• No results found

Robustness of results

Our results are robust to different specifications and different variables used. In particular, they do not change when we use the number of children alive instead of the number of children ever born.They are also similar if we restric the consumption measure to food only. As we emphasized earlier, the data are only availble for women below 50 years of age. But the mother’s age is a very important variable in all our regressions. When the mother gets older, the effect of an additional birth is to decrease the housheold size and increase the income per capita. Given that the oldest mothers are absent from the sample, we are underestimating the negative effect of an additional birth on the housheold’s size and its positive effect on the household’s income per capita. To check that our results are not driven by the order of the gender-birth sequence, we provide additional tables where we repeat the same analysis but using the gender of the second child as an instrument for the number of consecutive births. In Tables 19 to 21, we only consider heads who have at least 2 children. We control for the gender of the first child. We instrument the number of children by the gender of the second child. This process allows us to check that the results are not driven directly by the gender of the first child. It could indeed be argued that the first boy, who is the heir, is specific and that his gender could play a direct role on how the parents compose their household. This strategy also allow us to control for the gender composition among older siblings. The results are robust over these Tables and consistent with our findings so far:

an additional child increases the number of nuclear members but decreases the number of other members by a similar amount and the household size barely changes.

7. Conclusion

Analysing data from around eight thousand households surveyed in the Nepal Living Standard Surveys, we do not find a significant correlation between the number of children of a couple and their household’s total income and per capita income. To avoid endogeneity biases, we used the gender of the first born child as an instrument for the total number of children.

If the household’s total income and per-capita income are independent from the number of children, it must be that the number of children does not affect the number of people in the household. That is precisely what we have shown and explained. The more children a couple has and the fewer other people they will host, leaving the household size constant. Nepalese households are embedded into larger social networks and those households with fewer children tend to host more other people.

The regressions paint a very clear picture, an additional child increases the number of nuclear family members but decrease the number of other hosts by a similar amount, leaving the household’s size unchanged.

This result has important policy implications. In particular, it predicts that population control policies should not be expected to have a large impact on poverty levels.

The argument relies on uncoordinated and independent fertility decisions between households. It should be clear that if all households have fewer children, and the population size decreases, the average size of the households must decrease (or the number of households must decrease). In this case, the usual presumption that fewer children will translate into higher incomes per capita may be true. More precisely, if the average size of households does not grow with the number of children that people have, an increase in population size should be expected to increase the number of households rather than the size of each household. This could have important consequences in terms of poverty and environmental impact.

Numerous goods are public at the household level, from the primary consumption goods such as a common roof or heating, to more complex products such as insurance arrangements. It follows that increasing the number of households rather than the average size of households should result in a lower consumption per capita that could not be captured in our study. Similarly, public bads and pollution are prominent at the household rather than individual level. As Axinn and Ghimire (2011) argue, households rather than people determine for instance land use and deforestation. These important questions could not be answered here. What we could do is estimate the consumption equivalence scale that leaves the household’s consumption per capita unaffected by an additional birth.

According to our estimates, if a child consumes less than what an adult consumes, then the negative effect of an additional birth on the household’s income is more than compensated by the reduction in the number of adult members, and the income per capita increases.

Finally, the changes in income in Nepal over the last decade are impressive. They are not due to changes in fertility and the underlying forces that greatly reduced poverty therefore remain to be explained.

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Appendix

Figure 4: The process behind the number of children.

Table 2: The gender of the first born and the distribution of consecutive children Gender of the first born Mean # children 25% 50% 75% 100%

Girl 3.8 2 4 5 12

Boy 3.4 2 3 4 12

Table 3: Expected and realised number of children

# Children Expected distribution Real distribution in the sample (n−1) (0.5)n

% % frequency

2 25.00 22.40 1842

3 25.00 22.33 1835

4 18.75 19.03 1564

5 12.50 11.44 940

6 7.81 6.69 550

7 4.69 4.15 341

8 2.73 2.03 167

9 1.56 1.18 97

10 0.88 0.43 35

11 0.49 0.21 17

12 0.27 0.05 4

Table5:Thegenderofthefirstbornandthecompositionofthehouseholds #Hh.Pr(nuclearhh.)SizeofHh.#BirthSpouseChildGrand-child Firstbornboy43220.645.173.400.822.570.16 Firstborngirl38960.675.283.790.822.800.09 Allsample82180.655.223.580.822.680.13 #ChildrenParentsSiblingsNephew/nieceChild-in-lawSibling-in-lawParent-in-lawOthers Firstbornboy0.170.080.070.170.030.030.07 Firstborngirl0.190.090.080.090.030.040.06 Allsample0.180.090.070.130.030.040.06

Table 6: Summary statistics of the main covariates

Land owned (Ha.) 0.53 1.14 0 29 8218

Cows owned 2.09 2.52 0 22 8218

Avg. adult education 3.88 3.74 0 17 8218

Non-farm business 0.32 0.47 0 1 8218

Household’s income(1000 NP R2010) 192.94 2170.37 0.235 181274 8178 Frequent consumption (1000 NP R2010) 107.79 75.42 5.63 1309.94 8218

Rural 0.70 0.46 0 1 8218

Hills 0.51 0.5 0 1 8218

Terai 0.41 0.49 0 1 8218

Survey 2 0.3 0.46 0 1 8218

Survey 3 0.44 0.5 0 1 8218

Table7:Numberofchildrenandprobabilitytoobserveapurelynuclearhousehold (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7) OLS2SLS-1ststage2SLS-2dstageOLS2SLS-1ststage2SLS-1ststage2SLS-2dstage #children0.01***0.06**0.12***-0.82*** (3.52)(2.14)(6.80)(-2.67) Agemother-0.00***0.02*** *nb.children(-6.17)(2.93) 1stborngirl0.42***-0.19-16.16*** (12.59)(-1.28)(-2.71) Agemother0.02***0.92*** *1stborngirl(3.92)(4.86) Mother’sage-0.01***0.10***-0.02***-0.000.09***6.94***-0.10*** (-6.40)(17.66)(-4.67)(-0.54)(15.49)(29.96)(-3.51) HhcharacteristicsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Hh.assetsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Observations8218821782178218821782178217 r20.070.330.050.080.330.53-0.45 K-Pstatistics158.6012.00 tstatisticsinparentheses.Thestandarderrorsareclusteredatthewardlevel.*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 Allregressionsincludewardandtimexedeffects. Hh.controlsincludehead’sageanditssquare,head’sspousesnumber,head’sethnicityandhouseholdsproductiveassets Productiveassetsincludelandandcowsowned,averageeducationofadultmembersandadummyfortheownershipofanon-farmbusiness.

Table8:Numberofchildrenandhouseholdsize (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7) OLS2SLS-1ststage2SLS-2dstageOLS2SLS-1ststage2SLS-1ststage2SLS-2dstage #children0.54***0.34***1.14***5.28*** (31.55)(3.60)(14.55)(4.43) Agemother-0.02***-0.13*** *nb.children(-7.81)(-4.19) 1stborngirl0.42***-0.19-16.16*** *1stborngirl(12.59)(-1.28)(-2.71) Agemother0.02***0.92*** (3.92)(4.86) Mother’sage-0.04***0.10***-0.020.02*0.09***6.94***0.46*** (-5.94)(17.66)(-1.61)(1.76)(15.49)(29.96)(3.98) HhcharacteristicsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Hh.assetsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Observations8218821782178218821782178217 r20.350.330.330.360.330.53-0.21 K-Pstatistics158.6012.00 tstatisticsinparentheses.Thestandarderrorsareclusteredatthewardlevel.*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 Allregressionsincludewardandtimexedeffects. Hh.controlsincludehead’sageanditssquare,head’sspousesnumber,head’sethnicityandhouseholdsproductiveassets Productiveassetsincludelandandcowsowned,averageeducationofadultmembersandadummyfortheownershipofanon-farmbusiness.

Table9:Numberofchildrenandnuclearmembers (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7) OLS2SLS-1ststage2SLS-2dstageOLS2SLS-1ststage2SLS-1ststage2SLS-2dstage #children0.61***0.59***1.47***1.85*** (53.06)(10.43)(34.57)(4.58) Agemother-0.02***-0.03*** *nb.children(-19.78)(-3.11) 1stborngirl0.42***-0.19-16.16*** (12.59)(-1.28)(-2.71) Agemother0.02***0.92*** *1stborngirl(3.92)(4.86) Mother’sage-0.07***0.10***-0.06***0.01**0.09***6.94***0.06 (-16.18)(17.66)(-9.26)(2.50)(15.49)(29.96)(1.44) HhcharacteristicsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Hh.assetsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Observations8218821782178218821782178217 r20.530.330.530.570.330.530.56 K-Pstatistics158.6012.00 tstatisticsinparentheses.Thestandarderrorsareclusteredatthewardlevel.*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 Allregressionsincludewardandtimexedeffects. Hh.controlsincludehead’sageanditssquare,head’sspousesnumber,head’sethnicityandhouseholdsproductiveassets Productiveassetsincludelandandcowsowned,averageeducationofadultmembersandadummyfortheownershipofanon-farmbusiness.

Table10:Numberofchildrenandnon-nuclearmembers (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7) OLS2SLS-1ststage2SLS-2dstageOLS2SLS-1ststage2SLS-1ststage2SLS-2dstage #children-0.07***-0.25***-0.33***3.43*** (-5.77)(-3.18)(-5.41)(3.21) Agemother0.01***-0.10*** *nb.children(4.46)(-3.49) 1stborngirl0.42***-0.19-16.16*** (12.59)(-1.28)(-2.71) Agemother0.02***0.92*** *1stborngirl(3.92)(4.86) Mother’sage0.03***0.10***0.04***0.000.09***6.94***0.40*** (4.99)(17.66)(4.31)(0.37)(15.49)(29.96)(3.93) HhcharacteristicsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Hh.assetsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Observations8218821782178218821782178217 r20.130.330.100.130.330.53-0.78 K-Pstatistics158.6012.00 tstatisticsinparentheses.Thestandarderrorsareclusteredatthewardlevel.*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 Allregressionsincludewardandtimexedeffects. Hh.controlsincludehead’sageanditssquare,head’sspousesnumber,head’sethnicityandhouseholdsproductiveassets Productiveassetsincludelandandcowsowned,averageeducationofadultmembersandadummyfortheownershipofanon-farmbusiness.

Table11:Numberofchildrenandchildrenmembers (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7) OLS2SLS-1ststage2SLS-2dstageOLS2SLS-1ststage2SLS-1ststage2SLS-2dstage #children0.46***0.52***1.40***3.96*** (33.48)(7.31)(23.12)(5.39) Agemother-0.02***-0.09*** *nb.children(-15.88)(-4.74) 1stborngirl0.42***-0.19-16.16*** (12.59)(-1.28)(-2.71) Agemother0.02***0.92*** *1stborngirl(3.92)(4.86) Mother’sage-0.10***0.10***-0.11***-0.01**0.09***6.94***0.23*** (-19.29)(17.66)(-12.01)(-2.06)(15.49)(29.96)(3.20) HhcharacteristicsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Hh.assetsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Observations8218821782178218821782178217 r20.300.330.300.350.330.530.03 tstatisticsinparentheses *p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 Allregressionsincludewardandtimexedeffects. Hh.controlsincludehead’sageanditssquare,head’sspousesnumber,head’sethnicityandhouseholdsproductiveassets Productiveassetsincludelandandcowsowned,averageeducationofadultmembersandadummyfortheownershipofanon-farmbusiness. Thestandarderrorsareclusteredatthewardlevel.

Table12:Numberofchildrenandadultmembers (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7) OLS2SLS-1ststage2SLS-2dstageOLS2SLS-1ststage2SLS-1ststage2SLS-2dstage #children0.07***-0.18***-0.26***1.32** (7.35)(-2.88)(-5.55)(2.10) Agemother0.01***-0.04** *nb.children(7.06)(-2.39) 1stborngirl0.42***-0.19-16.16*** (12.59)(-1.28)(-2.71) Agemotherl0.02***0.92*** *1stborngir(3.92)(4.86) Mother’sage0.06***0.10***0.09***0.03***0.09***6.94***0.23*** (13.31)(17.66)(11.01)(5.21)(15.49)(29.96)(3.74) HhcharacteristicsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Hh.assetsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Observations8218821782178218821782178217 r20.320.330.230.320.330.53-0.03 tstatisticsinparentheses *p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 Allregressionsincludewardandtimexedeffects. Hh.controlsincludehead’sageanditssquare,head’sspousesnumber,head’sethnicityandhouseholdsproductiveassets Productiveassetsincludelandandcowsowned,averageeducationofadultmembersandadummyfortheownershipofanon-farmbusiness. Thestandarderrorsareclusteredatthewardlevel.

Table13:Numberofchildrenandhouseholdincome (1)OLS(2)OLS(3)OLS(4)2SLS(5)2SLS(6)2SLS(7)2SLS 1ststage2ndstage2ndstage2ndstage IncomeInc./cap.Inc./cap.adj.#BirthIncomeInc./cap.Inc./cap.adj. (ln)(ln)(ln)(ln)(ln)(ln) #children0.03***-0.08***-0.04***-0.04-0.12***-0.08** (4.82)(-13.41)(-6.48)(-0.95)(-3.11)(-2.03) 1stborngirl0.43*** (12.51) Mother’sage0.01***0.02***0.01***0.10***0.02***0.02***0.01*** (3.40)(6.97)(4.02)(17.52)(3.32)(4.95)(3.20) HhcharacteristicsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Hh.assetsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Observations8178817881788177817781778177 r20.190.150.130.330.180.150.13 K-Pstatistics156.39156.39156.39 tstatisticsinparentheses.Thestandarderrorsareclusteredatthewardlevel.*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 Allregressionsincludewardandtimexedeffects. Hh.controlsincludemother’sage,head’sageanditssquare,head’sspousesnumber,head’sethnicityandhouseholdsproductiveassets Productiveassetsincludelandandcowsowned,averageeducationofadultmembersandadummyfortheownershipofanon-farmbusiness.

Table14:Numberofchildrenandhouseholdconsumption (1)OLS(2)OLS(3)OLS(4)2SLS(5)2SLS(6)2SLS(7)2SLS 1ststage2ndstage2ndstage2ndstage ConsumptionCons./cap.Cons./cap.adj.#BirthConsumptionCons./cap.Cons./cap.adj. (ln)(ln)(ln)(ln)(ln)(ln) #children0.04***-0.06***-0.02***-0.02-0.10***-0.05*** (12.87)(-18.20)(-6.52)(-0.73)(-4.57)(-2.69) 1stborngirl0.42*** (12.59) Mother’sage0.00**0.01***0.00***0.10***0.01***0.02***0.01*** (2.10)(9.08)(3.43)(17.66)(3.45)(6.56)(3.38) HhcharacteristicsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Hh.assetsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Observations8218821882188217821782178217 r20.330.230.200.330.290.220.19 K-Pstatistics158.60158.60158.60 tstatisticsinparentheses.Thestandarderrorsareclusteredatthewardlevel.*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 Allregressionsincludewardandtimexedeffects. Hh.controlsincludemother’sage,head’sageanditssquare,head’sspousesnumber,head’sethnicityandhouseholdsproductiveassets Productiveassetsincludelandandcowsowned,averageeducationofadultmembersandadummyfortheownershipofanon-farmbusiness.

Table15:Numberofchildrenandhouseholdincome;interactionwithmother’sage (1)OLS(2)OLS(3)OLS(4)2SLS(5)2SLS(6)2SLS(7)2SLS(8)2SLS 1ststage1ststage2ndstage2ndstage2ndstage IncomeInc./cap.Inc./cap.adj.#Birth#BirthXageIncomeInc./cap.Inc./cap.adj. (ln)(ln)(ln)(ln)(ln)(ln) #children0.06**-0.19***-0.07***0.01-0.90**-0.63 (2.36)(-7.57)(-3.02)(0.03)(-2.24)(-1.63) Mother’sage-0.000.00***0.00-0.000.02**0.01 *nb.children(-1.23)(4.45)(1.51)(-0.14)(1.98)(1.47) Mother’sage0.02***0.90*** *1stborngirl(3.79)(4.72) 1stborngirl-0.17-15.42** (-1.16)(-2.57) Mother’sage0.01***0.01**0.01**0.09***6.94***0.02-0.05-0.04 (3.32)(2.35)(2.05)(15.38)(29.76)(0.58)(-1.40)(-1.08) HhcharacteristicsYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Hh.assetsYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Observations81788178817881778177817781778177 r20.190.160.140.330.530.180.070.08 K-Pstatistics11.6711.6711.67 tstatisticsinparentheses.Thestandarderrorsareclusteredatthewardlevel.*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 Allregressionsincludewardandtimexedeffects. Hh.controlsincludemother’sage,head’sageanditssquare,head’sspousesnumber,head’sethnicityandhouseholdsproductiveassets Productiveassetsincludelandandcowsowned,averageeducationofadultmembersandadummyfortheownershipofanon-farmbusiness.

Table16:Numberofchildrenandhouseholdconsumption;interactionwithmother’sage (1)OLS(2)OLS(3)OLS(4)2SLS(5)2SLS(6)2SLS(7)2SLS(8)2SLS 1ststage1ststage2ndstage2ndstage2ndstage Cons.Cons./cap.Cons./cap.adj.#Birth#BirthXageCons.Cons./cap.Cons./cap.adj. (ln)(ln)(ln)(ln)(ln)(ln) #children0.13***-0.11***0.000.11-0.81***-0.54** (9.20)(-7.62)(0.27)(0.54)(-3.45)(-2.54) Mother’sage-0.00***0.00***-0.00*-0.000.02***0.01** *nb.children(-6.32)(3.48)(-1.82)(-0.64)(3.14)(2.37) 1stborngirl-0.19-16.16*** (-1.28)(-2.71) Mother’sage0.02***0.92*** *1stborngirl(3.92)(4.86) Mother’sage0.01***0.01***0.01***0.09***6.94***0.02-0.05**-0.04** (5.55)(4.17)(3.66)(15.49)(29.96)(1.15)(-2.45)(-2.02) HhcharacteristicsYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Hh.assetsYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Observations82188218821882178217821782178217 r20.330.230.200.330.530.29-0.040.01 K-Pstatistics12.0012.0012.00 tstatisticsinparentheses.Thestandarderrorsareclusteredatthewardlevel.*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 Allregressionsincludewardandtimexedeffects. Hh.controlsincludemother’sage,head’sageanditssquare,head’sspousesnumber,head’sethnicityandhouseholdsproductiveassets Productiveassetsincludelandandcowsowned,averageeducationofadultmembersandadummyfortheownershipofanon-farmbusiness.

Table17:Theageofthehousehold’sheadandthecompositionofthehouseholds Head’sage#HouseholdsPr.(nuclearhh.)SizeofHh.#BirthsSpouseChildGrand-child <3116270.664.492.320.702.130.00 31≤.≤4031970.715.243.450.792.880.02 41≤.≤5025740.615.504.240.872.770.24 51≤.≤607420.545.764.561.012.690.46 61780.675.424.581.002.560.42 Allsample82180.655.223.580.822.680.13 Head’sageParentsSiblingsNephew/nieceChild-in-lawSibling-in-lawParent-in-lawOthers <310.230.180.060.010.040.060.07 31≤.≤400.200.090.090.050.030.040.06 41≤.≤500.150.050.080.230.030.020.07 51≤.≤600.100.030.020.360.020.010.06 610.010.000.100.260.000.000.06 Allsample0.180.090.070.130.030.040.06

Table18:Thenumberofbirthsandthecompositionofthehouseholds #Children#HouseholdsPr.(nuclearhh.)SizeofHh.SpouseChildGrand-child 18260.623.570.790.980.02 218420.684.190.781.790.05 318350.684.910.802.450.10 415640.655.660.843.070.17 59400.636.180.863.500.19 612110.627.100.894.360.28 Allsample82180.655.220.822.680.13 #ChildrenParentsSiblingsNephew/nieceChild-in-lawSibling-in-lawParent-in-lawOthers 10.230.210.090.030.050.050.10 20.180.110.070.060.030.040.09 30.170.080.070.100.030.040.06 40.200.060.070.160.020.030.05 50.170.060.110.180.020.040.06 60.140.040.050.270.010.020.04 Allsample0.180.090.070.130.030.040.06

Table19:Numberofchildrenandhouseholdcomposition-secondborn (1)OLS(2)OLS(3)OLS(4)2SLS(5)2SLS(6)2SLS(7)2SLS 1ststage2dstage2dstage2dstage Hh.sizeNucl.mb.Non-nucl.mb.#childrenHh.sizeNucl.mb.Non-nucl.mb. #children0.53***0.59***-0.06***0.32***0.65***-0.33*** (28.09)(45.78)(-4.22)(2.97)(9.86)(-3.59) 1stborngirl-0.10**-0.01-0.09**0.43***-0.01-0.030.03 (-2.24)(-0.27)(-2.52)(12.78)(-0.11)(-0.93)(0.57) 2ndborngirl0.37*** (10.92) HhcharacteristicsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Hh.assetsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Observations7392739273927388738873887388 r20.330.480.130.310.310.480.07 K-Pstatistics119.27119.27119.27 tstatisticsinparentheses.Thestandarderrorsareclusteredatthewardlevel.*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 Allregressionsincludewardandtimexedeffects. Hh.controlsincludemother’sage,head’sageanditssquare,head’sspousesnumber,head’sethnicityandhouseholdsproductiveassets Productiveassetsincludelandandcowsowned,averageeducationofadultmembersandadummyfortheownershipofanon-farmbusiness.

Table20:Numberofchildrenandhouseholdincome-secondborn (1)OLS(2)OLS(3)OLS(4)2SLS(5)2SLS(6)2SLS(7)2SLS 1ststage2ndstage2ndstage2ndstage IncomeInc./cap.Inc./cap.adj.#BirthIncomeInc./cap.Inc./cap.adj. (ln)(ln)(ln)(ln)(ln)(ln) #children0.02***-0.07***-0.04***-0.04-0.12**-0.07 (3.97)(-11.74)(-6.10)(-0.81)(-2.47)(-1.43) 2ndborngirl0.37*** (10.89) 1stborngirl-0.02-0.01-0.010.43***0.000.010.00 (-1.41)(-0.79)(-0.70)(12.65)(0.09)(0.18)(0.03) HhcharacteristicsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Hh.assetsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes Observations7358735873587354735473547354 r20.190.160.140.310.180.150.13 K-Pstatistics118.51118.51118.51 tstatisticsinparentheses.Thestandarderrorsareclusteredatthewardlevel.*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 Allregressionsincludewardandtimexedeffects. Hh.controlsincludemother’sage,head’sageanditssquare,head’sspousesnumber,head’sethnicityandhouseholdsproductiveassets Productiveassetsincludelandandcowsowned,averageeducationofadultmembersandadummyfortheownershipofanon-farmbusiness.

Table21:Numberofchildrenandhouseholdconsumption-secondborn (1)OLS(2)OLS(3)OLS(4)2SLS(5)2SLS(6)2SLS 1ststage2ndstage2ndstage ConsumptionCons./cap.Cons./cap.adj.#BirthConsumptionCons./cap. (ln)(ln)(ln)(ln)(ln) #children0.04***-0.06***-0.02***0.02-0.06** (10.29)(-16.76)(-7.21)(0.86)(-2.36) 1stborngirl-0.02**-0.01-0.010.43***-0.02-0.01 (-2.55)(-1.32)(-1.23)(12.78)(-1.25)(-0.94) 2ndborngirl0.37*** (10.92) HhcharacteristicsYesYesYesYesYesYes Hh.assetsYesYesYesYesYesYes Observations739273927392738873887388 r20.330.250.210.310.320.25 rkf119.27119.27 tstatisticsinparentheses.Thestandarderrorsareclusteredatthewardlevel.*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 Allregressionsincludewardandtimexedeffects. Hh.controlsincludemother’sage,head’sageanditssquare,head’sspousesnumber,head’sethnicityandhouseholdsproductiveassets Productiveassetsincludelandandcowsowned,averageeducationofadultmembersandadummyfortheownershipofanon-farmbusiness.

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contributes directly to a household’s poverty. Using the last three rounds of the Nepal Living Standards Surveys, we investigate the links between household’s fertility decisions and their consequent achievements in incomes and consumption. In contradiction with the popular presumptions, we find that having more children does not have a negative effect on incomes (per capita) and consumption. In fact, because households are parts of extended family networks, those who have fewer children will host other relatives. We show that the size of the household does not change with additional births, only the household composition is affected. An additional birth reduces the number of adult members and increases the number of child members. As a result, it has an ambiguous impact on the consumption per capita, that depends on the importance of the gain in lower consumption versus the cost of a lower income. To identify the causal relationship, we use the gender of the first born child to instrument the total number of consecutive children.

The results question the relevance of the policies and information campaigns

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