Part 2 (10.18Mb)

(1)

,,,*1-;International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

PART2

REPORT OF THE MUL TISPEC/ES ASSESSMENT WORKING GROUP

Woods Hole, 4-13 December, 1990

This document is a report of a Working Group of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea and does not necessarily represent the views of the Council. Therefore, it should not be quoted without consultation with the General Secretary.

*

General Secretary ICES

Pal~gade 2-4

DK-1261 Copenhagen K DENMARK

(2)

(3)

...-....

(/)

0 0 .._... 0 (/)

w

z z

0

1-

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

./P ... .

.8.. / 0 0 0 0 0 \

o··· ····... ... .... ...

<:5 ·o···

.· Q

... o...

TSB SSVPA

--"*---

SSB SSVPA

// · .. 0. 0 . 0

c) ^{o .}

--~-- ----------.L __

Jt.._ ----.&------·- -- --·---.&- -- ___ .,._

* -- ^*---

^{>k- -}

-* ----.---·----

-.t.- ----.. -----i:c_ :c_ ,._,.,._ ,._

~· ~-~-~-~-~- *- ~-~-...

73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 Y~R

Figure 2. 7.1 a. The total stock biomass (fSB) and spawning stock biomass (SSB) of cod from the MSVPA and the SSVPA.

1--"l (.}1 (.}1

(4)

2,500

2,000

...

(/)

0

0 1,500

..._... 0

(/)

w

z

^1,000

0 z

...

500

0

./i./\

HADDOCK STOCK _SIZE

Q

...

-~o···o·~···d

0

i''\\\.\0

---•---- SSB MSVPA

... o...

TSB SSVPA

--+--

SSB SSVPA

73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90

YEAR

Figure 2. 7.1 b. The total stock biomass (fSB) and spawning stock biomass (SSB) of haddock from the MSVPA and the SSVPA.

(5)

..-...

en

0 0 ..__... 0

en w z z

0

1-

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

A

o···o ... o

!/ \\\

... 0... TSB SSVPA

--+--

^{SSB SSVPA}

.0 ...

0 / / /

o.

·.. 0.

0. . ...

ii<j)

', ~~"-----~ ^{o o} o'

*"

...A---·---4.._ ' ,

·-. _.a---^~ _-A-.--- .

----·· ... *

-- ..

-. ----~

^{~-- -~--}

-*--

^->f--^:it;;---... ..A

· - - · --- A----.A-.---_A---

·.JA'

73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90

YEAR

Figure 2. 7.1 c. The total stock biomass (TSB) and spawning stock biomass (SSB) of whiting from the MSVPA and the SSVPA.

...

()"1 -...,J

(6)

...

Cl)

0 0 ..._.. 0

Cl)

w

z z ... 0

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

o ... o

....

··::-.'>k:

'.A>

'\..

SAITHE STOCK SIZE

... o···o ...

···o···o-... o/

_o·---0

---A---- SSB MSVPA

···0···.. TSB SSVPA

--*--

SSB SSVPA

.... o

"·-· _{,} *-·..::::-.... ---·- ----... .: -.:.-.,. _ .,. ~--~---~

:::1.:-_-, _...,_- _

- _._--..A. ... ~~~~.:~-~--~

--·---..to.:.:-.: '-'l" - -

_,4----:.r: ....

73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90

YEAR

Figure 2.7.1d. The total stock biomass (TSB) and spawning stock biomass (SSB) of saithe from the MSVPA and the SSVPA.

(7)

4,000

...-...

(j) 3,000

0 0

..__... 0 Cl)

w

z

^2,000

z 0

...

1,000

0

···0···· .. ·· TSB SSVPA

HERRING STOCK SIZE

.P···o ^{ -* _}

SSB SSVPA

/./.~

···o···.o

.. ···

0 .o·

... o···

.o

0 ...

..o

··o.

·· ..

73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90

YEAR

Figure 2.7.1 e. The total stock biomass (TSB) and spawning stock biomass (SSB) of herring from the MSVPA and the SSVPA.

...

CJ1 1..0

(8)

2,500

2,000

...

Cl) 0

0 1500

0 ' ....__., Cl)

w

z

^1,000

0 z

1-

500

0

NORWAY POUT STOCK SIZE

• TSB MSVPA

---.6---- SSB MSVPA

···0··· TSB SSVPA

---*---

SSB SSVPA

•• ••

⁰

·. . . k! __ '. --: .• ::,,_ ·_

/;::;~ :~:!~~::~ ... "' ... ··6··.... . .. " .

^.&

.. n.'---.&

~

^' ^-.,a;.. ^... ^'

o ... o··· ·· ....

.a ....

o

0

-/* ',,~/.,.. '--=-----·:::~:::-.::.-

*-

-~--

•••

73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90

YEAR

Figure 2.7.1f. The total stock biomass {TSB) and spawning stock biomass (SSB) of Norway pout from the MSVPA and the SSVPA.

(9)

4,000 3,500 ... 3,000

en

0 0 2,500

0 .

....__....

en ^2,ooo

z w 0 z

I-

1,500 1,000 500 0

· ··· ·0·· .. ···· TSB SSVPA

-- -*---

^{SSB SSVPA}

.... 0 /0 /0 0

o\j .... / ^y... ^... v .... ·.. / ._._

^e::

0::<-...:_:::~:__ ^{\ //} ^\... ^\

^! ^;

~...,,

, ·.. ; I \

, . , , A. ·.0 ./ ^A ^I ^\

*

;A---·--- ---- ^A"· ^I ^\

-.~.o

" - - - - - - ! . - - -

*--

^-A..^- ^- ^A, ^.;^,, ^<. ^'- ^r

~

^., ^I^I ^\^\

-'~"-- .,._ --'"" - ^{- ----•} ~:-

^-'

^{.; '-}

^)l·''

^,--

^-,. ^I^I ^\

.:: :.: '1{1._, "·

'-i.

⁾¹¹

73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90

YEAR

Figure 2.7.1 g. The total stock biomass (fSB) and spawning stock biomass (SSB) of sandeel from the MSVPA and the SSVPA.

...

CJ)

...

(10)

Reloti\;e Sensit!vities

MSVPA Responses to MSVPA Parameters

••

•• •• _••

. . . .l . •• •• _••

•••

Figure 2.8.3.1. Relative sensitivities of MSVPA responses to MSVPA parameters. Sensitivities are expressed as the percent change in the response variable (% of mean) caused by a 10%

change in the parameter. MSVPA parameters are listed in Table 2.8.1.1 (#1-#33). Response variables are: (1) TOTAL BIOMASS of all MSVPA species in 1974, (2) TOTAL BIOMASS of all MSVPA species in 1989, (3) average F for age 1 cod, (4) average population

numbers (N) for age 1 cod, (5) average predation deaths (D) for age 1 cod, and (6) average M2 for age 1 cod.

(11)

(f)

w

z z

0

1- 0

z

~

:J

0 :r:

1-

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

MEAN BIOMASS, YIELD AND PREDATION ALL MSVPA SPECIES

··· ...

---

·. ^··^...

-AVERAGE BIOMASS ----·YIELD

... PREDATION

... ,

··

... ..

'---~~~-~~~~;---, ··· ... ^...^,.. 'to#,. ^,~~

---

•. •· ^•'

···

....

··· .··

74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89

YEAR

Figure 3.1.1 Trends in mean total biomass, yield and predation (in thousands of tonnes) for all MSVPA species considered,

1974-1989.

(12)

(/)

w

z z ... 0

0

z

<(

(/)

:::>

0

I

...

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

MEAN BIOMASS OF MSVPA PREDATORS

-COD - WHITING

0 SAITHE [ill]] MACKEREL

D

HADDOCK

74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89

YEAR

Figure 3.1.2 Trends in mean total biomass (thousands of tonnes) of MSVPA predator species, 197 4-1989.

(13)

8000

en w ₆₀₀₀ z z

0

I-

0

4000

z

<(

en :::>

0

_J:

2000

I-

0

HERRING SPRAT

0 NORWAYPOUT

0 SANDEEL

74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89

YEAR

Figure 3.1.3 Trends in mean total biomass (thousands of tonnes) of

MSVPA prey species, 1974-1989. ^m^...

c..:n

(14)

Cl)

~

9

fa

a::

-4 +

-5 +

-6 +

-7 +

-8 +

a

A A

8 8

HERRING IN SUB DIVISIONS 25-27

8 AA A AA A A

8 AB A FFEEICACBA A 8 AEFKKJECDBC AAAAAC CJHHEGEFC 8 AA A

IECED A A

BEFABC AFDCA BCBC CCCA CBA D A AA B ABA

c

AAA CA

---+---+---+---+---+---+--

-2 0 2 4 6 8

LOG WEIGHT RATIO

4

+

b

^A

.,;;.

+

A A

2 +

A

A A

A

A A AA A AB c A

1

+

A A A AA A AAA AA A

8 A AAA AAB ABAABB AAA A A A A AAAA CAABDDBDCBBB A A A A 8 A 8 DBAB CBBA A AAA

A A AA ABAA AAB 8 BAAA B A

0

+

A A B A A BAD ABABABAA BA A A A

A A A A A CBBD B CBB A A AA

AA A BA A A ACADECAAA A AA

A A D BBAA ABBABC ^A

A BA A BA 8 A A

-1

+

A A AA A A A A AA

AAA A A A

I .

A

I

A A A A AA

A A B

-2

+

^A ^A

A A

-3

+

^A

-4 + A

---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--

-1 0 2 3 4 5 6 7

LOG WEIGHT RATIO

Figures 3.2.l.a,b. Plot of predicted suitabilities (SMOOTH) vs.

log weight ratio (Wp~/WP~; a) and residuals (b) for Baltic herring in Sub Divisions 25-27 as prey for cod.

(15)

Cl)

~

9

f2

ex:

-4. o.) +

-4.5 +

-5.0 +

-5.5 +

c

BABEAABAABA A A

DA8A AA8D A

8AC EDFFCEAABBBBCBB A

AAA BbrCA A8A A

DACBDB CBDBBEABCABBA BA

ARAB LB 8Ac8 B C A AA

AA BD ABO B A

BA BB AHA A

F ABA ^A

A CB AA AA A

A C BB BA A A C A AAA A AA B A A A

AA A A

A

A A

A A A A A

AAA

-6.0 + A

-6.5 + A A

--+---+---+---+---+---+---+--

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

LOG WEIGHT RA T/0

3 +

d

A 2 +

A A

AB AA BA A A A A A A AA AA A A BA A A B A

1 + A A A A AB CAAB

A A AAA AA AA A A AA B A A A A

A AA AA A B AAA CAAA A A AA AA

A A B AA AB CBBCABCCBAGABABABA AA AA A 0 + A A A BABB CEBBDCABABA AA B AAAA A AA

A A A A A ACA AAABA AB ABBAA AB AA A A A A A A AAA A A B B BABA AAA AC AA C

A AA B A A

-1

+

A A A A A A A

A A .A A

A A A A

A A A A A A A

-2 + A A

A A

A

-3 + A

A A

A -4

+

A A

-5

+

A

-6

+

---+---+---+---+---t---+---+--

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

LOG WEIGHT RATIO

Figures 3.2.l.c,d. Plot of predicted suitabilities (SMOOTH) vs.

log weight ratio (Wp~/Wp~i c) and residuals (d) for Baltic herring in Sub Divisions 28-29s as prey for cod.

(16)

Cl)

~

9

ra

a:

-4 +

-5 +

-6 +

-7 +

A A AA AB AA CA A

SPRAT IN SUB DIVISION 25

D

B A

BBAAEAECC AAA CECDGDB EFA CACBCA BDIE AB

B AABACAD BKI A EB

AAA AB ADD ACAA

BE AB A CC A ABA C

E A A

A

8 AA B AA

A A

A A A

A A

A

A A

---+---+---+---+---+---+--

4 +

3 +

2 +

1

+

0

+

-1

+

-2 +

-3 +

-4 +

0 2 4 6 -a 10

f A A

A A

AA

A

A A A A A

A A

A A A

A A A 8 AA B A A

A A A A

A

LOG WEIGHT RATIO

AA A

A A A

A ACA A AAA A A A A

A A A A A

AA A AAAA A A A A

AA A A A A B A AA A A AA BA CA

B A AAA AB CAAA B A 8 A B

ABBA BA BBABA AB ABA AAB

AA 8 BBBC A A

A A C A AA A A A AAAABBA B A A A A AB BACDAB8 A

A B A BBA A A AA

AA A

A A A A A

A A AA AB A A A A

A A

A A A A

-+---+---+---+---+---+

0 2 4 6 8 10

LOG WEIGHT RATIO

Figures 3.2.1.e,f. Plot of predicted suitabilities (SMOOTH) vs.

log weight ratio (Wp~/Wp~i e) and residuals (f) for Baltic sprat in Sub Division 25 as prey for cod.

(17)

-3.0 +

-. ~ +

-4.0 +

-4.5 +

-5.0 +

-5.5 +

I I

g

A A A B

A AA

A

CAACBI>B

8 Df:.,D

~A~ BCBFL~EF F8 p CDbA DD~ ~A

~ ~HBBCU8 LKD A~

A C~ 8~~ CUA bE

AEA i-1J:l DC f;

i-1riA BRA A AAE:'· BA

C A A

AC AA A RAAA A

A AAA B

A A A B AA

AA A A

A A A

A A

A

---+---+---+---+---+--

0 2 4 6 8

LOG WEIGHT RATIO

h

..:. +

A A

A A A A

A A A A A

A A A A AA A

1 + A A A B A A AA A A

AAA AA A AA AAA A AA A A

A A A A A AA C B A AAA A

A A ABAB A AABA A A A A BAA A BB D BABA A A

A A A A D AA BA AA B B

(l + A A A AA A 8 AA BAC AAA BB A

A A C AAAA AAAA 8 AA AA A

A A A A AA A AAB A AA

A B AA A A A BAA CA A A

A AB A A AA A AA A AA B A

AA A A AA A

-1 + A A A A A A

A A A A

A

A A AA

A AA A

-2 +

A A

A A A

-3 +

I

I '

-+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

LOG WEIGHT RATIO

Figures 3.2.1.g,h. Plo~ of predicted suitabilities (SMOOTH) vs.

log weight ratio (W~/WP~; g) and residuals (h) for Baltic sprat in Sub Divisions 26+28 as prey for cod.

(18)

::e

e

Cl)

~

CXl

Cl)

§

9 ~ cc

0.18

0.16

0.14

0.12 • 0.10

0.08

0.06

a

; A

R 2 = 0.86

a 0.0004 b = 1.0358

~~ "'

.au A " .u

~~~ A 11 .. rlf'! • •

0.04 • 4;r .-1 ^{• A}•-' ^~^AAA ⁴ ,_AA ^'I ²ri

,.

),'

0.02

H At:: 3 :ilAAA~ HA

1\:J •• A .:~ 11 I l

H A~ ~ CA ~~A U J 1\.\;T A A.I.I<!'~:ICI<~~~

C'C -. 3C ~0 AADADl3 ~ t .• ':li.iJ •1.1~~"31. ' Kl\ 1~< A :?

r II!.:;A DC~C'IHA A U!IA 4A 1... • _. 1 ' ' - " .J'JAlo-'J Jll•r:· A t ' : ~"'J!~~

"

3 4 A if

u ¹⁴_A

.

^' ^{A A}

~

'' ^A ^7,

" ^~

0. 00 : • .::.~ :~-·-·---... ---+·---·---.----.... -+ --- .. ---.--- --· -------+---·---·-·---·---·---·---·--

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.00 -0.01

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15

b

4 A H

" ' ^..

4. " ₄ _{A A}

I ~

.

^I _~^A

A A

A u

illiHA ; A ~ H 1.~ "

•

-'"

1 c· o~c:~A ~~~ ' ~ ...

I HA IIC:'!O 43 AA .l I C!'llw CAA? A OS A 'lA

A4 A ^~~ A A ^AI IIIIIP'II•t!G A ~ A A I> A

•tHODHEACASS&.!. 4A~ 4U !'IA4A A I UYUiHCil=cu~ ACo\A

1 Fl':i'locn.auA !!e?.A AA AAA.

I AOCOC~AU'.!i: 1.4 eASC9AA

I ~~~ A ~ c ~~~A t:! c A AA

+ A E.\C AAA 9 A AA

A A

AA AA A AA A

A_~ A AB

AA 11

BA A

MESTRAW

-0.02 ^r ^AA^A

A

-0.03

-0.04

.

s

A

A A A

-·---·---·---·---· ---+---^{+-- ·----}

+----·--· ---·---·---· --- -·---·---·---+-

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0. 10 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15 MESTRAW

Figure 3.2.2. Observed stomach contents in odd years vs.

predicted stomach contents in even years for cod as predator in MSVPA results for the Baltic Sea. Regression results are given in plot a (above), residuals from the regression are given in plot b (below). Analyses are based on use of 'raw' rather than smoothed suitability values.

(19)

PREDAT R-C D

Qrt 1 Qrt 2

herring

cod

n.pout

Qrt 3 Qrt 4

sprat

cod

n.pout herring

Figure J.J.la. Predicted 1991 consumption of MSVPA prey fish species (in percent wet weight) by North Sea cod. Data are presented by quarter, the area of the pies is proportional to total fish consumption among the quarters.

(20)

Qrt 1

Qrt 3

PREDATOR

whiting cod

sprat

sandeel

whitin cod

WHITING

Qrt 2

Qrt 4

herring sprat

n.pout

whiting cod

Figure 3.3.1b. Predicted 1991 consumption of MSVPA prey fish species (in percent wet weight) by North Sea whiting. Data are presented by quarter, the area of the pies is proportional to total fish consumption among the quarters.

(21)

Qrt 1

Qrt 3

sandeel

PREDAT R

herring

sprat n.pout

HADD CK

Qrt 2

sandeel

Qrt 4

Figure 3.3.1c. Predicted 1991 consumption of MSVPA prey fish species (in percent wet weight) by North Sea haddock. Data are presented by quarter, the area of the pies is proportional to total fish consumption among the quarters.

(22)

PREDATOR= MACKEREL

Qrt 1 _Qrt 2

sandeel erring

sandeel

Qrt 3 _Qrt 4

n.pout

sandeel

Figure 3.3.1d. Predicted 1991 consumption of MSVPA prey fish species (in percent wet weight) by mackerel. Data are presented by quarter, the area of the pies is proportional to total fish consumption among the quarters.

(23)

PREDATOR Qrt 1

n.pout whiting

sandeel

Qrt 3

n.pout

SAlT HE Qrt 2

n.pout

Qrt 4

n.pout

herring haddock whiting sprat

Figure 3.3.1e. .Predicted 1991 consumption of MSVPA prey fish species (in percent wet weight} by saithe. Data are presented by quarter, the area of the pies is proportional to total fish

consumption among the quarters.

(24)

(;)"

::::>

0 UJ

\J...

0

Cl)

:z:

0

-

^-J_-J

-

_~

~ -J

~

-J ~

~

<"'

~

<"'

~

<"'

Sensitivity Analysis

Response of Fish Yield

•

• • •

•

Figure 4.3.3.1. Sensitivity of long-term total system yield in · value (billions of ECUs) to changes in average saithe recruitment and terminal fishing mortality rate on saithe. Results are from fractional factorial simulation experiments using the MSFOR model

(Table 4.3.3.2). Dots represent total system value calculated for each of the 128 simulation experiments in two-dimensional state space (e.g., parameters= saithe recruitment and saithe terminal F) . Slopes of the linear plane in these two dimensions are given by the sensitivity coefficients (Table 4.3.2.2).

Values are extrapolated to +/-30% of the nominal parameter values.

(25)

(;)'

::::, 0 UJ LL 0

(I) <:

0

-

^-J_-J

-

~

<-'

<t:

<-'

Sensitivity At~1olysis

r r· , ,/.

Id Response

CIT riS(l !le

@.

LU ::::,

-J

§

-J ~ ^<-'

f2

Figure 4.3.3.2. Sensitivity of long-term total system yield in value (billions of ECUs) to changes in average sandeel and Norway pout recruitment. Results are from fractional factorial

simulation experiments using the MSFOR model (Table 4.3.3.2).

Dots represent total system value calculated for each of the 128 simulation exper~ments in two-dimensional state space (e.g., parameters= sandeel recruitment and Norway pout recruitment).

Slopes of the linear plane in these two dimensions are given by the sensitivity coefficients (Table 4.3.2.2). Values are

extrapolated to +/-30% of the nominal parameter values.

(26)

SP

_·~_:V)~·~ti\ll+\/ I -...._/ I V : \.... ~·'/ !-\

/\,

^V1ⁱ ₁

(1!\/sic:

'---" ' ) '- I ' - '

-Response of Fish Yield

Ci)' ^~

::::> ^.,..-

() lU ll. 0

(f) <: _<:t

0

-

^-J_-J ^.,..-

-

@..

lU ::::>

§

-J ^0!_.,..- -J ~

~

Figure 4.3.3.3. Sensitivity of long-term total system yield in value {billions of ECUs) to changes in roundfish fleet fishing effort and Norway pout recruitment. Results are from fractional factorial simulation experiments using the MSFOR model {Table 4.3.3.2). Dots represent total system value calculated for each of the 128 simulation experiments in two-dimensional state space

{e.g., parameters= roundfish fleet fishing effort and Norway pout recruitment). Slopes of the linear plane in these two dimensions are given by the sensitivity coefficients (Table 4.3.2.2). Values are extrapolated to +/-30% of the nominal parameter values.

(27)

558 140000 130000 120000 110000 100000 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000

0

1990 2000 2010 2020

YERR

5TOCH. CORR. REC.

558-REC. RELRT I ON CON5T. REC.

2030 2040

Figure 4.4a. Results of long-term stochastic simulations with MSFOR for spawning stock biomass of cod in the North Sea.

Simulations compare three methods for incorporating recruitment into forecasts: (1) constant recruitment based on the mean

estimated from MSVPA, (2) from parametric SSB-recruitment, and (3) stochastic simulations with recruitment strength correlated among some species.

558

700000 SPECIES=HRO

600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000

0

1990 2000 2010 2020

YERR

5TOCH. CORR. REC.

558-REC. RELRT I ON CON5T. REC.

2030 2040 Figure 4.4b. Results of long-term stochastic simulations with MSFOR for spawning stock biomass of haddock in the North Sea.

simulations compare three methods for incorporating recruitment into forecasts: (1) constant recruitment based on the mean

(28)

SSB 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000

0

1990 2000

STCJCH. CQRR. REC.

SSB-REC. RELRTIQN CCJNST. REC.

2010 2020

YEAR

2030 2040

Figure 4.4c. Results of long-term stochastic simulations with MSFOR for spawning stock biomass of whiting in the North Sea.

SSB 200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000

0 1990

SPECIES=SAI

STQCH. CQRR. REC.

SSB-REC. RELRT I QN

C Cl'N 5 T • R E C •

2000 2010 2020

YEAR

2030 2040

Figure 4.4d. Results of long-term stochastic simulations with MSFOR for spawning stock biomass of saithe in the North Sea.

(29)

SSB 3000000

2000000

1000000

0

1990 2000

S TOCH. {ORR. REC.

558-REC. RELRT I ON CONS T. REC.

2010 2020 2030 YEAR

2040

Figure 4.4e. Results of long-term stochastic simulations with MSFOR for spawning stock biomass of herring in the North Sea.

estimated from MSVPA, {2) from parametric SSB-recruitment, and {3) stochastic simulations with recruitment strength correlated among some species.

558 1400000 1300000 1200000 1100000 1000000 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000

0

1990 2000

5PECIES=NOR

2010 2020 YEAR

STOCH. CORR. REC.

558-REC. RELRT I CIN CONST. REC.

2030 2040

Figure 4.4f. Results of long-term stochastic simulations with MSFOR for spawning stock biomass of Norway pout in North Sea.

estimated from MSVPA, (2) from parametric SSB-recruitment, and (3) stochastic simulations with recruitment

among some species.

(30)

70000 60000 50000 1.!0000

30000 20000 10000

0

1990 2000 2010 2020

YEAR

STOCH. CDRR. REC.

SSB-REC. RELRT I ON CONST. REC.

2030 2040 Figure 4.4g. Results of long-term stochastic simulations with MSFOR for spawning stock biomass of mackerel in the North Sea.

SSB

600000 500000 1.!00000 300000 200000 100000

0

SPECIES=SPR

1990 2000 2010 2020

YEAR

STOCH. COAR. REC.

558-REC. RELATION CDNST. REC.

2030 2040 Figure 4.4h. Results of long-term stochastic simulations with MSFOR for spawning stock biomass of sprat in the North Sea.

Simulations compare three methods for incorporating recruitment into forecasts: {1) constant recruitment based on the mean

estimated from MSVPA, {2) from parametric SSB-recruitment, and {3) stochastic simulations with recruitment strength correlated among some species.

(31)

3000000

2000000

1000000

0

1990 2000 2010 2020

I ERR

558-REC. RELAT IDN CDN5T. REC.

2030 2040

Figure 4.4i. Results of long~term stochastic simulations with MSFOR for spawning stock biomass of sand eel in the North Sea.

558 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000

0

5PECIE5=5(JL

1990 2000 2010 2020

I ERR

STDCH. CORR. REC.

558-REC. RELAT I DN C(JNST. REC.

2030 2040

Figure 4.4j. Results of long-term stochastic simulations with MSFOR for spawning stock biomass of sole in the North Sea.

(32)

SSB

500000 400000 300000 200000 100000

0

1990 2000

SPECIES=PLR

STCJCH. CCJRR. REC.

SSB-REC. RELRT I CJN CCJNST. REC.

2010 2020 2030 2040

YERR

Figure 4.4k. Results of long-term stochastic simulations with MSFOR for spawning stock biomass of plaice in the North Sea.

(33)

BIDMASS

1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700

79 81 83 85

I EAR

87 89 91

Figure 5.1.1.1. Cod biomass ('OOOtons) in the Barent Sea for the years 1979-90.

CAPELIN

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

79 81 83 85

I EAR

87 89 9 1

Figure 5.1.1.2. Capelin biomass ('OOOtons) in the Barents Sea for the years 1979-90.

(34)

TEMP

4.6 4.l.J:

4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.l.J:

3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0

79 80 81 Figure 5.1.1.3.

period 1979-89.

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90

YEAR

Temperature (oC) in the Barents Sea for the

LENGTH

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90

YEAR

Figure 5.1.1.4. Cohort growth in the Barents Sea in terms of length at year.

(35)

BA RENTS EA

LENGTH 100

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

3 4 5 6 7 8

AGE

Figure 5.1.1.5. Cohort growth in the Barents Sea in terms of length at age.

DELTA 19 18 1 7 16 15 14 13 12 1 1 10

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1

3 4 5 6 7 8

AGE

Figure 5.1.1.6. Length increment (delta) ^bycohort at each age for the Barents Sea.

(36)

DELTA 19 18

1 7

16 15 14 13 12

1 1

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 - 1

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 YEAR

Figure 5.1.1.7. Length increment (delta) by cohort at each year for the Barents Sea.

LENGTH

51 ₊

50 +

49 ⁺

48

47 ₊ ⁺

46 ⁺ AGE= 4YEARS

45 +

44 43 42

41 +

+ +

40 ₊

39 38

37 +

700 900 1100 1300 1500

BICJMASS

Figure 5.1.1.8. Length at age 4 against cod biomass for the Barents Sea.

(37)

BARENTSSEA

LENGTH

51 ₊

50 ⁺

49 ⁺ AGE= 4YEARS

48

47 ⁺ ₊

46 ⁺

45 ₊

44 43 42 41 ⁺

+ +

40 ⁺

39 38 37

0 1000 2000 3000 4000

CRPELIN

Figure 5.1.1.9. Length at age 4 against capelin biomass for the Barents Sea.

LENGTH

51 ₊

50 ⁺

49 +

48 AGE= 4YEARS

47 ₊

46 ⁺

45 ₊

44 43 42

41 ⁺

+ +

40 +

39 38 37

2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 TEMP

Figure 5.1.1.10. Length at age 4 against temperature for the Barents Sea.

(38)

LENGTH 63 62 6 1 60 59 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47

46 +

700

Figure 5.1.1.11.

Barents Sea.

LENGTH 63 62 61

+

60 +

59 58 57 56 + 55

54 +

53 52 51 50 49

48 +

47 46

0

BARENTSSEA

AGE == 5 YEARS +

+ +

+ + +

900 1100 1300 1500

BICJMRSS

Length at age 5 against cod biomass for the

+

AGE • 5YEARS +

+ + + +

+

1000 2000 3000 4000

CRPELIN

Figure 5.1.1.12. Length at age 5 against capelin biomass for the Barents Sea.

(39)

LENGTH

63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46

2.0

BARENTSSEA

AGE == 5 YEARS

+ +

2.5 3.0

+

3.5 TEMP

+ +

+

+ +

4.0 4.5 5.0

Figure 5.1.1.13. Length at age 5 against temperature for the Barents Sea.

(40)

BICJMASS 700000

600000

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

0

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90

I EAR

Figure 5.1.2.1. Cod biomass timeseries (tons) 1976-89 from VPA estimates in Subarea 1.

TEMP

2.2 2. 1 2.0 1. 9 1. 8 1. 7 1. 6 1. 5 1. 4 1. 3 1 • 2 1 . 1 1 . 0 0.9 0.8 0. 7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0. 1 0.0

76 ₇₈ 80 82 84 86 88

I EAR

Figure 5.1.2.2. Annual mean surface temperature on Fylla Bank (64'N) for the period 1976-89.

90

(41)

spring

LENGTH 90

80

70

GO

50

40

76 78 80 82 84 86 88

YERR

Figure 5.1.2.3. Cohort growth in terms of length at year in spring.

LENGTH 90

80

70

60

50

---

80 8 1 82

autumn

83 84 85 86 87 88

YERR

Figure 5.1.2.4. Cohort growth in terms of length at year in autumn.

90

89

(42)

LENGTH 90

80

70

GO

50

40 5

WEST GREENLAND spring

6 7

AGE

Figure 5.1.2.5. Cohort growth in terms of length at age in spring.

LENGTH 90

80

70

GO

50

5

autumn

6 7

AGE

Figure 5.1.2.6. Cohort growth in terms of length at age in autumn.

8

(43)

DELTA

16 ¹¹

spr1ng

1 5 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90

!ERR

Figure 5.1.2.7. Length increment (delta) by cohort at each year in spring.

DELTA

9

8

autumn

7 6

5

3 2

0

- 1

80 8 1 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89

!ERR

Figure 5.1.2.8. Length increment (delta) by cohort at each year in autumn.

(44)

LENGTH GlJ G3 G2 Gl GO 59 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47

WEST GREENLAND, _spring

+

+ +

0.0 0.5 1 ⁰ 0

TEMP

AGE == 5 YEARS +

+

1 . 5

+ +

+

2.0 2.5

Figure 5.1.2.9. Length at age 5 in spring against temperature.

LENGTH GlJ

G3 +

G2 AGE == 5 YEARS

G1

GO ₊

59

58 + +

57 ⁺

56 + +

55 ₊

54 + 53

52 ₊

51 ₊

50 + + +

49

48 +

47

0 200000 400000 GOOOOO 800000

BICJMRSS

Fig. 5.1.2.10 Length at age 5 in spring against biornass.

(45)

LENGTH 6L±

63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 5L±

53 52 51

Figure 5.1.2.11.

LENGTH 6L±

63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 5L±

53 52 51

AGE == 5 YEARS

+ +

+

0.0 0.5 1. 0

Length at age 5

+

0 200000

+

1 . 5 TEMP

in autumn

L±OOOOO BiaMRSS

+ + +

+

2.0 2.5

against temperature.

AGE == 5 YEARS

+

+ +

600000 800000

Figure 5.1.2.12. Length at age 5 in autumn against biomass.

(46)

Iceland N area

BIDMASS 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900

76 78 80 82 84 86 88

YEAR

Figure 5.1.3.1. Cod biomass ('OOOtons) off NE Iceland for the years 1977-90.

CAPELINW 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.21 0120 0. 19 0 ^I 18 0. 1 7 0. 16 0. 15 0. 14 0. 13 0. 12

0 ^I 11 0 ^I 10

0109 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04

76 78 80 82 84 86 88

YEAR

90

90 Figure 5.1.3.2. Capelin biomass index off NE Iceland for the years 1979-89.

(47)

TEMP 0.49 0.47 0.45 0.43 0.41 0.39 0.37 0.35 0.33 0.31 0.29 0.27 0.25 0.23 0.21 0. 19 0. 17

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90

YEAR

Figure 5.1.3.3. Temperature deviations off NE Iceland for the period 1976-90.

LENGTH

100

Commercial trawl

90

80

70

60

50

40

60 70 80 90

YEAR

Figure 5.1.3.4. Cohort growth off NE Iceland in terms of length at year.

(48)

Iceland NE area, Commercial trawl

LENGTH 11 0 100 90 80 70 GO

50 40

4

s

6 7 8 9

AGE

Figure 5.1.3.5. Cohort growth off NE Iceland in terms of length at age.

DELTA

20

1 0

0

-10

-20

4

s

6 7 8

AGE

Figure 5.1.3.6. Length increment (delta) by cohort at each age for NE Iceland.

9

Part 2 (10.18Mb)

*

w

z z

0

./P ... .

o··· ····... ... .... ...

<:5 ·o···

... o...

--"*---

c) o .

*--~-- ---*---*--*--.L __

* -- *---

-* ----.---·----

~· ~-~-~-~-~- *- ~-~-...

w

z

0 z

...

./i./\

HADDOCK STOCK SIZE

-~o···o·~···d

i''\\\.\0

... o...

--+--

YEAR

en

en w z z

0

0

o···o ... o

!/ \\\

--+--

o.

ii<j)

', ~~*"--*---~ o o o'

*"

----·· ... *

-. ----~

-*--

YEAR

w

z z ... 0

o ... o

....

SAITHE STOCK SIZE

... o···o ...

···o···o-... o/

--*--

.... o

"·-· ,__ *-·..::::-.... ---·- ----... .: -.:.-.,. ___ .,. ~--~---~

- _._--..A. ... ~~~~.:~-~--~

_,4----:.r: ....

YEAR

w

z

z 0

...

HERRING STOCK SIZE

.P···o __ -* ___

/./.~

0 .o·

... o···

.o

..o

··o.

YEAR

w

z

0 z

NORWAY POUT STOCK SIZE

---*---

•• ••

/;:~~:~~;~ :~:!~~::~ ... "' ... ··6··.... . .. " .

~

o ... o··· ·· ....

o

-*/ ',,~/.,.. '*--=*---*--·:::~:::-.::.-*

*-

•••

c) ^{o .}

--~-- ----------.L __

* -- ^*---

HADDOCK STOCK _SIZE

', ~~"-----~ ^{o o} o'

"·-· _{,} *-·..::::-.... ---·- ----... .: -.:.-.,. _ .,. ~--~---~

.P···o ^{ -* _}

/;::;~ :~:!~~::~ ... "' ... ··6··.... . .. " .

-/* ',,~/.,.. '--=-----·:::~:::-.::.-

en ^2,ooo

o\j .... / ^y... ^... v .... ·.. / ._._

0::<-...:_:::~:__ ^{\ //} ^\... ^\

-'~"-- .,._ --'"" - ^{- ----•} ~:-

^{.; '-}

^,--

•• •• _••

. . . .l . •• •• _••

en w ₆₀₀₀ z z