Unemploy‐
ment insurance 2009/2010
Employed 2012
Employed 2012 if unempl’d 2009/2010
Unemploy‐
ment insurance 2009/2010
Employed 2012
Employed 2012 if unempl’d 2009/2010
Immigrant average 0.368 0.886 0.857 0.208 0.872 0.810
Native average 0.099 0.951 0.872 0.075 0.930 0.869
Imm‐native difference 0.269 ‐0.065 ‐0.015 0.133 ‐0.058 ‐0.059
Difference controlled for age, tenure, industry, occupation
0.169***
(0.007)
‐0.016***
(0.005)
0.011 (0.013)
0.057***
(0.010)
0.008 (0.009)
‐0.007 (0.024)
Note: Standard errors are reported in parentheses. Samples are restricted to wage earners in 2008 (i.e., those with registered tenure, industry, and occupation) who remained present in Norway in 2012. Control variables include a quartic polynomial of age, tenure and its square, and indicators for 2‐digit industry and occupation in 2008 (for a total of 114 regressors). Dependent variable in cols I and IV is an indicator for receipt of
unemployment insurance in 2009 or 2010. Observation counts are as follows: 7,519 immigrants and 34,493 natives (cols I‐II); 2,764 immigrants and 3,414 natives (col III); 2,353 immigrants and 33,007 natives (cols IV and V); and 490 immigrants and 2,485 natives (col VI). See also note to Figure 9.
In sum, recent labor migrants from Eastern Europe were far more exposed to job loss during the financial crisis than comparable native workers. And, immigrant unemployment shows greater persistence as immigrant workers have a lower probability of returning to employment once an unemployment spell has occurred. The post‐crisis level of employment among labor migrants is lower than that for natives, but the difference is minor relative to the substantial short‐run variation in unemployment incidence observed during the economic downturn and largely explained by differences in tenure, industry and occupation at the onset of the financial crisis.
5 Children of 1970s non‐European labor migrants
In the longer term, the fiscal impacts of immigration will hinge on the human capital accumulation and labor market outcomes of their descendants. Fertility differences between immigrants and natives also form a key factor in the dynamic analysis of fiscal consequences of immigration, as higher fertility in the immigrant population will alter the composition of age groups with negative and positive fiscal balances (Preston2013). The rate of immigrant‐native convergence in fertility is of interest in its own right as it signals the degree of immigrant integration and assimilation in general.
In this section, we examine education, family, labor market, and social insurance outcomes of the children of the early labor migrants from Pakistan and Turkey. Given the poor lifecycle labor market performance of their parents, the question of how their offspring perform in the labor market and form families is of considerable interest. Will their employment and fertility careers resemble those of their parents, or can we expect them to converge quickly to the outcomes of natives?
Prior research shows that age at immigration is important for economic and social outcomes, and that immigrant children who arrived before school age have better educational outcomes than their older siblings (Böhlmark, 2008; Bratsberg et al., 2012). For this reason, we distinguish between immigrant offspring born in Norway and children who came to Norway with their parents (typically with their mother, 5‐10 years after the father’s original entry), and split child immigrants according to arrival before and after school age (0‐6 vs 7‐16). Throughout this section, we compare the offspring of the immigrants from Pakistan and Turkey with a reference group born to native parents and with the same distribution of birth year as the second generation immigrants. With data including 2012, we can follow these second generation immigrants into their mid‐thirties. This offers ample
opportunity for examining final educational attainment, whereas labor market and social insurance outcomes and fertility patterns can be traced only in the beginning of their career. As for their parents, both unadjusted and conditional differentials relative to native born are of interest.
Evidence of intergenerational assimilation is provided by comparing the outcomes for offspring born in Norway and the outcomes of their parents described in section 3.
To begin, in Table 6 we report observed outcomes at age 30 for the various groups of offspring. We consider three levels of educational attainment: Completion of upper secondary education,
college/university, and a postgraduate degree by age 30. It is evident from the table that, on average, the children of the labor migrant cohort obtained less education than the native comparison group both in terms of completed secondary school and college. However, exposure to the host country school environment seems to matter as immigrant children born in Norway have much better educational outcomes than those born abroad and those who arrived before school age have better outcomes than their older siblings.
Indeed, a striking feature of the table is that, among offspring born in Norway, a somewhat larger fraction has completed a postgraduate degree by age 30 compared to natives (10.1 vs. 9.9 percent for sons and 10.9 vs. 10.3 for daughters). Moreover, a closer look at the underlying data (not reported in Table 6) reveals that, among those with a postgraduate degree, immigrant children are overrepresented in high‐earnings fields of study such as medicine. In fact, within the post‐graduate bracket, fully 41 percent of immigrant sons and 49 percent of daughters born in Norway had completed medical school by age 30, compared to 7 and 10 percent of sons and daughters with a post‐graduate education in the native comparison group. At the same time, the fraction of immigrant children who did not complete upper secondary education exceeds that in the native comparison group. Immigrant children outdo native children in both ends of the educational distribution, leading to much greater variability in outcomes among second generation immigrants than children of natives.
Compared to their parents, the immigrant offspring born in Norway have completed far more years of schooling. While only 33 percent of the fathers had completed upper secondary school (see Table 1), the completion rate among sons is 57 percent. The intergenerational improvement is even more striking among women: only 18 percent of the 1970s female immigrants from Pakistan and Turkey had completed upper secondary school, compared to 66 percent of daughters born in Norway. The attainment gap relative to natives is significantly reduced and the gender difference is turned around from one generation to the next, with girls becoming more successful in school (as is the case for native children).
Table 6: Educational attainment and family and labor market outcomes at age 30, children of labor immigrants from Pakistan and Turkey
Sons Daughters
I II III IV V VI VII VIII
2nd gen born abroad (7‐16 at
arrival)
2nd gen born abroad (0‐6 at arrival)
2nd gen born in Norway
Native ref
2ndgen born abroad (7‐16 at arrival)
2ndgen born abroad
(0‐6 at arrival)
2nd gen born in Norway
Native ref
Completed upper
secondary 28.6 47.0 56.6 74.6 34.4 53.0 65.5 80.2
Completed college 8.4 20.7 25.9 32.8 10.9 20.8 32.6 49.3
Postgrad degree 2.7 6.5 10.1 9.9 2.3 5.6 10.9 10.3
Married, spouse
present 76.8 69.8 53.7 21.3 83.9 77.2 64.1 31.1
Spouse immigrant 93.6 88.0 76.7 6.6 95.7 91.1 78.2 5.1 Spouse native‐born
to immigrant parents 2.4 8.7 16.5 0.1 0.9 4.0 11.3 0.2
Children 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.7 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.1
Outcomes if not enrolled in school:
Employment rate 0.769 0.832 0.820 0.908 0.535 0.568 0.658 0.867 Disability program
participation rate 0.111 0.085 0.093 0.065 0.157 0.169 0.131 0.079
Observations 935 600 1,291 25,742 604 538 1,221 22,335
Obs if not in school 867 509 1,044 20,753 556 456 991 17,035
Note: Employment and disability data are for those not enrolled in school at age 29 or 30. The native reference group is stratified to match the distribution of birth year of second generation immigrants.
Family structures differ importantly across groups. The marriage rate is particularly high for
immigrant children who arrived after school starting age, with 77 percent of sons and 84 percent of daughters married at age 30. Even the immigrant offspring born in Norway are much more likely to be married at 30 than natives. Further, an overwhelming majority of second generation immigrants find their spouse abroad or in the immigrant community. Depending on the group considered, between 90 and 97 percent of the spouses of second generation immigrants are themselves an immigrant or a second generation immigrant. In fact, marriage between a second generation immigrant and someone with Norwegian‐born parents is very rare. Across groups, variation in fertility mirrors that in marital status as the number of children is increasing in age at immigration and even for second generation immigrants born in Norway, slightly higher than for young native adults.
From an intergenerational perspective, fertility patterns are of particular interest as the second generation immigrants considered in this section grew up with many more siblings than the native children in the reference group (see Figure 10). The relatively high fertility rates of their parents also
likely played an important role in explaining the low lifecycle labor force participation patterns of the 1970s cohort of labor migrants and their spouses (Bratsberg et al., 2010). Given that relatively few members of the offspring generation at the present stage can be observed above age 35, it is too early to draw firm conclusions regarding completed fertility. It is possible, though, to examine fertility‐by‐age profiles for the offspring up to around age 35 as shown in Figure 10, and contrast these both within and across generations. For women, Figure 10 reveals substantial convergence to native fertility patterns from one generation to the next. Age at immigration seems to matter and immigrant daughters born in Norway have very similar fertility rates as young native women. At age 35, the female immigrants who arrived during the 1970s had on average given birth to 3.4 children, roughly twice that of native women. Their daughters born in Norway, in contrast, had only 1.9 children compared to about 1.7 among daughters of native parents.
Figure 10: Number of children ever born by age, 1970s immigrant cohorts from Pakistan and Turkey and their children compared to natives.
The convergence to native fertility is also present among men, though less evident than among women. Again, age at immigration appears important and second generation sons born in Norway have much lower fertility than those born abroad. At age 35, male second generation immigrants who arrived after school starting age have, on average, 2.6 children, and those born in Norway 1.6 children, compared to 1.3 among native men of the same generation.
Returning to the labor market outcomes in Table 6, we see that employment rates at age 30 of second generation immigrants are substantially lower than those of natives. For immigrant
0.511.522.533.54
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
A. Men B. Women
Immigrant 2nd gen imm 7-16 2nd gen imm 0-6
2nd gen b Norway Nat ref 1st gen Nat ref 2nd gen
Number of children
Age
daughters, the gap is particularly large and increasing in age at immigration. While 87 percent of 30‐
year old native women not in education are employed, the percentage is only 54 among immigrant daughters who arrived after school starting age. Employment profiles are displayed in Figure 11, panels A and B, where we simply show the unadjusted employment differential relative to natives by age (i.e., not accounting for differences in education and family structure, but accounting for observation year and fitting a quartic polynomial of age to the data). For second generation immigrant men, the employment differential is around 10‐15 percentage points during the age interval 25‐35. Among women, the employment differential is increasing in age and approaches 40 percentage points at age 35 for immigrant daughters who arrived after school starting age. Earnings differentials among those employed are displayed in panels C and D. Immigrant sons and daughters born in Norway have earnings closest to young natives with an earnings gap of less than 10 percent.
And again, immigrant children who arrived after school starting age are the least successful with an earnings gap among daughters exceeding 20 percent.
Figure 11: Differences in employment rate, log earnings, and disability program participation rate between children of labor immigrants from Pakistan and Turkey and natives.
-.4-.20
A. Sons, employment B. Daughters, employment
-.2-.10
C. Sons, log earnings D. Daughters, log earnings
0.1.2
25 30 35 25 30 35
E. Sons, disability participation F. Daughters, disability participation
2nd gen born in Norway 2nd gen imm 0-6 2nd gen imm 7-16 Age
Difference between immigrant and native children
Like their parents, second generation immigrants are overrepresented in disability programs. At age 30, around 15 percent of immigrant daughters receive disability benefits, about twice the level of natives (see Table 6). For immigrant sons, about 10 percent are enrolled in a in disability program, compared to 6.5 percent of the native reference group. The age profiles in Figure 11 indicate that these differentials can be expected to rise during the years to come. Among immigrant daughters born abroad, the disability differentials relative to natives are growing rapidly with age.
Next we account for differences across groups in educational attainment, family structure and fertility, all of which may explain parts of the observed gaps in labor market outcomes. In Table 7, we adopt a similar empirical strategy as we did in Section 3 for the parent generation and study
conditional differences between immigrant and native children in terms of employment, earnings, and participation in disability programs, but evaluated at age 25, 30, and 35 rather than years since arrival. The differentials are based on coefficients from a standard regression framework jointly estimating age profiles for each offspring group, and controlling for educational attainment, marital status, number of children, year of observation, and, in the earnings equation, log municipal unemployment.
Among male second generation immigrants, Table 7, Panel A, reveals small conditional differences in employment of those born abroad and those born in Norway. All three groups have lower
employment rates than native children throughout the age interval considered, varying between 5 and 10 percentage points. Immigrant sons born in Norway experienced more rapid earnings growth than their foreign‐born siblings, however (see Panel B). In fact, at age 35 their earnings are only marginally below those of the native comparison group. Disability program participation is slightly higher than for young native males with the same educational attainment and family characteristics.
In general, when we compare the conditional differentials in Table 7 and the observed (unadjusted) numbers in Figure 11, we see that a substantial part (up to one half at age 35) of the observed differential is accounted for by differences in education and family structure. Comparing immigrant sons who arrived before and after school‐starting age, the adjusted differentials in Table 7 imply relative disadvantages at age 30 for those who were 7 to 16 at arrival of five percentage points lower employment and five percent lower earnings. These estimates are in line with those based on Swedish data in Böhlmark (2009).
To provide an intergenerational perspective, we compare outcomes of the two generations after approximately 15 years in the Norwegian labor market. That is, we compare parents 15 years after arrival with offspring born in Norway at age 35. For male employment, the gap relative to natives shows modest improvement and is reduced from 11.5 to 8 percentage points across generations. The intergenerational convergence is much stronger for earnings and disability program participation.
From one generation to the next , the male native‐immigrant earnings differential declines from 0.253 to 0.040 log points and the immigrant‐native difference in disability program participation falls from 11.8 to 2.2 percentage points.
Among daughters, family structure and number of children in particular are strongly correlated with labor market outcomes. The conditional employment differentials among daughters reported in Table 7 are sizable, but close to one half of the observed differences displayed in Figure 11.
Employment rates among daughters born abroad are significantly below those of their sisters born in Norway. The unconditional earnings differentials for daughters displayed in Figure 11, Panel D, reveal
significant variation in earnings by place of birth and age at arrival. But, as Table 7, Panel B, shows, these differentials are almost completely explained by differences in educational attainment and family structure. On the other hand, the more frequent disability program participation observed for female second generation immigrants remains even when we control for education and family structure. The higher disability rates among immigrant daughters compared to natives may reflect intergenerational spillovers and even a causal impact of parental disability insurance (Dahl et al., 2013).
Table 7: Predicted differences in employment, log earnings, and disability program participation between children of labor immigrants from Pakistan and Turkey and natives. Education and family controls.
Sons Daughters
Age: 25 30 35 25 30 35
A. Employment rate:
2nd generation, born Norway ‐0.081*** ‐0.064*** ‐0.080*** ‐0.092*** ‐0.142*** ‐0.149***
(0.010) (0.010) (0.016) (0.011) (0.012) (0.019)
Born abroad, imm age 0‐6 ‐0.083*** ‐0.049*** ‐0.085*** ‐0.133*** ‐0.194*** ‐0.228***
(0.015) (0.013) (0.017) (0.017) (0.018) (0.023)
Born abroad, imm age 7‐16 ‐0.085*** ‐0.100*** ‐0.099*** ‐0.139*** ‐0.188*** ‐0.212***
(0.011) (0.011) (0.013) (0.017) (0.017) (0.020)
B. Log earnings:
2nd generation, born Norway ‐0.088*** ‐0.065*** ‐0.040* ‐0.027** ‐0.024* ‐0.015
(0.012) (0.013) (0.021) (0.011) (0.013) (0.020)
Born abroad, imm age 0‐6 ‐0.064*** ‐0.070*** ‐0.059*** ‐0.033* ‐0.054*** ‐0.055**
(0.018) (0.018) (0.021) (0.018) (0.018) (0.026)
Born abroad, imm age 7‐16 ‐0.088*** ‐0.116*** ‐0.125*** ‐0.020 ‐0.031* ‐0.012
(0.015) (0.015) (0.018) (0.019) (0.018) (0.023)
C. Disability program participation:
2nd generation, born Norway ‐0.015** 0.004 0.022 ‐0.034*** 0.010 0.069***
(0.007) (0.008) (0.014) (0.008) (0.010) (0.018)
Born abroad, imm age 0‐6 ‐0.035*** ‐0.009 0.017 ‐0.020* 0.033** 0.112***
(0.009) (0.011) (0.015) (0.010) (0.015) (0.023)
Born abroad, imm age 7‐16 ‐0.032*** 0.006 0.042*** ‐0.041*** 0.003 0.059***
(0.009) (0.010) (0.012) (0.010) (0.014) (0.019)
(0.015)
Note: Standard errors, clustered within individuals, are reported in parentheses. Regression includes quartic polynomial of age; the age polynomial interacted with each immigrant child cohort; and indicators for
immigrant child cohort; educational attainment (5 levels); number of children (0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 plus); married, spouse present; previously married; year of observation; and, in panel B, log municipality unemployment rate interacted with native child and each immigrant child cohort (for a total of 69 regressors). The regression samples exclude those enrolled in school the year of or the year prior to the outcome observation. Samples consist of 356,363 observations of 38,390 sons and 270,115 observations of 32,629 daughters in panels A and C, and 312,768 observations of 36,545 sons and 219,988 observations of 30,558 daughters in panel B.
Finally, despite the gaps relative to native children, the differentials found for immigrant daughters in Table 7 indicate substantial assimilation across generations. When we compare outcomes of
daughters born in Norway at age 35 with those of their mothers 15 years after arrival, the employment gap relative to natives falls from 30.5 to 14.9 percentage points, the log earnings differential from ‐0.084 to ‐0.015, and the immigrant‐native difference in disability program participation declines from 8.7 to 6.9 percentage points.
To summarize our evidence on labor market outcomes and disability program participation among immigrant offspring, we find substantial gaps relative to natives in terms of lower employment and earnings, as well as higher participation in disability programs. Even so, there is clear evidence of assimilation across generations. Immigrant offspring born in Norway are more similar to natives than their parents in terms of educational attainment, labor market outcomes, disability program
participation and fertility.