Differentiating Factor: Predictability

With services the consumer likes to know what to expect, to have an agreed upon transaction, and for the provider to stick to it. The Reliability determinant of Service Quality is given as involving “consistency of performance and dependability,” the “Communication”

determinant meaning such things as “keeping the customer informed” and “explaining the service itself”, etc. When getting on an airplane, we like to know where and when that plane will arrive. Many customers make a considerable effort to pre-book in order to secure a window seat, a particular in-flight meal or to make sure they choose an airline that has individual on-demand video available. Surprises in the form of unexpected events, the luggage getting lost, a thunderstorm or a strike resulting in delays, unexpected layovers or rerouting of the flight would, by the over-whelming majority of consumers, be far from appreciated. Suspense and surprises during air travel, as with other services, are generally not considered exciting and fun, only a hassle.

With experiences, on the other hand, it is often better not to know exactly what to expect, because knowing too much can easily ruin that sense of surprise, fun, wonder and excitement a consumer hopes to gain from the experience. Several of the trigger factors creating experiential value – as identified and discussed in The Star Experience Model, such as Novelty, Challenge, Suspense & Surprise, and Storytelling & Dramatic structure – are to some degree related to and depending on an element of keeping them unpredictable rather than too predictable. People feel the excitement of suspense mostly when the outcome is uncertain, when you don’t know what will happen next. A challenge is similarly only a challenge as long as it is unclear whether the goal can be reached. Things are perceived of as novel because they are, to some extent, unfamiliar and you therefore don’t know exactly what

to expect. Hence, these types of experience offerings – by their very nature – demand a certain level of unpredictability. If it were known in detail how an event would unfold – all the detail of what would be presented – then this would prevent the creation of suspense and surprise, the feeling of challenge, for the content to appear novel and surprising, and for curiosity to be aroused. It is the not knowing the whole story that creates the room for us to wonder about what will happen next. It is the not knowing – the uncertainty of the outcome – that drives us to follow and imagine what will happen next in any plot, play or movie.

Suspense and surprise keep us on our toes and focused. It is the same thing that keeps a dedicated football fan on the edge of his seat throughout a good match. Neither at the move theater nor at the football station do we want to know the result beforehand. Going to a football match is not the same if the winner is already known; going to see a new movie you don’t want someone to tell you how it all ends.

…if the outcome had been given, if you knew beforehand that it would end 2-0, or something like that, what would that have done to it?

No, that would have ruined the excitement, it would. That would have been the same as… I enjoy watching the Derby, but it is… if I know that… to record a game and knowing the result, I can do that, but it’s no fun then. It truly isn’t. You never know when it’s going to happen – will it happen in the 90^th minute? Will it happen in the first minute? When will something happen? Right. So that… no that is the alpha and omega. Yes.

(Football match, male 33, Norwegian)

The upside of the suspense is of course the raised level of arousal, the equally intense joyful thrill of the experience when indeed all goes well. Surprises affect our attention and raise our level of arousal. When surprised or startled, the consumer’s attention will immediately be focused on understanding and interpreting the unexpected event. Playing on the unexpected is an important factor in making jokes and humor work as well. When arranging for experiences – whether they build on humor or excitement – only enough information to evoke interest should be revealed, while at the same time holding on tightly to key content or else losing the impact of an otherwise good punch line.

The fears and risks involved in “not knowing what will happen”, trying to overcome a challenge, etc. can contribute to raising the adrenalin level and thus make the overall experience more intense and the sense of mastery greater once the subject finally succeeds.

Emotions such as fear and surprise may therefore help make commercial experiences stand out as special or unique events, different from the toils of ordinary life, which may for – consumers in affluent societies – often appear as rather predictable and safe. Hence, the value had from experiential consumption regularly increases when (the right amount of) surprises and “scary bits” are thrown into the mix.

Let me return to the data and some of the question I asked regarding services. This is what one person (German male of 33) answered relating to what mattered to him when ordering a take-away pizza:

- It should arrive hot or warm. It should be made of ingredients with decent (and of a) certain quality, which sometime it’s not, and apart from that, it should generally just be what I expect it to be. It’s a pizza, it should taste like a pizza. No experiments on that. So I just really expect it to be convenient.

Another subject (Norwegian female student of 21), answered much along the same lines, but here the topic got elaborated on somewhat more:

When you order take-away pizza, what matters to you then, for you to be happy with what you have ordered?

- It should get there on time. There should be nothing wrong with the order actually…

And wrong, that would be…?

-Well if they take… if they have like forgotten the pepperoni… That would be….!

So, if they decide to be a bit creative and assume that you might want olives instead, to surprise you a bit?

- No. No, that kind of thing should not happen! Because when I order pizza, it’s because I am hungry, so then that would… then they can’t take any liberties like that, No!

Other things the pizza people should think about? (to make you happy)

- It’s good when one can order the pizza over the Internet. I like that because on the phone I am often not able to catch what they are actually saying, and then I feel stupid if I don’t hear what they are saying. So I prefer if there are other ways to order than over the phone. I often feel that people are angry with me… so then I prefer that.

So it makes it easier for you to order the food that way, you get to note down the topping and so?

-Yes it’s more specific that way, and then you can fix those kinds of things.

And that is good?

-Yes that is very good, I like that.

This is the same girl by the way, who wanted her karaoke evening to be unstructured and full of surprises, being very clear that she did not like the thought of her karaoke party being too much of a planned event. Furthermore, when asked whether her enjoyment of singing at karaoke evenings said something about her, she answered:

- Yes. I would characterize myself as often rather adventuresome and not afraid to goof around and a make fool out of myself. And that I like showing off and being in the spotlight in a way. So yes, I would say that it does.

For the karaoke evening she preferred an evening with no sense of structure and feeling adventurous and unafraid of going on stage and making a fool of herself. When using a service to get take-away food, however, she becomes very specific and meticulous about how to do the ordering so that the pizza she gets will be just right, and she gets uncomfortable with the thought of any possible misunderstandings while placing her order over the phone, or of feeling stupid and people getting upset with her. The contrast with what she prefers in the two settings is sizable and illustrative. However, one better be careful about evaluating this to be about a confused and inconsistent young girl. Rather she may just as well be interpreted as

being a very modern consumer and being conscious and confident about wanting quite different things in a service context versus an experience setting.

Proposition C: A large degree of predictability increases the value of a service, while too much predictability easily can diminish or ruin the overall value of an experience.