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Expectations and Fears The impact of the 1992 Elections

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Expectations and Fears

The impact of the 1992 Elections

Inge Amundsen, Chr. Michelsen Institute

Conferência sobre as Eleições em Angola

Centro de Estudos e Investigação Científica (CEIC), Universidade Católica de Angola Terça-Feira, 4 de Novembro de 2008

(2)

Expectations and Fears

Background

• CEIC-CMI cooperation

• Research project

– Impact of 1992 elections on 2008 parliamentary – Wacussanga, Abreu, Amundsen, Søreide

• CMI Working Paper

– Expectativas e receios face às eleições de 2008.

O impacto de 1992

(3)

Expectations and Fears

Background variables

• Small sample, many questions

– Detail and co-variance

• Two provinces included

– Luanda and Bié

• Some biases

– Large number of civil servants in Bié

• Urban, higher education, access to information

(4)

Expectations and Fears

• Gender no significant difference

– Grossly same opinions as men

• Age some significance

– Older people will vote more

• Province some significance

– Luanda people will vote more

• Voting patterns

– Most people will vote same party

– Nobody will vote for a party because it is new – Reconciliation and peace is most important

• (Federalism not)

(5)

Affected by the crisis of 1992

(6)

Fear of (new) civil war

(7)

Access to information

(8)

Confidence

(9)

Opinions on Angolan democracy

(10)

Fear factors

(11)

Got it right?

Referanser

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