Naturdata Nordområdene

PTIL/PSA

Naturdata Nordområdene

Gerhard Ersdal

Petroleumstilsynet

PTIL/PSA

Generelt

• Petroleumstilsynet deltar i arbeidet med å utvikle

NORSOK N-003, som blant annet inkluderer informasjon om værdata og naturdata for nordområdene

• De fleste kartene i denne presentasjonen er utviklet av / for komitéen for denne standarden.

• Komitéen består av 2 professorer fra NTNU, 2 professorer fra UiS, 1 forsker fra Marintek, og 4 representanter fra industrien (DNV, Statoil).

• I tillegg er det tatt inn ekstern ekspertise på flere

områder, blant annet i forbindelse med nordområdene

• Kartene er foreløpig ikke begrenset til Norske områder.

Det vil de bli. Vi skal ikke gi krav for andre lands områder.

PTIL/PSA

Bakgrunnsdata - Værdata

• As stated in NORSOK N-003:

• The NORA10 hindcast model covers the period 1958 – 2011.

• The model contains hindcast data on wind, waves and meteorological parameters (air temperature, humidity, air pressure and precipitation) in 3 hourly intervals.

• The model has been extensively validated versus

measurements and shows very good skill.

PTIL/PSA

Bakgrunnsdata - isutbredelse

• As stated in NORSOK N-003:

• Sea-ice charts for the period 1967 to 2012 have been analysed.

• Charts for the period 1967-2002 are gathered from the

“ACSYS Historical Ice Chart Archive (1553-2002)”.

• Charts for the period January 2003–October 2012 have

been received from Istjenesten (Ice Service) at met.no,

Tromsø.

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Limits of sea ice extent in the western Barents Sea

with annual probability of exceedance of 10^-1, 10^-2 and 10^-4.

PTIL/PSA

Limit for collision with icebergs with a probability of exceedance of 10^-2 (solid line) and 10^-4 (dotted line).

PTIL/PSA

Ptils vurdering av N-003

• Solid og grundig arbeid ligger bak disse vurderingene av naturforhold.

• God basis for sikker utforming av innretningene.

• Noen utfordringer gjenstår, spesielt i forhold til hvordan

disse naturdataene vil påvirke utforming av innretninger

og operasjoner.

PTIL/PSA

Mulige forenklede kart for vinterisering

• Basert på arbeidet i NORSOK N-003 har Ptil utformet

følgende forenklede områdekart til bruk for vinterisering

og andre formål hvor grovere inndeling av nordområdene

er nødvendige.

PTIL/PSA

Klima og vinteriseringsbehov i

Nordområdene

PTIL/PSA

Klima og vinteriseringsbehov i Nordområdene

A1:

A1 (work in progress)

• WCI should be expected to exceed 1600 minimum 1 day annually. WCI = 1900 will occur with an annual probability of 10^-2.

• Temperatures of down to -20⁰C will occur with an annual probability of 10^-2.

• Moderate icing may occur minimum 1 day annually. Heavy icing may occur 1 day every 10^th year.

• Snow of 0.5 kPa with an annual probability of 10^-2 may occur.

• Polar lows may occur.

PTIL/PSA

Klima og vinteriseringsbehov i Nordområdene

A1:

A2 (work in progress)

• WCI should be expected to exceed 1600 minimum 3 days annually. WCI of 2100 may occur with an annual probability of 10^-2.

• Sea ice may occur with an annual probability of 10^-4.

• Temperatures of down to -20⁰C will occur with an annual probability of 10^-2.

• Moderate icing may occur minimum 1 day annually. Heavy icing may occur 1 day every 10^th year.

• Snow of 0.5 kPa with an annual probability of 10^-2 may occur.

• Polar lows may occur.

PTIL/PSA

Klima og vinteriseringsbehov i Nordområdene

A1:

B1(work in progress)

• WCI should be expected to exceed 1600 up to a total of 25 days annually. WCI of 2500 may occur with an annual

probability of 10^-2.

• Sea ice may occur with an annual probability of 10^-4.

• Iceberg collisions may occur with an annual probability of 10^-4.

• Temperatures of down to -30⁰C will occur with an annual probability of 10^-2.

• Heavy icing should be expected to occur 5 days annually, moderate icing should be expected to occur up to 30 days annually.

• Snow of 0.7 kPa with an annual probability of 10^-2 may occur.

• Polar lows may occur.

PTIL/PSA

Klima og vinteriseringsbehov i Nordområdene

A1:

B2 (work in progress)

• WCI should be expected to exceed 1600 minimum 30 days annually. WCI of 2500 may occur with an annual probability of 10^-2.

• Sea ice will occur with an annual probability of 10^-2.

• Iceberg collisions may occur with an annual probability of 10^-4.

• Temperatures of down to -30⁰C will occur with an annual probability of 10^-2.

• Heavy icing should be expected to occur 5 days annually, moderate icing should be expected to occur up to 30 days annually.

• Snow of 0.7 kPa with an annual probability of 10^-2 may occur.

• Polar lows may occur.

PTIL/PSA

Klima og vinteriseringsbehov i Nordområdene

A1:

C (work in progress)

• WCI should be expected to exceed 1600 up to a total of 50 days annually. WCI of 2900 may occur with an annual

probability of 10^-2.

• Sea ice will occur with an annual probability of 10^-2.

• Iceberg collisions may occur with an annual probability of 10^-2.

• Temperatures of down to -40⁰C will occur with an annual probability of 10^-2.

• Heavy icing should be expected to occur 25 days annually, moderate icing should be expected to occur up to 50 days

annually.

• Snow of 1.0 kPa with an annual probability of 10^-2 may occur.

• Polar lows may occur.

PTIL/PSA

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