INA fagrapport 36
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Sjur Baardsen, Tron Eid, Hans Fredrik Hoen (eds.)
ISSN: 1891-2281
1RUZHJLDQ8QLYHUVLW\RI/LIH6FLHQFHV
Faculty of Environmental Science and Technology
Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management
1
Festschrift in honor of professors Ole Hofstad and Birger Solberg
Editors:
Sjur Baardsen, Tron Eid, Hans Fredrik Hoen
2
Baardsen, S.1, Eid, T.1,Hoen, H.F.1 (eds.) 2016. Festschrift in honor of professors Ole Hofstad and Birger Solberg. - INA fagrapport 36. 194 pp.
1Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU).
Ås, August 2016 ISSN: 1891-2281
COPYRIGHT
© Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU)
The publication may be cited freely where the source is acknowledged.
AVAILABILITY
Open
PUBLICATION TYPE
Digital document (pdf)
EDITORS
Sjur Baardsen, Tron Eid, Hans Fredrik Hoen
QUALITY CONTROLLED BY
The Research committee (FU), INA, NMBU
PRINCIPAL
Hans Fredrik Hoen, [email protected]. Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, 1432 Ås.
COVER PICTURES
Photo (left): Lars Helge Frivold Photo (right): Ole Martin Bollandsås
NØKKELORD
Skogbruk, skogøkonomi, skogplanlegging, skogpolitikk, REDD+, skogsektormodellering, bioøkonomi, klimaendringer
KEYWORDS
Forestry, forest economics, forest management planning, forest policy, REDD+, forest sector modelling, bioeconomy, climate change
3
BIOGRAPHIES
4
Birger Solberg
ͲǤͲǤͳͻͶ¤ǡ
ȋȌ
ͳͻͷǤͳͻʹǤ Ǥ
ȋȌǤ
ǡǤ Ǥǡ ǡ
Ǥ ͳͻʹͳͻ͵ǡ
ͺ
ȋ Ȍǡ
ͳͻ͵
ǡ
Ǥ ͳͻͷͳͻͻǡ
ǡǤ
ȋͳͻͺͲǦͳͻͺʹȌ ȋͳͻͺʹǦͳͻͻͲȌ ǡǤ
ͳͻͺͺǡ Ǥ ǤǦ
Dz
dzǤ
ͳͻͻͲͳͻͻʹ
ǡǡ
Ȁ
ȋȌǤͳͻͻ͵
ȋ Ȍ Ǥ ͳͻͻ
ǡͳͻͻͺ
ȋ ȌǡǡʹͲͳǤ
ͳͻͺǦͳͻͺͺʹͲͲͷǦʹͲͲ
ǡǡǤʹͲͳʹǦʹͲͳ͵
ǡǡǤ
ǡ ǣ
ȋͳͻͻͷǦʹͲͲͲȌǡ
ȋʹͲͲʹǦʹͲͲͷȌ ȋǡ
ȌȋʹͲͲͷǦʹͲͳͲȌǡǯ
ȋʹͲͲͲǦʹͲͲȌǡ
ȋͳͻͻͻǦʹͲͲͶȌǡ ȋʹͲͲͲǦʹͲͲͶȌǤ
ǯȋ
Ȍ Ͷ ȋͳͻͻͺǦ ʹͲͲͲȌǯ
ȋͳͻͻͺǦʹͲͲͲȌǤ ǡǡ
5
ǡ ǡǡ Ȁǡǡ
Ǥ ǡ
ȋͳͻͻȌǡȋͳͻͻͺȌǡ
ȋͳͻͻͺȌǡ
ȋʹͲͲͶȌǡ̶
ʹͲͲ̶ȋʹͲͲͺȌǤ
ǤǦǡ ǤǦǤǤǦǡ
ʹͲǤǤǦǤ
Ǥ
Ǥǡ ȋͳ͵ͲǦ
Ȍ Ǥ
ǡ
ǡǦ ǡǦ
ǡǡǡ
ǡ ǦǤ ʹͷ
ʹͲͲ͵ǣ
ǡǢǡǢ ǡǢǡǢǡǢ
ǡ ʹͲͳʹǣ
Ȅ
Ǥ ʹͲͳʹǤǤͳͷǣͳʹǦʹͳǤ
ÞǡǤ ǤǡǡǤƬǡǤʹͲͳͲǣ
ǣǤ ͶʹȋȌǣͳǦͺͲǤ
ÞǡǤ ǤǡǤǡǤʹͲͲ͵Ǥ
ǣ ̵ǡǤ
͵͵ǣͳͶͶǦͳͷʹǤ
ǡǤǤǡǤƬǤʹͲͲǤ
ǣ ǤǤ Ƭ ͶͻͳǣͻǦͳͺǤ
ǤǡǡǤǡǡǤǤǤǢǡǤʹͲͳͶǤ
ǤȋʹͲͳͶȌǡ
ǣȀȀǤǤȀͳͲǤͳͲͳȀǤǤʹͲͳͶǤͲͷǤͲͷͳǤ
ǡǤǡǤǡǤ ǡǤǤǤʹͲͳͲǣ
Ǥ Ǥ
ͳʹȋͳȌǣʹͶǦ͵ͲǤ
ǡǢǡǢǡʹͲͳͳǣ
Ǥ Ǥͳȋ͵Ȍǣ͵ͻͷǦͶͳͶǤ
6
ÞǡǤǤǡǡǤǤǡǡǡʹͲͳ͵Ǥ
Ǥ ͳ͵ȋȌǣͷǦ
ͻ
ÞǡǤǤǡǡǤǤǡǡǡʹͲͳ͵ Ǥ
Ǥ ͳͻȋͶȌǣͶͳǦͶ͵ͳ
ÞǡǤǤǡǡǤǤǡÞǡǤÞǡǤ ǤǡǡǡʹͲͳͷǤ
ǣ
Ǥ ǤǤ Ǥ ͵ͲȋͳȌǣͲǦʹǤ
ǡǤǡǤǡǤǤǤƬǤʹͲͳͲǣ
Ǥ Ǥ
ͳʹȋȌǣͶͺͻǦͶͻǤ
ǡǤǡǤǡǤǤǤʹͲͲ͵Ǥ
Ǥ ͷǣͳͷǦͳͳǤ
ǡǢǡʹͲͳͳǣ Ǧ
Ǥ
ȋȌʹͲͳͳǢͳͲǤȋʹȌǤͳ͵ǦͳͷʹǤ
ÞǡǤƬǤʹͲͳͲǣ
Ǥ Ǥ ͳʹȋͳȌǣ͵ͻǦͶǤ
ÞǡǤǡÞǡǤ ǤǡǡǤʹͲͳ͵ǣ ǣ
ǤǤǤ Ǥ
ǣ͵ͺ͵ǦͶͲʹǤ
7
Ole Hofstad
ͳͻǤͲ͵ǤͳͻͶͻǡ
ͳͻͺǤͳͻ͵ Ǥ
ȋȌǤ
Ǥ Ǥ
ͳͻǤ
Dz Ǧ
dzǤ
ǡ
ȋ Ȍ
ǡǤ ͳͻͺͲ
ȋǦ Ȍ
ǤͳͻͺʹǦͺͻ ȋ
ͳͻͺͷȌ ǡǤ
ͳͻͺͺͳͻͺͻǤ
ͳͻͻͲ
ǡǤ ͳͻͻͳͳͻͻ͵
Ǥ
ȋ
ÞȌ ͳͻͻ͵ǡ
ǦȋͳͻͻǦͳͻͻͺʹͲͲͲǦ ʹͲͲʹȌǤʹͲͲʹǦʹͲͲ͵ ǡ
Ǥ ʹͲͲ͵
ǡ Ǥ
ǡ
ǡ
Ǥ
ǡ Ǥ
ǤǤ ǤǤǤ
ǡ
ǡ
ǤͺǦǤ
ǡ ǡ ǡ
8
ǡ
Ǥ
ǡ
ǦǡǦ ǡ
ǡǤ ͳͷ ǣ
ǡǤͳͻǤǤȋ Ǧ
ȌǤǤ ǤǡǤͳ͵Ǥ
ǡǤͳͻͺͶǤÞǤSkogeierenǡȋͳͲȌǣ͵Ǥ
ǡǤͳͻͺͻǤǤ AktueltfraSFFLǡȋͶȌǣͳͳͷǦʹʹǤ
ǡǤͳͻͻͳǤǤ ǤǤ ǤǤ
ǣͷͷͳǦͺǤ
ǡǤͳͻͻͶǤÞǤǤAftenpostenǡͳ͵ͷ ȋͳͳʹȌǣͳͷǤ
ǡǤͳͻͻǤ ǤǤ
ǣ͵͵ǣͳǦ͵ʹǤ
ǡǤʹͲͲͷǤ
ǤǤ ͳǣͶͳ͵ǦͳͺǤ
ǡǤʹͲͲͺǤ Ȃ
Ǥ ͶʹǣͶͶͳǦͷʹǤ
ǡǤǤǤʹͲͳͷǤ
ΪȂ ǡ
Ǥ ͷͳǣͻǦͳǤ
ǡǤǡǤÚǤʹͲͲͻǤ
ǫǤʹ͵ǦͶͺǤetal.ȋǤȌǣRealisingREDDΪǣNationalstrategy andpolicyoptionsǤ ǡǡǤ
ǡǤǡǤǤǤʹͲͲǤ Ǧ
ǣ Ǥ ͻǣͶͻǦͻͷǤ
ǡǤǤǤʹͲͲͳǤǦ ǡ
ǡǦ ǣ
. ǣ͵ͺǣͶʹ͵ǦͶͲǤ
ǡǤǤǡǤǤǡǤǤǤʹͲͲ͵ǤǦ
Ǥ
ƬǣͻͶǣͳͲͷǦͳǤ
ǡǤǡǤǤǤʹͲͳͶǤ Ǧ
ǡǤ
ͳͲǣͳͶǦͳͺͷǤ
ǡǤǡǤǡǤ§ǤǤʹͲͲͷǤǦ
Ǥ ʹͲǣʹͲǦ ͳͻǤ
9
Preface
ͶͲ Ǥ ǡǡ
ǡ
ǡǤ ǡ
ǡǤ
ǡ Ǥ
ʹͲͳǤ
ǡǡ
ǡ
Ǥ ǡ
ǡǦ
ǦǤ
Ǥ
Ǥ
Ǥ
%ǡʹͲͳ
10
Forord
¤ͶͲ
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Þǡ¤
ǤǡǡǤ
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¤ʹͲͳǤ ¤
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¤Þǡ¤Ǥ
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¤ǡǦǤ
Þ¤Ǥ
Ǥ¤
Ǥ
%ǡʹͲͳ
11
Contents
ͳǤ ǦǣȂȂǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳ͵
ʹǤ ǣ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤʹͳ
͵Ǥ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ͵ͻ ͶǤ Ȃ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͶͻ ͷǤ Ǧ Ȃ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͷͻ
Ǥ ǣ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͷ
Ǥ ǦǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͺ͵
ͺǤΪǣ Ǧ ǫǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͻ
ͻǤǦ ǣ
ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳͲͻ ͳͲǤǦ ǣ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳͳͷ ͳͳǤȂ
Ȃ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳʹͳ ͳʹǤ ǡ Ǥ
ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳʹͻ ͳ͵Ǥ Ǧ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳ͵ͷ ͳͶǤǦ Ȃ ǫͳͶ
ͳͷǤ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳͷͷ ͳǤ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳͳ ͳǤǣǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳ͵
ͳͺǤ ǦǫǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳͺ
12
13
1. The EFI-GTM model: past – present – future
A.MaaritI.Kallio
1,AlexanderMoiseyev
2
1NaturalResourcesInstituteFinland(Luke)
2NorwegianUniversityofLifeSciences
Introduction
Ǧ Ǥ
ǯ ͳͻͻ ǡ
Ǥǡ
ǡ
Ǥ
ǡǡ
ǡ ǦǤǡ
Ǧ
ǤǦ
Ȁ ȋͳͻͺͲȌǡ
ȋͳͻͺͶǡǤͳͻͻ͵Ȍ
Ȁ ȋǤͳͻͻͺǡǤʹͲͲ͵Ȍǡ
ȋ Dz dzȌ
ͳͻͺͲȋǤͳͻͺȌǤ
Ǧ ǡ DzdzǤ
Ǧ Ǧ
ǡ
Ǥ ǡ
ȋ ǡ
ǡ Ȍǡ ǡ
ǡ
ȋǡ Ȍ Ǥ
14
Ǧ partial ǡ
ǡ
ǡ ǡ
Ǥspatial ǡ ǡ
Ǥ
ȋͳͻͷʹȌ Ǥ
ǯ ǯ
ǡǡ Ǥ
ǦǦ ǤȋȌ
Ǥ ǡ
Ǥ ǡ
Ǥ ǡ
ǡ
ǡ Ǥ ǡ
ǡ
Ǥ
ǡȋʹͲͲͶȌǡ
ȋǤǤǡ
Ȍ Ǥ
Pastusesofthemodel
Ǧ
ǡ ǡǡ
ǡ
ǡ
ǡ ǡǡ ǡ
ǡ ǡ Ǥ ǡ
Ǥ Ǧ
ȋǤǤǡʹͲͲʹͲͲǡʹͲͲͺǡ
ȋǡ ʹͲͳͳȌǡ Ǥ ʹͲͳͷȌ
Ǧ Ǥ
Ǥ
15
Ǧ Ǧ ȋ Ǥǡ ʹͲͲ͵Ȍ
Ǥ
ʹǤ ǯ
Ǥ
ǡ
Ǥ
Ǧ ȋǡ
ǡ ǤȌǤ
Ǥ ȋʹͲͲȌ
Ǥ Ǧǡ
ǡ͵ΨͷΨǡ Ǥ
Ǥ
ǡ Ǥ
Ǥ
ǡǤǤǡ
ǡ ȋ Ȍ ǡ
ǤȋʹͲͳͲȌǡǯ
ǡǤȋʹͲͳͲȌǤ Ǧ
ȋʹͲͲͺȌǤ Ǥ ȋʹͲͳͲȌ
ǡ ȋ
ȌǤǡ
ǡ
ǡ ǯ
Ǥ
ȋȌ ʹͲͳ͵Ǥ
ǤȋʹͲͳͲȌ ǯ
Ǥ ǡ
Ǥ
Ǥ
ǡ ǡ ǡ
16
Ǥ
Ǥ ȋʹͲͳͳȌǡ Ǧ
Ǥ
Ǧ
ʹͲ͵Ͳ
Ǥ
Ǥ
ǤǤ
ͳ͵Ȁ ǡǤǤǡ
Ǥ
Ǥ
Ǥ
ǦȋǤʹͲͳͳǡʹͲͳ͵ǡʹͲͳͶȌ
ǤǤȋʹͲͳͳȌ
ͳʹ
Ǥ
Ǥ ǡ ǡ
ǤǤȋʹͲͳͳȌ
ȋʹͲͲǡʹͲͲȌ ǦǤ
ǤȋʹͲͳͳȌ
Ǥ
ȋǡʹͲͳͳȌǡ Ǧ Dz dzDz
dz ǡ
Ǥ
ȋ Ȍ
Ǥ ǡ ǤȋʹͲͳ͵Ȍ Ǥ ǡ
Ǧ
ǡ
Ǥ
ǡ
Ǥǡ
ʹ ȋǤǤǡ ͳͲͲ ̀ȀȌǡ Ǥ ǡ
17
Ǥ
ǡǤȋʹͲͳͶȌ Ǧ
Ǧ
ȋʹͲʹͲȌȋʹͲ͵ͲȌ
ǤǦ
Ǧ Ǥ
Ǧ
ǡ
Ǥ
Futureprospects
Ǧ
Ǥ
ǡ
ǡ ǡ ǡ ǡ
Ǥ
ǡ
Ǥ ǡ Ǧ
ǯ
Ǥǡ Ǧ
Ǥ
ȋ
Ȍǡ Ǥ
ǡ
Ǥ
ǦǤ Ǥ
ȋȌ
Ǥ
Literaturecited
ǡǤǤƬǡǤǤͳͻͺͲǤͳͻͺͲ
ǣ ǡ ǡ ǤForestScienceMonograph ʹʹǤ
ǡǤƬǡǤͳͻͺͶǤ ǡ
ǤJournalofWorldForestResourceManagementͳǣͷǦͺͲǤ
ǡǤǡǡǤǡǡǤǡǡǤƬǡǤʹͲͲ͵Ǥ
Ǥ ǤǤ͵ͲͳǤ
18
ǡʹͲͲǤ
ǫȋ ȌǡǡǤ
ǡʹͲͲǤ ǦǤ ȋ Ȍǡǡͷ͵Ǥ
ǡǤǤǡǡǤǡ¡ǡǤǡǡǤǡ¡ǡǤǡǡǤǡ
ǡǤǡǡǤǡǡǤǡǡǤƬǡǤʹͲͳʹǤ
Ǧ
ǤEuropeanJournalofForestResearch ͳ͵ͳǣͳ͵ͳǦͳͶͶǤ
ǡʹͲͲͺǤ
ǤǤ
ǡǤǤǤǡ¡ǡǤǡǡǤǡǡǤǡʹͲͳͷǤ
Ȃ Ǥ ͳǤʹǤͳǤ
ǤʹͲͳͷǤͻͷǤ
ǡǤǤǤǡǡǤƬǡǤʹͲͲͶǤ ǦǦ
Ǥ ͳͷǤʹͶǤ
ǡǤǤǤǡǡǤƬǡǤʹͲͲǤ
ǣ ǤEnvironmentalScienceand PolicyͻǣͶͷǦͶͷǤ
ǡ Ǥǡ ǡ ǤǤ Ƭ ǡ ǤǤ ȋȌǤ ͳͻͺǤ ǣ
ǡƬǡǤ
ǡǤǡǡǤƬǡǤǤǤʹͲͳ͵Ǥ
ǡʹ
ǤJournalofForestEconomicsͳͻȋͶȌǣͶ͵ʹǦͶͶͻǤ
ǡǤǡǡǤƬǡǤǤǤʹͲͳͶǤ
ǤEnergyǣͳͳǦͳǤ
ǡǤǡǡǤǡǡǤǤǤƬǡǤʹͲͳͳǤ
ǤJournalofForestEconomicsͳȋʹȌǣͳͻǦʹͳ͵Ǥ
ǡǤǡǡǤǡ ǡǤƬǡǤǤǤʹͲͳͲǤ
ǤForestPolicyand EconomicsͳʹȋͳȌǣʹͶǦ͵ͲǤ
ǡǤǤǡͳͻͷʹǡ ǡTheAmerican EconomicReviewͶʹȋ͵Ȍǣʹͺ͵Ǧ͵Ͳ͵Ǥ
ǡǤǡǡǤƬǡǤǤǤʹͲͲ͵Ǥ
ǤForestPolicyandEconomicsͷȋʹȌǣͳͷǦͳͳǤ
ǡǤǡǡǤǡǡǤǤǤƬǡǤʹͲͳͲǤ
Ǥ ForestPolicyandEconomicsͳʹȋͳȌǣͳǦʹ͵Ǥ
ȋȌǡʹͲͳͳǤ Ǥ ȀȀȀʹͺǡ
ǣȀȀǤ ǤȀȀȀȀ ȀǦʹͺ̴ͲͳǤǢ ȏͳ͵ǤͲͷǤʹͲͳȐǤ
ǡǤǡǡǤƬ ǡǤǤͳͻͻ͵Ǥǣ
ǤͳǤͲǤ ǦǦͷʹǤǡǤͶ͵Ǥ
ǡǤǡǤǡƬǡǤͳͻͻͺǤ ǡ
ǡ ǣ ʹͲͳͲǤ
19
ȀȀͲͳǤ ȀǤ͵͵͵Ǥ
20
21
2. Global forest sector modeling: application to some impacts of climate change
JosephBuongiorno
1
1UniversityofWisconsinǦMadison,USA
Abstract
Ǧ
ǡǯȋ͵ͲǡͻǦͺͺȌ
ǡ Ǥ
ȋ Ȍǡ
ǯ
ͳǡʹǡʹǤ ǡ ǡ ǡ
ǡ ǡ
ʹͲͳʹʹͲͷǤ ǡ
ʹͲͷ
Ǥǡ ʹΨΨ
͵ΨͶΨ Ǥ
ǡ ǡǡ
Ǥ
Keywordsǣ ǡǡǡǡ ǡǤ
Introduction
ǡͳͳͻͷͲ
ʹͲͳͶȋǡʹͲͳͷ ͳȌǤ Ǥ
ͳǤͺͶǤͲ ǡ
ǡ ǡ ȋʹͲͲȌǤ
ȋǤʹͲͲȌǤ ǡ
ȋʹͲͲȌǡ
22
ȋ ǤʹͲͲͲǡǦ ǤʹͲͲʹǡǤʹͲͲ͵ǡ
ʹͲͲͷȌǤ
ͳǣ ͳͻͷͳǦͳͻͺͲȋ ʹͲͳͷȌǤ
ȋǤʹͲͲʹȌǡ
ǡ ǡ ǡ
ȋǡʹͲͲȌǤǡ
ȋʹͲͳͲȌ ȋʹͲͳͲȌ
ǡ
ǡǡǡ Ǥ ǡȋʹͲͳͲȌ
Ǧ Ǥ
ǡ
ǡ Ǥ
ǡǡ
Ǥ
ǡ
ǡ ǡǤ
ǡ
Ǥ
Ͳ0.6 Ͳ0.4 Ͳ0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Difference(oC)
Year
Annualmean 5Ͳyearmean
23
ʹǤ
ǡ ǡǡ Ǥ
Methods
Theory
ʹǤ
ǡǡǡ ǡ
ǡǤ
ͳǡ ͳ ͳǡ
ͳǦͳʹǡ ʹ ʹ
ʹǦʹαͳǦͳǤ ǡ
ǡ ǡǡͳʹǤ
ʹͳǡ
ͳǯǡʹǡ
ʹǯǡ
ͳǤǡ
ͳͳʹʹǤǡ
ǡǯǤ
ͳͳǯͳ
ʹʹǯʹǤ
ʹǡʹʹǯǤͳǡ
ǡ