NAV’s Horizon Scan 2019
Societal trends and consequences for NAV up until 2030
March 2019 //
Main conclusions
People move and grow older – the welfare state is
being challenged
Faster pace of change
New expectations
and possibilities
▪ Society is changing quickly – NAV’s services must reflect and respond to these developments
▪ Reflection and discussion of the
opportunities and challenges leads to better strategies and plans
▪ NAV employees are the main target group, but also politicians, ministries, partners and the general public
Purpose of the Horizon Scan
What do NAV employees think?
43
42
41
38
31
18
16
11
11
10
37
13
32
32
51
35
12
23
8
9
0 10 20 30 40 50
Restructuring in the labour market due to digitalisation and other technology development
Ageing of the population Lack of education/skills among vulnerable groups in the labour market More people with mental health diagnoses, especially among the young Demands for cuts and rationalisation of the public sector Greater expectations of digitalisation of public services More refugees Increased centralisation of public services Labour immigration Increased income differences
Will affect own work tasks Will affect the whole NAV organisation
Percentage.
Which of the following trends do you believe will most affect NAV as a whole and your work tasks in the next 10 years?
Choose up to 3 alternatives. (N=5,200 NAV employees)
53%
37%
5% 5%
33%
41%
8%
18%
27%
36%
9%
29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Useful or very useful
Somewhat useful
Very little or not at all useful
Don't know
Manager
Employee rep./safety delegate Employee
How familiar are you with NAV’s Horizon Scan?
Familiarity and usefulness
How useful do you believe the Horizon Scan is for your place of work?
48%
43%
9%
24%
45%
31%
14%
43% 43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Familiar or very familiar
Somewhat familiar Very little or not at all
ManagerEmployee rep./safety delegate Employee
Main findings
Demography
User expectations
Technology
Living conditions and health
Political trends
• Weaker growth than expected – ageing, immigration and centralisation
• Moderate growth for services/benefits for working age users, strongest for retirement pensions/assistive technology aids
• All else being equal, NAV will be run 15 per cent more efficiently in 2030
• Faster pace of change – technology, globalisation, green transition
• One out of four do not complete upper secondary school
• NAV must facilitate restructuring – contribute to occupational and geographical mobility
• Closer cooperation with employers and across sectors
• Pervasive digitalisation, more rapid development
• Automation, data-driven decision support, life events automatically detected
• Requires coordinated development of the whole organisation
• Expectations are increasing fast and in step with good/adapted services in other parts of society
• Users’ influence is increasing and will drive developments
• Need for simple services accessible to everyone
• An evidence-based labour and welfare policy – restructuring and sustainability the main focus
• Continuous high expectations of rationalisation
• No sign of political polarisation, but a risk factor given international developments
• Increasing income differences, young adults and some immigrant groups are most vulnerable
• Higher life expectancy and better health, but threatened by risk factors such as
alcohol/drugs and inactivity
• Fewer on health-related benefits, but the higher pace of change entails a risk
Labour market
Population growth
Demography: Weaker population
growth going forward, great variation between user groups
Photo: Colourbox
+8 %
0%
+1 %
+5 %
+8 % +11 %
+53 %
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
In all 0–18 yrs 19–34 yrs 35–49 yrs 50–66 yrs 67–74 yrs 75 and over +5 %
Strongest growth among the elderly
Population growth 2019–2030
Source:SSB’s population projections, June 2018
Foto: Rawpixel/Unsplash
Age group 19-66 years +5%
0 100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000 700 000 800 000 900 000 1 000 000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Eastern-European EU countries
EU excl. Eastern-Europe, EFTA, North America, Australia and New Zealand Eastern-Europe outside EU, Africa, Asia and Latin America
Growth in the immigrant population*
* Born abroad to foreign-born parents
Source:SSB’s population projections, June 2018
User expectations:
Individually adapted and coordinated services
Photo: Colourbox
▪ Others shape users’
expectations, not NAV
– Expect coordinated services and individual service
– NAV must use understandable language
– The new General Data Protection Regulation means clearer rights
▪ Users will control development
– Digitalisation and increased participation will give users more influence
NAV must live up to users' increased expectations
Photo: Colourbox
▪ Demanding life situations
– stress can affect the ability to absorb information
– must be met with very simple and user-friendly services
▪ Varying competence
– digital skills
– experience of processes in the public sector
▪ Simplify services for users
– use what we know
– give users the benefits/services they are entitled to without having to apply?
Need for simple services accessible to everyone
Photo: Brooke Cagle/Unsplash
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
16–24 yrs 25–34 yrs 35–44 yrs 45–54 yrs 55–64 yrs 65–74 yrs 75–79 yrs
Good skills Basic skills Inadequate skills No skills/not used internet
More people will master digital tools in future, but accessing public services requires skills that not everyone has
Source:SSB
Digital skills in 2016, by age. Per cent
Technology:
New possibilities for NAV
Photo: Colourbox
Technological trends
Ethics and protection of privacy
▪ Data sharing
▪ Security
▪ Protection of privacy
Insight
technologies
▪ Artificial intelligence
▪ Decision support
▪ Talking and translating machines
Digital
infrastructure
▪ Cloud services and platforms
▪ High-speed mobile network (5G)
▪ Blockchains
Increased pace of change
▪ New business models
▪ User-driven
▪ Flexible development
Technology will modernise NAV
New possibilites Increasing expectations Digital change will affect the whole organisation
Self-service
Automation
Datadriven decision support
Technology is developing faster Agile development Innovation and interaction
Parallel development
User centric design
•Policy
•Regulations
• The organisation
•Services
•Culture
•Competence
Ethics of protection and privacy
Increased pace of change
Digital
Infrastructure Insight
technologies
Labour market:
Faster pace of change
Photo: Clyde Thomas/Unsplash
Three trends lead to a faster pace of change
– Technological development – Globalisation
– Downscaling of the oil and gas industry / green transition
Counter-trend: Risk of increased protectionism
Rapid changes in the workplace
Photo: Pixabay, Rawpixe/Unsplash, Pexels
Proportion of jobs at risk of substantial change Proportion of jobs at high risk of full automation
6%
26%
Norway:
Automation in the workplace
Source: Nedelkoska and Quintini (OECD, 2018)
▪ Possibility of periodic higher unemployment in particularly strongly affected industries and occupations
▪ New jobs will arise in other
industries/occupations, and possibly in other parts of Norway:
– Lifelong learning and restructuring – NAV must facilitate restructuring –
contribute to occupational and geographical mobility
Consequences of automation
Photo:
Pixabay
▪ 230,000 more employed in service industries
▪ Biggest reduction in the oil industry, ripple effects on industry
▪ Shortage of skilled workers –
especially in the health sector and traditional trades
More differentiated labour market
Photo: Rawpixel/Unsplash
Weak growth in the wholesale and retail trade, downturn in the oil industry
80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Private services
Public services
Building and construction Wholesale/retail trade
Manufacturing
Oil and gas recovery
Projected employment by industry (2017=100)
Source:SSB (Dapi et al., 2018)
0 2 4 6 8 10
Lower secondary
In all
Upper secondary
University/university college
1 out of 4 do not complete upper secondary school
Source:SSB
Photo: Pixabay
Unemployment, by educational level. As a percentage
• There is nevertheless some improvement in the proportion who complete upper secondary education
• Unemployment is clearly highest among unskilled
workers
How does society deal with changes?
Values and behaviour
Hesitantly and reactively In a preparatory and proactive
way
Society is responsible
The individual is responsible
3 2 1
4
Scenarios – future competence needs
1. The hands-on society
• Public services characterised by a high pace of change
• Public agencies offer enterprises opportunities to teach employees new skills, making it easier for them to invest in their own employees and the future.
• It is unusual to take a lengthy education and more common to update your education more often.
• Most people start working earlier, and they work longer. People expect to change occupations and learn new skills many times during their working lives.
• Educations that focus on learning, ethics and change are more common.
3. Let things take their own course
• Many enterprises have problems adapting quickly enough because they lack the right competence. It takes time to educate people so that they have the right skills. This often results in periods of higher unemployment.
• There are private schemes for those who are unemployed or at risk of becoming unemployed, but not everyone can afford to buy such services.
• Increased labour emigration to countries that have tackled restructuring better
• The platform economy is widespread, with the result that more people have fewer rights when they become ill or unemployed.
2. My employer educates me
• Individuals take responsibility for adapting, and employers have a key role in developing employees’ skills.
• Enterprises are quick to invest in competence. There are many private providers of continuing education and adaptation programmes.
• Many people take out private insurance against unemployment, so that they have financial security in a transitional phase.
• The public sector contributes funding and support for employers
• Those who have an employer find that most things turn out well, including adapting to new competence requirements when necessary.
4. The welfare state that stagnated
• Mainly public agencies that are responsible for ensuring that people have the competence employers need.
• Many people need and expect to receive assistance from public agencies, but the provision of public services fails to meet demand.
• Employers are looking for people with new skills, but it takes a long time to re-educate labour.
• The courses, measures and education offered by public agencies are not very up to date
• Some of the competence needs are covered through labour immigration, but there is strong competition for the best qualified people.
Young adults and immigrants most at risk of low income Living conditions: Young
adults and immigrants most at risk of low income
Photo: Igor Cancarevic/Unsplash
▪ The proportion of youth and young adults with low income is increasing
▪ The proportion of elderly with low income is decreasing
▪ Immigrants are overrepresented in the low-income group
▪ Increased competition in the labour market can lead to bigger income differences
Increased income differences in Norway
Proportion of persons with persistent low income based on the EU-60 definition.
Percentage.
Source:SSB
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
All ages 0-17 years 18-34 years
35-49 years 50-66 years 67 or older
Unge voksne og innvandrere mest
utsatt for lavinntekt
Foto: Igor Cancarevic/UnsplashHealth: Longer and healthier lives
Foto: Mats Hagwall/Unsplash
Norway among the countries with best public health, and we are getting healthier
65 70 75 80 85 90
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Life expectancy Healthy life years
Source:SSB and the World Health Organization
▪ A downward trend in the use of health- related benefits since 2009
– Biggest reduction among the oldest group – Weak increase in the under-30 age group
▪ Decreasing trend and more elderly in the 18–66 age group pull in opposite
directions
– Overall, therefore, the proportion on health-related benefits is expected to remain relatively stable up until 2030
– Risk factors:
– Pace of change in the labour market – Increased pressure on low-skill occupations – High drop-out rate in upper secondary education
Fewer on health-related benefits
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Recipients of health-related benefits as a proportion of the
population aged 18–66
(sum of sickness benefits, work assessment
benefit and disability benefit)
Fewer on work assessment benefit, disability benefit increasing
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Disability benefit
Work assessment allowance
Sickness benefit
Proportion of the population aged 18–
66 on health–related benefits.
Percentage
Stable proportion of young people on health-related benefits
Young people aged 18–29 on health-related benefits Percentage
Photo: Pixabay
