Testing the Transparency Benefits of Inflation Targeting: Evidence from Private Sector Forecasts

The objective is for interest rate expectations to be consistent with economic developments where inflation is on target over time and output is stable around its potential

We advise that econometric inflation forecasting should be based on a core wage-price model, grafted into a wider set of equations that capture the important transmission

We evaluate forecasts of GDP growth and inflation made by the system of aver- aging models (SAM) and compare their performance with Norges Bank’s forecasts in the Monetary

Concerning the yearly forecasts, 1973 was a year of relatively good forecasts, while 1974 was an year of high inaccuracy for the Norwegian forecasters (na- mely due to

We observe from Figure 9 (b) that the aggre- gated forecasts produced by the Model ST+T are better in terms of calibration than the forecasts from the other models, which is

In the classical BMA approach for postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, a probability density function is associated with each individual ensemble member forecast, and a sliding

A model where thin plate regression splines have been used to incorporate forecast wind direction, DIRBMA, specified in Section 4.4, is fitted to fore- casts with lead time l = 72 h

Figure 12 presents an example from the event of 13 August 2007 where differential motion of convective features has resulted in erroneous forecasts at longer lead times.. It can be