Predicting Developmental Outcomes: Is it the Child or the Environment?

(1)

Predicting Developmental Outcomes:

Is it the Child or the Environment?

Oslo—November, 2010

Arnold Sameroff

[email protected]

(2)

Y X

Adult Success Infancy

NATURE ?

NURTURE

(3)

(4)

(5)

Biomedical Risk & Psychological Outcome

Risk

ICH (Grade IV) EEG/Seizures

Neurological Signs

Cerebral Palsy @ 1 yr.

Down Syndrome

Normal Outcomes

25%

33%

Most

50% @ 7 years Some

(6)

Newborn Biological

Condition

Normal High Risk

Impaired

Childhood Behavioral

Outcomes

Normal Delayed Disabled

(7)

Newborn Biological

Condition

Normal High Risk

Impaired

Childhood Behavioral

Outcomes

Convergent Development

(Equifinality) Divergent

Development (Multifinality)

(8)

Newborn Biological

Condition

Normal High Risk

Impaired

Childhood Behavioral

Outcomes

Convergent Development

(Equifinality) Divergent

Development (Multifinality)

(9)

Four Requirements for a

Unified Theory of Development

1. Personal Change Model 2. Contextual Model

3. Regulation Model

4. Representational Model

(10)

1. Personal Change Model

INFANCY

ADOLESCENCE

ADULTHOOD

TIME

DEVELOPMENT

CHILDHOOD

INFANCY CHILDHOOD ADOLESCENCE ADULTHOOD

Development

(11)

Requirements for a

Unified Theory of Development

1. Personal Change Model

2. Contextual Model

(12)

2. Contextual Model

GEOPOLITICAL

COMMUNITY FAMILY

PEERS PARENT

SCHOOL

(13)

Philadelphia

Adolescent Development Study

.

Frank Furstenburg, Thomas Cook, Jacque Eccles, Glen Elder, & Todd Bartko

• 500 11- to 14-year olds

• Urban Setting

• Multiple Outcomes

• Multiple Contextual Factors

(14)

20 Dichotomized Contextual Risk Factors

Proximal

• Parent-Child Interaction

• Parent Personality

• Family Structure & Economy

• Family Management

• Peers

• School

• Community Distal

(15)

Parent-Child Interaction

Support for Autonomy Control of Behavior

Family Emotional Climate

Parent Characteristics

Education

Sense of Efficacy

Problem Solving Ability Mental Health

Family Structure & Economy

Marital Status

Household Crowding Income Level

Welfare Status

(16)

Family Management

Investment in Promoting Child Community Involvement

Availability of Social Support Stressful Life Events

Peers

Contact with Prosocial Peers Contact with Antisocial Peers

Community

Neighborhood Resources Neighborhood Problems School Quality

(17)

Mental Health Self-Competence Problem Behavior Activity Involvement Academic Performance Self-Competence

Problem Behavior Activity Involvement Academic Performance Self-

Problem Behavior Activity Involvement Academic Performance Self

Problem Behavior Activity Involvement Academic Performance

(18)

-0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Risk Factors

Competence

Mental Health Self-Competence Problem Behavior Activity Involvement Academic Performance

-0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Risk Factors

Competence

Self-Competence Problem Behavior Activity Involvement Academic Performance Self-Competence

Problem Behavior Activity Involvement Academic Performance Self-Competence

(19)

Requirements for a

Unified Theory of Development

3. Regulation Model

(20)

3. Regulation Model

Development

Other-Regulation Self-Regulation

(21)

Developmental Regulation

Self

Physiological Emotional

Behavioral Attentional

Others

Parenting Schooling Medicine

Legal System

(22)

Parent Behavior (Other)

Child Behavior (Self)

P₁

C₁

P₂

C₂

P₃

C₃

P₄

C₄

Transactional Model

(23)

Parent Behavior (Other)

Child Behavior (Self)

P₁

C₁

P₂

C₂

P₃

C₃

P₄

C₄

Transactional Model

(24)

Birth Complications

Poor Language/

Social Skills

Parent

Child

time

Transactional Model of Development

(25)

Birth Complications

Poor

Self-Regulation/

Difficult Temperament

Poor Language/

Social Skills Anxious

Handling Disengagement

Parent

Child

time

Transactional Model of Development

(26)

(27)

Transactional Regulation Model

Development

Other-Regulation Self-Regulation

(28)

Requirements for a

Unified Theory of Development

4. Representational Model

(29)

4. Representational Model

REPRESENTATION

REALITY

(30)

Representations are Not Reality But the Interpretation of Reality

 Cognitive Representations

 Putting external world inside

 Social Representations

 Working Models

 Cultural Representations

 Ethnicity/Ethnotheories

 Social Class

 Developmental Theories

(31)

Parent Representation

(Cultural Representation)

Parent Behavior

Child Behavior

Child Representation

(Cultural Representation)

rP₁ rP₂ rP₃ rP₄

P₁

rC₁ C₁

P₂

C₂

rC₂

P₃

C₃

rC₃

P₄

C₄

rC₄

(32)

Infant Temperament Project

Ronald Seifer, Lisa Barrett, & Elizabeth Krafchuk

 120 mothers

 Videotape 10 Minute Interaction

 Mother & Own Infant

 6 Unfamiliar Mothers & Infants

 Ratings using same Temperament Scale

 Mother rates Own Infant

 Mother rates 6 Unfamiliar Infants

 Trained Observer Rates all Infants

(33)

Mother-Observer Correlations Own Infants

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

FREQUENCY

-0.30 -0.10 0.10 0.30 0.50 0.70 0.90

Correlation

Own Child

Seifer, Sameroff, Barrett, L.C., & Krafchuk, E. (1994)

(34)

Mother-Observer Correlations Unfamiliar Infants

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

FREQUENCY

-0.30 -0.10 0.10 0.30 0.50 0.70 0.90 Correlation

Unfamiliar Child

Seifer, Sameroff, Barrett, L.C., & Krafchuk, E. (1994)

(35)

Michigan Family Study

Susan McDonough, Michael MacKenzie, Kate Rosenblum

.

Mother Perceptions and Infant Crying

 200 Mothers and Infants

 7 months

 Assess Amount of Infant Crying

 Assess Mother’s Judgment of Problem

 15 months

 Assess Amount of Infant Crying

 33 months

 Assess Infant Mental Health (CBCL)

(36)

7-month Mother’s Rating of Crying Problems and

7-month Infant Daily Crying Time

0 10 20 30 40 50

No Yes No Yes

Daily Crying (Minutes)

No Problem Problem

7-Month Rating

7-Months 15-Months

(37)

7 and 15-month Infant Daily Crying Time

0 10 20 30 40 50

No Yes No Yes

Daily Crying (Minutes)

7-Month Rating

7-Months 15-Months

(38)

33-month Child Behavior Check List Score

16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34

No Yes

33m CBCL Total Score

7-Month Rating

(39)

Putting the Pieces Together

Unifying a Theory of Development

(40)

Start with Structural Model:

What are all the pieces?

PERSON/Phenotype

(41)

P sycho logical System

Mental Health Social Competence

Communication Cognition

CHILD CHILD

PSYCHOLOGY

(42)

Bio p sycho logical System

PSYCHOLOGY Mental Health Social Competence

Communication Cognition

CHILD CHILD

BIOLOGY Epigenomics

Proteomics Neurophysiology

Health Gender

(43)

Bio psychoSocial Ecological System

GEOPOLITICAL

SCHOOL

Communication Cognition PSYCHOLOGY

(44)

T 1

GEOPOLITICAL

COMMUNITY

FAMILY

Adding Time Dimension

PARENT

T 2

T 3

T n

Context

Child ^CHILD

(45)

Adding Personal Change Model

Continuous

TIME

GROWTH

(46)

Biopsychosocial Continuity Model

OTHER

(47)

Adding Personal Change Model

Discontinuous

DEVELOPMENT

TIME

(48)

Biopsychosocial Discontinuity Model

SELF SELF

OTHER

(49)

Cascades

(Masten, 2005)

Multiple individual and contextual factors amplifying

snowballing transacting cascading

Producing progressive processes that would explain spreading or diffusing effects over time.

(50)

(51)

Transformative Cascade of Developmental Experiences

Individual

Neuromotor Capacity Language

Reading

Context

Language Community Literate Community Scientific Community

(52)

Transformative

Remedial Experiences

Individual

Physical Handicap Learning Disability Contextual Disability

Context

Prostheses

Perceptual/Motor Strategies Societal Reform

(53)

Dynamic Cascade Model of the Development of Substance Use Onset

. (DODGE, MALONE, LANSFORD,

MILLER, PETTIT, AND BATES, 2009)

Adolescent Peer Problems

Initiation Of Illicit Substance

Use

(54)

Dynamic Cascade Model of the Development of Substance Use Onset

.

Adolescent Parenting Problems

Use

(55)

Dynamic Cascade Model of the Development of Substance Use Onset

.

Early Peer Problems

Use

(56)

Dynamic Cascade Model of the Development of Substance Use Onset

.

Early Behavior Problems

Early Peer Problems

Use

(57)

Dynamic Cascade Model of the Development of Substance Use Onset

.

Early Parenting Problems

Early Peer Problems

Use

(58)

Dynamic Cascade Model of the Development of Substance Use Onset

.

^Difficult_Child

Factors

Adverse Sociocultural

Context

Early Peer Problems

Use

(59)

Parsimonious Model of the Development of Onset

of Substance Use

.

^Difficult_Child

Factors

Adverse Sociocultural

Context

Early Peer Problems

Use

.08

.54*** .34***

.39***

.10*

.12* .47***

.47***

.34***

(60)

Y X

Successful Adulthood Babies

?

(61)

(62)

Bio psychoSocial Ecological System

GEOPOLITICAL

SCHOOL

Communication Cognition PSYCHOLOGY

(63)

Biopsychosocial Discontinuity Model

SELF SELF

OTHER

(64)

Rochester Longitudinal Study

• N~250 Families

• Data Waves

– Infancy (Birth-1 yr.)

– Preschool (2-1/2 – 4 yrs.)

– Adolescence (13 - 18 yrs.)

– Adulthood (30 yrs.)

(65)

Social Risk Factors

• Child - Parent

• Parent

• Family

• Social

Poor Parent–Child Interaction Little Developmental Knowledge Parent Psychiatric History

Parent Anxiety Little Education

Low HH Occupational Status Large Family Size

Single Parent

Stressful Life Events Minority Status

(66)

44--YearYear .72 IQ

IQ 1313--YearYear .72 1818--YearYear

44--YearYear .45 MH

MH 1313--YearYear .40 1818--YearYear

Longitudinal Correlations for

IQ and Mental Health ^(MH)

(67)

44--YearYear .72 IQ

IQ 1313--YearYear .72 1818--YearYear

44--YearYear .77 RISK

RISK 1313--YearYear .80 1818--YearYear

Longitudinal Correlations for IQ and Social Risk

-.59 -.61 -.47

(68)

Can Individual Competence

Overcome Social Risks?

(69)

Infant Competence

• Obstetrical Problems (ROS)

• Newborn Pediatric Problems (ROS)

• Newborn Behavioral Scores (NBAS)

• 4-Month Temperament (Carey)

• 4-Month Development Scores (Bayley)

• 12-Month Development Scores (Bayley)

(70)

3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2

Low Moderate High Early Social Risk

4-Year M. H.

High Low

Infant Competence

Infant Competence

Predicting to 4-Year Mental Health

(71)

3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2

Low Moderate High Early Social Risk

4-Year M. H.

High Low

Infant Competence

Infant Competence

(72)

4-Year Mental Health

50 60 70 80 90

Low Moderate High

4-Year Social Risk

High MH Low MH

4-Year

(73)

60 70 80 90

Low Moderate High 13-Year Social Risk

High Low

13-Year (Y) Mental Health

(74)

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

School Year

Grade Point Average

Low Risk, High IQ High Risk, Low IQ

Grade Point Average Trajectories

For High and Low 4-Year IQ Groups

(75)

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

School Year

Grade Point Average

Low Risk, High IQ

High Risk, High IQ High Risk, Low IQ

(76)

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

School Year

Grade Point Average

Low Risk, High IQ Low Risk, Low IQ High Risk, High IQ High Risk, Low IQ

(77)

Adulthood

(78)

65 75 85

0 1 2 3 4+

4-Year Social Risk

Predicting to 30-Year Mental Health (GAF)

Good Functioning

(79)

10 12 14 16

0 1 2 3 4+

4-Year Social Risk

30-Yr Education (Yrs.)

4-Year Social Risk

Predicting to 30-Year Educational Attainment

BA

HS

(80)

10 12 14 16 18

0 1 2 3 4+

30-Year Education High

18-Year IQ Low

18-Year IQ

Predicting to 30-Year Educational Attainment

(81)

Predicting to 30-Year Mental Health (PIRS)

18-Year MH

2 3 4

0 1 2 3 4+

30-Yr. Mental Health

High Low

(82)

How can we help children

overcome environmental risk?

(83)

Effects of Adolescent Resourcefulness

High Low

(84)

Effects of Adolescent Resourcefulness

High Low

Psychological Adjustment Problem Behavior Academic Performance

Multiple Risk

HIGH MED

LOW

1.0 .8 .6 .4 .2 .0 -.2 -.4 -.6 -.8 -1.0

Multiple Risk

HIGH MED

LOW

1.0

.5

0.0

-.5

-1.0

Multiple Risk

HIGH MED

LOW

1.0

.5

0.0

-.5

-1.0

Lines indicate means and 95% confidence intervals

(85)

Political Strategies for Social Intervention

Conservatives---Preserve the Family

Liberals---Eliminate Poverty

(86)

Psychological Adjustment

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Low (0-2) Moderate (3-5) High (6+)

Multiple Risk

Standardized means

Problem Behavior

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Multiple Risk

Academic Performance

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Multiple Risk

Family Structure

Single Parent Two Parents

(87)

Psychological Adjustment

-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Multiple Risk

Standardized means

Problem Behavior

-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Multiple Risk

Academic Performance

-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Multiple Risk

Income Level

Below Poverty Level

1 to 2 Times Poverty Level

> 2 Times Poverty Level

(88)

If single factors (money, parents) don’t increase child competence,

What about multiple factors?

(89)

20 Dichotomized Contextual Promotive Factors

Proximal

• Parent-Child Interaction

• Parent Personality

• Family Structure & Economy

• Family Management

• Peers

• School

• Community Distal

(90)

-0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+

Promotive Factors

Competence

Mental Health Self-Competence Problem Behavior Activity Involvement Academic Performance

-0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+

Competence

Self-Competence Problem Behavior Activity Involvement Academic Performance Self-Competence

Problem Behavior Activity Involvement Academic Performance Self-Competence

(91)

H.M.S. Titanic

(92)

Fatality Rate for Women on the Titanic

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1st Class 2nd Class 3rd Class

(93)

Question:

Can child competence

overcome environmental adversity ?

Answer:

Unfortunately, not for most children

most of the time!

(94)

Question:

How can children

overcome environmental adversity ?

Answer:

By getting rid of

environmental adversity!

(95)