15
Last Mile Deliveries
• Reintroduce logistics space to the Square Mile through retrofitting under utilised assets and delivering new space as part of
developments
• Three methods of operation
– Micro Consolidation – Micro Distribution – Storage
City of Lo nd o n
Last Mile Sites
2022
Outline
• Urban freight context
• Policy, planning and other questions where modeling is relevant
• Complexity and diversity
• Challenges
• Reflections on the use of big data
Complexity of urban freight operations: data implications
• Both goods and vehicles can be studied and goods can be carried by several vehicles
• Number of organizations involved in decision‐making including freight operators, service providers, shippers, and receivers.
• Variety of urban goods operations – in terms of commodity
• Much of the data is held by private organisations and may be difficult to obtain
Data that can be collected about urban freight activity
• Vehicle delivery/collection trips at establishments in the urban area
• Goods flows to/from establishments
• Service trips to establishments
• Trip details and patterns of goods and service vehicles
• Loading/unloading activity of goods vehicles
• The origin location of goods flows / vehicle trips to establishment
Survey techniques used to collect urban freight data
• Establishment survey
• Vehicle observation survey
• Parking survey
• Driver survey
• Commodity flow survey
• Roadside interview survey
• Vehicle trip diaries
• GPS survey
• Freight operator survey
• Supplier survey
• Service provider survey
• Vehicle traffic count survey
An example of deliveries in urban space in a working day
Space – Time – Organisabon
...and flows
Round duration: 7.82 hrs Total driving time: 1.77 hrs Total parking time: 6.05 hrs Average speed: 1.89 km/hr
#parking stops: 35
#items delivered: 119
Last‐mile complexity
Source: FTC2050 Project (Cherrett, 2017)Outline
• Urban freight context
• Policy, planning and other questions where modeling is relevant
• Complexity and diversity
• Challenges
• Reflections on the use of big data
Challenges
• Challenges driven by complexity and rapid change
• Challenges driven by lack or limitations of knowledge/data
• Gaps in communication
Challenges driven by complexity and rapid change
• Including the supply chain is difficult
• Behavioral issues generally weaker
• Value and reliability of trip generation studies affected by rapid change – examples from e‐commerce and also
changes in some sectors e.g. offices
• Number and variety of stakeholders in urban freight
• Speed of technology development and adoption
Challenges driven by a lack of or limitations of knowledge/data
• Major challenge of information about smaller freight vehicles (below 3.5T). These smaller vehicles also used for service trips and
'commuting'.
• Combining information about vehicles and goods flows.
• Understanding commodity flows is difficult.
• Comparisons can be difficult as data is not collected in a consistent way.
• Definitions and terminology seem to be surprisingly non‐standard:
trip, tour, leg, journey, round, delivery, consignment, item, package etc
Gaps
• Practitioners and research (and among researchers)
• Urban freight modeling and research on policy and
business decisions. Policy research often fails to frame the question in a way that is relevant or interesting to those involved in modeling.
• Practitioner and policy‐maker desire for simple solutions and the need for these to be available in a short time.
• Combining solutions and interventions is important (packages of measures) but advice here is weak.
Outline
• Urban freight context
• Policy, planning and other questions where modeling is relevant
• Complexity and diversity
• Challenges
• Reflections on the use of big data
Challenges and opportunibes
Opportunities
• Growing political interest
• SUMPs
• Data
Challenges
• Heterogeneity: flows, commodities
• Complex interactions stakeholders
• Cities and context
• Gaps between disciplines/interests
Some more reflections
• Combining information will remain important
• Questions are not always very clear – maybe there are ways to support this
• Willingness to share – who will take the lead?
• Level of disaggregation will be important
• Is there a role for intermediaries ‘honest brokers’
Thank you
Edited book on Urban Logistics published January 2019
https://www.koganpage.com/product/urban‐logistics‐9780749478711 Urban LogisNcs: Management, Policy and InnovaNon in a Rapidly Changing Environment
Michael Browne, Sönke Behrends, Johan Woxenius, Genevieve Giuliano, José Holguin‐Veras
Understand the importance of city infrastructure, transport planning and the implicabons for urban logisbcs with this in‐
depth, research‐based book.
Acknowledgements
Michael Browne
Professor of Logistics and Urban Freight Transport University of Gothenburg
Department of Business Administration School of Business, Economics and Law
Box 610, SE‐405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden email: [email protected] tel: +46 31 7866798
With acknowledgements to colleagues from the Urban Freight Platform, CoE Sustainable Urban Freight Systems and CoE MetroFreight.
However, any views and comments expressed in the presentation are those of the presenter – MichaelBrowne.
1) Urban Freight Platform an initiative at University of Gothenburg and Chalmers supported by the Volvo Research & Educational Foundations (VREF):
http://www.chalmers.se/en/centres/lead/urbanfreightplatform/Pages/default.aspx VREF Urban Freight Conference, Gothenburg (17‐19 October 2018) Information and presentations at:
http://www.chalmers.se/en/centres/lead/urbanfreightplatform/vref‐
2018/Pages/default.aspx
2) Center of Excellence: Sustainable Urban Freight Systems (supported by VREF) for webinars and other information available see: https://www.coe‐sufs.org/
3) METROFREIGHT Center of Excellence (supported by VREF) for more information see:
http://priceschool.usc.edu/metrofreight‐the‐localglobal‐challenge‐of‐urban‐
transportation‐planning/
4) Why Goods Movement Matters ‐ by the RPA in collaboration with the VREF
http://www.vref.se/publications/researchsynthesisreports/researchsynthesisreports/w hygoodsmovementmattersbytherpaincollaborationwiththevref.5.1feeef8b156cfde87aa 3d60e.html
Interactive website: http://goodsmovementmatters.org
Links and further information
TOI Oslo Science Park
Oslo 11 December 2019
‘If countries implement all their transport NDC pledges, transport CO2 emissions in 2030 would still be about at
the level of 2015’
Update on the climate science and government commitments
gigatonnes of CO2e in 2030
Business as usual trend 64
Projected impact of current policies 60 COP21 Paris commitments best case 56 Limit for 2.0C temp rise by 2100 38 limit for 1.5C temp rise by 2100 26
Over 60 countries now committed to
warehousing and terminals- 1-2%
administration / IT ? very hard sector to decarbonise
Heavy dependence on fossil fuel High forecast growth rate
Source: McKinnon (2019) ‘Decarbonizing Logistics’
3.3x increase trillion tonne-km
Projected growth in freight movement worldwide between 2015 and 2050
24 gCO2/ tonne-km average
carbon intensity 9 gCO2/ tonne-km
but largely offset by 3.3 times growth in tonne-kms zero
emission target
20% improvement in routeing efficiency 30% modal shift road to rail Rail improves energy efficiency by 50%
and reduces carbon intensity of energy by 50%
30% increase in loading of laden vehicles
30% reduction in empty running
50% increase in truck energy efficiency
50% drop in carbon intensity of truck energy
Leveraging freight decarbonisation parameters to achieve a 6-fold reduction by 2050
achievable even in 30 years ? may not be able meet the absolute CO2reduction target without restraining the growth
in freight movement
+
+ + + +
Should we be expanding infrastructural capacity to accommodate another 20 or 30 Reduction in carbon intensity needed to achieve 60% cut in total freight CO2emissions
Meeting EU 2011 Transport White Paper CO2Target for 2050
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
50
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
50 100 150 200 250
60% reduction cumulative emissions 2015‐2050: 34% lower
both meet 2011 Transport White Paper CO2reduction target peak 2015
more gradual decline CO2index 1990 = 100
need to embed concept of carbon budgeting in logistics strategies and policy-making
Ideal Scenario for Achieving Zero Carbon Logistics
• Decarbonise electricity generation
• Electrify all logistical activities
• Ensure there is enough zero carbon electricity to meet demand
Source: International Energy Agency (2019) 0
100 200 300 400 500 600
2010 2018
carbon intensity of electricity generation global average gCO2 / kWh
-10%
International variation in carbon intensity of electricity generation
low carbon power (LCP) scenario June 2019
gCO2/ kWh
BP Energy Outlook 2019 edition
% of rail track electrified
Railways –the most electrified freight transport mode
half of freight moved on the rail network is in electrically-hauled trains (IEA 2019)
use of batteries and hydrogen fuel cells in freight locomotives to increase
% of rail freight electrically-hauled
Source: IEA (2019) Future of Rail
Hydrogen as the energy carrier of low carbon
electricity long distance trucking
disagreement on weight, size recharging time for batteries
10-12 tonnes for US Class 8 truck
400 kW per hour charging time 4-6 tonnes for US Class 8 truck 1600 kW per hour (Tesla) Sripad & Visvanathan, McKinsey etc Tesla, ETC* etc
battery power
energy losses so high never likely to be viable option
Bossel, Cebon etc IDDRI, ETC* etc
despite high energy losses, still viable decarbonisation option
3rdoption: electrify the road network hydrogen fuel-cell truck
* Energy Transition Commission
BDI / Boston Consulting Group / Prognos study:
Recommends that 4000-8000 km of German autobahn network be electrified (out of 13000 km) Highway electrification: the e-Highway
60% of heavy truck CO2emissions in Germany occur on only 2% of
road network 89% of truck trips after leaving highway have a length of 50km or
less.
Source: Siemens
ITF /OECD (2018) expert survey
Logistics will have to compete with other sectors for zero carbon electricity
Total electricity demand will increase 60% by 2040
Main increase in developing countries: ‐ population growth of 1.55 billion by 2040
‐ doubling of average income by 2040
‘New policies scenario’
electric cars increase from 3 million today to
300 million by 2040
switch from fossil fuel heating to electric heating in homes increases domestic electricity
demand by 45% by 2040 critical dependence of zero-carbon logistics scenario on expansion and transformation of electricity generation
Can ease this dependence by also decarbonising logistics in other ways:
• switch to biofuels
• improve energy efficiency of logistics
• shift freight to lower carbon transport modes
• improve vehicle loading
Will there be enough zero carbon electricity?
Life-cycle GHG emissions relative to diesel fuel
• limited supply of sustainable biofuels
• need refuelling infrastructure for gas
• methane leakage problem
• land requirements
Source: European Federation for Transport and Environment (T&E)
Waitrose supermarket chain (UK) 83% less CO2on a WTW basis 1.2 year financial payback period
Improve Energy Efficiency in the Freight Transport Sector
vehicle technology: new build + retrofits
business practice: e.g. deceleration application of fuel economy standards:
vehicle operation:IT , training, monitoring
eco‐driver training
telematic monitoring
platooning automation
• upgraded drive-trains
• light-weighting
• low-rolling resistance tyres
• improved aerodynamics
EU: 15% less CO2by 2025 30% by 2030
Net CO2savings even after allowance made for modal shift and induced traffic
Supply chain collaboration e.g. Nestle and Pepsico in Benelux
kg CO2/ tonne of product
43.8
20.3
kg CO2/ tonne of product
source: Jacobs et al (2014)
Long term contribution of Physical Internet to logistics decarbonisation Deep decarbonisation needs greater sharing of logistics assets
Source: ALICE
Transforming EU freight modal split Average carbon intensity of freight transport modes:
gCO2/ tonne‐km
Data source: DEFRA (2017)
road
rail
inland waterway Decline in fossil fuel traffic –difficult to replace with other commodities Carbon intensity of road freight falling faster than rail freight – narrowing the gap
Phasing out fossil fuels reduces amount of coal, oil and gas to be moved Fossil fuels = 41% of maritime trade (UNCTAD, 2017)
Substitution of alternative energy sources
Constructing renewable energy infrastructure of wind turbines, solar farms and hydro‐electric dams is material‐ and transport‐intensive
necessarily minimise life cycle emissions
Circular economy:
Increase recycling and remanufacturing
Digitisation of physical products:
convert freight consignments into electrons Design products with less material:
miniaturisation, lightweighting
3D Printing:
Reduce the amount of stuff to be moved - Improve ‘material efficiency’
Share economy:
Ownership to multiple useage
Logistics Transport Focus (Oct 2018)
?
Advances in vehicle routeing and scheduling Big data, predictive analytics etc
Supply chain applications of Blockchain cloud computing, software-as-a-service
Data pooling
combined impact on road freight CO2emissions ?
platooning
electrified highways
urban freight consolidation aerodynamic profiling eco‐driver training physical internet
hydrogen fuel cells
hybridisation synchromodality
down‐speeding high capacity transport
predictive analytics
anti‐idling lightweighting
low rolling resistance smart cruise control
vehicle automation
online load matching
biofuels
vehicle telematics preventative maintenance pollution‐routeing
delivery rescheduling
supply chain collaboration battery‐powered vehicles
natural gas vehicles nominated day delivery
ease of implementation CO2 abatement potential
low high
low
high technological development operational /managerial / regulatory development
Freight decarbonisation measures: CO2abatement – implementation graphs
ease of implementation
‐ difficult to quantify potential carbon savings from logistics management options
‐ past experience discouraging: trends in empty running, vehicle load factors, modal shift etc Technology and energy supply bias: under‐estimation of the possible logistics contribution
adaptation and population resettlement
climate‐induced disruption
23
10 Conclusions
1. Logistics will be a very difficultsector to decarbonisation completely
2. Electrification with zero carbon electricity will be a major decarbonisation pathway
3. Electrification option available mainly to road and rail: little prospect of ships and aircraft being electrified by 2050
4. Electrification of surface modes will require large capital investment in overhead cabling and big improvement in battery performance
5. Need other supporting decarbonisation initiatives to reduce dependence on low carbon electricity 6. Combination of energy efficiency gains, better vehicle loading and modal shift can substantially reduce
the energy demands of logistics
7. Reductions in the carbon intensity of freight transport may be offset by increases in transport demand.
8. Some of this demand will be generated by need to adapt to climate change and capture greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere.
9. Given its critical role in maintaining human welfare and climatic adaptation, logistics may have to be exempted from zero‐carbon targets
10.Nevertheless, must maintain pressure to minimise logistics‐related emissions
e-mail: [email protected] website: www.the-klu.org
www.alanmckinnon.co.uk
@alancmckinnon
New video course available soon at KLU website
Turun kauppakorkeakoulu Turku School of Economics
SUPPLY CHAIN PERSPECTIVE ON COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES AND GREEN SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
LIMCO breakfast seminar, Oslo, 11.12.2019 Professor Lauri Ojala