Questionnaire
Note 29.09.2017
Concise on the Risk Concepts and Expressions of FHS / FSTS FHS / FSTS / LOS / MilPed & Method
The note is a response to three core questions (provided by Richard Utne as an information base for his master's thesis at UiStavanger): 1. How do you define risk ?, 2. Do you have examples, defined procedures or guidelines for how risk management is operationalized in your jurisdictional area of responsibility ?, 3. Do you have examples? The assignment is given to the research group via FSTS, who first received the request. The answers are given in an overall description. The information (note + attachment) has been obtained after discussion and information gathering in the research group DU (The unforeseen) at the Defense Staff School, some searches in FOBID (Defense Library / Archives System for Central Public Documents / Management Documents) and through the DU Group's daily knowledge of organization / documents.
There have been no research-based studies / collection. Consequently, the term "risk" may be represented in both internal documents and official management documents and other uses not identified or reported through this simplified review and search procedures, and graded documents are not included.
The memorandum shows a sample of and examples of how the risk concept is treated, defined and communicated primarily by the Armed Forces staff school, within the core areas of education, research and doctrine development. There will also be a continuum with regard to the authority of
"management documents" (ie, referenced NATO documents). We refer the "Staff Handbook" for the Armed Forces Document Hierarchy / Authority, in relation to the term "Management
Documents" (p. 30), which can be downloaded here: https://brage.bibsys.com/xmlui/handle/
11250/2405039
1. There are not identified officially specifically developed definitions / use of the risk term, only applicable to the Defense College / Defense Staff School. In our core business, teaching, research and doctrine development, the risk term is used primarily as expressed in official defense / sector management documents, from civil and general sources (eg textbooks or ISO), or context-specific descriptions / definitions of the term in connection with teaching / projects / research / doctrines (as the individual develops and adjusts for his / her use).
3. In operational contexts, the Armed Forces use largely NATO definitions as the basis for their use and understanding of the "Risk" concept, and then to describe risks associated with the planning, implementation and evaluation of military operations. For example, the main concept "Operational Risk", expressed in two dimensions (NATO, Allied Command Operations Comprehensive Operations Planning Directive, COPD Interim V2.0, Mons:
Supreme Headquarters Allied Poweer Europe, Belgium, 2013a), 4-49) is used:
1) Risk to Mission = Risk associated with achieving operational goals (ie, uncertainty about whether or not goals can be achieved).
2) Risk to Force = Risk of own forces as a result of conditions in the operating environment (where there is military activity) and other players' capabilities and actions in the operation area.
This rests on an underlying understanding that military operations can pose a risk of loss of own strengths, materials and values. This is because the military forces are merely a means of achieving politically determined goals and power while at the same time being subject to both ethical and legal laws and policies applicable to the use of military power.
4. The risk concept is also linked to various aspects of the use of military force and methods of warfare. Central term is the Center of Gravity (CoG). This term is found in various Norwegian doctrines (for the different weapons and common - Armed Forces Joint Operations Doktrine, 2014 (more fully covered in earlier versions), and is thus incorporated into operational guidance documents for the Armed Forces (see also the Staff Manual, attached p. 30 for the division of the document hierarchy / authority, the staff manual applies the risk concept also in several contexts, see attached document.) The CoG concept covers the relationship between own vulnerability and strength, ie the risk of changing the center of gravity during an operation. Such a risk assessment implies the probability assessment of defeat / victory (achievement of politically assigned missions / goals) in the short or long term. Such ratings are also referred to as risk identification (ibid.). However, the term "risk"
alone is not defined in these documents.
5. Overview of some key official documents where the "Risk" concept is used with given specific definition / explanation (documents can be obtained on request):
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6. Risk in the meaning of "Safety Management" in the Air Force Security Management (BF-L 010-1 (2017)), where a number of nearby expressions are also defined and exemplified (document attached).
7. The following is used in the Armed Forces' pedagogical viewpoints (2006) (developed by FHS / FSTS), which is a training document in education, applicable to the entire Armed Forces: "... For training and exercises, risk and safety must be thoroughly and thoroughly assessed in all didactic phases." p. 23).
8. "Risk" is only mentioned once in Meld. St. 14 (Competency for a new era). This document sets out the basis for competence management in the Defense sector (applicable to all agencies). The "Risk" concept is not included as part of the document's main text, but appears in a fact box about the response defense, and is expressed in the light of the risk of others in terms of attacks: "Modern capabilities and high responsiveness will give the one who challenges Norwegian security and independence high risk and costs. "(p. 14).
9. The risk concept is used throughout the DIVØ (Directive for Business and Financial Management in the Armed Forces), but does not contain definitions, and uses the risk concept in the light of traditional (civil) business management, also referred to as the main features of the Staff Manual, attached).
10. As an example of the risk concept defined in research / research reports by FHS / FSTS and projects (which defines itself or uses source-based definitions), a descriptive definition of
"Risk" means that an event is being developed under unpredictable conditions. As a consequence, the outcome may be undesirable or negative, with potentially dangerous loss of life, values or otherwise defined as valuable, essential and important, generally or in a given context. However, an uncertain outcome can also incorporate positive and desired consequences, for example in relation to learning processes in a training context, and which are not planned in advance."