Analyses of the use of the Norwegian forest sector in climate change mitigation

Hanne Kathrine SjøliePhilosophiae Doctor (PhD) Thesis 2011:28 Norwegian University of Life Sciences • Universitetet for miljø- og biovitenskapDepartment of Ecology and Natural Resource ManagementPhilosophiae Doctor (PhD) Thesis 2011:28

Analyses of the use of the Norwegian forest sector in climate change mitigation

Analyser av klimagasstiltak i den norske skogsektoren

Hanne Kathrine Sjølie

ISBN 978-82-575-0991-0 ISSN 1503-1667

Norwegian University of Life Sciences NO–1432 Ås, Norway

Phone +47 64 96 50 00

www.umb.no, e-mail: postmottak@umb.no

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…Šƒ‰‡‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘

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Š‹Ž‘•‘’Š‹ƒ‡‘…–‘”ȋŠȌŠ‡•‹•

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‘”™‡‰‹ƒ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ‹ˆ‡…‹‡…‡•

ʹͲͳͳ

Š‡•‹•—„‡”ʹͲͳͳǣʹͺ ͳͷͲ͵Ǧͳ͸͸͹

ͻ͹ͺǦͺʹǦͷ͹ͷǦͲͻͻͳǦͲ

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Supervisors

”‘ˆǤ”Ǥ‹”‰‡”‘Ž„‡”‰

‡’ƒ”–‡–‘ˆ…‘Ž‘‰›ƒ†ƒ–—”ƒŽ‡•‘—”…‡ƒƒ‰‡‡–ȋȌ

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”Ǥ…‹‡–”‹”ޏ„‘”‰

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‘”™‡‰‹ƒ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ‹ˆ‡…‹‡…‡•

Ǥ…Ǥƒƒ”‹–ƒŽŽ‹‘

‡–ŽƒȋŠ‡ ‹‹•Š ‘”‡•–‡•‡ƒ”…Š•–‹–—–‡Ȍ ‹Žƒ†

iii PREFACE

This thesis is a partial fulfillment of the requirements for the PhD degree at the Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management (INA), Norwegian University of Life Sciences (UMB). The project was funded by the University. Generous funding from the "The Forestry Development Foundation" (Utviklingsfondet for skogbruket) for the stay at Oregon State University (OSU) in the period August 2008 ‐ June 2009 is greatly appreciated.

The advisor group was headed by Birger Solberg, and consisted in addition of Erik Trømborg and Maarit Kallio. Birger was the mastermind of the project ideas. With his open‐door policy and enthusiasm, he has always had time for inspiring discussions, but at the same time given me valued freedom. Erik and Maarit have both shared ideas and have been important discussion partners. Erik co‐authored on Paper I and has given much constructive inputs along the whole way, while I have benefited much from discussions on modeling with Maarit during the last months prior to defense. I would also like to thank Darius Adams at OSU (co‐author on Paper II) for receiving me and providing guidance on important modeling issues, and particularly Greg Latta at OSU (co‐author on Paper II and IV), without whom this thesis would not have reached the same qualities. Torjus Bolkesjø introduced me to forest sector modeling and co‐

authored on Paper I, and has also later shared valuable modeling insight. Terje Gobakken taught me about Gaya and co‐authored on Paper IV, and of Kåre Hobbelstad, I learned about forest dynamics at the national level. Even Bergseng has been very helpful in solving all Gaya issues promptly and sharing expertise, while Ann Kristin Raymer freely shared data and knowledge about carbon dynamics. Thank you all. Thank you, Arezoo and Åsa, for spreading much laughter and fun in the department, and to Arezoo for inviting me for dinners in long working evenings. I would also like to thank the administrative and technical staff at INA for good assistance.

I am lucky to have a family who has a great interest in discussing topics as economics, forestry and climate change. My father is better informed about these issues than many people who can devote their full time to study them, and my mother has an especially clear eye for science. Last, but most important, I am indebted to my dear Luiz. Your interest and knowledge about science makes you the best discussion partner any PhD student could wish for, but more invaluable, you have given a moral and practical support across oceans and during numerous too long working days that has been marvelous. Mil obrigados.

Ås, April 2011 Hanne K. Sjølie

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˜ SUMMARY

Š‡ ˆ‘”‡•– •‡…–‘” ’Žƒ›• ‹’‘”–ƒ– ”‘Ž‡• ‹ –Š‡ ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ …ƒ”„‘ …›…Ž‡Ǥ ‹”•–Ž›ǡ –Š‡ ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ

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ƒ† Žƒ† †‡‰”ƒ†ƒ–‹‘Ǥ ‡…‘†Ž›ǡ –Š‡ ˆ‘”‡•– •‡…–‘” •‡‡• –‘ Šƒ˜‡ ’‘–‡–‹ƒŽ• –‘ ˆ—”–Š‡”

‹–‹‰ƒ–‡ ƒ……——Žƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ ‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡ ‰ƒ•‡• ‹ –Š‡ ƒ–‘•’Š‡”‡ ƒ† ”‡†—…‡ ‘˜‡”ƒŽŽ

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‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡ ‰ƒ• ‡‹••‹‘•ǡ †—‡ –‘ ƒ ‹…”‡‡– –Šƒ– ‡š…‡‡†• –Š‡ Šƒ”˜‡•–• „› ƒ Žƒ”‰‡

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†‡…”‡ƒ•‡† •—„•–ƒ–‹ƒŽŽ›ǡ ƒŽ–Š‘—‰Š –Š‡ ˆ‘”‡•–• ™‹ŽŽ „‡ ƒ ‹’‘”–ƒ– ˆƒ…–‘” ‹ –Š‡

‘”™‡‰‹ƒ‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡‰ƒ•ƒ……‘—–ƒŽ•‘‹–Š‡ˆ—–—”‡Ǥ

Š‡Ž‘‰‹˜‡•–‡–Š‘”‹œ‘ƒ†–Š‡Ž‘‰Ǧ–‡”…ƒ”„‘‹’ƒ…–•‘ˆˆ‘”‡•–ƒƒ‰‡‡–

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Žƒ”‰‡ —„‡” ‘ˆ ƒƒŽ›•‡• ”‡Žƒ–‡† –‘ …Ž‹ƒ–‡ …Šƒ‰‡ ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘ ƒ† ‡…‘‘‹…• ‹ –Š‹•

•‡…–‘”ǡˆ‡™•–—†‹‡•‹–‡‰”ƒ–‡‹ƒ‡…‘‘‹…ƒŽŽ›…‘•‹•–‡–ƒ‡”–Š‡„‹‘Ž‘‰‹…ƒŽ‰”‘™–Š

ƒ† ‹˜‡•–‡–• ‹ ˆ‘”‡•–”› ™‹–Š –‹„‡” ƒ† ™‘‘† ’”‘†—…– ƒ”‡–•Ǥ Š‡ –”ƒ†‡Ǧ‘ˆˆ•

„‡–™‡‡‡š–‡†‡†—•‡‘ˆ™‘‘†’”‘†—…–•ƒ†‹…”‡ƒ•‡†…ƒ”„‘•‡“—‡•–”ƒ–‹‘‹ˆ‘”‡•–•

”‡†‡”• •—…Š ‹–‡‰”ƒ–‡† ƒƒŽ›•‡• •—‹–ƒ„Ž‡ ˆ‘” ‘„–ƒ‹‹‰ ”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹… ‡•–‹ƒ–‡• ‘ˆ …ƒ”„‘

’‘Ž‹…›…‘•–•ǡ’‘–‡–‹ƒŽ•ƒ†‹’ƒ…–•ǤŠ‹•–Š‡•‹•Šƒ•–™‘ƒ‹‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡•ǣͳȌ–‘†‡˜‡Ž‘’ƒ

„‹‘Ǧ‡…‘‘‹… ‘†‡Ž ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‘”™‡‰‹ƒ ˆ‘”‡•– •‡…–‘” –Šƒ– Ž‹• –Š‡ –‹„‡” ƒ† ™‘‘†

’”‘†—…– ƒ”‡–• –‘ –Š‡ „‹‘Ž‘‰‹…ƒŽ „ƒ•‹• ƒ† ‹˜‡•–‡–• ‹ ˆ‘”‡•–”›ǡ ƒ† –”ƒ…• –Š‡

…ƒ”„‘ ˆŽ‘™ –Š”‘—‰Š‘—– –Š‡ ‡–‹”‡ •‡…–‘”ǡ ƒ† ʹȌ –‘ •–—†› Š‘™ –Š‡ ‘”™‡‰‹ƒ ˆ‘”‡•–

•‡…–‘”…ƒ…‘–”‹„—–‡–‘…Ž‹ƒ–‡…Šƒ‰‡‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘ǤŠ‡•‡‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡•ƒ”‡ƒ††”‡••‡†‹–Š‡

ˆ‘—”’ƒ’‡”•‘ˆ–Š‡–Š‡•‹•Ǥ

’”‡˜‹‘—•Ž›†‡˜‡Ž‘’‡†‘†‡Ž‘ˆ–Š‡‘”™‡‰‹ƒˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”™ƒ•—•‡†ˆ‘”–Š‡•–—†›‹

ƒ’‡”ǡ‹™Š‹…Š–Š‡…‘•–•ƒ†„‡‡ˆ‹–•‘ˆŠ‡ƒ–‹‰ƒ”‡–’‘Ž‹…‹‡•™‡”‡…‘’ƒ”‡†ǤŠ‡

–™‘ ƒƒŽ›œ‡† ’‘Ž‹…‹‡• ™‡”‡ …ƒ”„‘ –ƒš ‘ †‘‡•–‹… Š‡ƒ–‹‰ ‘‹Ž ƒ† ’ƒ”ƒˆˆ‹ ƒ†

‹˜‡•–‡– ‰”ƒ–• –‘ †‹•–”‹…– Š‡ƒ–‹‰ ‹•–ƒŽŽƒ–‹‘• „ƒ•‡† ‘ ˆ‘”‡•–Ǧ„ƒ•‡† ‡‡”‰›Ǥ Š‡

”‡•—Ž–•‹†‹…ƒ–‡–Šƒ––Š‡…ƒ”„‘–ƒšŠƒ•ƒŽƒ”‰‡‹ˆŽ—‡…‡‘„‹‘‡‡”‰›’”‘†—…–‹‘‹–Š‡

ƒƒŽ›œ‡† –‡…Š‘Ž‘‰‹‡•Ǥ ‹‘‡‡”‰› ’”‘†—…–‹‘ „ƒ•‡† ‘ …Š‹’• ‹…”‡ƒ•‡† …‘•‹†‡”ƒ„Ž›

™Š‡–Š‡…ƒ”„‘’”‹…‡”‘•‡ˆ”‘ʹͲ–‘͸Ͳ̀Ȁ–‘‡ʹ‡“Ǥ–…ƒ”„‘’”‹…‡•ƒ„‘˜‡ͺͲ

̀Ȁ–‘‡ ʹ‡“ǡ ’‡ŽŽ‡– ’”‘†—…–‹‘ ‡š’ƒ†‡†Ǥ – –Š‡ Š‹‰Š‡•– ƒƒŽ›œ‡† –ƒš Ž‡˜‡Žǡ ͳ͸Ͳ

̀Ȁ–‘‡ʹ‡“ǡ͹ǤͷŠŠ‡ƒ–™ƒ•’”‘†—…‡†ƒ—ƒŽŽ›„ƒ•‡†‘–Š‡•‡„‹‘‡‡”‰›…ƒ””‹‡”•Ǥ

Š‡ …‘””‡•’‘†‹‰ ‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡ ‰ƒ• ‡‹••‹‘ ”‡†—…–‹‘• ‡“—ƒŽ‡† ʹǤ͵ ‹ŽŽ‹‘ –‘‡•

ʹ‡“ǡ‘”͹ͲΨ‘ˆ–‘–ƒŽ‡‹••‹‘•ˆ”‘Š‡ƒ–‹‰‹‘”™ƒ›ǤŠ‡‹˜‡•–‡–‰”ƒ–™ƒ•ƒŽ•‘

•Š‘™ –‘ ‹…”‡ƒ•‡ „‹‘‡‡”‰› ’”‘†—…–‹‘ǡ „—– Šƒ† Ž‡•• ‡ˆˆ‡…–• ‹ˆ …‘„‹‡† ™‹–Š Š‹‰Š

…ƒ”„‘–ƒš‡•Ǥ

ƒ’‡” ‹• ƒ ƒ’’Ž‹…ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ˆ‘”‡•– •‡…–‘” ‘†‡Ž †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡† ƒ• ’ƒ”– ‘ˆ –Š‹• –Š‡•‹•ǡ

‘” ‘”ǤŠ‡•–—†›ƒ††”‡••‡•–Š‡‹’‘”–ƒ…‡‘ˆ–Š‡ˆ‘”‡•‹‰Š–ƒ••—’–‹‘‹ˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”

‘†‡Ž‹‰Ǥ‘•–ˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”‘†‡Ž•ǡƒ‰‡–•ƒ”‡ƒ••—‡†–‘„‡‡‹–Š‡”›‘’‹…ǡ‹Ǥ‡Ǥ–‘

˜‹

Šƒ˜‡‘ƒ”‡–‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘„‡›‘†–Š‡…—””‡–’‡”‹‘†ǡ‘”–‘Šƒ˜‡’‡”ˆ‡…–ˆ‘”‡•‹‰Š–ǡ‹Ǥ‡Ǥ

–‘ Šƒ˜‡ ’‡”ˆ‡…– ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ”‡‰ƒ”†‹‰ ƒŽŽ ”‡Ž‡˜ƒ– ˆƒ…–‘”• ˆ‘” –Š‡ ‡–‹”‡ ƒƒŽ›œ‡†

Š‘”‹œ‘Ǥ –Š‹• ’ƒ’‡”ǡ–Š‡ ‹’ƒ…–• ‘ˆ ƒ Š›’‘–Š‡–‹…ƒŽ ‹’‘”– „ƒ ‘ …‘‹ˆ‡”‘—• –‹„‡”

„‡‰‹‹‰‹ʹͲʹͲ™ƒ•ƒƒŽ›œ‡†ǡ™‹–Š–Š”‡‡†‡‰”‡‡•‘ˆˆ‘”‡•‹‰Š–ǣ’‡”ˆ‡…–ȋ–Š‡ƒ‰‡–•Šƒ†

ˆ—ŽŽ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ȌǡŽ‹‹–‡†ȋ–Š‡ƒ‰‡–•Šƒ†‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‹‹–‡†–‹‡„‡ˆ‘”‡Šƒ†Ȍƒ†‘

‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ „‡ˆ‘”‡Šƒ†Ǥ ‡ ˆ‘—† –Šƒ– ™Š‡ ƒ–‹…‹’ƒ–‹‰ –Š‡ „ƒǡ –Š‡ ˆ‘”‡•– ‘™‡”•

”‡†—…‡† –Š‡ Šƒ”˜‡•– ‹ –Š‡ ’‡”‹‘†• ’”‹‘” –‘ –Š‡ „ƒ ‹ ‘”†‡” –‘ •ƒ˜‡ –‹„‡” ˆ‘” Žƒ–‡”

™Š‡–Š‡’”‹…‡•‹…”‡ƒ•‡†ǤŠ‡Ž‡••‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„Ž‡ǡ–Š‡‘”‡–Š‡’”‹…‡•‹…”‡ƒ•‡†Ǥ

‹‘‡‡”‰›’”‘†—…–‹‘™ƒ••‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–Ž›”‡†—…‡†–‘’”‡•‡”˜‡–Š‡’”‘†—…–‹‘‘ˆ’—Ž’ƒ†

’ƒ’‡”Ǥ ‡ ˆ‘—† ‡˜‹†‡…‡ ‘ˆ ƒ†ƒ’–‹˜‡ „‡Šƒ˜‹‘” ‹ ’‡”‹‘†• „‡ˆ‘”‡ –Š‡ „ƒ ™ƒ•

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‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡ ‰ƒ• ‡‹••‹‘•ǡ ™Š‹Ž‡ ƒ› ˆƒ…–‘”• ‹ –Š‡ ’”‘†—…–‹‘ …Šƒ‹ Šƒ† ‘Ž› ƒ

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…‘•–•‘ˆ‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡‰ƒ•”‡†—…–‹‘™ƒ•ˆ‘—†–‘„‡ƒ’’”‘š‹ƒ–‡Ž›͸Ͳ̀Ȁ–‘‡ʹ‡“Ǥ

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‘”™‡‰‹ƒˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”ǡ‹™Š‹…Š–Š‡‘” ‘”‘†‡Ž™ƒ•ƒ’’Ž‹‡†Ǥƒ”„‘•‡“—‡•–”ƒ–‹‘

ƒ†ƒ˜‘‹†‡†‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡‰ƒ•‡‹••‹‘•ƒ„‘˜‡„ƒ•‡Ž‹‡™‡”‡ƒƒŽ›œ‡†ˆ‘”…ƒ”„‘’”‹…‡•

”ƒ‰‹‰ ˆ”‘ ͳͲͲ –‘ ͺͲͲ Ȁ–‘‡ ʹ‡“ǡ –ƒ”‰‡–‹‰ ƒŽŽ ƒŒ‘” ’‘•‹–‹˜‡ ƒ† ‡‰ƒ–‹˜‡

ˆŽ—š‡• ‹ ˆ‘”‡•–”›ǡ –”ƒ•’‘”–ǡ ’”‘…‡••‹‰ǡ …‘•—’–‹‘ ƒ† •—„•–‹–—–‹‘Ǥ ™‘ –›’‡• ‘ˆ

ƒ”‡– ‘†‡Ž• ™‡”‡ ƒƒŽ›œ‡†ǣ ‘‡ ‡†‘‰‡‘—• ƒ”‡– ‘†‡Žǡ ‹ ™Š‹…Š ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘

‡ƒ•—”‡•…‘—Ž†„‡—†‡”–ƒ‡–Š”‘—‰Š‘—––Š‡‡–‹”‡•‡…–‘”ǡƒ†‘‡‡š‘‰‡‘—•ƒ”‡–

‘†‡Žǡ‹™Š‹…Š‹†—•–”‹ƒŽ’”‘†—…–‹‘ǡ‹’‘”–•ƒ†‡š’‘”–•™‡”‡ˆ‹š‡†–‘„ƒ•‡•…‡ƒ”‹‘

Ž‡˜‡Ž• ™‹–Š ‘ …ƒ”„‘ ’”‹…‡Ǥ ƒ”˜‡•–• ™‡”‡ ƒŽŽ‘™‡† –‘ ˜ƒ”› ™‹–Š‹ –Š‡ Ž‹‹–• ‘ˆ –Š‡•‡

…‘•–”ƒ‹–•Ǥ‡ˆ‘—†Žƒ”‰‡†‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡•‹’‘–‡–‹ƒŽ•ƒ†…‘•–•„‡–™‡‡–Š‡–™‘ƒ”‡–

‘†‡Ž•ǡ™‹–Š•—„•–ƒ–‹ƒŽŽ›Š‹‰Š‡”’‘–‡–‹ƒŽ•ƒ†Ž‘™‡”…‘•–•‹–Š‡‡†‘‰‡‘—•ƒ”‡–

‘†‡ŽǤ —”–Š‡”‘”‡ǡ ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘ ‡ƒ•—”‡• ‹ –Š‡ ‡†‘‰‡‘—• ƒ”‡– ‘†‡Ž ™‡”‡

—†‡”–ƒ‡ ˆ‘” –Š‡ ‡–‹”‡ •‡…–‘”Ǥ ƒ”˜‡•–•ǡ ’ƒ”–‹…—Žƒ”Ž› –Š‹‹‰ǡ ™‡”‡ ”‡†—…‡† ƒ†

’Žƒ–‹‰™ƒ•‹–‡•‹ˆ‹‡†ǡ™Š‹Ž‡’—Ž’™‘‘†™ƒ•ƒŽŽ‘…ƒ–‡†ˆ”‘’—Ž’ƒ†’ƒ’‡”’”‘†—…–‹‘

ƒ† Ž‘™Ǧ‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡…› •–‘˜‡• –‘ Š‹‰ŠǦ‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡…› ™ƒ–‡”„‘”‡ Š‡ƒ–‹‰ •›•–‡•Ǥ ‡ƒƒ‰‡

‘……—””‡†ƒ•‹’‘”–•ƒ†‡š’‘”–•…Šƒ‰‡†ͳͷǦʹͷΨǤ……‘”†‹‰–‘–Š‡”‡•—Ž–•ǡ–Š‡’‘–‡–‹ƒŽ

ˆ‘” ”‡†—…‡† ‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡ ‰ƒ• ‡‹••‹‘• ƒ† ‹…”‡ƒ•‡† …ƒ”„‘ •‡“—‡•–”ƒ–‹‘ ‹ –Š‡

‡†‘‰‡‘—•ƒ”‡–‘†‡Žˆ”‘–‘†ƒ›–‘ʹͲͷͷ‹–Š‡’”‡•‡…‡‘ˆƒ…ƒ”„‘’”‹…‡‘ˆͺͲͲ

˜‹‹

Ȁʹ‡“ ™ƒ• ‘”‡ –Šƒ ͹ ‹ŽŽ‹‘ –‘‡• ʹ‡“Ȁ›‡ƒ” …ƒŽ…—Žƒ–‡† ƒ• ƒ—‹–› ™‹–Š

†‹•…‘—–”ƒ–‡ͶΨ’ǤƒǤ

Š‡”‡•—Ž–•‘ˆ–Š‡•‡’ƒ’‡”•‹†‹…ƒ–‡–Šƒ––Š‡‘”™‡‰‹ƒˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”Šƒ•…‘•‹†‡”ƒ„Ž‡

’‘–‡–‹ƒŽ•–‘”‡†—…‡–Š‡ƒ–‘•’Š‡”‹……‘…‡–”ƒ–‹‘‘ˆʹǤŽ‘‰Ǧ”ƒ‰‡„‹‘Ǧ‡…‘‘‹…

‘†‡Ž Ž‹‡ ‘” ‘” ™Š‹…Š ‹–‡‰”ƒ–‡• –Š‡ ‡–‹”‡ ˆ‘”‡•– •‡…–‘”ǡ •‡‡• •—‹–ƒ„Ž‡ –‘ ƒ••‡••

…‘•–•ǡ’‘–‡–‹ƒŽ•ƒ†‹’ƒ…–•‘ˆ…ƒ”„‘’‘Ž‹…‹‡•‘–Š‡•‡…–‘”Ǥ

˜‹‹‹

‹š

SAMMENDRAG

‘‰•‡–‘”‡ •’‹ŽŽ‡” ‡ ˜‹–‹‰ ”‘ŽŽ‡ ‹ †‡ ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ‡ ƒ”„‘•›Ž—•‡Ǥ ‘” †‡– ˆÞ”•–‡ ‡”

ƒ”„‘Žƒ‰”‡‡ ‹ „‹‘ƒ••‡ ‘‰ Œ‘”† ‹ •‘‰ ‡‰‡– •–‘”‡ ‘‰ •ƒŽ‡– ƒ”„‘‘’’–ƒ ‹ †‡

‰Ž‘„ƒŽ‡•‘‰‡”‡”•–Þ””‡‡—–•Ž‹’’‡‡ˆ”ƒƒ˜•‘‰‹‰‘‰†‡‰”ƒ†‡”‹‰ƒ˜Žƒ†Ǥ ‘”†‡–

ƒ†”‡ •‡” •‘‰•‡–‘”‡ —– –‹Ž ¤ Šƒ „‡–›†‡Ž‹‰ ’‘–‡•‹ƒŽ ˆ‘” ¤ ›––‡”Ž‹‰‡”‡ „‡‰”‡•‡

ƒ——Ž‡”‹‰ƒ˜Ž‹ƒ‰ƒ••‡”‹ƒ–‘•ˆ§”‡Ǥ ‘”†‹•‘‰–‹Ž˜‡•–‡‹‘”‰‡‡”›‡•–Þ””‡

‡ƒ˜˜‹”‹‰‡ǡ–ƒ”•‘‰‡‡‘’’‡”‡ŠƒŽ˜’ƒ”–‡ƒ˜†‡ƒ•Œ‘ƒŽ‡‡‡•‡•ƒ’–‡

Ž‹ƒ‰ƒ••—–•Ž‹’’‡‡Ǥ‡Ž˜‘†‡–ˆ”‡–‹†‹‰‡ƒ”„‘‘’’–ƒ‡–ƒ–ƒ‰‡Ž‹‰˜‹Ž”‡†—•‡”‡•’¤

‰”— ƒ˜ ‹†”‡ ‹˜‡•–‡”‹‰‡” ‹ ’”‹§”•‘‰„”—‡– †‡ •‹•–‡ –‹¤”‡‡ǡ ˜‹Ž •‘‰ ˜§”‡ ‡

˜‹–‹‰ˆƒ–‘”‹‘”‰‡•Ž‹ƒ‰ƒ••”‡‰•ƒ’‘‰•¤ˆ”‡‘˜‡”Ǥ

‡Žƒ‰‡‹˜‡•–‡”‹‰•Š‘”‹•‘–‡‘‰†‡Žƒ‰˜ƒ”‹‰‡˜‹”‹‰‡‡’¤ƒ”„‘”‡‰•ƒ’‡–ƒ˜

•‘‰•ŒÞ–•‡Ž•–‹Ž–ƒ ‰ŒÞ” ƒ– ’ŽƒŽ‡‰‰‹‰•‘†‡ŽŽ‡” ‡” ˜‹–‹‰‡ ‹ •‘‰•‡–‘”‡Ǥ ‡– ˆ‹‡•

”‡Žƒ–‹˜– ƒ‰‡ ƒƒŽ›•‡” ƒ˜ ˜‹”‹‰‡” ’¤ Ž‹ƒ‰ƒ••—–•Ž‹’’ ‘‰ ލ‘‘‹ ƒ˜ –‹Ž–ƒ ‹

•‘‰•‡–‘”‡ǡ‡†‡–‡”ˆ¤•–—†‹‡”•‘’¤‡Þ‘‘‹•‘•‹•–‡–¤–‡‹–‡‰”‡”‡”

†‡ „‹‘Ž‘‰‹•‡ ˜‡•–‡ ‘‰ ‹˜‡•–‡”‹‰‡” ‹ •‘‰„”—‡– ‡† ƒ”‡†‡‡ ˆ‘” –ޏ‡” ‘‰

–”‡’”‘†—–‡”Ǥ ˜˜‡‹‹‰‡ ‡ŽŽ‘ ¤ —–˜‹†‡ „”—‡ ƒ˜ –”‡’”‘†—–‡” ‘‰ ¤ ލ‡

ƒ”„‘‘’’–ƒ‡–‹•‘‰‰ŒÞ”•Ž‹‡‹–‡‰”‡”–‡ƒƒŽ›•‡”‡‰‡–ˆ‘”¤ˆ”‡„”‹‰‡”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹•‡

ƒ•Žƒ‰’¤’‘–‡•‹ƒŽ‡”ǡ‘•–ƒ†‡”‘‰‡ˆˆ‡–‡”ƒ˜Ž‹ƒ’‘Ž‹–‹•‡–‹Ž–ƒǤ‡‡ƒ˜Šƒ†Ž‹‰‡

Šƒ”–‘Š‘˜‡†¤ŽǣͳȌ%—–˜‹Ž‡‡„‹‘ލ‘‘‹•‘†‡ŽŽƒ˜†‡‘”•‡•‘‰•‡–‘”‡•‘

‹–‡‰”‡”‡”„‹‘Ž‘‰‹•˜‡•–‘‰‹˜‡•–‡”‹‰‡”‹•‘‰„”—‡–‡†ƒ”‡†‡‡ˆ‘”–ޏ‡”‘‰

–”‡’”‘†—–‡”ǡ ‘‰ „‡”‡‰‡” ƒ”„‘•–”ޏ‡‡ ‰Œ‡‘ Š‡Ž‡ •‡–‘”‡ǡ ‘‰ ʹȌ ¤ •–—†‡”‡

Š˜‘”†ƒ †‡ ‘”•‡ •‘‰•‡–‘”‡ ƒ ‡†˜‹”‡ –‹Ž ¤ ”‡†—•‡”‡ ‘•‡–”ƒ•Œ‘‡ ƒ˜

Ž‹ƒ‰ƒ••‡”‹ƒ–‘•ˆ§”‡‘‰†‡”‡†‘–˜‹”‡‰Ž‘„ƒŽ‡Ž‹ƒ‡†”‹‰‡”Ǥ‡––‡‡”„‡Ž›•–‹

†‡ˆ‹”‡ƒ”–‹Ž‡‡‹ƒ˜Šƒ†Ž‹‰‡Ǥ

–‹†Ž‹‰‡”‡—–˜‹Ž‡–‘†‡ŽŽƒ˜†‡‘”•‡•‘‰•‡–‘”‡„Ž‡„”—–ˆ‘”•–—†‹‡‹ƒ”–‹‡Ž

ͳǡŠ˜‘”‘•–ƒ†‡”‘‰›––‡ƒ˜’‘Ž‹–‹•‡–‹Ž–ƒˆ‘”˜ƒ”‡ƒ”‡†‡–„Ž‡•ƒ‡Ž‹‰‡–Ǥ‡

–‘ƒƒŽ›•‡”–‡–‹Ž–ƒ‡‡˜ƒ”ʹǦƒ˜‰‹ˆ–’¤ˆ›”‹‰•‘ŽŒ‡‘‰’ƒ”ƒˆ‹‘‰‹˜‡•–‡”‹‰••–Þ––‡–‹Ž

ˆŒ‡”˜ƒ”‡ƒŽ‡‰‰„ƒ•‡”–’¤•‘‰„ƒ•‡”–‡‡”‰‹Ǥ‡•—Ž–ƒ–‡‡‹†‹‡”‡”ƒ–ލ–ʹǦƒ˜‰‹ˆ–’¤

‘—””‡”‡†‡ ‡‡”‰‹„§”‡”‡ Šƒ” •–‘” ‹˜‹”‹‰ ’¤ ’”‘†—•Œ‘‡ ‹ †‡ ƒƒŽ›•‡”–‡

„‹‘‡‡”‰‹–‡‘Ž‘‰‹‡‡Ǥ ‹‘‡‡”‰‹’”‘†—•Œ‘ „ƒ•‡”– ’¤ ˆŽ‹• ލ–‡ †”ƒ•–‹• ¤” ʹǦ

ƒ˜‰‹ˆ–‡Þ–‡ˆ”ƒʹͲ–‹Ž͸Ͳ̀Ȁ–‘ʹ‡“ǡ‡•’‡ŽŽ‡–•’”‘†—•Œ‘‡‡•’ƒ†‡”–‡˜‡†‡

ʹǦ’”‹•‘˜‡”ͺͲ̀Ȁ–‘ʹ‡“Ǥ‡††‡–ŠÞ›‡•–‡ƒ˜‰‹ˆ–•‹˜¤‡–ǡͳ͸Ͳ̀Ȁ–‘ʹ‡“ǡ„Ž‡͹Ǥͷ

Š ˜ƒ”‡ ’”‘†—•‡”– ¤”Ž‹‰ „ƒ•‡”– ’¤ †‹••‡ „‹‘‡‡”‰‹„§”‡”‡Ǥ ‡ –‹Ž•˜ƒ”‡†‡

Ž‹ƒ‰ƒ••”‡†—•Œ‘‡‡˜ƒ”ʹǤ͵‹ŽŽ‹‘‡”–‘ʹǡ‡ŽŽ‡”͹ͲΨƒ˜†‡¤”Ž‹‰‡—–•Ž‹’’‡‡ˆ”ƒ

˜ƒ”‡’”‘†—•Œ‘ ‹ ‘”‰‡Ǥ ˜‡•–‡”‹‰••–Þ––‡ „Ž‡ ‘‰•¤ ˆ—‡– ¤ ލ‡

„‹‘‡‡”‰‹’”‘†—•Œ‘‡ǡ‡Šƒ††‡‹†”‡‡ˆˆ‡–¤”†‡„Ž‡‘„‹‡”–‡†ŠÞ›‡ʹǦ

ƒ˜‰‹ˆ–‡”Ǥ

”–‹‡Ž‡”‡ƒ˜‡†‡Ž•‡ƒ˜•‘‰•‡–‘”‘†‡ŽŽ‡‘” ‘”•‘„Ž‡—–˜‹Ž‡–•‘‡†‡Ž

ƒ˜†‡‡ƒ˜Šƒ†Ž‹‰‡Ǥ–—†‹‡ƒƒŽ›•‡”‡”Š˜‘”•–‘”„‡–›†‹‰—Ž‹‡ˆ‘”—–•‡–‹‰‡”‘

ˆ‘”Š¤†•—•ƒ’ Šƒ” ‹ •‘‰•‡–‘”‘†‡ŽŽ‡”‹‰Ǥ †‡ ˆŽ‡•–‡ •‘‰•‡–‘”‘†‡ŽŽ‡” ‡”

š

ƒ–Þ”‡‡‡–‡ƒ–ƒ––¤˜§”‡̶›‘’‹•‡̶ȋ§”•›–‡Ȍǡ†˜•Ǥ‹‡¤Šƒ‘‡‹ˆ‘”ƒ•Œ‘‘

ˆ”ƒ–‹†‹‰‡ ˆ‘”Š‘Ž† ‡––‡” †‡ ‹‡˜§”‡†‡ ’‡”‹‘†‡ǡ ‡ŽŽ‡” ¤ Šƒ ’‡”ˆ‡–

ˆ‘”Š¤†•—•ƒ’Ǥ†˜•Ǥƒ–ƒŽŽ‡”‡Ž‡˜ƒ–‡ˆƒ–‘”‡”‡”Œ‡–ˆ‘”ƒŽŽ‡’‡”‹‘†‡”•‘ƒƒŽ›•‡

‘ˆƒ––‡”Ǥ†‡‡ƒ”–‹‡Ž‡ƒƒŽ›•‡”‡•˜‹”‹‰‡”ƒ˜‡–Š›’‘–‡–‹•‹’‘”–ˆ‘”„—†’¤ƒŽŽ

„ƒ”–”‡–ޏ‡” ƒ–ƒ–– ‹ˆÞ”– ‹ ʹͲʹͲǤ ”‡ ‰”ƒ†‡” ƒ˜ ˆ‘”Š¤†•—•ƒ’ „Ž‡ •–—†‡”–ǣ

‡”ˆ‡– ȋƒ–Þ”‡‡ Šƒ††‡ ˆ—ŽŽ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ•Œ‘Ȍǡ „‡‰”‡•‡– ȋƒ–Þ”‡‡ Šƒ††‡ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ•Œ‘ ‡

„‡‰”‡•‡––‹†‹ˆ‘”˜‡‹‡Ȍ‘‰‹‰‡ˆ‘”Š¤†•‹ˆ‘”ƒ•Œ‘Ǥ‹ˆƒ–ƒ–¤”ƒ–Þ”‡‡ˆ‘”—–•¤

ˆ‘”„—†‡–ǡ˜‹ŽŽ‡•‘‰‡‹‡”‡”‡†—•‡”‡ƒ˜˜‹”‹‰‡‹–‹†‡ˆÞ”ʹͲʹͲˆ‘”¤•’ƒ”‡–ޏ‡”–‹Ž

•‡‡”‡’‡”‹‘†‡”‡†ŠÞ›‡”‡’”‹•‡”Ǥ‘‹†”‡‹ˆ‘”ƒ•Œ‘•‘˜ƒ”–‹Ž‰Œ‡‰‡Ž‹‰ǡŒ‘‡”

ލ–‡’”‹•‡‡•‘ˆÞŽ‰‡ƒ˜‹’‘”–ˆ‘”„—†‡–Ǥ‹‘‡‡”‰‹’”‘†—•Œ‘‡„Ž‡†”ƒ•–‹•”‡†—•‡”–

ˆ‘” ¤ „‡˜ƒ”‡ ’”‘†—•Œ‘‡ ƒ˜ ƒ••‡ ‘‰ ’ƒ’‹”Ǥ ‹ ˆƒ– •–Þ––‡ ˆ‘” Š›’‘–‡•‡ ‘ ƒ–

ƒ–Þ”‡‡–‹Ž’ƒ••‡”•‡‰ˆ‘”„—†‡–ˆÞ”‹’Ž‡‡–‡”‹‰‡ǡ‡–‹Ž’ƒ•‹‰‡˜ƒ”‹†”‡‡

ˆ‘”˜‡–‡–Ǥ ‘ —Ž‹‰‡ ¤”•ƒ‡” –‹Ž †‡––‡ ‡” „‡‰”‡•‡– –‹Ž‰Œ‡‰‡Ž‹‰ –‹† ˆ‘” –‹Ž’ƒ•‹‰ ‘‰

„‡–›†‡Ž‹‰‡ˆƒ•–‡‘•–ƒ†‡”‹‹†—•–”‹‡Ǥ

ƒ”–‹‡Ž„Ž‡˜‹”‹‰‡”’¤Ž‹ƒ‰ƒ••—–•Ž‹’’‡‡ƒ˜¤„”—‡–”‡’‡ŽŽ‡–•‹—ŽŽ”ƒˆ–˜‡”

ƒƒŽ›•‡”–Ǥ•‡•‹–‹˜‹–‡–•ƒƒŽ›•‡„Ž‡—–ˆÞ”–ˆ‘”¤ƒ˜†‡‡Š˜‹Ž‡ˆƒ–‘”‡”•‘’¤˜‹”‡”

•—„•–‹–—•Œ‘•‡ˆˆ‡–‡ ‡•–ǡ ‘‰ ˆ‘”—–•‡–‹‰‡ ‘ ƒ”„‘Þ›–”ƒŽ‹–‡– „Ž‡ †‹•—–‡”–Ǥ ‡–

ƒƒŽ›•‡”–‡…ƒ•‡Ǧ•–—†‹‡–˜ƒ”‡›Ž‹‰¤’‡–’‡ŽŽ‡–•ˆƒ„”‹‹‘”‰‡ǡ†‡”’‡ŽŽ‡–•‡‡”–‡–

‡•’‘”–‡”––‹Ž—ŽŽ”ƒˆ–˜‡”‹—”‘’ƒǤ¤ƒ–‡”‹ƒŽ‡‡‘‡”ˆ”ƒƒƒ†ƒǤ ‘”—–•‡–‹‰‡

‘ ƒ”„‘Þ›–”ƒŽ‹–‡– „Ž‡ ˆ—‡– ¤ ˜§”‡ †‡ ˜‹–‹‰•–‡ ‡‡Ž–ˆƒ–‘”‡ ˆ‘” †‡– –‘–ƒŽ‡

Ž‹ƒ‰ƒ••”‡‰•ƒ’‡–Ǥ˜‹•ƒŽŽ‡—–•Ž‹’’‡‡ˆ”ƒˆ‘”„”‡‹‰ƒ˜’‡ŽŽ‡–•„Ž‡‹Ž—†‡”–ǡ‡

‹‡ƒ”„‘„‹†‹‰‡‹•‘‰ǡ‡†–‡•—„•–‹–—•Œ‘•‡ˆˆ‡–‡’¤‘–”‡–—ŽŽǤ%‡”•–ƒ––‡†‡

‡•–ˆ‘”—”‡•‡†‡„”‡•Ž‡‡ˆÞ”•–˜ƒ”‘‰•¤˜‹–‹‰ˆ‘”¤”‡†—•‡”‡Ž‹ƒ‰ƒ••—–•Ž‹’’‡‡ǡ

‡•ƒ‰‡ˆƒ–‘”‡”‹’”‘†—•Œ‘•Œ‡†‡„ƒ”‡Šƒ††‡ƒ”‰‹ƒŽ‡˜‹”‹‰‡”Ǥ¤‰”—

ƒ˜•–‘”‡ˆ‘”•Œ‡ŽŽ‡”‹ƒ”‡†•’”‹•‡‡‡ŽŽ‘’‡ŽŽ‡–•‘‰—ŽŽ„Ž‡‘•–ƒ†‡ˆ‘”¤”‡†—•‡”‡

Ž‹ƒ‰ƒ••—–•Ž‹’’‡‡‡•–‹‡”––‹Ž‘–”‡–͸Ͳ̀Ȁ–‘ʹ‡“Ǥ

”–‹‡Ž‡”‡ƒƒŽ›•‡‡†‘” ‘”ƒ˜’‘–‡•‹ƒŽ‡”‘‰‘•–ƒ†‡”˜‡†Ž‹ƒ‰ƒ••–‹Ž–ƒ‹

†‡‘”•‡•‘‰•‡–‘”‡Ǥƒ”„‘‘’’–ƒ‘‰—‰¤––‡Ž‹ƒ‰ƒ••—–•Ž‹’’—–‘˜‡”„‡”‡‰‡–‡

•–”ޏ‡”‹‡–„ƒ•‹••…‡ƒ”‹‘„Ž‡ƒƒŽ›•‡”–ˆ‘”ʹǦ’”‹•‡”ˆ”ƒͳͲͲ–‹ŽͺͲͲȀ–‘ʹ‡“Ǥ

ŽŽ‡•–‘”‡’‘•‹–‹˜‡‘‰‡‰ƒ–‹˜‡ƒ”„‘•–”ޏ‡”‹•‘‰ǡ–”ƒ•’‘”–ǡ’”‘•‡••‡”‹‰ǡ‘•—

‘‰ •—„•–‹–—•Œ‘ ˜ƒ” ‹Ž—†‡”– ‹ †‡––‡ ƒ˜‰‹ˆ–•ǦȀ•—„•‹†‹‡”‡‰‹‡–Ǥ ‘ –›’‡”

ƒ”‡†•‘†‡ŽŽ‡”„Ž‡ƒƒŽ›•‡”–ǣ‡†‘‰‡ƒ”‡†•‘†‡ŽŽŠ˜‘”Ž‹ƒ‰ƒ••–‹Ž–ƒ—‡

ˆ‘”‡–ƒ• ‹ Š‡Ž‡ •‡–‘”‡ǡ ‘‰ ‡ ‡•‘‰‡ ƒ”‡†•‘†‡ŽŽ Š˜‘” ’”‘†—•Œ‘ ‹ ‹†—•–”‹‡ǡ

‹’‘”–‘‰‡•’‘”–˜ƒ”ˆƒ•–•ƒ–––‹Ž‹˜¤‡‡‹„ƒ•‹••…‡ƒ”‹‘‡–Ǥ˜˜‹”‹‰‡—‡˜ƒ”‹‡”‡

ˆ”‹––‹‡ˆ‘”†‹••‡”ƒ‡‡Ǥ‹ˆƒ–•–‘”‡ˆ‘”•Œ‡ŽŽ‡”‹’‘–‡•‹ƒŽ‡”‘‰‘•–ƒ†‡”‡ŽŽ‘

†‡–‘ƒ”‡†•‘†‡ŽŽ‡‡ǡ‡†„‡–›†‡Ž‹‰‡ŠÞ›‡”‡’‘–‡•‹ƒŽ‡”‘‰Žƒ˜‡”‡‘•–ƒ†‡”‹†‡

‡†‘‰‡‡ƒ”‡†•‘†‡ŽŽ‡Ǥ‹†‡”‡ˆƒ–˜‹ƒ–Ž‹ƒ‰ƒ••–‹Ž–ƒ„Ž‡ˆ‘”‡–ƒ––‹Š‡Ž‡•‡–‘”‡

‹ †‡ ‡†‘‰‡‡ ‘†‡ŽŽ‡Ǥ ޏ‡”ƒ˜˜‹”‹‰‡ǡ •’‡•‹‡Ž– –›‹‰ǡ „Ž‡ ”‡†—•‡”– ‘‰

’Žƒ–‹‰‡ ‹–‡•‹˜‡”–Ǥ ƒ••‡˜‹”‡ „Ž‡ ƒŽŽ‘‡”– ˆ”ƒ ’ƒ’‹”Ǧ ‘‰ ƒ••‡’”‘†—•Œ‘ ‘‰

˜‡†‘˜‡”‡†Žƒ˜˜‹”‹‰•‰”ƒ†–‹Ž˜ƒ„¤”‡˜ƒ”‡•›•–‡‡”‡†ŠÞ›˜‹”‹‰•‰”ƒ†Ǥ

ƒ†‡Ž•Ž‡ƒ•Œ‡ ‘’’•–‘ ˜‡† ƒ– ‹’‘”– ‘‰ ‡•’‘”– ‡†”‡– •‡‰ ͳͷǦʹͷΨǤ ‘–‡•‹ƒŽ‡– ˆ‘”

”‡†—•‡”–‡ Ž‹ƒ‰ƒ••—–•Ž‹’’Ȁލ– ƒ”„‘‘’’–ƒ ‹ †‡ ‡†‘‰‡‡ ƒ”‡†•‘†‡ŽŽ‡ ˜ƒ”

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‹ˆÞŽ‰‡”‡•—Ž–ƒ–‡‡‡”‡͹‹ŽŽ‹‘‡”–‘ʹ‡“Ȁ¤””‡‰‡–•‘ƒ—‹–‡–‡†”‡–‡ͶΨ

’ǤƒǤ‹’‡”‹‘†‡ˆ”ƒ‹†ƒ‰–‹ŽʹͲͷͷ˜‡†‡ƒ”„‘’”‹•’¤ͺͲͲȀ–‘ʹ‡“Ǥ

‡•—Ž–ƒ–‡‡ ƒ˜ †‹••‡ ƒ”–‹Ž‡‡ ‹†‹‡”‡” ƒ– †‡ ‘”•‡ •‘‰•‡–‘”‡ Šƒ” ‡– „‡–›†‡Ž‹‰

’‘–‡•‹ƒŽ –‹Ž ¤ ”‡†—•‡”‡ ‘•‡–”ƒ•Œ‘‡ ƒ˜ ƒ–‘•ˆ§”‹• ʹǤ  Žƒ‰•‹–‹‰

„‹‘ލ‘‘‹•‘†‡ŽŽ•‘‹–‡‰”‡”‡”Š‡Ž‡•‡–‘”‡•Ž‹‘” ‘”‰ŒÞ”ǡ•›‡•‰‘†–‡‰‡––‹Ž

¤‡•–‹‡”‡‘•–ƒ†‡”ǡ’‘–‡•‹ƒŽ‡”‘‰˜‹”‹‰‡”ƒ˜’‘Ž‹–‹•‡Ž‹ƒ‰ƒ••–‹Ž–ƒ”‡––‡–‘–

•‡–‘”‡Ǥ

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PAPERIIV

ƒ’‡”ǣ ŒÞŽ‹‡ǡǤǤǡ”ޏ„‘”‰ǡǤǡ‘Ž„‡”‰ǡǤǡ‘Ž‡•ŒÞǡǤ ǤǡʹͲͳͲǤˆˆ‡…–•

ƒ†…‘•–•‘ˆ’‘Ž‹…‹‡•–‘‹…”‡ƒ•‡„‹‘‡‡”‰›—•‡ƒ†”‡†—…‡

‡‹••‹‘•ˆ”‘Š‡ƒ–‹‰‹‘”™ƒ›Ǥ ‘”‡•–‘Ž‹…›ƒ†…‘‘‹…•ͳʹǣͷ͹Ȃ͸͸

ƒ’‡”ǣ ŒÞŽ‹‡ǡǤǤǡƒ––ƒǡǤǤǡ†ƒ•ǡǤǤǡ‘Ž„‡”‰ǡǤǡʹͲͳͳǤ’ƒ…–•‘ˆƒ‰‡–

‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ƒ••—’–‹‘•‹ˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”‘†‡Ž‹‰Ǥ‘—”ƒŽ‘ˆ ‘”‡•–

…‘‘‹…•ͳ͹ȋʹȌǣͳ͸ͻǦͳͺͶ

ƒ’‡”ǣ ŒÞŽ‹‡ǡǤǤǡ‘Ž„‡”‰ǡǤǡʹͲͳͳǤ”‡‡Š‘—•‡‰ƒ•‡‹••‹‘‹’ƒ…–•‘ˆ—•‡‘ˆ

™‘‘†’‡ŽŽ‡–•Ǧƒ•‡•‹–‹˜‹–›ƒƒŽ›•‹•Ǥȋ”‡˜‹‡™Ȍ

ƒ’‡”ǣ ŒÞŽ‹‡ǡǤǤǡƒ––ƒǡǤǤǡ‘„ƒ‡ǡǤǡ‘Ž„‡”‰ǡǤǡʹͲͳͳǤ

‘–‡–‹ƒŽ•ƒ†…‘•–•‘ˆ…Ž‹ƒ–‡…Šƒ‰‡‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘‹–Š‡‘”™‡‰‹ƒˆ‘”‡•–

•‡…–‘”Ǥȋƒ—•…”‹’–Ȍ

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CONTENTS

ͳǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳ ʹǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͶ ʹǤͳ ‘”‡•–ƒ†–Š‡…ƒ”„‘…›…Ž‡ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͶ ʹǤʹ ‘”‡•–•‹–Š‡›‘–‘”‘–‘…‘ŽǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ͸

ʹǤ͵Š‡‘”™‡‰‹ƒˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ͸

ʹǤͶ ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”‘†‡Ž•ƒ†Ž‘‰Ǧ”ƒ‰‡ˆ‘”‡•–ƒƒ‰‡‡–’Žƒ‹‰ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͺ

Š‡‘”‡–‹…ƒŽ„ƒ•‹•ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͺ ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”‘†‡Ž•ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳͲ ʹǤͷŽ‹ƒ–‡…Šƒ‰‡‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘‹–Š‡ˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳ͵

Š‡‘”‡–‹…ƒŽ„ƒ•‹•ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳ͵

–—†‹‡•‘ˆ…‘•–•ƒ†’‘–‡–‹ƒŽ•ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳͶ

͵ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳͺ

͵Ǥͳ‡•…”‹’–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡ˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”‘†‡Ž•ƒ†‘” ‘”ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳͺ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳͺ

‘” ‘”ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤʹͲ

͵Ǥʹ‹‘ƒ••…ƒ”„‘ƒ……‘—–‹‰ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤʹͷ ͶǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤʹ͸

ͷǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ͵ͳ ͷǤͳŠƒ–‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘…ƒˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”‘†‡Ž•’”‘˜‹†‡—•ǫǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ͵ͳ ‘”‡•‹‰Š–‹ˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”‘†‡Ž•ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ͵ͳ ‘”‡•–ƒƒ‰‡‡–ƒ†–‹„‡”•—’’Ž›ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ͵͵

‘†‡Ž‹‰‹†—•–”›ƒ††‡ƒ†ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ͵Ͷ

–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽƒ”‡–ƒ†–”ƒ†‡ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ͵ͷ

‹‘‡‡”‰›†‡ƒ†ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ͵͸

ͷǤʹ‘•‹‘”–‘„—”–Š‡‘”™‡‰‹ƒˆ‘”‡•–•ǫǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ͵͹

ͷǤ͵…‡”–ƒ‹ƒ†‘‹––‡†ˆƒ…–‘”•ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ͵ͻ ͷǤͶ —–—”‡”‡•‡ƒ”…ŠǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͶͲ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͶ͵

ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͷ͹

Appendices:PaperIIV

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ͳ 1INTRODUCTION

Ž‹ƒ–‡…Šƒ‰‡…ƒ—•‡†„›–Š‡ƒ……——Žƒ–‹‘‘ˆ‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡‰ƒ•‡•‹–Š‡ƒ–‘•’Š‡”‡‹•ƒ

Š‹‰ŠŽ›‹’‘”–ƒ––‘’‹…‹•‘…‹‡–›Ǥ ‘”‡•–•’Žƒ›‹’‘”–ƒ–”‘Ž‡•ǡ„‘–Š‹–Š‡…ƒ”„‘…›…Ž‡

ƒ†ˆ‘”–Š‡’‘••‹„‹Ž‹–‹‡•ˆ‘”‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘ǤŠ‡ƒ–—”ƒŽ…ƒ”„‘ˆŽ—š„‡–™‡‡–Š‡–‡””‡•–”‹ƒŽ

•›•–‡• ƒ† –Š‡ ƒ–‘•’Š‡”‡ ‹• ƒŽ‘•– •‹š –‹‡• –Š‡ ‡‹••‹‘• ˆ”‘ ˆ‘••‹Ž ˆ—‡Ž

…‘„—•–‹‘ƒ†…‡‡–’”‘†—…–‹‘ȋƒ–•‘‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͲͲȌǡƒ†ͻͲΨ‘ˆ–Š‹•ˆŽ—š‹•™‹–Š‹

–Š‡ˆ‘”‡•–•ȋ‹Œ—‡–ƒŽǤǡͳͻͻ͵ȌǤ

‡…‡–‡•–‹ƒ–‡•‘ˆ‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡‰ƒ•‡‹••‹‘•ˆ”‘†‡ˆ‘”‡•–ƒ–‹‘ƒ†Žƒ††‡‰”ƒ†ƒ–‹‘

‹…Ž—†‡ͳǤ͸‰Ȁ›‡ƒ”‹–Š‡ͳͻͻͲ•ȋ‡ƒ‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͲ͹Ȍǡƒ†ͳǤͷ‰Ȁ›‡ƒ”ȋ‘—‰Š–‘ǡ ʹͲͲͺȌ ƒ† ͲǤͶǦͳ ‰ Ȁ›‡ƒ” ȋƒ””‹• ‡– ƒŽǤǡ ʹͲͳͲȌ ˆ‘” –Š‡ ›‡ƒ”• ʹͲͲͲǦʹͲͲͷǤ Š‡

…‘–”‹„—–‹‘‘ˆ‡‹••‹‘•ˆ”‘Žƒ†—•‡Ǧ„ƒ•‡†ƒ…–‹˜‹–‹‡•–‘–‘–ƒŽ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡‰ƒ•

‡‹••‹‘•˜ƒ”‹‡•ˆ”‘ͷǦͳʹΨȋƒ””‹•‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͳͲȌ–‘ͳͺΨ‹–Š‡•‡‡•–‹ƒ–‡•ȋ‡ƒ‡–

ƒŽǤǡ ʹͲͲ͹ȌǤ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ ‹ –‘–ƒŽǡ –Š‡ ™‘”Ž†ǯ• ˆ‘”‡•–• ƒ”‡ …ƒ”„‘ •‹• ™‹–Š ƒ ’‘•‹–‹˜‡ ‡–

ƒ……——Žƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ …ƒ”„‘ǡ ™‹–Š ƒŽ‘•– ‘‡Ǧ–Š‹”† ‘ˆ ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ ‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡ ‰ƒ• ‡‹••‹‘•

‡†‹‰ —’ ‹ –‡””‡•–”‹ƒŽ •›•–‡• ȋƒ„——”• ‡– ƒŽǤǡ ʹͲͲ͹ƒȌǤ  ‹’‘”–ƒ– ’ƒ”– ‘ˆ –Š‹•

ƒ……——Žƒ–‹‘–ƒ‡•’Žƒ…‡‹„‘”‡ƒŽˆ‘”‡•–•ȋƒ”‹‡–‘‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͳͲȌǡ™Š‹…Š‹•–Š‡„‹‘‡

™‹–Š–Š‡Žƒ”‰‡•–…ƒ”„‘•–‘”ƒ‰‡‹–Š‡™‘”Ž†ȋƒ–•‘‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͲͲȌǤ

‘”™ƒ›ǡ‹–‡•‹˜‡’Žƒ–‹‰ƒ†ƒˆˆ‘”‡•–ƒ–‹‘„‡–™‡‡ͳͻͷͲƒ†ͳͻͻͲǡ‹…‘„‹ƒ–‹‘

™‹–Š ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡Ž› •–ƒ„Ž‡ Šƒ”˜‡•– Ž‡˜‡Ž• ‘˜‡” –Š‡ Žƒ•– ˆ‡™ †‡…ƒ†‡•ǡ Šƒ˜‡ ”‡•—Ž–‡† ‹ ‡–

…ƒ”„‘ •‡“—‡•–”ƒ–‹‘ ‹ ˆ‘”‡•–• ‡“—ƒŽ‹‰ ‘”‡ –Šƒ ŠƒŽˆ ‘ˆ –Š‡ …—””‡– ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ

‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡ ‰ƒ• ‡‹••‹‘•Ǥ ˜‡ ™‹–Š ƒ …‘–‹—ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ ”‡…‡– Šƒ”˜‡•– Ž‡˜‡Ž•ǡ –Š‡

ƒ……——Žƒ–‹‘ ”ƒ–‡ ‹• ’”‘Œ‡…–‡† –‘ †‡…Ž‹‡ †—‡ –‘ ”‡†—…‡† ‹˜‡•–‡–• ‹ ˆ‘”‡•–”›Ǥ

‡˜‡”–Š‡Ž‡••ǡ–Š‡ˆ‘”‡•–•™‹ŽŽ„‡ƒƒŒ‘”ˆƒ…–‘”‹–Š‡‘”™‡‰‹ƒ‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡‰ƒ•ƒ……‘—–

ƒŽ•‘‹–Š‡ˆ—–—”‡ȋŠ‡‘”™‡‰‹ƒŽ‹ƒ–‡ƒ†‘ŽŽ—–‹‘‰‡…›ǡʹͲͳͲȌǤ

”ƒ‰‡‘ˆ•–—†‹‡•‘†‹ˆˆ‡”‡–•…ƒŽ‡•™‹–Šƒ˜ƒ”‹‡–›‘ˆ†‹ˆˆ‡”‡–ƒ’’”‘ƒ…Š‡•Šƒ˜‡„‡‡

…ƒ””‹‡†‘—––‘ƒ••‡••–Š‡…‘•–•ƒ†’‘–‡–‹ƒŽ•‘ˆ…Ž‹ƒ–‡…Šƒ‰‡‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘‹–Š‡ˆ‘”‡•–

•‡…–‘”Ǥ Š‡ ‰‡‡”ƒŽ …‘•‡•—• ‹• –Šƒ– –Š‡ •‡…–‘” Šƒ• ƒ Žƒ”‰‡ ’‘–‡–‹ƒŽ –‘ …‘–”‹„—–‡ –‘

‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘ǡ ‹ ƒ††‹–‹‘ –‘ ”‡†—…‹‰ –Š‡ ‘˜‡”ƒŽŽ …‘•– ‘ˆ ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘Ǥ ”‘Ž‘‰‡† ”‘–ƒ–‹‘•ǡ

ƒˆˆ‘”‡•–ƒ–‹‘ǡ‹–‡•‹ˆ‹‡†’Žƒ–‹‰ƒ†‘–Š‡”…Šƒ‰‡•‹ˆ‘”‡•–ƒƒ‰‡‡–…ƒ‹…”‡ƒ•‡

…ƒ”„‘•‡“—‡•–”ƒ–‹‘ȋƒ„——”•‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͲ͹ƒȌǤ‹‘‡‡”‰›…ƒ”‡†—…‡‘˜‡”ƒŽŽ‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡

‰ƒ• ‡‹••‹‘• „› ”‡’Žƒ…‹‰ ˆ‘••‹Ž ˆ—‡Ž• ȋ‹• ‡– ƒŽǤǡ ʹͲͲ͹Ȍ ƒ† ™‘‘† ƒ–‡”‹ƒŽ• „›

•—„•–‹–—–‹‰ˆ‘”‘Ǧ”‡‡™ƒ„Ž‡ƒ–‡”‹ƒŽ••—…Šƒ•…‘…”‡–‡ƒ†•–‡‡Žȋ—•–ƒ˜••‘‡–ƒŽǤǡ ʹͲͲ͸ȌǤ

‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘ƒƒŽ›•‡•‘ˆ–Š‡ˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”…ƒˆ‘”•‹’Ž‹ˆ‹…ƒ–‹‘„‡‰”‘—’‡†ƒ•ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™•ǣ x ‹‘‡‡”‰› •–—†‹‡•ǣ –Š‡•‡ ‘ˆ–‡ …‘‡ ™‹–Š †‡–ƒ‹Ž‡† …‘•–• ƒ† –‡…Š‘Ž‘‰‹‡•ǡ „—–

™‹–Š Ž‹‹–‡† ‹…Ž—•‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ƒ”‡–•ǡ ƒ† ™‘‘† ‹• –›’‹…ƒŽŽ› •‡‡ ƒ• …ƒ”„‘

‡—–”ƒŽȋ‡Ǥ‰Ǥ—•–ƒ˜••‘ƒ†ƒ†Ž‡‡”ǡʹͲͲ͵Ǣƒ›‡”ǡʹͲͲ͸ȌǢ

ʹ

x ‘”‡•– ƒƒ‰‡‡– •–—†‹‡•ǣ –Š‡•‡ ’”‡•‡– †‡–ƒ‹Ž‡† ”‡’”‡•‡–ƒ–‹‘• ‘ˆ ˆ‘”‡•–

‰”‘™–Šƒ†ƒƒ‰‡‡–ǡ„—–™‹–Š‡š‘‰‡‘—•’”‹…‡•ƒ†—–‹Ž‹œƒ–‹‘‘ˆ™‘‘†ȋ‡Ǥ‰Ǥ

ƒ…±—•‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͲͷǢ‘‡ƒ†‘Ž„‡”‰ǡͳͻͻͶǢƒ›‡”‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͲͻȌǢ

x –—†‹‡• —•‹‰ Žƒ”‰‡Ǧ•…ƒŽ‡ ˆ‘”‡•– •‡…–‘” ƒ† ‘†‡Ž•^ͳǣ –Š‡•‡ ƒ› …‘˜‡” ƒ

‡–‹”‡ …‘–‹‡– ‘” –Š‡ ‰Ž‘„‡ ™‹–Š ‡†‘‰‡‘—• ˆ‘”‡•– ƒƒ‰‡‡– ƒ† ™‘‘†

ƒ”‡–•ǡ ƒ† ƒ”‡ ‘ˆ–‡ ”ƒ–Š‡” ƒ‰‰”‡‰ƒ–‡† †—‡ –‘ –Š‡ •…ƒŽ‡ ȋ‡Ǥ‰Ǥ ƒ‡ƒ ƒ†

‹•…Š‡”ǡʹͲͲ͸Ǣƒ–Šƒ›‡‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͲ͸Ǣ‡†Œ‘‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͲͳȌ

ŽŽ‘ˆ–Š‡ƒˆ‘”‡‡–‹‘‡†–›’‡•‘ˆ•–—†‹‡•Šƒ˜‡•–”‡‰–Š•ƒ††‹•ƒ†˜ƒ–ƒ‰‡•Ǥ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ

‘‡‰‡‡”ƒŽ™‡ƒ‡••‹…Ž‹ƒ–‡…Šƒ‰‡‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘ƒ••‡••‡–•‘ˆ–Š‡ˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”‹•

–Š‡ Žƒ… ‘ˆ Ž‹• „‡–™‡‡ –Š‡ †‹ˆˆ‡”‡– ƒ’’”‘ƒ…Š‡•Ǥ ‹…‡ –Š‡”‡ ‹• ƒ –”ƒ†‡Ǧ‘ˆˆ „‡–™‡‡

‹…”‡ƒ•‹‰–Š‡…ƒ”„‘•‡“—‡•–”ƒ–‹‘‹–Š‡ˆ‘”‡•–ƒ†–Š‡—–‹Ž‹œƒ–‹‘‘ˆ™‘‘†’”‘†—…–•ǡ

–Š‡•‡ ƒ•’‡…–• ™‘—Ž† „‡ „‡––‡” ƒƒŽ›œ‡† •‹—Ž–ƒ‡‘—•Ž›Ǥ —”–Š‡”‘”‡ǡ ˆ‘” ƒŽŽ …Ž‹ƒ–‡

…Šƒ‰‡ ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘ ’‘Ž‹…‹‡•ǡ ™Š‡–Š‡” –ƒ”‰‡–‡† –‘ •–‹—Žƒ–‡ …ƒ”„‘ •‡“—‡•–”ƒ–‹‘ ‘” –Š‡

—•‡ ‘ˆ ™‘‘† ’”‘†—…–•ǡ ƒ —†‡”•–ƒ†‹‰ ‘ˆ Š‘™ –Š‡ ”‡Ž‡˜ƒ– ƒ”‡–• ˆ—…–‹‘ ‹•

‹’‘”–ƒ–‹‘”†‡”–‘”‡ƒŽ‹•–‹…ƒŽŽ›‡•–‹ƒ–‡…‘•–•ƒ†’‘–‡–‹ƒŽ•Ǥ

Š‡’ƒ”–‹…—Žƒ”Ž›Ž‘‰–‹‡Žƒ‰„‡–™‡‡‹˜‡•–‡–ƒ†”‡–—”ˆ‘”–Š‡ˆ‘”‡•–‘™‡”•ƒ†

–Š‡ Ž‡‰–Š› …ƒ”„‘ ‹’ƒ…–• ‘ˆ ˆ‘”‡•– ƒƒ‰‡‡– †‡…‹•‹‘• ƒ‡ Ž‘‰Ǧ”ƒ‰‡

’”‘Œ‡…–‹‘•‹’‘”–ƒ–‹–Š‡ˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”Ǥ‹‹‰–Š‡‡…‘‘‹…•‹–Š‡•‡…–‘”–‹‰Š–Ž›–‘

–Š‡„‹‘Ž‘‰‹…ƒŽ„ƒ•‹•™‹ŽŽƒŽ•‘’”‘˜‹†‡ƒˆ”ƒ‡™‘”ˆ‘”†‡–ƒ‹Ž‡†•–—†‹‡•‘ˆƒ†ƒ’–ƒ–‹‘•–‘

’‘Ž‹…› ƒ† ƒ”‡– •Š‹ˆ–•ǡ ƒ† …‘””‡•’‘†‹‰ …‘•–•Ǥ Š‹• –Š‡•‹• ‹• ƒ ƒ––‡’– ‹ –Šƒ–

†‹”‡…–‹‘ǡ™‹–Š–Š‡ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰ƒ‹‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡•ǣ

x ‡˜‡Ž‘’ƒ„‹‘Ǧ‡…‘‘‹…‘†‡Ž‘ˆ–Š‡‘”™‡‰‹ƒˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”™‹–Š‡†‘‰‡‘—•

ˆ‘”‡•– ‰”‘™–Š ƒ† ƒƒ‰‡‡–ǡ Šƒ”˜‡•–•ǡ ‹†—•–”‹ƒŽ ’”‘…‡••‹‰ǡ †‡ƒ† ˆ‘”

ƒ—ˆƒ…–—”‡†’”‘†—…–•ǡ–”ƒ†‡ƒ†ƒ†‡–ƒ‹Ž‡†…ƒ”„‘ƒ……‘—–‘ˆƒŽŽ–Š‡•‡˜ƒ”‹‘—•

’ƒ”–•Ǥ—…Šƒ‘†‡Ž•Š‘—Ž†„‡•—‹–ƒ„Ž‡ˆ‘”•–—†›‹‰‹’ƒ…–•‘ˆ…Šƒ‰‡•‹‡š–‡”ƒŽ

‡…‘‘‹…ƒ†’‘Ž‹…›ˆƒ…–‘”•ǡ‹–‡”ƒŽ‹ƒ…ƒ”„‘’‘Ž‹…‹‡•Ǥ

x –—†›Š‘™–Š‡ˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”‹‘”™ƒ›…ƒ…‘–”‹„—–‡–‘™ƒ”†•–Š‡‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ

…Ž‹ƒ–‡ …Šƒ‰‡ǡ „‘–Š „› ƒ’’Ž›‹‰ –Š‡ ‘†‡Ž ‡–‹‘‡† ƒ„‘˜‡ ƒ† „› ‘–Š‡”

ƒ’’”‘ƒ…Š‡•Ǥ

Š‡–Š‡•‹•‹••–”—…–—”‡†‹–Š‡ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰™ƒ›ǣ–Š‡‡š–…Šƒ’–‡”’”‘˜‹†‡•ƒ†‡•…”‹’–‹‘‘ˆ

–Š‡ ˆ‘”‡•–•ǯ ”‘Ž‡ ‹ –Š‡ …ƒ”„‘ …›…Ž‡ ƒ† ƒ •Š‘”– ’”‡•‡–ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ –Š‡ ‘”™‡‰‹ƒ ˆ‘”‡•–

•‡…–‘”Ǥ„”‹‡ˆ‹–”‘†—…–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡–Š‡‘”‡–‹…ƒŽ„ƒ•‹•„‡Š‹†ˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”‘†‡Ž‹‰‹•–Š‡

‰‹˜‡ǡˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‡†„›ƒ‘˜‡”˜‹‡™‘ˆˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”‘†‡Ž•†‡˜‡Ž‘’‡†„‘–Š‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽŽ›

ƒ† ™‹–Š‹ ‘”™ƒ›Ǥ ‡š–ǡ ”‡Ž‡˜ƒ– •–—†‹‡• ‘ …‘•–• ƒ† ’‘–‡–‹ƒŽ• ‘ˆ …Ž‹ƒ–‡ …Šƒ‰‡

‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘‹–Š‡ˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”ƒ”‡”‡˜‹‡™‡†ǤŠƒ’–‡”͵ǡ–Š‡‡–Š‘†•—•‡†‹–Š‡ˆ‘—”

–Š‡•‹• ’ƒ’‡”• ƒ”‡ †‡•…”‹„‡†Ǥ  –Š‡ †‡•…”‹’–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡ –™‘ ˆ‘”‡•– •‡…–‘” ‘†‡Ž•ǡ ƒ

‡’Šƒ•‹•‹•’—–‘‘” ‘”ǡ–Š‡‘†‡Ž†‡˜‡Ž‘’‡†ƒ•’ƒ”–‘ˆ–Š‹•–Š‡•‹•ǤŠƒ’–‡”Ͷǡ–Š‡

ͳ‘†‡Žα…‘’—–‡”‹œ‡†‰‡‡”ƒŽ‡“—‹Ž‹„”‹—‘†‡ŽǤ

͵

ƒ‹”‡•—Ž–•‘ˆ‡ƒ…Š‘ˆ–Š‡ˆ‘—”’ƒ’‡”•ƒ”‡’”‡•‡–‡†ǡƒ†Šƒ’–‡”ͷ’”‘˜‹†‡•ƒ‘˜‡”ƒŽŽ

•›–Š‡•‹•ƒ††‹•…—••‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡”‡•—Ž–•Ǥƒ•–Ž›ǡ–Š‡ˆ‘—”–Š‡•‹•’ƒ’‡”•ƒ”‡’”‡•‡–‡†‹

’’‡†‹…‡•ǦǤ

Ͷ

2BACKGROUNDANDTHEORETICALBASIS 2.1Forestandthecarboncycle

Š‡™‘”Ž†ǯ•ˆ‘”‡•–•ƒ”‡ƒ‡••‡–‹ƒŽ’ƒ”–‘ˆ–Š‡‰Ž‘„ƒŽ…ƒ”„‘…›…Ž‡Ǥ„‘—–ͺͲΨ‘ˆ–Š‡

™‘”Ž†ǯ•„‹‘ƒ••‹•‹ˆ‘”‡•–•ǡƒ†–Š‡…ƒ”„‘•–‘”ƒ‰‡‹–Š‡•‘‹Ž‹•’”‘„ƒ„Ž›Š‹‰Š‡”–Šƒ

‹ –Š‡ „‹‘ƒ•• ȋ‹†‡”ƒ ‡– ƒŽǤǡ ʹͲͲͺǢ ‘”‡œ ƒ† ƒŽǡ ʹͲͳͲȌǤ Š‡ ’”‡‹†—•–”‹ƒŽ

…ƒ”„‘Ž‡˜‡Ž‹–Š‡–‡””‡•–”‹ƒŽ„‹‘•’Š‡”‡Šƒ•„‡‡‡•–‹ƒ–‡†–‘ƒ„‘—–ʹ͵ͲͲ‰ǡƒŽ‘•–

ˆ‘—” –‹‡• ‰”‡ƒ–‡” –Šƒ –Š‡ ’”‡‹†—•–”‹ƒŽ ƒ–‘•’Š‡”‹… …ƒ”„‘ Ž‡˜‡ŽǤ ‹…‡ –Š‡ǡ ƒ

‡•–‹ƒ–‡†ͳͶͲ‰Šƒ•„‡‡Ž‘•–ˆ”‘–‡””‡•–”‹ƒŽ…ƒ”„‘’‘‘Ž•†—‡–‘Žƒ†Ǧ—•‡…Šƒ‰‡•

ȋ‘”‡œƒ†ƒŽǡʹͲͳͲȌǤ–Š‡’‡”‹‘†ˆ”‘ͳͺͷͲ–‘ͳͻͻͺǡƒ‡•–‹ƒ–‡†͵͵Ψ‘ˆƒŽŽ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ

‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡ ‰ƒ• ‡‹••‹‘• •–‡‡† ˆ”‘ –Š‡ Žƒ† —•‡ǡ Žƒ†Ǧ—•‡ …Šƒ‰‡ ƒ† ˆ‘”‡•–”›

ȋ Ȍ•‡…–‘”ȋƒ–•‘‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͲͲȌǤ‡–™‡‡ͷƒ†ͳͺΨ‘ˆ–Š‡‰Ž‘„ƒŽ‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡‰ƒ•

‡‹••‹‘• ƒ”‡ ‡•–‹ƒ–‡† –‘ „‡ ˆ”‘ –Š‹• •‡…–‘” ȋƒ””‹• ‡– ƒŽǤǡ ʹͲͳͲǢ ‘—‰Š–‘ǡ ʹͲͲͺǢ

ƒ„——”•‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͲ͹ƒȌǡƒŽ‘•–ƒŽŽ‘ˆ™Š‹…Šƒ”‡ˆ”‘Žƒ††‡‰”ƒ†ƒ–‹‘ƒ††‡ˆ‘”‡•–ƒ–‹‘

‹–”‘’‹…ƒŽƒ”‡ƒ•ȋ ǡʹͲͳͲȌǤ

Š‡ ƒ–—”ƒŽ …ƒ”„‘ ˆŽ—š „‡–™‡‡ –Š‡ „‹‘•’Š‡”‡ ƒ† –Š‡ ƒ–‘•’Š‡”‡ ȋ‡– ’”‹ƒ”›

’”‘†—…–‹‘Ȍƒ‘—–•–‘”‘—‰ŠŽ›͸Ͳ‰’‡”›‡ƒ”ǡ…‘’ƒ”‡†–‘ƒ—ƒŽ‡‹••‹‘•ˆ”‘

–Š‡—•‡‘ˆˆ‘••‹Žˆ—‡Ž•ƒ†–Š‡’”‘†—…–‹‘‘ˆ…‡‡–‘ˆ͸Ǥ͵‰ȋƒ–•‘‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͲͲȌǤ ͻͲΨ‘ˆ–Š‡‰Ž‘„ƒŽ…ƒ”„‘ˆŽ—š„‡–™‡‡–‡””‡•–”‹ƒŽ•›•–‡•ƒ†–Š‡ƒ–‘•’Š‡”‡‘……—”•‹

ˆ‘”‡•–• ȋ‹Œ— ‡– ƒŽǤǡ ͳͻͻ͵ȌǤ ʹ ‡‹••‹‘• ˆ”‘ ˆ‘••‹Ž ˆ—‡Ž …‘„—•–‹‘ǡ …‡‡–

’”‘†—…–‹‘ ƒ† Žƒ†Ǧ—•‡ †‡‰”ƒ†ƒ–‹‘ ƒ† †‡ˆ‘”‡•–ƒ–‹‘ ‡† —’ ‹ –Š”‡‡ ’‘‘Ž•Ǣ

ƒ’’”‘š‹ƒ–‡Ž› ͶʹΨ ƒ”‡ ‡•–‹ƒ–‡† ƒ• „‡‹‰ ’Žƒ…‡† ƒ• Š‹‰Š‡” ƒ–‘•’Š‡”‹… ʹ …‘…‡–”ƒ–‹‘ǡ™Š‹Ž‡‘…‡ƒ•ƒ† –‡””‡•–”‹ƒŽ‡…‘•›•–‡•‡ƒ…Šƒ„•‘”„ƒ„‘—–ʹͻΨ‘ˆ–Š‡

‡‹••‹‘•ȋƒ–•‘‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͲͲȌǤ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ–Š‡”‡‹•ƒŠ‹‰Š†‡‰”‡‡‘ˆ—…‡”–ƒ‹–›‹–Š‡•‡

ˆ‹‰—”‡•ȋ‡ƒ‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͲ͹ȌǤ

Š‡ ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ ‡– –‡””‡•–”‹ƒŽ —’–ƒ‡ ‘ˆ …ƒ”„‘ǡ …ƒŽ…—Žƒ–‡† ƒ• ‡‹••‹‘• ˆ”‘ ˆ‘••‹Ž ˆ—‡Ž

…‘„—•–‹‘ƒ†…‡‡–’”‘†—…–‹‘‹—•ƒ……——Žƒ–‹‘‹–Š‡ƒ–‘•’Š‡”‡ƒ†‘…‡ƒ•ǡ

™ƒ• ‡•–‹ƒ–‡† –‘ „‡ ƒ„‘—– ͲǤ͹ ‰ Ȁ›‡ƒ” ‹ –Š‡ ͳͻͻͲ•ǡ „—– ™‹–Š –Š‡ ͻͲΨ …‘ˆ‹†‡…‡

‹–‡”˜ƒŽ‡“—ƒŽ‹‰ͳǤͲȋƒ–•‘‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͲͲȌǤ‘™‡˜‡”ǡƒ††‹‰ƒ‡•–‹ƒ–‡†ͳǤ͸‰Ȁ›‡ƒ”

ˆ”‘†‡ˆ‘”‡•–ƒ–‹‘ƒ†Žƒ††‡‰”ƒ†ƒ–‹‘Ž‡ƒ†•–‘ƒ•‘Ǧ…ƒŽŽ‡†”‡•‹†—ƒŽ–‡””‡•–”‹ƒŽ—’–ƒ‡

‘ˆ ʹǤ͵ ‰ Ȁ›‡ƒ” ȋ ‹‰—”‡ ͳȌǤ Š‹• ‹• ”‡•‹†—ƒŽ ‹ –Š‡ •‡•‡ –Šƒ– ‹– ‹• –Š‡ ƒ‘—– ‘ˆ ʹ

”‡‘˜‡† ˆ”‘ –Š‡ ƒ–‘•’Š‡”‡ ™Š‹…Š Šƒ• ‘– „‡‡ ƒ„•‘”„‡† „› –Š‡ ‘…‡ƒ•ǡ „—– –Š‡

ƒ…–—ƒŽ‡š…Šƒ‰‡•„‡Š‹†–Š‹••‡“—‡•–”ƒ–‹‘ƒ”‡—…Ž‡ƒ”ȋ‘‘ƒ†–ƒ‰ŽǡʹͲͲͷȌǤŠ—•ǡ

†‡•’‹–‡–Š‡Žƒ”‰‡—…‡”–ƒ‹–›‹–Š‡•‡ˆ‹‰—”‡•ƒ†ƒ—ƒŽˆŽ—…–—ƒ–‹‘•†—‡–‘…Šƒ‰‹‰

…Ž‹ƒ–‹……‘†‹–‹‘•ǡ–Š‡™‘”Ž†ǯ•‡…‘•›•–‡•ƒ”‡ƒ••—‡†–‘‘”‡–Šƒ‘ˆˆ•‡––Š‡

‡‹••‹‘•Ǥ

ͷ

Figure 1: Carbon stocks (Pg) and fluxes (Pg/yr). Fluxes are indicated with arrows. Source: Grace (2004).

Š‡ ‡‹••‹‘• ˆ”‘ Žƒ†Ǧ—•‡ …Šƒ‰‡• ƒ› „‡ ‘˜‡”‡•–‹ƒ–‡† ȋƒ””‹• ‡– ƒŽǤǡ ʹͲͲͻȌǤ

ƒ–•‘ ‡– ƒŽǤ ȋʹͲͲͲȌ ƒ••—‡† –Šƒ– –Š‡ ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ …ƒ”„‘ •‡“—‡•–”ƒ–‹‘ ”ƒ–‡ ‹…”‡ƒ•‡† „›

ƒ’’”‘š‹ƒ–‡Ž› ʹͲΨ ˆ”‘ –Š‡ ͳͻͺͲ• –‘ ͳͻͻͲ•ǡ „—– ‘”‡ ”‡…‡– ‡•–‹ƒ–‡• ƒ”‡

…‘•‹†‡”ƒ„Ž›Š‹‰Š‡”Ǥ‡ƒ‡–ƒŽǤȋʹͲͲ͹Ȍƒ†ƒ”‹‡–‘‡–ƒŽǤȋʹͲͳͲȌˆ‘—†–Š‡‰Ž‘„ƒŽ

Žƒ†Ǧ—•‡•‹–‘Šƒ˜‡‹…”‡ƒ•‡†„›ͲǤͻǦͳ‰Ȁ›‡ƒ”„‡–™‡‡–Š‡ͳͻͺͲ•ƒ†ͳͻͻͲ•Ǥ•‹‰

–Š‡‡•–‹ƒ–‡•‘ˆƒ”‹‡–‘‡–ƒŽǤȋʹͲͳͲȌǡͳ‰…‘””‡•’‘†•–‘”‘—‰ŠŽ›ͳʹΨ‘ˆƒ—ƒŽ

‡‹••‹‘•ˆ”‘ˆ‘••‹Žˆ—‡Ž•ǡ…‡‡–’”‘†—…–‹‘ƒ†Žƒ†—•‡Ǥ

Š‡ „‘”‡ƒŽ ˆ‘”‡•–•ƒ”‡–Š‡ „‹‘‡ ™‹–Š –Š‡ Žƒ”‰‡•– …ƒ”„‘ •–‘…ǡ …‘–ƒ‹‹‰ ‘”‡ –Šƒ

ʹͲΨ‘ˆ–Š‡™‘”Ž†ǯ•–‡””‡•–”‹ƒŽ…ƒ”„‘‹Ž‡••–ŠƒͳͲΨ‘ˆ–Š‡™‘”Ž†ǯ•Žƒ†ƒ”‡ƒǤͳͷΨ‘ˆ

–Š‡…ƒ”„‘‹•…‘–ƒ‹‡†‹˜‡‰‡–ƒ–‹‘ǡ™‹–Š–Š‡”‡ƒ‹†‡”‹•‘‹Žȋƒ–•‘‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͲͲȌǤ

Š‡ ‘”–Š‡” ‡‹•’Š‡”‡ ‹• ƒŽ•‘ ƒ••‡••‡† –‘ „‡ ƒ ƒŒ‘” …ƒ”„‘ •‹ǡ ™‹–Š …ƒ”„‘

—’–ƒ‡‡“—ƒŽ‹‰ͲǤͷ‰Ȁ›‡ƒ”‹–‡’‡”ƒ–‡ƒ†„‘”‡ƒŽœ‘‡•‹‡ƒ…Š‘ˆ–Š‡—”ƒ•‹ƒƒ†

‘”–Š ‡”‹…ƒ …‘–‹‡–• ȋƒ”‹‡–‘ ‡– ƒŽǤǡ ʹͲͳͲȌǤ  –Š‡ ‡ƒ”Ž› ͳͻͻͲ•ǡ ‡–

ƒ……——Žƒ–‹‘‹–Š‡—”‘’‡ƒˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”™ƒ•‡˜ƒŽ—ƒ–‡†ƒ–ͲǤͳͶ‰ǡ‘ˆ™Š‹…Š͸ͶΨ™ƒ•

ƒ††‡†–‘Ž‹˜‹‰˜‡‰‡–ƒ–‹‘ǡͳͶΨ–‘•‘‹Žƒ†͹Ψ–‘‡ƒ…Š‘ˆ–Š‡–Š”‡‡’‘‘Ž•‘ˆ†‡ƒ†™‘‘†ǡ

–Š‡ˆ‘”‡•–ˆŽ‘‘”ƒ†ˆ‘”‡•–’”‘†—…–•ȋ‘‘†ƒŽ‡‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͲʹȌǤŠ‡—”‘’‡ƒˆ‘”‡•–ƒ”‡ƒ‹•

͸

‡š’ƒ†‹‰ǡ„—––Š‡ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡‡š’ƒ•‹‘”ƒ–‡†‡…Ž‹‡†ˆ”‘ͺ͹͹ͲͲͲŠ‡…–ƒ”‡•Ȁ›‡ƒ”‹–Š‡

ͳͻͻͲ•–‘͸͹͸ͲͲͲŠ‡…–ƒ”‡•Ȁ›‡ƒ”‹–Š‡›‡ƒ”•ʹͲͲͲǦʹͲͳͲȋ ǡʹͲͳͲȌǤ

‡˜‡”ƒŽ •–—†‹‡• Šƒ˜‡ ˆ‘—† ‡˜‹†‡…‡ ‘ˆ ‹…”‡ƒ•‡† ’Žƒ– ‰”‘™–Š ‹ –Š‡ „‘”‡ƒŽ ƒ†

–‡’‡”ƒ–‡œ‘‡•‹—”‘’‡Ǥ’‹‡…‡”ȋͳͻͻͻȌ•Š‘™•–Šƒ–—‡”‘—••–—†‹‡•Šƒ˜‡ˆ‘—†

‹…”‡ƒ•‡†’”‘†—…–‹˜‹–›‹ƒ›—”‘’‡ƒˆ‘”‡•–•‹–‡•ǡ’ƒ”–‹…—Žƒ”Ž›‹…‡–”ƒŽ—”‘’‡Ǥ

•‘‡•‹–‡•ǡ˜‘Ž—‡‰”‘™–Š’”‘†—…–‹˜‹–›Šƒ•‹…”‡ƒ•‡†„›‘”‡–ŠƒͷͲΨ‘˜‡”–Š‡Žƒ•–

†‡…ƒ†‡•Ǥ‡•—‰‰‡•–•–Šƒ––Š‹•‹…”‡ƒ•‡‹ˆ‘”‡•–‰”‘™–Š‹•…ƒ—•‡†„›ˆ‘”‡•–ƒƒ‰‡‡–

ƒ†ƒŽ–‡”‡†•’‡…‹‡•…‘’‘•‹–‹‘ǡ‹ƒ††‹–‹‘–‘ƒŠ‹‰Š‡”ƒ–‘•’Š‡”‹……‘…‡–”ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ

ʹ ƒ† ‹–”‘‰‡Ǥ ›‡‹ ‡– ƒŽǤ ȋͳͻͻ͹Ȍ ˆ‘—† „› —•‹‰ •ƒ–‡ŽŽ‹–‡ †ƒ–ƒ –Šƒ– ƒ ‡ƒ”Ž‹‡”

‘……—””‡…‡ ‘ˆ •’”‹‰ ˆ”‘ ͳͻͺͳ –‘ ͳͻͻͳ Šƒ• Ž‡‰–Š‡‡† –Š‡ ‰”‘™‹‰ •‡ƒ•‘ ‹ –Š‡

‘”–Š‡”‡‹•’Š‡”‡ǡ™Š‹…Š–Š‡ƒ—–Š‘”•”‡Žƒ–‡–‘‰Ž‘„ƒŽ™ƒ”‹‰Ǥ’Š‡‘Ž‘‰‹…ƒŽ•–—†›

‘ˆ –”‡‡ ‰”‘™–Š ‹ —”‘’‡ ‹†‹…ƒ–‡• –Šƒ– –Š‡ ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ ƒ—ƒŽ ‰”‘™‹‰ •‡ƒ•‘ Šƒ• „‡‡

‡š–‡†‡†„›ƒŽ‘•–ͳͳ†ƒ›•ˆ”‘–Š‡‡ƒ”Ž›ͳͻ͸Ͳ•–‘–Š‡Žƒ–‡ͳͻͻͲ•ǡ™Š‹…Š…ƒƒŽ•‘„‡

ƒ––”‹„—–‡†–‘ƒ™ƒ”‡”…Ž‹ƒ–‡ȋ‡œ‡Žƒ† ƒ„‹ƒǡͳͻͻͻȌǤ

2.2ForestsintheKyotoProtocol

Š‡ ƒ””ƒ‡•Š ‡‡–‹‰ ‹ ʹͲͲͳ †‡…‹†‡† –Šƒ– ‡‹••‹‘• ˆ”‘ †‡ˆ‘”‡•–ƒ–‹‘ ƒ† Žƒ†

†‡‰”ƒ†ƒ–‹‘•Š‘—Ž†„‡‹’Ž‡‡–‡†‹–Š‡›‘–‘”‘–‘…‘ŽǤ‘”‡‘˜‡”ǡ‡š…‘—–”‹‡•^ʹ …‘—Ž†…Š‘‘•‡™Š‡–Š‡”–‘‹…Ž—†‡ˆ‘”‡•–ƒƒ‰‡‡–ƒ•ƒ‘ˆˆ•‡–ǡ„—–‘Ž›—’–‘͵Ψ‘ˆ

ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‡‹••‹‘•ˆ‘”–Š‡ˆ‹”•–…‘‹–‡–’‡”‹‘†ǡ™Š‹…Š‹‘”™ƒ›ǯ•…ƒ•‡‡ƒ•ͳǤͷ

‹ŽŽ‹‘ –‘‡• ʹȀ›‡ƒ” ȋ ǡ ʹͲͲʹȌǤ ‡š …‘—–”‹‡• ƒŽ•‘ Šƒ˜‡ –Š‡ ‘’–‹‘ –‘

‹…Ž—†‡ ƒˆˆ‘”‡•–ƒ–‹‘ •‹• ˆ‘” ƒ”‡ƒ• ™Š‹…Š ™‡”‡ ‘– ˆ‘”‡•–‡† ‹ ͳͻͻͲ „—– ƒˆˆ‘”‡•–‡†

Žƒ–‡”ǤŠ‡‡•–‹ƒ–‡†–‘–ƒŽ’‘–‡–‹ƒŽˆ‘”–Š‡ƒˆˆ‘”‡•–ƒ–‹‘‘’–‹‘‹‡š…‘—–”‹‡•‹•

ͳͷͲǦͳͺͲ –‘‡• ʹȀ›‡ƒ”ǡ ƒŽ–Š‘—‰Š ‘Ž› ƒ„‘—– ͳͲΨ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ’‘–‡–‹ƒŽ ‹• ƒ…–—ƒŽŽ› —•‡†

ȋŠ‘’”ƒ ‡– ƒŽǤǡ ʹͲͲͷȌǤ • –Š‡ ʹ ‡‹••‹‘• ƒ”‡ …‘—–‡† ƒ• –Š‡ –”‡‡• ƒ”‡ Šƒ”˜‡•–‡†ǡ

„‹‘‡‡”‰›‹–Š‡›‘–‘”‘–‘…‘Ž‹•…‘•‹†‡”‡†…ƒ”„‘‡—–”ƒŽǡ‹†‡’‡†‡–‘ˆ‹–•‘”‹‰‹

ȋ‡ƒ”…Š‹‰‡”‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͲͻȌǤ

2.3TheNorwegianforestsector

Š‡ˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”‹‘”™ƒ›Šƒ•Ž‹‹–‡†‡…‘‘‹…‹’‘”–ƒ…‡‘–Š‡ƒ–‹‘ƒŽŽ‡˜‡Žǡ„—–

…‘•–‹–—–‡• ‡˜‡”–Š‡Ž‡•• ƒ •‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ– ’ƒ”– ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‡…‘‘› ‹ ”—”ƒŽ ƒ”‡ƒ•Ǥ Š‡ •‡…–‘”ǯ•

•Šƒ”‡ ‘ˆ Šƒ• †‡…”‡ƒ•‡† „› ͹ͷΨ ‘˜‡” –Š‡ Žƒ•– ͵Ͳ ›‡ƒ”• –‘ ƒ„‘—– ͲǤ͸Ψǡ ™Š‹Ž‡ ”‡ƒŽ

–‹„‡” ’”‹…‡• Šƒ˜‡ †‡…Ž‹‡† „› ƒ’’”‘š‹ƒ–‡Ž› ͷͲΨ ‹ –Š‡ •ƒ‡ ’‡”‹‘† ȋ–ƒ–‹•–‹…•

‘”™ƒ›ǡʹͲͳͲƒȌǤ‡…‡–ƒ—ƒŽŠƒ”˜‡•–Ž‡˜‡Ž•ˆŽ—…–—ƒ–‡„‡–™‡‡͸Ǥͷƒ†ͺǤͷ‹ŽŽ‹‘^͵ǡ

‘– ‹…Ž—†‹‰ ͳǦʹ ‹ŽŽ‹‘ ^͵ ‘ˆ ˆ‹”‡™‘‘† ‘—–•‹†‡ –Š‡ ‘ˆˆ‹…‹ƒŽ •–ƒ–‹•–‹…•Ǥ ƒ”˜‡•–• ƒ”‡

…‘…‡–”ƒ–‡† –‘ –Š‡ ‡ƒ•–‡” ’ƒ”– ‘ˆ –Š‡ …‘—–”›ǡ ™Š‹…Š ‹• ƒŽ•‘ ™Š‡”‡ ‘•– ‘ˆ –Š‡

ʹ‡š…‘—–”‹‡•‹…Ž—†‡—”‘’‡ƒ…‘—–”‹‡•ǡ–Š‡ǤǤǡƒƒ†ƒǡ—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǡ‡™‡ƒŽƒ†ƒ†ƒ’ƒ

ȋ ǡ•ǤƒǤȌǤ

͹

‹†—•–”‹‡•ƒ”‡Ž‘…ƒ–‡†Ǥ„‘—–ͶͲΨ‘ˆ–Š‡’—Ž’™‘‘†—•‡†‹‹†—•–”›‹•‹’‘”–‡†ǡ‘•–Ž›

ˆ”‘™‡†‡ǤŠ‡’”‘†—…–‹‘‘ˆ‡™•’”‹–ǡ—…‘ƒ–‡†’ƒ’‡”ƒ†Ž‹‡”„‘ƒ”†‹•Žƒ”‰‡ǡ™‹–Š

ƒ‡••‡–‹ƒŽ’ƒ”–‘ˆ–Š‡’”‘†—…–‹‘„‡‹‰‡š’‘”–‡†Ǥ

Š‡‘”™‡‰‹ƒˆ‘”‡•–•ƒ”‡‘™‡†„›…Ž‘•‡–‘ͳʹͲͲͲͲ’”‹˜ƒ–‡ˆ‘”‡•–‘™‡”•ǡƒ†–Š‡

ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ˆ‘”‡•–’”‘’‡”–›•‹œ‡‹•ƒ”‘—†ͷͲŠ‡…–ƒ”‡•Ǥ‹‘”•Šƒ”‡‘ˆ–Š‡ˆ‘”‡•–•‹•‘™‡†

„› –Š‡ –ƒ–‡ ƒ† –Š”‘—‰Š …‘‘ ‘™‡”•Š‹’Ǥ ”‹˜ƒ–‡ ‘™‡”• ƒ† —‹…‹’ƒŽ‹–‹‡•

…‘–”‹„—–‡–‘ͻʹΨ‘ˆ–Š‡”‘—†™‘‘†Šƒ”˜‡•–•ˆ‘”•ƒŽ‡ȋ–ƒ–‹•–‹…•‘”™ƒ›ǡʹͲͳͲ„ȌǤ

’’”‘š‹ƒ–‡Ž›͵͹Ψ‘ˆ‘”™ƒ›ǯ•Žƒ†ƒ”‡ƒ‹•…‘˜‡”‡†™‹–Šˆ‘”‡•–•Ǥ–‘–ƒŽ‘ˆ͹Ǥ͸‹ŽŽ‹‘

Š‡…–ƒ”‡•ǡ‘”͸͵Ψ‘ˆ–Š‡ˆ‘”‡•–ƒ”‡ƒǡ‹•…‘•‹†‡”‡†ƒ•’”‘†—…–‹˜‡ˆ‘”‡•–Žƒ†ǤŠ‡ˆ‘”‡•–

ƒ”‡ƒ‹•‰”‘™‹‰‹•‹œ‡ǡ’ƒ”–‹…—Žƒ”Ž›–‘™ƒ”†•–Š‡‘”–Šƒ†–‘–Š‡Š‹‰Š‡”ƒŽ–‹–—†‡•ǡ™‹–Š

–‡’‡”ƒ–—”‡ ‹…”‡ƒ•‡• ƒ† ”‡†—…‡† ‰”ƒœ‹‰ „› †‘‡•–‹… ƒ‹ƒŽ• ƒ••—‡† –‘ „‡ –Š‡

ƒ‹”‡ƒ•‘•Ǥ˜‡”–Š‡Žƒ•–ˆ‡™›‡ƒ”•ǡ‘”™‡‰‹ƒˆ‘”‡•–•Šƒ˜‡•‡“—‡•–‡”‡†„‡–™‡‡ʹͷ

ƒ† ͵Ͳ ‹ŽŽ‹‘ –‘‡• ʹ ƒ—ƒŽŽ› ȋŠ‡ ‘”™‡‰‹ƒ Ž‹ƒ–‡ ƒ† ‘ŽŽ—–‹‘ ‰‡…›ǡ ʹͲͳͲȌǡ‘”‘”‡–ŠƒŠƒŽˆ‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ–‹‘ƒŽƒ–Š”‘’‘‰‡‹…‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡‰ƒ•‡‹••‹‘•ǡ™Š‹…Š

‹ ʹͲͲͻ –‘–ƒŽ‡† ͷͳǤ͵ ‹ŽŽ‹‘ –‘‡• ʹ‡“ ȋ–ƒ–‹•–‹…• ‘”™ƒ›ǡ ʹͲͳͳȌǤ Š‡ ‘”™‡‰‹ƒ

ˆ‘”‡•–• Šƒ˜‡ •‡‡ ƒ ƒ••‹˜‡ ‡š’ƒ•‹‘ ‹ –‡”• ‘ˆ ˜‘Ž—‡ ‘˜‡” –Š‡ ’ƒ•– ͳͲͲ ›‡ƒ”•Ǥ

–ƒ”–‹‰™‹–Š͵ͲͲ‹ŽŽ‹‘Ϳ‘ˆ‰”‘™‹‰•–‘…ƒ†ͳͲ‹ŽŽ‹‘^͵‘ˆƒ—ƒŽ‹…”‡‡–‹

ͳͻ͵͵ǡ –Š‡ ˆ‘”‡•–• Šƒ˜‡ ‰”‘™ –‘ ‘”‡ –Šƒ ͺͲͲ ‹ŽŽ‹‘ Ϳ –‘†ƒ›ǡ ™‹–Š ƒ ƒ—ƒŽ

‹…”‡‡–‘ˆʹͷ‹ŽŽ‹‘Ϳȋ–ƒ–„ƒ‘”™ƒ›ǡʹͲͳͳȌǤ—”‹‰–Š‡Žƒ•–͸Ͳ›‡ƒ”•ǡƒ—ƒŽ

Šƒ”˜‡•–•Šƒ˜‡ˆŽ—…–—ƒ–‡†„‡–™‡‡͸Ǥͷƒ†ͳͲǤͷ‹ŽŽ‹‘Ϳƒ……‘”†‹‰–‘‘ˆˆ‹…‹ƒŽ•–ƒ–‹•–‹…• ȋ ‹‰—”‡ʹȌǤ‡••–ŠƒŠƒŽˆ‘ˆ–Š‡‹…”‡‡–Šƒ•„‡‡Šƒ”˜‡•–‡†‘˜‡”–Š‡Žƒ•––™‘†‡…ƒ†‡•ǡ

Ž‡ƒ†‹‰–‘ƒ”ƒ’‹†˜‘Ž—‡ƒ……——Žƒ–‹‘ȋ–ƒ–„ƒ‘”™ƒ›ǡʹͲͳͳȌǤ

Š‡ƒ—ƒŽ‹…”‡‡–Šƒ•’”‘„ƒ„Ž›”‡ƒ…Š‡†‹–•ƒš‹—ǡƒ†‡˜‡‹ˆƒ—ƒŽŠƒ”˜‡•–

Ž‡˜‡Ž• ”‡ƒ‹ ƒ– ƒ„‘—– ͳͲ ‹ŽŽ‹‘ ^͵ǡ –Š‡ ‡– ‹…”‡‡– ƒ† …‘•‡“—‡–Ž› –Š‡ …ƒ”„‘

•‡“—‡•–”ƒ–‹‘ ƒ”‡ Ž‹‡Ž› –‘ †‡…Ž‹‡Ǥ ‹–Š ͳͲ ‹ŽŽ‹‘ ^͵ ‹ ƒ—ƒŽ Šƒ”˜‡•–ǡ –Š‡ …ƒ”„‘

—’–ƒ‡‹•‡š’‡…–‡†–‘„‡ƒ’’”‘š‹ƒ–‡Ž›ʹʹ‹ŽŽ‹‘–‘‡•ʹ‹ʹͲʹͲǡʹͲ‹ŽŽ‹‘–‘‡•

ʹ‹ʹͲͷͲƒ†ͳͷ‹ŽŽ‹‘–‘‡•ʹ‹ʹͲͺͲȋŠ‡‘”™‡‰‹ƒŽ‹ƒ–‡ƒ†‘ŽŽ—–‹‘

‰‡…›ǡʹͲͳͲȌǤŠ‹•‹•Ž‹‡Ž›–‘„‡…ƒ—•‡†„›•Š‹ˆ–•‹ˆ‘”‡•–”›‹˜‡•–‡–•Ǥ–Š‡’‡”‹‘†

„‡–™‡‡ͳͻͷͲƒ†ͳͻͻͲǡ’Žƒ–‹‰™ƒ•ƒ–‹–•‘•–‹–‡•‡ǡ™‹–Šƒ—ƒŽŽ›’Žƒ–‡†ƒ”‡ƒ•

—’–‘–Š”‡‡–‹‡•Žƒ”‰‡”–Šƒ‹”‡…‡–›‡ƒ”•ȋ–ƒ–‹•–‹…•‘”™ƒ›ǡʹͲͳͲ„ȌǤ††‹–‹‘ƒŽŽ›ǡ

–Š‡ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡’Žƒ–‹‰†‡•‹–›Šƒ•†‡…”‡ƒ•‡†„›͵Ͳ؈‘”–Š‡’‡”‹‘†ͳͻ͹ͳǦʹͲͲͻȋ–ƒ–„ƒ

‘”™ƒ›ǡʹͲͳͳȌǡƒ†–Š‡—„‡”‘ˆ’Žƒ–‡†•‡‡†Ž‹‰•Šƒ•†‡…Ž‹‡†ˆ”‘ͳͳͲ‹ŽŽ‹‘ƒ–‹–•

Š‡‹‰Š– ‹ ‹†Ǧͳͻ͸Ͳ• –‘ ƒ„‘—– ʹ͵ ‹ŽŽ‹‘• ‹ ʹͲͲͻǤ —”–Š‡”‘”‡ǡ •ƒŽ‡• ‘ˆ •‡‡†• ™‡”‡

ƒ”‘—† ʹͲ –‹‡• Š‹‰Š‡” ‹ ͳͻ͸ͳ –Šƒ ‹ ʹͲͲͷ ȋŠ‡ ‘”™‡‰‹ƒ ‘”‡•– ‡‡† ‡–‡”ǡ ʹͲͲͻȌǤ ˆˆ‘”‡•–ƒ–‹‘ ‹ …‘ƒ•–ƒŽ ƒ”‡ƒ• †—”‹‰ –Š‹• ’‡”‹‘† ‹• ƒŽ•‘ ƒ ‹’‘”–ƒ– ˆƒ…–‘” ‹

–‘†ƒ›ǯ•Žƒ”‰‡…ƒ”„‘—’–ƒ‡Ǥ

ͺ

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Growing stock (mill m3under bark) Annual harvest and increment (mill m3under bark)

Annual harvest Annual increment Growing stock

Figure 2: Annual industrial harvest and increment and growing stock in Norway 19192009.

Source:StatbankNorway2011.

2.4Forestsectormodelsandlongrangeforestmanagementplanning Theoreticalbasis

‘”‡•– •‡…–‘” ‘†‡Ž• ƒ”‡ –‘‘Ž• —•‡† –‘ „‘–Š ’”‘Œ‡…– ˆ—–—”‡ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡– ƒ† ƒƒŽ›œ‡

‹’ƒ…–• ‘ˆ …Šƒ‰‡• ‹ ‡…‘‘‹… ƒ† ’‘Ž‹–‹…ƒŽ ˆƒ…–‘”•Ǥ •‹‰ –Š‡ †‡ˆ‹‹–‹‘ „› ‘Ž„‡”‰

ȋͳͻͺ͸ǡ’ǤͶʹͲȌǡƒˆ‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”‘†‡Ž‹•Dzƒ‘†‡Žȋ—‡”‹…ƒŽ‘”•–”‹…–Ž›ƒƒŽ›–‹…ƒŽȌ™Š‹…Š

–ƒ‡•‹–‘ƒ……‘—–„‘–Šˆ‘”‡•–”›ƒ†ˆ‘”‡•–‹†—•–”‹‡•ƒ†–Š‡‹–‡”ƒ…–‹‘„‡–™‡‡–Š‡•‡

–™‘ ƒ…–‹˜‹–‹‡•Ǥ̶  –Š‡ ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰ǡ ™‹ŽŽ ˆ‘” –Š‡ ‘•– ’ƒ”– ”‡•–”‹…– ›•‡Žˆ –‘ †‹•…—••‹‰

‡“—‹Ž‹„”‹— ˆ‘”‡•– •‡…–‘” ‘†‡Ž•ǡ ™Š‹…Š ‹• ƒ •—„‰”‘—’ ‘ˆ ˆ‘”‡•– •‡…–‘” ‘†‡Ž• –Šƒ–

”‡“—‹”‡ƒ”‡–‡“—‹Ž‹„”‹—ǡ‹Ǥ‡Ǥ–Šƒ––Š‡•—’’Ž›‡“—ƒŽ•–Š‡†‡ƒ†ˆ‘”‡ƒ…Š”‡‰‹‘ƒ†

’”‘†—…–Ǥ ‘” ‘”™ƒ› ƒ† –‘ •‘‡ ‡š–‡– —”‘’‡ǡ ‘–Š‡” –›’‡• ‘ˆ ‘†‡Ž• ™‹ŽŽ ƒŽ•‘ „‡

’”‡•‡–‡†Ǥ

‡’‡†‹‰ ‘ –Š‡ ˆ‘”‡•– •‡…–‘” ‘†‡Žǯ• ˆ‘”—Žƒ–‹‘ ƒ† ƒ••—’–‹‘•ǡ –Š‡”‡ ƒ”‡ –™‘

†‹•–‹…–Dz‰”‘—’•dz‘ˆ–Š‡‘”‹‡•ˆ‘”‹‰–Š‡–Š‡‘”‡–‹…ƒŽ„ƒ•‹•ǡ‘‡™Š‹…Š‹•…‘…‡”‡†™‹–Š

–Š‡ ‹–‡”–‡’‘”ƒŽ ‘’–‹‹œ‹‰ ‘ˆ –Š‡ Šƒ”˜‡•– ƒ† –Š‡ ‘–Š‡” ™‹–Š ƒ”‡– ‡“—‹Ž‹„”‹ƒ ‹

•’ƒ–‹ƒŽǡ…‘’‡–‹–‹˜‡ƒ”‡–•Ǥ

‘”‡•–•‡…–‘”‘†‡Ž••‹—Žƒ–‹‰‹–‡”–‡’‘”ƒŽ‘’–‹‹œ‹‰„‡Šƒ˜‹‘”‘ˆƒ‰‡–••‡‡–‘„‡

‹†‹”‡…–Ž› „ƒ•‡† ‘ –Š‡ ”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘• Š›’‘–Š‡•‹• ȋȌ ’”‘’‘•‡† „› —–Š