Forest Sector Modeling Conference 2013
CONFERENCE AGENDA
TOPIC Forest sector modeling - new approaches and findings for improved resource decisions in a globalized world
DATES
October 15, 2013: Evening Reception (7 p.m.) October 16-17, 2013: Presentations
October 18, 2013: Tour
LOCATION Rica Victoria Hotel, Lillehammer, Norway
Day 1 Tuesday October 15: Reception 7 p.m. at the conference hotel Day 2 Wednesday October 16: Presentations
08:30 – 10:00 PLENARY SESSION 1
08:30 – 09:00 Opening address. Challenges in forest sector modeling. Birger Solberg
09:00 – 10:00 What is EU's policy for wood-based bioenergy and what is its likely development the coming 5-10 years? Knut Øistad - Counsellor, Agriculture, Forestry and Rural Development, Norway's delegation to the EU Mission of Norway
10:00 – 10:20 COFFEE BREAK
10:20 – 11:50 CONCURRENT SESSIONS 1A AND 1B CONCURRENT
SESSIONS 1A:
Climate Change/
Bioenergy I
Mark Boyland, Anne- Helene Mathey and others
Climate change impacts on the forest industry: sizing the economic risks Ahmed Barkaoui, Sylvain
Caurla, Philippe Delacote and Antonello Lobianc
Accounting for socio-economic drivers in climate change analysis with the French Forest Sector Model 2.0
Brent Sohngen, Suk-won Choi and Xiaohui Tian
Dynamic Modeling of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
CONCURRENT SESSIONS 1B:
Timber supply/
Forest owner behaviour I
Sean Pledger, Saeed Ghafghazi, Gary Bull and Warren Mabee
Optimizing logistics of logging debris supply for bioenergy production Marko Marinković, Bojan
Tubić, Damjan Pantić, Dragan Borota and Zoran Tomović
A dynamic programming approach to a problem in forest management
Tachibana Satoshi and Ota
Masahiko Influencing factors on forest transitions in Japan
11:50 - 13:00 LUNCH
13:00 - 14:00 PLENARY SESSION 2
How is technological change included in general equilibrium models, and what can be learned for partial equilibrium modelling? Taran Fæhn, Senior Researcher, Statistics Norway, Oslo.
14:00 - 15:00 CONCURRENT SESSIONS 2A AND 2B CONCURRENT
SESSIONS 2A:
Climate Change/
Bioenergy II
Pekka Lauri Competition between alternative uses of woody biomass resources - how much does it matter?
Bjart Holtsmark The global warming effect of harvesting and combustion of wood fuels
CONCURRENT SESSIONS 2B:
Timber supply/
Forest owner behaviour II
Keisuke Toyama and Takuya Hiroshima
Timber production planning under new Forest Management Plan system in Japanese private forest
Metodi Sotirov, Ljusk Ola Eriksson and Ola Sallnäs
Linking actors’ behavior and modeling of forest land-use: a conceptual and methodological framework
15:00 – 15:30 COFFEE BREAK
15:30 – 16:30 CONCURRENT SESSIONS 3A AND 3B
CONCURRENT SESSIONS 3A:
Climate Change/
Bioenergy III
Jorge H. Garcia and Asbjørn Aaheim
Funding carbon sequestration in foreign countries with a multiple of purposes for forest
management Taisser H.H. Deafalla,
Elmar Csaplovics,Dafa- Alla M. Dafa-Alla and Mustafa M. El Abbas
Spatio-temporal and Socio- economic Based Analysis of Bioenergy Estimation in Semi Arid Condition
CONCURRENT SESSIONS 3B:
Timber supply/
Forest owner behaviour III
Takuya Hiroshima Survival analysis of tree population in a natural forest
Uichi Hayashi, Nagata Shin and Thomas Edward Jones
Estimating the Mincer wage function in Japanese forestry:
Application to the Forestry Workers of seven Forest Owners' Cooperatives in Tajima Area, Hyogo Prefecture
19:00 CONFERENCE DINNER
Day 3 Thursday October 17: Presentations
08:30 – 09:30 PLENARY SESSION 3
The work and present status of the US Environmental Protection Agency regarding developing accounting rules for biogenic emissions from renewable energy production Sara Bushey Ohrel, Economist, Climate Economics Branch, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington
09:30 – 10:30 CONCURRENT SESSIONS 4A AND 4B
CONCURRENT SESSIONS 4A : FSM
Methodology I
Petr Havlík, Mykola Gusti, Nicklas Forsell, Tatiana Ermolieva, Pekka Lauri, Georg Kindermann, Hannes Bötcher, Keywan Riah and, Michael Obersteiner
Linking forestry, land use, and energy models for climate change mitigation assessment
Alexander Moiseyev, Maarit
Kallio and Birger Solberg Linking agriculture,
energy/climate and forest sector global models: Results and experiences from analysing future use of biomass for bioenergy from forest and agriculture CONCURRENT
SESSIONS 4B:
Timber supply/
Forest owner behaviour IV
Almut Jenke Characterizing stakeholder requirements of forest information from large-scale forest inventory and modelling Kana Kamimura, Barry
Gardiner, Axel Wellpott and Sophie Hale
Spatial interactions and
comparisons of wind damage risk in European planted forests
10:30 – 10:50 COFFEE BREAK
10:50 – 12:20 CONCURRENT SESSIONS 5A AND 5B CONCURRENT
SESSIONS 5A : FSM
Methodology II
Hanne K. Sjølie, Greg S.
Latta, Erik Trømborg, Torjus F. Bolkesjø and Birger Solberg
Impacts of choice of forest sector model in policy and economic analyses
Lauri Hetamäki Forest sector modeling and foresight studies – how to combine?
Joseph Buongiorno Technical change in forest sector models: the GFPM approach Andrew A. Erakhrumen Recent Trends in Incorporating
Participatory Approach Models into
Timber supply/
Forest owner behaviour V
Greg S. Latta and Darius M. Adams
The economic impacts of Swiss needle cast on the forest sector of western Oregon
Arezoo Soltani, Prem
Sankhayan and Ole Hofstad
A dynamic bio-economic model for community management of goat and oak forests in Zagros, Iran
12:20 – 13:15 LUNCH
13:15 – 14:15 PLENARY SESSION 4
China’s Role in the Global Forest Sector: Future Demand and Supply of Timber and Forest Industry Products. John Perez-Garcia (Professor, University of Washington, Seattle), Hu Yanjie (Associate Professor, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing,) and Alicia Robbins (Postdoc, University of Washington, Seattle)
14:15 – 15:45 CONCURRENT SESSIONS 6A AND 6B
CONCURRENT SESSIONS 6A : FSM
Methodology III
Yu Huang, Michael Obersteiner, Petr Havlík, Steven Northway and Gary Bull
Price trends and volatility scenarios for designing Canada’s forest sector transformation
Hanne K. Sjølie, Greg S.
Latta, Clara Antón- Fernández, Rasmus Astrup and Birger Solberg
Defining a baseline for national forest scenario analysis: comparison of approaches
Yijing Zhang, Luo, W.
and Anne Toppinen Locational determinants and choice of entry mode: modelling of forest industry foreign investments to China
CONCURRENT SESSIONS 6B:
FSM
Methodology IV
Kyle Lochhead, Valerie LeMay, Olaf Schwab, Gary Bull
Strategic analysis of improved growing stock in the Boreal Forest of Canada using an agent-based forest sector model
Paul Rougieux Estimating elasticities of demand for imports of forest products after a structural break
Ahmed Barkaoui Exploration of the GFPM model by uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods
16:00 GUIDED WALK AT MAIHAUGEN OPEN AIR HISTORICAL MUSEUM
18:00 DINNER AT HOTEL
Day 4 Friday October 18: Field Trip
Starting time What
08:30 Leaving hotel by bus
08:45 Visit at Mjøsen Forest Owner association, Lillehammer 10:30 Leaving to Biri
11:00 Visit at Moelven Mjøsbruket Sawmill, Biri 12:30 Lunch at Krageberg Gård, Biri
13:30 Leaving to Moelv
13:45 Visit at Moelven Glulam factory, Moelv 15:15 Walk to Moelv train station (5 minutes)
15:20 Excursion finished. Train to Oslo airport Gardermoen and Oslo leaves Moelv train station at 15:36
The train to Oslo airport Gardermoen and Oslo leaves Moelv train station at 15:36 (arrives in Gardermoen at 17:01). If somebody wishes to catch the train at 13:30 (in Gardermoen at 15:01) we may arrange this (please notify beforehand). There is also a train at 14:33 (in Gardermoen 16:01). After the excursion, the bus returns to the hotel in Lillehammer for those who stay overnight there.
