gothenburg commitment for 2020, which is based on emissions in 2005, is 26,400 tonnes. Norway is thereby well poised to meet the commitment for 2020. There is consid-erable uncertainty as to how the discontinuation of export subsidies for cheese will affect emis-sions over the next few years.

Upon the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol in 2012, Norway committed to reducing fine partic-ulate matter (PM_2,5) emissions by 30 per cent in 2020, compared to the level in 2005. In the current emissions account, this corresponds to an annual emissions cap of about 27,000 tonnes from 2020.

No projections have been prepared for these emissions as part of the macroeconomic analysis.

Projections of PM emissions will be updated

5.2.4 Fuel sold to ships and aircraft engaged in