Cyclic changes of climate and major commercial stocks of Barents Sea
L. Klyashtorin*, V.Borisov* and A. Lyubushin **
The 12th Russian-Norwegian Symposium
Ecosystem dynamics and optimal long term harvest in the Barents sea fisheries
* Russian Federal Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (VNIRO)
** Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Science
Dynamics of surface air Global temperature anomaly (Global dT) 1861-2000 г.
Annual variations
13-year smoothing
Age-long linear trend
Years
2
Dynamics of detrended Global dT, 1861- 2000
Global dT ( detrended)
Years
3
Temperature dynamics of Arctic region ( 75-900 N) for the last 145 years (data of Hadley Centre)
13-years smoothing
Annual variations
Years Age-long linear trend
4
Comparative dynamics of Arctic temperature anomaly ( Arctic dT) and Global temperature anomaly ( Global dT)
5
Comparative dynamics of Arctic dT (zone of 60-85ОN ) and detrended Global dT (13-year smoothing)
Arctic dT Global dT
(detrended)
Years
6
Spectrum of periodical temperature fluctuation for 1400 years by Arctic pine tree rings
Power spectra (CO )2 years -1
max
7
3-D diagram of periodical temperature fluctuations for 1400 years as analysed by Arctic pine tree rings
8
Title of time series Time series ( years)
Primary (dominant) peaks (years)
Secondary peaks ( years)
Greenland Ice cores 1422 (552-1973) 54 32
Arctic pine tree rings 1480 ( 500-1980) 60 32
Californian pine tree rings 1500 ( 479-1979) 76 32
Californian pine tree rings 8000 (-6000-1979) 55 20-35
Bottom sediments (Sardine) 1700 (270-1970) 57 and 76 33
Bottom sediments (Anchovy) 1700 (270-1970) 57 72 and 99
Global temperature anomaly (dT)
140 (1861-2000) 55 18
Atmospheric Circulation Index ( ACI)
110 ( 1891-2000) 50 19
Dominant periodicity in investigated time series within the frequency range of 20-100 years
9
Global dT
(detrended)
Recruitment
Years
Comparative dynamics of annual recruitment of Atlantic spring-spawning herring and detrended Global dT
10
Recruitment Global dT
(detrended)
Years
Comparative dynamics of Atlantic spring-spawning herring recruitment and detrended Global dT (13-year smoothing )
11
Recruitment
Temperature of 200 m layer along the Kola
meridian
Temperature along Kola meridian (degr C)
Years
Comparative dynamics of Atlantic spring-spawning herring recruitment and average temperature in the 200-m water column along the Kola meridian
( 13-year smoothing)
12
Comparative dynamics of Arctic climatic indices and recruitment of Atlantic spring-spawning herring ( 13-year smoothing)
Global dT (detrended) Arctic dT
Kola meridian temperature
Herring stock recruitment
13
Recruitment Global dT
(detrended)
Global dT( degr.C)
Years
Comparative dynamics of the North-East Arctic cod annual number of recruits and detrended Global dT
14
Comparative dynamics of Atlantic spring-spawning herring and North-East Arctic cod recruitment
(13-year smoothnig)
Cod recruitment
Cod stock recruitment (mill.)
Herring stock recruitment
Years
15
Cod recruitment (shifted 10 years
back)
Herring stock recruitment
Years
Comparative dynamics of Atlantic spring-spawning herring and North-East Arctic cod recruitment shifted 10 years back
(13-year smoothnig)
16
Comparative dynamics of the Barents sea free of ice area and Global dT, (13-year smoothing
)
17
Comparative dynamics of the Barents sea free of ice area shifted 10- years back and Global dT, (13-year smoothing
)
18
Years
Recruitment of cod Free of ice
water area
Comparative dynamics of North-East Arctic cod recruitment and the Barents sea free of ice area (13-year smoothing)
19
Recruitment (mill.3-year-old)
Years
Recruitment of cod
(shifted back 6 years)
Free of ice water area
Comparative dynamics of North-East Arctic cod recruitment (shifted by 6 year back) and the Barents sea free of ice area (13-year smoothing)
20
Comparative dynamics of Atlantic water passage through
Faroe-Shetland strait to the North and ice-free area of Barents Sea (13-year smoothing)
Water passage to the North
Ice-free water area of Barents Sea
Years
Water passage to the North ( mill cub. m/sec)
21
Comparative dynamics of Atlantic water passage to the North through Faroe- Shetland strait and North-East Arctic cod recruitment
(13-year smoothing)
22
L.B.Klyashtorin and A.A. Luybushin
Cyclic climate changes and fish productivity
VNIRO Publishing,, 234p., 160 figures, Moscow,Russia
2005
Annotation ,Contents and Figure сaptions is in English
NEW BOOK 23
The projected trend of spawning stock biomass of Atlantic spring-spawning herring for the next 50 years.
60-year harmonics
Years Biomass
24
Years Stock size
60-year harmonics
The projected trend of of North-East Arctic cod stock size for the next 50 years
