and technology areas
3.1.1
STRATEGIC REVIEW OF 11 THEMATIC AND TECHNOLOGY AREAS
The Energi21 board’s selection of priority focus areas and rec-ommendations for measures to be implemented are based in large part on an analysis of 11 thematic and technology areas. The assessment encompasses factors deemed to be of importance for designating the priority focus areas. The stra-tegic review of thematic and technology areas is presented in Section 3.2.
In its strategic analysis the Energi21 board describes the factors it considers particularly relevant for Norwegian actors, the country’s energy supply, and industrial development. In addition, it identifies the following key elements:
◊ industrial ambitions
◊ strategic research areas and objectives
◊ measures for implementation.
Each thematic and technology area has been analysed in relation to how much it contributes towards achieving the Energi21 strategy’s primary objectives, its state of techno-logical maturity, and the estimated time period needed for its realisation on the market. A simplified diagram has been prepared for each thematic and technology area following the set-up in Figure 3 below. The colours of the technology arrows indicate the degree of a technology’s maturity, i.e. whether a given technology can be implemented by 2025 (green arrow) or whether current research challenges will delay implemen-tation of the technology until after 2025 (orange arrow).
The relative thickness of an arrow represents a technology’s potential contribution towards achieving the Energi21 strat-egy’s primary objectives. A thick arrow corresponds to high potential, a thinner arrow indicates moderate potential.
At a Sira Kvina hydropower plant. Photo: Sira Kvina kraftselskap
23 ENERGI21 – STRATEGIC ANALYSIS This schematic representation is an oversimplification,
of course. Even for technologies that are already mature and competing in the market, it will normally be research chal-lenges and room for improvement. In such cases research activities are typically driven more by technological advances and further cost cutting more than market implementation.
Research activity to enhance industrial competitiveness in existing markets can lead to significant value creation.
Moreover, political decisions and changes to instruments can either shorten or lengthen time to market.
3.1.2
METHOD OF COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
With the strategic review of thematic and technology areas as its starting point, the board has thoroughly analysed each area in relation to its potential to achieve relevant Energi21 objectives, its degree of technological maturity, and the esti-mated time period needed for its market implementation. In addition, each area has been analysed in relation to its
over-all significance for the further development of Norway as an energy nation and the country’s competitive advantages (nat-ural resources, business sector and competency) in future energy markets. The board’s method of analysis is illustrated below.
Each phase of the innovation chain is vital for achieving successful commercialisation of results, and this has been emphasised in all of the strategic analyses. Technology areas that are relatively mature, for instance, may provide a quick route that goes far in realising certain ambitions in the energy sector. Intensive technology-oriented R&D activities are not considered a catalysing factor in areas such as these; what may be needed here is market-oriented instruments. This means that these thematic and technology areas may not be given highest priority for research activities.
Technological maturity illustrates potential for advances in technology, which in practice often means potential for cost reductions and increased efficiency.
Objective 1
Objective 2
Objective 3
Increased value creation on the basis of national energy resources and utilisation of energy Energy restructuring through efficient use of energy and increased flexibility in energy systems Development of internationally competitive industry and expertise in the energy sector TECHNOLOGY N
TECHNOLOGY N
Figure 3 Technology area’s contribution towards achieving the Energi21 strategy’s primary objectives. Maturity is indicated by colour: green means mature, orange means implementation is delayed by technological advances still needed. Arrow thickness reflects potential contribution, with thick indicating high potential towards achieving the objectives.
Grouping by relevance to objectives
Assessment of each thematic area’s potential for advancing the
objectives
Estimation of time period needed for realisation in the market
Assessment of Norwegian competitive advantages and potential to succeed in future
energy markets
Assessment of technology area’s overall significance for the continued
further development of Norway as an energy nation in terms of security
of energy supply, value creation and knowledge needs
Assessment of technological maturity and need for instruments (research, development, demonstration, market
introduction)
Figure 4 The process and assessment criteria applied in the overall strategic comparison of thematic and technology areas.
ENERGI21 National strategy for research, development, demonstration and commercialisation of new energy technology 24
COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES
Throughout the analysis process the Energi21 board has attached great importance to the extent to which Norwegian actors have specific competitive advantages that enhance the potential and probability of success. This is essential to achieving success in international markets, and efforts should target the areas where such advantages exist. This is reflected in the analysis of each thematic and technology area and has been incorporated into the designation of priority focus areas.
Strategic diagrams
The results of this strategic analysis are depicted in diagrams showing each thematic and technology area’s position in terms of the various assessment criteria. A separate diagram has been compiled for each of the three primary objectives of the Energi21 strategy:
1. Increased value creation on the basis of national energy resources and utilisation of energy.
2. Energy restructuring with the development of new tech-nology for limiting energy
3. Development of internationally competitive expertise and industrial activities in the energy sector.
The diagrams illustrate the following criteria:
◊ Potential: This indicates a technology area’s potential (high or moderate) relative to the relevant objective.
◊ Technological maturity/technology area’s position in the innovation chain: This indicates a technology area’s current phase of development/position in the innovation chain.
◊ Time perspective: This indicates the estimated time period needed for the technology area to develop into a competitive industry (green arrow = short term, orange arrow = long term).
It is important to note that technologies that have already been established in the market (indicated by a green arrow in the diagram) may still be in need of research activity to strengthen their competitiveness by cutting costs and opti-mising performance. One example is Norway’s international automotive industry. Remaining competitive in the market and contributing to value creation will require continual advances, which must be driven by new knowledge, insight, innovation and enhanced industrial maturity. Another example is nology for hydropower, whose market is one of mature tech-nology but where there is a need for enhanced efficiency and capacity due to changing requirements and new patterns of operation at power production facilities.
The following section presents the results of the overall comparison of thematic and technology areas, with strate-gic diagrams and explanations for each of the three primary objectives of the strategy.
Meltwater near the Seljestad tunnel, western Norway. Photo: ABB
High potential for advancing the objective
Moderate potential for advancing the objective
25 Figure 5 National energy resources: anticipated significance for value creation is indicated vertically in two categories. Horizontal placement indi-cates the maturity and current development phase of each technology. Arrow colour indiindi-cates the estimated time period needed for the technology area to develop into a competitive industry (green arrow = short term, orange arrow = long term).
HYDROPOWER Increased value creation on the basis of national energy
resources and utilisation of energy
OBJECTIVE 1: VALUE CREATION BASED ON RESOURCES SHORT TERM: 2015 TO 2025 LONG TERM: 2025 AND BEYOND
GAS-FIRED POWER GENERATION WITH CCS
OFFSHORE WIND POWER ENERGY-EFFICIENT INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES UTILISATION OF BIORESOURCES
LAND-BASED WIND POWER TECHNOLOGICAL MATURITY
OBJECTIVE 1.
INCREASED VALUE CREATION ON THE BASIS OF NATIONAL ENERGY RESOURCES AND UTILISATION OF ENERGY
Norway is an energy nation. Utilisation of national energy resources represents an important source of value cre-ation both today and well into the future. There is major resource potential as well as promising opportunities for satisfying national energy needs, supplying energy and system services internationally and developing tech-nology products in which renewable energy input is an important factor in the production process.
ENERGI21 – STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
ENERGI21 National strategy for research, development, demonstration and commercialisation of new energy technology High potential for advancing the objective
Moderate potential for advancing the objective
26
Figure 6 National energy restructuring: anticipated significance for energy restructuring is indicated vertically in two categories. Horizontal place-ment indicates the maturity and current developplace-ment phase of each technology.
FLEXIBLE ENERGY SYSTEMS Energy restructuring through efficient use of energy and increased
flexibility in energy systems OBJECTIVE 2: RESTRUCTURING
RAISING ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN BUILDINGS
CCS ON INDUSTRIAL EMISSIONS
ENERGY-EFFICIENT INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES
BIOMASS FOR HEATING LAND-BASED WIND POWER
TECHNOLOGICAL MATURITY OBJECTIVE 2.
ENERGY RESTRUCTURING THROUGH EFFICIENT USE OF ENERGY AND INCREASED FLEXIBILITY IN ENERGY SYSTEMS
Climate challenges will have to be taken into consideration when meeting the need for energy and transport services in the years ahead. The solutions that will ensure adequate security of supply and at the same time are effective in the context of a climate strategy will entail the restructuring of current energy systems, also in Norway. Energy restructur-ing comprises the phasrestructur-ing out of fossil energy sources and
phasing in of energy- and climate-efficient solutions such as new renewable production capacity, raising energy effi-ciency and enhancing flexibility and effieffi-ciency in the end-user segment. There will also be closer integration between the energy and transport sectors in the transition to more sustainable transport solutions. A robust Norwegian cli-mate strategy will include the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from industry as well. In addition to technology, the ability of the individual and society as a whole to inte-grate new systems and solutions will be crucial to the effec-tive development of energy- and climate-efficient energy systems.
SHORT TERM: 2015 TO 2025 LONG TERM: 2025 AND BEYOND
High potential for advancing the objective
Moderate potential for advancing the objective
27 Figur 7 Development of a competitive business sector and expertise: anticipated potential for developing competitive expertise or business activ-ities is indicated vertically in two categories. Horizontal placement indicates the maturity and current development phase of each technology.
SOLAR POWER
Development of internationally competitive industry and expertise in the energy sector
OBJECTIVE 3: INDUSTRY AND EXPERTISE
OFFSHORE WIND POWER
ENERGY-INTENSIVE PRODUCTS AND ENERGY-EFFICIENT INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES
CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE FLEXIBLE ENERGY SYSTEMS
HYDROPOWER
BIOENERGY
TECHNOLOGICAL MATURITY OBJECTIVE 3:
DEVELOPMENT OF INTERNATIONALLY COMPETITIVE INDUSTRY AND EXPERTISE IN THE ENERGY SECTOR Climate- and energy-policy objectives are paving the way for a radical restructuring of the international energy system.
Sustainable development in emerging economies will in addition require a considerable increase in energy pro-duction and capacity and energy services. Together, these represent the main drivers of the rapidly growing markets for climate-friendly energy technologies. The Norwegian business sector is in a good position to gain a foothold
in emerging energy-related markets, both nationally and internationally.
Access to knowledge is a vital competitive advantage for Norwegian business, and dynamic educational and research environments are critical factors for recruitment and innovation in the energy sector. Norway must have strong, competitive, internationally recognised research and educational communities that can take the lead in international research cooperation.
SHORT TERM: 2015 TO 2025 LONG TERM: 2025 AND BEYOND
ENERGI21 – STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
ENERGI21 National strategy for research, development, demonstration and commercialisation of new energy technology 28
3.2.1
HYDROPOWER
Market development and anticipated significance interna-tionally and in Norway – relevance and potential
Internationally, hydropower is expanding greatly. Major hydro-power projects are relevant in Asia, Latin America, the Balkan states and in time in Africa as well. The European hydropower projects are mainly concentrated on renovation and recondi-tioning/refurbishment, among other things for adapting facil-ities to interact dynamically with renewable sources of energy such as wind and solar. In Norway the focus ahead will be on providing a basis for hydropeaking, further expanding the role of small-scale plants, rehabilitating existing facilities (UE) and more environmentally adapted hydropower production.
Norwegian stakeholders
Norway is home to a large number of operative energy com-panies with hydropower in their portfolios, as well as some technology suppliers and highly-knowledgeable consultancy firms. There are opportunities for Norway’s industrial and energy sector to play a part in the expansion of international large-scale hydropower development. With over a century of experience in the construction and operation of hydropower facilities, Norway possesses a solid knowledge and experience base and has clear competitive advantages.
It is important for Norway to nurture and strengthen its position in the field of hydropower in order to maintain and continue developing Norwegian expertise in environ-ment-friendly hydropower technology. Moreover, this expertise is fundamental to ensuring efficient operation and mainte-nance of existing hydropower facilities in Norway.
Norwegian challenges, advantages and opportunities Large-scale hydropower > 10 MW
The average age of Norway’s hydropower plants is 45 years.
Major renovation projects are needed, which will have a pro-found impact on the industry for the next several decades.
Existing facilities must also be adapted to new conditions resulting from changes in both climate and regulatory regimes. Another 130 TWh is to be developed in Norway, rep-resenting a potential for further value creation as well as great opportunity for integrating new technology and solutions. New knowledge regarding environmentally adapted development and operation should help to further expand this potential.