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(2) The Barents Sea. A Dynamic Stochastic Food Web model for the Barents Sea.
(3) A dynamic stochastic food web model • Food Web • Stochastic. ? ? ? ?. ? ?. ?. ?. ?. A Dynamic Stochastic Food Web model for the Barents Sea.
(4) Prey consumption (g/day). Stochasticity in prey-predator functional relationships?. Edda Johannesen. Pers. com.. Prey biomass (g/nm2). A Dynamic Stochastic Food Web model for the Barents Sea.
(5) A dynamic stochastic food web model • Food Web • Stochastic • Constrained – Mass Balanced – Satiety and inertia. ? ? ? ?. ? ?. ?. ?. ?. Mullon et al. 2009. A minimal model of the variability of marine ecosystems. Fish and Fisheries, 10: 115-131.. A Dynamic Stochastic Food Web model for the Barents Sea.
(6) Model Principles: Mass-balance ‘Other’ losses. Import. Sp 1. Trophic flow. Sp 2. Metabolic losses. A Dynamic Stochastic Food Web model for the Barents Sea. Export.
(7) Model Principles 2. Mass-balance ‘Other’ losses. (1-EE1). (1-EE2). F2,2. Import. Sp 1. Trophic flow. Sp 2. Export. I1. B1. F1,2. B2. E2. γ1. γ2 Metabolic losses. A Dynamic Stochastic Food Web model for the Barents Sea.
(8) Model Principles: Additional Constraints • Satiety. abundance. • Inertia Too high. Too low. time A Dynamic Stochastic Food Web model for the Barents Sea.
(9) The minimal Barents Sea model 6 trophospecies 12 fluxes 1 import Initial biomasse 4 coeficients For each species. Minke whales . Cod Capelin . Euph. Cop. . Phytopl. . A Dynamic Stochastic Food Web model for the Barents Sea.
(10) Results 1. Time series Copepods. Euphausiids. 400 200 50 year Capelin. 100. 10 5 0. 10. biomass (tons.kmï2). 0. ï2. 0. 0. 50 year. 100. biomass (tons.kmï2). 600. 5 0. 0. 50 year Cod. 100 biomass (tons.kmï2). biomass (tons.kmï2). • Key graphs for 15the results (3 slides) 100. 800. biomass (tons.km ). biomass (tons.kmï2). Phytoplankton. 4. 2. 0. 0. 50 year. 100. 50 0. 0. 50 year Whales. 100. 0. 50 year. 100. 0.15 0.1 0.05 0. A Dynamic Stochastic Food Web model for the Barents Sea.
(11) WORK IN PREP. NOT AVAILABLE. Johannesen et al. In prep. A Dynamic Stochastic Food Web model for the Barents Sea.
(12) 2. Phytoplankton biomass (tonnes/km ). Results 2. bottom up & top –down controls ?. 800 600 400 200. 140. 12. 120. fish (tonnes/km2). zooplankton (tonnes/km2). 14. 100 80 60 40. 8 6 4 2. 20 500 1000 1500 Import (tonnes/km 2). 10. 200 400 600 800 phytoplankton (tonnes/km2). 50 100 150 zooplankton (tonnes/km2). A Dynamic Stochastic Food Web model for the Barents Sea.
(13) Flux per predator. Results 3. trophic functional relationships Phytoplanktonï>Copepods Phytoplanktonï>EuphausiidsCopepodsï>Euphausiids. Flux per predator. Flux per predator. 50 0. Copepodsï>Cod. 10. 2. 0. 0. Euphausiidsï>Capelin. 2. 10. 0. 0. Capelinï>Cod. Prey availability. 5 0. 5. Euphausiidsï>Whales 20 10. 0. Capelinï>Whales. 0. Codï>Whales. Codï>Cod 2. 20. 10. 1. 10. 0. 0. 0. 5. 0. 10. Euphausiidsï>Cod. 20. Copepodsï>Capelin. Prey availability. Prey availability. A Dynamic Stochastic Food Web model for the Barents Sea. Prey availability.
(14) Fe 0. 15. 2. 3. 1. 0. 50 100 150 Results 4. Diet fractions Euphausiid biomass. 4. Diet fraction. 0.8 0.6. Phytopl. Cop. Euph. Cap. Cod. 0.4 0.2. 15. 0. Whale Cod. Cap. Euph.. A Dynamic Stochastic Food Web model for the Barents Sea.
(15) Conclusions • Stochastic model with a few constraints… • Mass-balance, satiation, inertia. • …and few parameters • EE, Metabolic efficiency, Lifespan, Satiation, import, Export. • Simple, Fast and Transparent • Simulates realistic ecosystem features • Set a reference for expected ecosystem properties under a minimal set of assumptions A Dynamic Stochastic Food Web model for the Barents Sea.
(16) Epilogue: decadal fluctuations in top-down/bottom-up control WORK IN PREP. NOT AVAILABLE. Johannesen et al. In prep.. A Dynamic Stochastic Food Web model for the Barents Sea.
(17) Epilogue: decadal fluctuations in top-down/bottom-up control. correlation (fish vs. zooplankton). 1. Bottom-up. 0.5. 0. ï0.5. ï1. Top-down 0. 10. 20. 30. 40 50 time (year). 60. 70. A Dynamic Stochastic Food Web model for the Barents Sea. 80. 90.
(18) Thank you. Poster: S6-P2 A Dynamic Stochastic Food Web model for the Barents Sea.
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