Discussion Papers No. 438, October 2005 Statistics Norway, Research Department
Bjart Holtsmark
Global per capita CO
2emissions - stable in the long run?
Abstract:
Global per capita CO2 emissions have been relatively stable during the last decades. It has been suggested that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its scenario makers have ignored this stability. This paper presents a simple analytical framework explaining generally the stability of global per capita CO2 emissions during the last decades. The same analytical framework, supported by numerical illustrations, indicates that this stability is unlikely to persist and that current trends in regional per capita emissions are in close agreement with the IPCC scenarios.
Keywords: Global carbon emissions, SRES, IPCC, scenarios.
JEL classification: Q30, Q41.
Acknowledgement: I wish to thank Torstein Bye, Mads Greaker, and Kjetil Telle for valuable discussions and comments.
Address: Bjart Holtsmark, Statistics Norway, Research Department. E-mail: [email protected]
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0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
GtC
Observed per capita emissions industrialized countries
Observed per capita emissions developing countries
Observed per capita emissions w orld
97EB5 &2C5BF54 B579?>1< 1>4 7<?21< @5B 31@9D1 &5=9CC9?>C 6B?=
6?CC9< 6E5< 3?=2ECD9?>
65 % 70 % 75 % 80 % 85 %
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
0.00 % 0.05 % 0.10 % 0.15 % 0.20 % 0.25 % 0.30 % 0.35 % 0.40 %
Population of developing countries' as share of global population (left axis)
Annual increase in population of developing countries' as share of global population (right axis)
97EB5 '?@E<1D9?> ?6 45F5<?@9>7 3?E>DB95C 1C C81B5 ?6 7<?21< @?@E<1 D9?> )?EB35 +% -?B<4 '?@E<1D9?> 'B?:53D9?>C +@41D5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
tC
U S A
India C
hina
G lobal Other industrialized countries
J apan T
ransition economies
Other developing countries
97EB5 &2C5BF54 B579?>1< 1>4 7<?21< @5B 31@9D1 & 5=9CC9?>C G9D8 DB5>4C
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
A1
McKitrick and Strazicich's trend scenario (stationary per capita emissions)
New trend scenario
B2
B1 A2
97EB5 <?21< & 5=9CC9?>C 9CD?B931< 1>4 C35>1B9?C
15 Table 1: Observed and estimated CO2-emission. MtC.
China India Other developing
countries USA Japan
Other industr.
countries
Transition
countries* World
1965 192 49 244 1 016 118 603 992 3 214
1970 241 57 325 1 244 224 761 1 174 4 028
1975 336 72 428 1 247 255 793 1 385 4 516
1980 423 88 588 1 352 263 856 1 537 5 108
1985 560 121 727 1 318 264 806 1 609 5 406
1990 684 171 902 1 443 305 881 1 613 5 999
1995 878 227 1 120 1 534 337 912 1 189 6 196 2000 696 284 1 326 1 691 350 995 1 109 6 451 2004 1 320 337 1 529 1 704 361 1 051 1 160 7 462 2005 1 057 323 1 579 1 713 369 1 027 1 158 7 226 2010 1 187 381 1 849 1 796 388 1 067 1 149 7 816 2015 1 323 441 2 144 1 876 404 1 104 1 139 8 431 2020 1 457 504 2 459 1 951 417 1 139 1 127 9 055 2025 1 580 568 2 792 2 021 428 1 173 1 111 9 673 2030 1 692 631 3 139 2 086 437 1 204 1 091 10 281 2035 1 794 694 3 499 2 145 445 1 232 1 070 10 879 2040 1 887 756 3 868 2 199 452 1 257 1 049 11 466 2045 1 969 817 4 240 2 248 457 1 279 1 026 12 036 2050 2 037 876 4 610 2 294 462 1 298 1 002 12 578
* Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Ukraine, Other Europe & Eurasia.
Source of observed data: BP Statistical Review of World Energy. When converting consumption data (toe) to emissions (tC) the applied conversion factors have been 0.781 (oil), 0.598 (gas), and 1.105 (coal). Future emissions represent a trend scenario discussed in the text.
Table 2: Observed and predicted population. 1000.
China India Other developing countries
USA Japan Other industr.
countries
Transition countries*
World
1965 729 191 495 157 1 106 619 199 796 98 881 310 643 397 687 3 337 974 1970 830 675 554 911 1 257 754 210 111 104 331 323 786 415 020 3 696 588 1975 927 808 620 701 1 427 234 220 165 111 524 335 745 430 563 4 073 740 1980 998 877 688 856 1 616 381 230 917 116 807 345 634 444 823 4 442 295 1985 1 070 175 766 053 1 831 874 243 056 120 837 353 426 458 526 4 843 947 1990 1 155 305 849 415 2 059 629 255 539 123 537 362 237 473 857 5 279 519 1995 1 219 331 935 572 2 294 081 269 603 125 472 371 361 476 933 5 692 353 2000 1273 979 1 021 084 2 525 840 284 154 127 034 379 106 474 375 6 085 572 2004 1 307 471 1 086 914 2 713 446 295 401 127 875 386 855 470 953 6 388 914 2005 1 315 844 1 103 371 2 760 347 298 213 128 085 388 792 470 098 6 464 750 2010 1 354 533 1 183 293 3 002 296 312 253 128 457 395 748 466 343 6 842 923 2015 1 392 980 1 260 366 3 248 805 325 723 127 993 401 137 462 427 7 219 431 2020 1 423 939 1 332 032 3 493 591 338 427 126 713 405 709 457 478 7 577 889 2025 1 441 426 1 395 496 3 733 007 350 103 124 819 409 492 450 896 7 905 239 2030 1 446 453 1 449 078 3 964 781 360 894 122 566 412 324 443 008 8 199 104 2035 1 442 974 1 494 269 4 186 643 370 709 120 140 414 032 434 498 8 463 265 2040 1 433 431 1 534 402 4 396 004 379 544 117 621 414 633 425 684 8 701 319 2045 1 416 926 1 567 734 4 589 496 387 531 114 983 414 256 416 491 8 907 417 2050 1 392 307 1 592 704 4 763 952 394 976 112 198 413 129 406 637 9 075 903 Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Ukraine, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Slovenia, The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan.
Source: UN World Population Projections. Revision 2004.
16
Recent publications in the series Discussion Papers
346 B.M. Larsen and R.Nesbakken (2003): How to quantify household electricity end-use consumption
347 B. Halvorsen, B. M. Larsen and R. Nesbakken (2003):
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348 S. Johansen and A. R. Swensen (2003): More on Testing Exact Rational Expectations in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models: Restricted Drift Terms 349 B. Holtsmark (2003): The Kyoto Protocol without USA
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350 J. Larsson (2003): Testing the Multiproduct Hypothesis on Norwegian Aluminium Industry Plants
351 T. Bye (2003): On the Price and Volume Effects from Green Certificates in the Energy Market
352 E. Holmøy (2003): Aggregate Industry Behaviour in a Monopolistic Competition Model with Heterogeneous Firms
353 A. O. Ervik, E.Holmøy and T. Hægeland (2003): A Theory-Based Measure of the Output of the Education Sector
354 E. Halvorsen (2003): A Cohort Analysis of Household Saving in Norway
355 I. Aslaksen and T. Synnestvedt (2003): Corporate environmental protection under uncertainty
356 S. Glomsrød and W. Taoyuan (2003): Coal cleaning: A viable strategy for reduced carbon emissions and improved environment in China?
357 A. Bruvoll T. Bye, J. Larsson og K. Telle (2003):
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358 J.K. Dagsvik, S. Strøm and Z. Jia (2003): A Stochastic Model for the Utility of Income.
359 M. Rege and K. Telle (2003): Indirect Social Sanctions from Monetarily Unaffected Strangers in a Public Good Game.
360 R. Aaberge (2003): Mean-Spread-Preserving Transformation.
361 E. Halvorsen (2003): Financial Deregulation and Household Saving. The Norwegian Experience Revisited 362 E. Røed Larsen (2003): Are Rich Countries Immune to
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363 E. Røed Larsen and Dag Einar Sommervoll (2003):
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364 R. Bjørnstad and T. Skjerpen (2003): Technology, Trade and Inequality
365 A. Raknerud, D. Rønningen and T. Skjerpen (2003): A method for improved capital measurement by combining accounts and firm investment data
366 B.J. Holtsmark and K.H. Alfsen (2004): PPP-correction of the IPCC emission scenarios - does it matter?
367 R. Aaberge, U. Colombino, E. Holmøy, B. Strøm and T.
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368 E. Røed Larsen (2004): Does the CPI Mirror Costs.of.Living? Engel’s Law Suggests Not in Norway
369 T. Skjerpen (2004): The dynamic factor model revisited:
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370 J.K. Dagsvik and A.L. Mathiassen (2004): Agricultural Production with Uncertain Water Supply
371 M. Greaker (2004): Industrial Competitiveness and Diffusion of New Pollution Abatement Technology – a new look at the Porter-hypothesis
372 G. Børnes Ringlund, K.E. Rosendahl and T. Skjerpen (2004): Does oilrig activity react to oil price changes?
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373 G. Liu (2004) Estimating Energy Demand Elasticities for OECD Countries. A Dynamic Panel Data Approach 374 K. Telle and J. Larsson (2004): Do environmental
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375 K.R. Wangen (2004): Some Fundamental Problems in Becker, Grossman and Murphy's Implementation of Rational Addiction Theory
376 B.J. Holtsmark and K.H. Alfsen (2004): Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol without Russian participation 377 E. Røed Larsen (2004): Escaping the Resource Curse and
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378 L. Andreassen (2004): Mortality, fertility and old age care in a two-sex growth model
379 E. Lund Sagen and F. R. Aune (2004): The Future European Natural Gas Market - are lower gas prices attainable?
380 A. Langørgen and D. Rønningen (2004): Local government preferences, individual needs, and the allocation of social assistance
381 K. Telle (2004): Effects of inspections on plants' regulatory and environmental performance - evidence from Norwegian manufacturing industries
382 T. A. Galloway (2004): To What Extent Is a Transition into Employment Associated with an Exit from Poverty 383 J. F. Bjørnstad and E.Ytterstad (2004): Two-Stage
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385 P.V. Hansen and L. Lindholt (2004): The market power of OPEC 1973-2001
386 N. Keilman and D. Q. Pham (2004): Empirical errors and predicted errors in fertility, mortality and migration forecasts in the European Economic Area
387 G. H. Bjertnæs and T. Fæhn (2004): Energy Taxation in a Small, Open Economy: Efficiency Gains under Political Restraints
388 J.K. Dagsvik and S. Strøm (2004): Sectoral Labor Supply, Choice Restrictions and Functional Form 389 B. Halvorsen (2004): Effects of norms, warm-glow and
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390 I. Aslaksen and T. Synnestvedt (2004): Are the Dixit- Pindyck and the Arrow-Fisher-Henry-Hanemann Option Values Equivalent?
391 G. H. Bjønnes, D. Rime and H. O.Aa. Solheim (2004):
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17
392 T. Åvitsland and J. Aasness (2004): Combining CGE and microsimulation models: Effects on equality of VAT reforms
393 M. Greaker and Eirik. Sagen (2004): Explaining experience curves for LNG liquefaction costs:
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394 K. Telle, I. Aslaksen and T. Synnestvedt (2004): "It pays to be green" - a premature conclusion?
395 T. Harding, H. O. Aa. Solheim and A. Benedictow (2004). House ownership and taxes
396 E. Holmøy and B. Strøm (2004): The Social Cost of Government Spending in an Economy with Large Tax Distortions: A CGE Decomposition for Norway 397 T. Hægeland, O. Raaum and K.G. Salvanes (2004): Pupil
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“Late lessons from early warnings” applied to genetically modified plants
399 J. Møen (2004): When subsidized R&D-firms fail, do they still stimulate growth? Tracing knowledge by following employees across firms
400 B. Halvorsen and Runa Nesbakken (2004): Accounting for differences in choice opportunities in analyses of energy expenditure data
401 T.J. Klette and A. Raknerud (2004): Heterogeneity, productivity and selection: An empirical study of Norwegian manufacturing firms
402 R. Aaberge (2005): Asymptotic Distribution Theory of Empirical Rank-dependent Measures of Inequality 403 F.R. Aune, S. Kverndokk, L. Lindholt and K.E.
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404 Z. Jia (2005): Labor Supply of Retiring Couples and Heterogeneity in Household Decision-Making Structure 405 Z. Jia (2005): Retirement Behavior of Working Couples
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407 P. Frenger (2005): The elasticity of substitution of superlative price indices
408 M. Mogstad, A. Langørgen and R. Aaberge (2005):
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409 J.K. Dagsvik (2005) Choice under Uncertainty and Bounded Rationality
410 T. Fæhn, A.G. Gómez-Plana and S. Kverndokk (2005):
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411 J. Larsson and K. Telle (2005): Consequences of the IPPC-directive’s BAT requirements for abatement costs and emissions
412 R. Aaberge, S. Bjerve and K. Doksum (2005): Modeling Concentration and Dispersion in Multiple Regression 413 E. Holmøy and K.M. Heide (2005): Is Norway immune
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414 K.R. Wangen (2005): An Expenditure Based Estimate of Britain's Black Economy Revisited
415 A. Mathiassen (2005): A Statistical Model for Simple, Fast and Reliable Measurement of Poverty
416 F.R. Aune, S. Glomsrød, L. Lindholt and K.E.
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417 D. Fredriksen, K.M. Heide, E. Holmøy and I.F. Solli (2005): Macroeconomic effects of proposed pension reforms in Norway
418 D. Fredriksen and N.M. Stølen (2005): Effects of demographic development, labour supply and pension reforms on the future pension burden
419 A. Alstadsæter, A-S. Kolm and B. Larsen (2005): Tax Effects on Unemployment and the Choice of Educational Type
420 E. Biørn (2005): Constructing Panel Data Estimators by Aggregation: A General Moment Estimator and a Suggested Synthesis
421 J. Bjørnstad (2005): Non-Bayesian Multiple Imputation 422 H. Hungnes (2005): Identifying Structural Breaks in
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423 H. C. Bjørnland and H. Hungnes (2005): The commodity currency puzzle
424 F. Carlsen, B. Langset and J. Rattsø (2005): The relationship between firm mobility and tax level:
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425 T. Harding and J. Rattsø (2005): The barrier model of productivity growth: South Africa
426 E. Holmøy (2005): The Anatomy of Electricity Demand:
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427 T.K.M. Beatty, E. Røed Larsen and D.E. Sommervoll (2005): Measuring the Price of Housing Consumption for Owners in the CPI
428 E. Røed Larsen (2005): Distributional Effects of Environmental Taxes on Transportation: Evidence from Engel Curves in the United States
429 P. Boug, Å. Cappelen and T. Eika (2005): Exchange Rate Rass-through in a Small Open Economy: The Importance of the Distribution Sector
430 K. Gabrielsen, T. Bye and F.R. Aune (2005): Climate change- lower electricity prices and increasing demand.
An application to the Nordic Countries
431 J.K. Dagsvik, S. Strøm and Z. Jia: Utility of Income as a Random Function: Behavioral Characterization and Empirical Evidence
432 G.H. Bjertnæs (2005): Avioding Adverse Employment Effects from Energy Taxation: What does it cost?
433. T. Bye and E. Hope (2005): Deregulation of electricity markets—The Norwegian experience
434 P.J. Lambert and T.O. Thoresen (2005): Base independence in the analysis of tax policy effects: with an application to Norway 1992-2004
435 M. Rege, K. Telle and M. Votruba (2005): The Effect of Plant Downsizing on Disability Pension Utilization 436 J. Hovi and B. Holtsmark (2005): Cap-and-Trade or
Carbon Taxes? The Effects of Non-Compliance and the Feasibility of Enforcement
437 R. Aaberge, S. Bjerve and K. Doksum (2005):
Decomposition of Rank-Dependent Measures of Inequality by Subgroups
438 B. Holtsmark (2005): Global per capita CO2 emissions - stable in the long run?
