-0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Figure 2.6.4.7. North Sea herring. CSA. Log-residuals from the model fit to the aggregated acoustics index of numbers of fish aged 1 and older.
0 40000 80000 120000 160000 200000
1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
Nos of recruits at age 1
M = 1.1 M = 1 M = 0.9 M = 0.8 M = 0.7 M = 0.6 M = 0.5
Figure 2.6.4.8. North Sea herring. CSA. Estimated number of recruits for a range of values of natural mortality (M).
0 2000000 4000000 6000000 8000000 10000000
1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
Total stock biomass (tonnes)
M = 1.1 M = 1 M = 0.9 M = 0.8 M = 0.7 M = 0.6 M = 0.5
Figure 2.6.4.9. North Sea herring. CSA. Estimated total stock biomass for a range of natural mortality values (M).
0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000 4500000
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Figure 2.6.4.10. North Sea herring. CSA. Retrospective analysis, total biomass.
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Figure 2.6.4.11. North Sea herring. CSA. Retrospective analysis, recruits numbers.
0 40000 80000 120000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Recruitment (*1000)
FLXSA ICA SPALY
0 1000000 2000000 3000000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
SSB
0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
F2-6
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
F0-1
Figure 2.6.5.1. North Sea herring. Comparison of EXPLORATORY FLXSA v0.2 with ICA (using same procedure as last year): recruitment, SSB, mean F ages 2-6 and mean F ages 0-1.
Figure 2.6.5.2. North Sea herring. EXPLORATORY FLXSA v0.2 permutation runs; Mean F ages 2-6, SSB and recruitment. In total 16 assessments have been run with changing the following settings for the XSA model:
Fse- shrinkage set at: 0.5 (high) and 2.0 (low)
Plus group set at: 7 and 9
Q age, catchability independent of age, for ages >= 4 and 6 R age, catchability independent on
stock size for ages smaller than: -1 and 3
0 40000 80000 120000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Recruitment (millions)
FLXSA ICA SPALY
0 1000 2000 3000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
SSB (*1000 t)
0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
F2-6
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
F0-1
Figure 2.6.5.3. North Sea herring. EXPLORATORY FLXSA v0.2, comparison of the assessment run using all three age structured tuning indices with single survey assessments:
recruitment, SSB and mean F ages 2-6. Note that XSA cannot use the MLAI survey.
1973 ap 2 1974 ap 2 1975 ap 2 1976 ap 2
1977 ap 2 1978 ap 2 1979 ap 2 1980 ap 2
1981 ap 2 1982 ap 2 1983 ap 2 1984 ap 2
1985 ap 2 1986 ap 2 1987 ap 2 1988 ap 2
1989 ap 2 1990 ap 2 1991 ap 2 1992 ap 2
1993 ap 2 1994 ap 2 1995 ap 2 1996 ap 2
1997 ap 2 1998 ap 2 1999 ap 2 2001 ap 2
2002 ap 2 2003 ap 2 2004 ap 2
Figure 2.6.6.1a. North Sea herring. An example of the spatial distribution of stations and values for the spatial and seasonal coverage of the Larvae survey. Area / period 2: the second coverage of the Orkney Shetland area (circles are on a log scale) See Table 2.3.2.3 for definitions of periods and areas.
1974 ap 10 1975 ap 10 1976 ap 10 1978 ap 10
1979 ap 10 1980 ap 10 1982 ap 10 1983 ap 10
1984 ap 10 1985 ap 10 1986 ap 10 1987 ap 10
1988 ap 10 1989 ap 10 1990 ap 10 1991 ap 10
1992 ap 10 1993 ap 10 1994 ap 10 1995 ap 10
1996 ap 10 1997 ap 10 1998 ap 10 1999 ap 10
2001 ap 10 2002 ap 10 2003 ap 10 2004 ap 10
Figure 2.6.6.1b. North Sea herring. An example of the spatial distribution of stations and values for the spatial and seasonal coverage of the Larvae survey. Area / period 10: the second coverage of the area IVc (circles are on a log scale). See Table 2.3.2.3 for definitions of periods and areas.
1977 1978 1979 1980
1981 1982 1983 1984
1985 1986 1987 1988
1989 1990 1991 1992
1993 1994 1995 1996
1997 1998 1999 2000
2001 2002 2003 2004
2005
Figure 2.6.6.2. North Sea herring. The spatial distribution of stations and values for the spatial coverage of the MIK 0wr survey. Circles indicate catch rates per unit of surface area and are on a linear scale.
1983
Figure 2.6.6.3a. North Sea herring. The spatial distribution of stations and values for the spatial coverage of the IBTS 2wr survey. Circles indicate catch rates per unit of surface area and are on a linear scale.
1983
Figure 2.6.6.3b. North Sea herring. The spatial distribution of stations and values for the spatial coverage of the IBTS 4 wr survey. Circles indicate catch rates per unit of surface area and are on a linear scale.
1989 age 2i
1990 age 2i
1991 age 2i
1992 age 2i
1993 age 2i
1994 age 2i
1995 age 2i
1996 age 2i
1997 age 2i
1998 age 2i
1999 age 2i
2000 age 2i
2001 age 2i
2002 age 2i
2003 age 2i
2004 age 2i
Figure 2.6.6.4a. North Sea herring. The spatial distribution of stations and values for the spatial coverage of the Acoustic 2wr immature group survey, note the high abundance of immature 2wr herring in 2003, the slow growing 2000 yearclass. Circles indicate catch rates per unit of surface area and are on a linear scale. (The immature component is used to estimate the maturity ogive used in the assessment)
1989 age 2m
1990 age 2m
1991 age 2m
1992 age 2m
1993 age 2m
1994 age 2m
1995 age 2m
1996 age 2m
1997 age 2m
1998 age 2m
1999 age 2m
2000 age 2m
2001 age 2m
2002 age 2m
2003 age 2m
2004 age 2m
Figure 2.6.6.4b. North Sea herring. The spatial distribution of stations and values for the spatial coverage of the Acoustic survey 2wr mature. Circles indicate catch rates per unit of surface area and are on a linear scale. (The mature component is used to estimate the maturity ogive used in the assessment)
1989 age 4
1990 age 4
1991 age 4
1992 age 4
1993 age 4
1994 age 4
1995 age 4
1996 age 4
1997 age 4
1998 age 4
1999 age 4
2000 age 4
2001 age 4
2002 age 4
2003 age 4
2004 age 4
Figure 2.6.6.4c. North Sea herring. The spatial distribution of stations and values for the spatial coverage of the Acoustic 4wr survey. Circles indicate catch rates per unit of surface area and are on a linear scale.
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
0100200300400500
MLAI Index
Year
Index
Figure 2.6.6.5 North Sea herring. Multiplicative Larvae Abundance Index (MLAI) used as an SSB index, box and whisker plot derived from bootstrap of station data.
1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
0100200300400
MIK Index
Year
Index
Figure 2.6.6.6. North Sea herring. Methot Issacs Kidd (MIK) 0wr recruitment index, box and whisker plot derived from bootstrap of station data.
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
2000400060008000
IBTS Q 1 Age 1
Year
Index
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
0200040006000800010000
IBTS Q 1 Age 2
Year
Index
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
0500100020003000
IBTS Q 1 Age 3
Year
Index
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
0500100015002000
IBTS Q 1 Age 4
Year
Index
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
02004006008001000
IBTS Q 1 Age 5
Year
Index
Figure 2.6.6.7. North Sea herring. International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) 1-5 wr indices, box and whisker plot derived from bootstrap of station data.
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
0 e+001 e+072 e+073 e+074 e+07
Acoustic Age 1
Year
Index
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
5.0 e+061.5 e+072.5 e+07
Acoustic Age 2
Year
Index
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
0.0 e+005.0 e+061.0 e+071.5 e+07
Acoustic Age 3
Year
Index
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
0 e+002 e+064 e+066 e+06
Acoustic Age 4
Year
Index
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
0 e+002 e+064 e+066 e+06
Acoustic Age 5
Year
Index
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
0500000100000015000002000000
Acoustic Age 6
Year
Index
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
0 e+004 e+058 e+05
Acoustic Age 7
Year
Index
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
0 e+002 e+054 e+056 e+058 e+05
Acoustic Age 8
Year
Index
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
0 e+002 e+054 e+05
Acoustic Age 9
Year
Index
Figure 2.6.6.8. North Sea herring. ICES Coordinated Acoustic Survey 1-9+ wr indices, box and whisker plot derived from bootstrap of estimates at age by stat rectangle data.
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
0.030.040.050.060.070.08
Acoustic Age 1
Year
Index
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
0.100.120.140.16
Acoustic Age 2
Year
Index
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
0.140.160.180.200.22
Acoustic Age 3
Year
Index
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
0.180.200.220.240.26
Acoustic Age 4
Year
Index
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
0.160.180.200.220.240.260.28
Acoustic Age 5
Year
Index
=
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
0.180.200.220.240.260.280.300.32
Acoustic Age 6
Year
Index
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
0.220.240.260.280.300.32
Acoustic Age 7
Year
Index
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
0.200.250.300.35
Acoustic Age 8
Year
Index
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
0.200.250.300.35
Acoustic Age 9
Year
Index
Figure 2.6.6.9. North Sea herring. Acoustic Survey 1-9+ wr mean weights, box and whisker plot derived from bootstrap of estimates at age by stat rectangle data.
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
0.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
Acoustic Age 2
Year
Index
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
0.50.60.70.80.91.0
Acoustic Age 3
Year
Index
Figure 2.6.6.10 North Sea herring. ICES Coordinated Acoustic Survey 2 and 3 wr fraction mature, box and whisker plot derived from bootstrap of estimates at age by stat rectangle data.
MLAI Index
1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Year
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Year
Figure 2.6.7.1. North Sea herring. Variance of log survey abundance at age by year (a) MLAI SSB Index, (b) MIK 0wr survey, (c) IBTS 1-5wr survey (d) Acoustic 1-9wr
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
0 e+001 e+062 e+063 e+06
SSB (t)
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
0.00.51.01.5
Mean Fishing Mortality Age 2-6
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 0.0 e+004.0 e+078.0 e+071.2 e+08 Recruitment age 0
Figure 2.6.8.1. North Sea herring. Results of assessments using FLXSA with 2005 settings using bootstrap data for all surveys, weights at age, maturities at age and catch at age. (SSB refers to SSB at 1st of January and should not be confused with as SSB at spawning time which is used for management and includes the proportion of F and M in the year before spawning. )
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
050000015000002500000
SSB (t)
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
0.00.51.01.5
Mean Fishing Mortality Age 2-6
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 0.0 e+004.0 e+078.0 e+071.2 e+08 Recruitment age 0
Figure 2.6.8.2. North Sea herring. Results of assessments using FLICA with 2005 settings using bootstrap data for all surveys, weights at age, maturities at age and catch at age. (SSB refers to SSB at 1st of January and should not be confused with as SSB at spawning time which is used for management and includes the proportion of F and M in the year before spawning. )
0 e+001 e+062 e+063 e+064 e+06 SSB
0.0 e+005.0 e+071.0 e+081.5 e+08 Rec 0
2001 2004
Figure 2.6.8.3. North Sea herring. Variability in the FLXSA assessments (2005 settings) due to data variability and a small range of model settings (see Section 2.6.5), These model changes make no significant difference to the assessment. (SSB refers to SSB at 1st of January and should not be confused with as SSB at spawning time which is used for management and includes the proportion of F and M in the year before spawning. )
0 e+001 e+062 e+063 e+064 e+06 SSB
0.0 e+005.0 e+071.0 e+081.5 e+08 Rec 0
2001 2003
Figure 2.6.8.4. North Sea herring. Variability in the FLICA/FLXSA assessments due to data variability and a small range of model settings (last 4 years in the assessment SSB 1st Jan, mean F ages 2-6, Recruitment age 0). Panel 1 2005 settings all data (spaly) Panel 2-5 individual tuning series (MLAI, MIK, IBTS, Acoustic), Panel 6-9 Separable model settings (4-6 years 0.9 to 1.1 F on oldest age) Panel 10 - 11, ICA and XSA compared with same data (MLAI removed), Panel 12 new weighting factors. (SSB refers to SSB at 1st of January and should not be confused with as SSB at spawning time which is used for management and includes the proportion of F and M in the year before spawning. )
0.00E+00
spaly MLAI MIK IBTS Acoust 6yrsep 4yrsep sel1.1 sell0.9 XSAind XSA newwt
SSB
spaly MLAI MIK IBTS Acoust 6yrsep 4yrsep sel1.1 sell0.9 XSAind XSA newwt
F 2-6
spaly MLAI MIK IBTS Acoust 6yrsep 4yrsep sel1.1 sell0.9 XSAind XSA newwt
Recruitment (0wr)
Figure 2.6.8.5 North Sea herring. Variability in the FLICA/FLXSA assessments due to data variability and a small range of model settings (last year in the assessment SSB 1st Jan, mean F ages 2-6, Recruitment age 0). From left to right:- (1) 2005 settings all data (spaly); (2-5) individual tuning series (MLAI, MIK, IBTS, Acoustic); (6-9) Separable model settings (4-6 years 0.9 to 1.1 F on oldest age); (10 – 11) ICA and XSA compared with same data (MLAI removed), (12) new weighting factors. (SSB refers to SSB at 1st of January and should not be confused with as SSB at spawning time which is used for management and includes the proportion of F and M in the year before spawning )
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
050000015000002500000
SSB (t)
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4
Mean Fishing Mortality Age 2-6
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
0 e+002 e+074 e+076 e+078 e+071 e+08
Recruitment age 0
Figure 2.6.8.6 Variability in ICA assessment due to input data. Box and whisker plots of assessments with 390 individual data points removed one at a time from the tuning series and the catch at age in the separable period (last 5 years). (SSB refers to SSB at 1st of January and should not be confused with as SSB at spawning time which is used for management and includes the proportion of F and M in the year before spawning )
Figure 2.6.9.1 North Sea herring. ICA residuals plots for catch separable period, acoustic survey, IBTS, MIK and MLAI from SPALY (top panels), new weights applied to the catch and surveys (middle panels) and new weights applied in combination with truncation of the IBTS (1984-2006) and the MIK (1992-2006, lower panels).
Figure 2.6.9.2 North Sea herring. Weighted ICA residuals plots for catch separable period, acoustic survey and IBTS, from SPALY (left panels), new weights applied to the catch and surveys (middle panels) and new weights applied in combination with truncation of the IBTS (1984-2006) and the MIK (1992-2006, right panels).
0.00E+00 2.00E+01 4.00E+01 6.00E+01 8.00E+01 1.00E+02 1.20E+02 1.40E+02 1.60E+02 1.80E+02