Investorene i norsk vindkraft
6 Juni, 2017
Lars Ove Skorpen
Tlf: +47 22 87 87 16
E-mail: [email protected]
Roles Background and experience
Advisory team
Partner, Corporate Finance. Joined Pareto Securities in 2000. Prior to joining Pareto Securities, he spent 3 years with Arthur Andersen Business Consulting. He has extensive experience from various parts of the energy industry, including the utility sector and companies operating within renewable energy. Educational background includes a Siviløkonom (Master of Business and Economics) degree from the Norwegian School of Management (BI) and a Certified Financial Analyst degree (AFA) from the Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration (NHH)
Yngve Walle
Core team Day to day involvement Network
Documentation and execution Process and strategy
Knowledge and experience Valuation
Director of Power and Renewables, Corporate Finance.Joined Pareto in 1998 and is director of Power & Renewable Energy, with broad experience within various parts of the energy sector, including utilities and renewable energy.
Involved in the majority of Pareto’s energy and utilities deals since 1999. Previous experience from PWC and founder of Elfinans. Educational background includes a Siviløkonom (Master of Business and Economics) degree from the Norwegian School of Management (BI), a Certified Financial Analyst degree (AFA) from the Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration (NHH), and MBA from the University of Wisconsin Madison
Lars Ove Skorpen
Corporate Finance. M.Sc. NTNU within Industrial Economics and Technology Management. Previous experience from internships in Statoil and SEB Corporate Finance. In Statoil, he worked with procurement related to offshore wind. Has been with Pareto Securities since August 2014, and has worked primarily with Power and Renewable Energy, focusing on M&A.
Bjørn Erik Heiberg
Industry knowledge Fredrik Steinslien
Jon Gjertsen Stian Abrahamsen
Corporate finance
Research
Renewable analyst
Diversified consumer and industrial analyst Renewable analyst, credit
Private & confidential
3
Recen t Pareto tran saction s – N ordic I n frastructure & Ren ewabl e
Selected Infrastructure & Renewable Transactions
Financial advisor to Aquila Capital Acquisition of Eramet S.A.’s stake in TinfosAS,
including acquisition of minorities Undisclosed Financial advisor to
Aquila Capital Acquisition of 100 % of
Norsk Grønnkraft AS Undisclosed
Financial advisor to SL Capital Partners Acquisition of 100 % of
Nordic Power from NordkraftAS
Undisclosed
Nordic Power
Financial Advisor to Aquila Capital Acquisition of 100% of
SmåkraftAS Undisclosed
Financial Advisor to SkagerakEnergiAS
Sale of 51% of the company to Telemark
Group AS Undisclosed Financial Advisor to
SKS, Helgelandkraft and HålogalandKraft Sale of fiber company to KystTele Holding
Undisclosed Financial Advisor to
Statnett Advisor to Statnetton bundle fiber with HVDC cable to UK and Germany
n/a
Financial Advisor to Nettpartner Sale of 100% of
EB Elektro Undisclosed Sole Financial Advisor
Advisory on amendment of terms of bond loans
Undisclosed Financial Advisor to
SEB Financial advisory
n/a
Financial Advisor to Agder Energi, Lyse and Dalane
energi
Sale of 100% of the shares in Bjerkreim Vind
Undisclosed
Financial Advisor to Hafslund Sale of Sarpsborg
Avfallsenergi to Whitehelm Capital
NOK 280m
Financial advisor to the City of Oslo Financial Advisory
n/a Financial advisor to
Ymber Acquisition of 48.2% of the
shares in Kvænangen KraftverkAS
NOK 370m
Financial Advisor Sale of company to Sampension
EUR 188m
Sole Manager Bond buy-back
EUR 40m
Pareto advised th e City of Oslo in the acquisition , delisting an d demerger of H afslund ASA
April 2017
Acquisition, delisting and demerger
NOK 47,7bn Parties: The City of Oslo (“OK”) and Fortum Oyj
Main companies / targets:
Hafslund ASA
Listed on Oslo Stock Exchange
Ownership: OK 54%, Fortum34%, Others 12%
Klemetsrudanlegget AS (“KEA”)
100% owned by OK
Transaction type: Acquisition/take-private and subsequent sale of assets
Sector: Power and Renewable Energy Process duration: 12 months + Closing: Expected Q3 2017 Transaction value: NOK 47,7bn Process type: Bilateral negotiation Pareto’s role: Sole financial advisor to OK
Deal summary Transaction elements
Deal #1: Acquisition, delisting and demerger OK, through Bidco, acquires Fortum’s shares in Hafslund at 96.75 NOK/share, offers to acquire the remaining outstanding shares in Hafslund, and delists the company. All segments except Production is transferred to New Hafslund
Deal #2: Hafslund Production
OK, through Bidco, sells 10% of Production to Fortum and 90% to E-Co Energi AS (100% owned by OK). Total EV of NOK 7.75bn
Deal #3: Hafslund Markets
OK, through New Hafslund, sells 100% of Markets to Fortum. Total EV of NOK 4.5bn
Deal #4: Hafslund Heat and KEA
Heat will purchase 100% of KEA from OK. EV for KEA 2.3bn. OK, through New Hafslund, sells 50% of Heat and KEA to Fortum. Total EV for Heat+KEAof NOK 7bn
Deal statistics
Segment EV Key metric EV / metric
Acquisition
of Hafslund NOK 28.5bn
EBITDA NOK3 143m
EV/EBITDA 9.1
Production NOK 7.75bn
Production
3.1 TWh
EV/Production
2.5 NOK/kWh Markets NOK 4.5bn
Customers
1 093 000
EV/Customer
4 117 Heat NOK 4.7bn
EBITDA 2016
NOK 437m
EV/EBITDA
10.8x KEA NOK 2.3bn
EBITDA 2016
NOK 153m
EV/EBITDA
15.0x
Pre transaction structure Post transaction structure
OK Fortum Others
E-Co KEA Hafslund
Production Distribution Heat Markets
100% 100% 54%
34% 12%
OK Fortum
E-Co
Production
Distribution KEA + Heat Markets
90%
10%
100% 100% 50% 50% 100%
Structure overview
Private & confidential
5
Overskrift på NVEs Vindkonferanse 2. juni 2014
..da så situasjonen slik ut
Private & confidential
7
. . I til l egg til at n ye prosjekter bl e skjøvet ut i tid
** Gammel eierkonstellasjon
**
Med en slik prisutvikling–hvem hadde da trodd på følgende…
9
Bjerkreim&Eigersund
Telleneset Midtfjellet
Rasskiftet
Hamnefjellet
Fosen
….deals med utenlandske investorer
Ånstadblåheiaog Sørfjord
Svak lønnsomhet
Andre CAPEX investeringer går foran (vann og nett) Sultne eiere som forlanger sitt i form avutbytte
En teknologi de ikke behersker like godt som vannkraft
Hvorfor ikke flere norske investorer i vind
Private & confidential
11
Vind case – Krevende lønnsomhet (i)
Antall turbiner 40
Turbinstørrelse 3,5 MW
Installert effekt 140 MW
Brukstid 3 500 timer
Produksjon 491 GWh
Levetid 25 år (fra 2020)
CAPEX NOK 1 350m (2,7 NOK/kWh)
OPEX Stigende fra 9 til 16 øre/kWh
Skatt 23 %
Inflasjon NOK 2,5 %
EUR 2,0 %
Hovedantagelser benyttet Kraftpriser øverst og el-cert nederst
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
2016 2018e 2020e 2022e 2024e 2026e 2028e 2030e 2032e 2034e Nasdaq forward Nasdaq forward + inflation EUR/MWh
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
2016 2018e 2020e 2022e 2024e 2026e 2028e 2030e 2032e 2034e Market forward Market forward + infl.
EUR/MWh
Vind case – Krevende lønnsomhet (ii)
Med dagens forwardpriser på kraft og el-cert er det krevende å oppnå tilstrekkelig lønnsomhet i vindkraftprosjekter
Krever lavt avkastningskrav og/eller positivt syn på kraftprisutvikling fremover
Verdisensitivitetpå WACC (6 –8 %)Illustrativprosjektkontantstrøm med 6 % WACC
Negativ verdiNegativ verdiNegativ
verdi
-1400
-1200 -1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400
2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 Estimertkontantstrøm (NOKm)
Netto kontantstrøm
65
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
6,0 %6,5
%7,0
%7,5
%8,0
% NOKm
Akkumulert diskontert kontantstrøm
Prosjekt IRR 6,6 %Nåverdi
med 6 % WACC NOK 65m
Private & confidential
13
PPA / EPA
Bare en håndfull aktører
Selger vil typisk ønske å selge kraften når det produseres, for kjøper gir det usikker timing og usikkert volum
Prising vil også være avhengig av durasjon, volum og prisområde
Kjøper vil typisk ønske å sikre 10-15 år
Med ElCertpriser i område 60 SEK/MWh så kan man lure på om det er noe poeng å sikre disse inntektene i det hele tatt
Normalt inngåelse av PPA/EPA ved financial close Vanskelig å få gratis opsjoner fra PPA motparter
PPA/EPA og gearing - de største utfordringene for vindinvestorene
Gjeld
Bankene vil typisk ønske å se sikring like lang eller lengre enn lånet
Liker i utgangspunktet ikke ElCertrisikoen da noen har worstcase scanarie på denne nær 0
Norske banker liker typisk lån 5-10 år, liker mindre 10 år og lengre
Gearingtypisk i området +/- 50 %
Eksempler på vind investorer i Norge
Kjøpere av prosjekter/
turn key Prosjektutviklere
Industrielle
aktører
Private & confidential
15
17
Svært mange investorer i Sverige tok investeringsbeslutning da prisene lå over €60/MWh – disse sliter nå
El-cert
Power pris Total pris
44,7
35,0
53,1 47,1
31,2
38,1
29,6
21,0 26,9 27,1
23,2 21,0 21,1 23,2
33,8
29,8
26,7
20,7
19,2
22,8
19,6
16,2
14,6
7,5
7,7 7,7 7,6 7,1
78,5
64,8
79,8
67,7
50,4
60,9
49,2
37,2 41,5
34,7 30,9 28,8 28,7 30,3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
EUR/MWh
Forward Power+ElCert
Historiske priser Power+ElCert
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Disclaimer
These materials have been prepared by Pareto Securities AS and/or its affiliates (together “Pareto”) exclusively for the benefit and internal use of the client named on the cover in order to indicate, on a preliminary basis, the feasibility of one or more potential transactions. The materials may not be used for any other purpose and may not be copied or disclosed, in whole or in part, to any third party without the prior written consent of Pareto.
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