RQ1: How are the two processes of operation transition and knowledge de-velopment in Network Based Defence adjusted to each other?
Studied literature suggests several obstacles to the implementation process (page 3). Because technology has been the main cost driver for the implementation of Network Based Defence [21]; technology, procedures and intellectual capital are not aligned to each other. There exist gaps and incompatibilities between technol-ogy implemented and procedures and knowledge needed to utilize it [18]. Similar obstacles have been identified during practical research in this project (chapter 5). Insufficient technological solutions, education of operators at random, complex information collection and sharing together with inadequate level of trust among the operators suggest that technology, procedures and intellectual capital are not aligned to each other.
Comparable challenges can be found in Integrated Operations in the oil sector where the processes related to operation transition and knowledge development were not aligned to each other. In this project, system dynamic models from Ying Qian’s work related to Integrated Operations [6] were adapted in order to study the two processes of operation transition and knowledge development in parallel. The adapted models serve as preliminary hypothesis and are denoted "preliminary NbF system dynamic models". The models support results obtained during interviews and questionnaires conducted in two different army units (chapter5). The purpose of the models has been to raise awareness around central aspects significant to Network Based Defence. In addition, their simplicity and scope were well adjusted to the the ambition and limitations related to a Master’s project.
The purpose of the research was to identify factors delaying the implementation process of Network Based Defence and to investigate if the models would support future implementations. Such an identification would have the ability to improve military operations significantly and possibly increase the speed of implementing Network Based Defence. The complete methodology is described in chapter3.
RQ2: Which factors related to knowledge affect the implementation of Net-work Based Defence?
Arguments obtained during practical research in chapter (5) support the assump-tion that knowledge development is not very well adjusted to the operaassump-tion tran-sition of Network Based Defence. The technical systems are crucial to achieve the necessary level of speed during operations, but there is obviously a lack of knowl-edge related to development of military, technological platforms (page 98). The systems are complex, difficult and under continuous development challenging the use of the technological platform. There are no common solutions due to lack of ownership and responsibility, and the systems are not adjusted to different vehicle platforms. The technological platform’s potential is only partly utilized. The user’s competence varies due to education at random based on vested interest and avail-able time (page99). Experience seems to be essential to employ the technological platform in an appropriate manner, which is supported by preliminary NbF SD models in section3.1.7, suggesting that experience drives development. There is no comprehensive approach related to education and development of procedures.
RQ3: How are the identified factors related to knowledge and situational awareness affecting the operators’ perceived trust level?
Findings from the practical research suggest that knowledge related to the opera-tional objectives and the situaopera-tional picture seem to be covered for, but only due to appropriate experience and training (page99). Information must be collected and verified from multiple sources challenged by various obstacles. Misunderstandings happen with the possibility to escalate to incidents. Even if several sources suggest that presented information might be incorrect or outdated, the ordinary user tends to trust the information presented by the technological platform (page100).
Based on preliminary NbF SD models explained in section3.1.7, a knowledge gap will appear if knowledge is not developed in accordance with operation tran-sition. As a result of the knowledge gap, additional vulnerabilities and risk are introduced into the implementation process of Network Based Defence, also in-creasing the number of incidents (page30). Incidents in military operations range from accidents in the battalion to collateral damage on the battlefield. The oper-ators’ perceived trust level is also affected, possibly resulting in inappropriate use of the technological platform or wrong interpretation of the information presented
by the systems (page8). It might therefore be difficult for the operators to com-prehend the situational picture correctly, reducing their situational awareness. Due to lacking routines for registering incidents, the unit’s ability to learn from inci-dents can be assumed to be minimal (page41). It is also challenging to adjust the perceived trust to adequate level without proper registering routines.
RQ4: How will the perceived trust level affect the implementation of Network Based Defence?
Based on described preliminary NbF SD model in page35, an increase in the trans-formation speed related to Network Based Defence will increase the vulnerability, frequency of incidents and the incident cost. All the mentioned factors affect and adjust the operator’s perceived trust level. Inappropriate perceived trust level is also an indirect vulnerability together with inadequate situational awareness. Without proper routines for registering incidents, the operators might not be aware that incidents happen. Lack of registering routines reduces the management’s ability to adjust the processes of operation transition and knowledge development to each other. The trust level will not be adjusted, and the operators are not aware that their trust level is inadequate. It might therefore be difficult to understand the risks related to the operation transition of Network Based Defence and risk dur-ing military operations. It might also be difficult to identify factors challengdur-ing the successfulness of the implementation of Network Based Defence.
RQ5: How will a system dynamic model simplify and reduce risk related to the integration of Network Based Defence?
Based on the answers from research questions 1-4, it seems obvious that knowl-edge development is not very well adjusted to the operation transition of Network Based Defence. In this project, knowledge was studied from four different angles supported by adapted preliminary system dynamic models and practical research in three different military units. Identified factors related to knowledge can be as-sumed to affect the operators’ perceived trust level, which again can increase the frequency of incidents. Without proper routines for registering incidents, it is diffi-cult or even impossible to understand the risks related to the operation transition of Network Based Defence.
Empirical studies have shown significant cost benefit utilization when employ-ing system dynamic models in parallel with new technology adoption. The project therefore suggests employing a full-fledged system dynamic model in parallel with the implementation process of Network Based Defence to simplify the process and reduce risk. Such an approach has the ability to reduce giant overruns, avoid delays and reduce damage resulting from unadjusted processes. Technological implemen-tations can then be simulated in advance to identify possible difficulties. Hence,
living SD models of NbF of sufficient detail can support the implementation of Net-work Based Defence to ensure implementation in time, within the estimated cost and with reduced risk.
8 Future work
The preliminary NbF SD models adapted from Integrated Operations supported findings obtained during the practical research as elaborated in the discussion and conclusion. More specifically, the models supported the assumption that the pro-cesses of operation transition and knowledge development of Network Based De-fence are not not very well aligned to each other. But there are limitations related to the results achieved during this project. Due to time limitations, a complete Group Model Building process was not a viable option. The models adapted with permission from Ying Qian must therefore be viewed only as preliminary mod-els focusing on central parameters. In this project, the preliminary NbF SD modmod-els served as working hypothesis highlighting some of the problem issues. The employ-ment of the models shows some promising results, suggesting that the models can be further developed to follow the implementation process in parallel. By employ-ing customized models in the future implementation of Network Based Defence, some of the challenges related to the implementation process can be avoided. In this closing chapter, suggestions for future work are made.