Land – Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone: Past, present & future
$R. Ramesh
a,*, Z. Chen
b, V. Cummins
c, J. Day
d, C. D ’ Elia
d, B. Dennison
e, D.L. Forbes
f, B. Glaeser
g, M. Glaser
h, B. Glavovic
i, H. Kremer
j, M. Lange
c, J.N. Larsen
k, M. Le Tissier
c, A. Newton
l, M. Pelling
m, R. Purvaja
a, E. Wolanski
naNationalCentreforSustainableCoastalManagement,MinistryofEnvironment,ForestandClimateChange,AnnaUniversityCampus,Chennai600025, India
bEastChinaNormalUniversity,StateKeyLaboratoryforEstuarineandCoastalResearch,People’sRepublicofChina
cMaREICentre,UniversityCollegeCork,BeaufortBuilding,Ringaskiddy,Cork,Ireland
dDepartmentofOceanographyandCoastalSciences,LouisianaStateUniversity,Louisiana,UnitedStates
eUniversityofMarylandCenterforEnvironmentalScience,2020HornsPointRd.,Cambridge,MD21613,USA
fGeologicalSurveyofCanada,NaturalResourcesCanada,BedfordInstituteofOceanography,Dartmouth,NovaScotiaB2Y4A2,Canada
gDeutscheGesellschaftfürHumanökologie,Clayallee271,14169Berlin,Germany
hLeibniz-ZentrumfürMarineTropenökologie(ZMT)GmbH,Fahrenheitstr.6,28359Bremen,Germany
iSchoolofPeople,EnvironmentandPlanning,MasseyUniversity,PalmerstonNorth4442,NewZealand
jScientificAssessmentBranch,DivisionofEarlyWarningandAssessment,Nairobi,Kenya
kUniversityofAkureyri,StefanssonArcticInstitute,Iceland
lNILU,IMPEC-DepartmentofEnvironmentalImpactsandEconomics,2027Kjeller,Norway
mKing’sCollegeLondon,DepartmentofGeography,UK,UnitedKingdom
nTropWATERandCollegeofMarineandEnvironmentalScience,JamesCookUniversity,TownsvilleQ.4811,Australia
ARTICLE INFO
Articlehistory:
Received14August2015
Receivedinrevisedform20January2016 Accepted22January2016
Availableonline28January2016
Keywords:
LOICZ
Biogeochemicalmodels Social-ecologicalsystems Capacitybuilding Coastalresilience Sustainability
ABSTRACT
TheLand–oceanInteractionsintheCoastalZone(LOICZ)projectwasestablishedin1993asacoreproject of theInternational Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP)toprovide thescienceknowledge to answer“Howwillchangesinlanduse,sealevelandclimatealtercoastalsystems,andwhatarethewider consequences?”Initsfirstphaseofoperation(1993–2003)LOICZbeganafundamentalinvestigation focusedonbiophysicaldimensions,includingseminalassessmentsofcoastalseasasnetsourcesorsinks of atmospheric CO2, river discharge tothe oceans, and biogeochemical modelling. In the second generationofLOICZ(2004–2014),increasedattentionwaspaidtothehumandimensionsofthecoast, involvingtheinclusionofcross-cuttingthemessuchascoastalgovernance,social-ecologicalsystems, ecologicaleconomicsandactivitiesaroundcapacitybuildingandthepromotionofearlycareerscientists.
Thispaperprovidesasynthesisofthisworkandlooksforwardtothefuturechallengesfortheproject.
WiththetransitiontoFutureEarth,thereisaparadigmshiftemerging.Thenewvisionistosupport transformationtoasustainableandresilientfutureforsocietyandnatureonthecoast,byfacilitating innovative,integratedand solutions-orientedscience.Realising thisvisiontakes LOICZintoathird generation:tobeattheforefrontofco-designing,co-producingandco-implementingknowledgefor coastalresilienceandsustainability.LOICZasFutureEarthCoastswillcontinuetoaddress‘hotspots’of coastalvulnerability,focusingonthemesofdynamiccoasts,humandevelopmentandthecoast,and pathwaystoglobalcoastalsustainabilityandconstraintsthereof.
ã2016TheAuthors.PublishedbyElsevierLtd.ThisisanopenaccessarticleundertheCCBY-NC-ND license(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
1.Introduction
Thecoastsoftheworldformanarrowinterfacezonebetween marine and terrestrial areas in which large and growing proportionsofthehumanpopulationandglobaleconomicactivity arelocated.Thelow-elevationcoastalzone(LECZ)encompassing 2%oftheearth’slandarea(McGranahanetal.,2007)ishometo 600 million people (10% of the total population), of whom 360millionareurban(13%oftheworld’stotalurbanpopulation)
$ Exceptthefirstauthor,namesofallauthorsarearrangedinalphabeticorder andtheircontributionisequal.AllauthorsarepresentorpastmembersoftheLOICZ ScientificSteeringCommitteeand/orRegionalNodesandtheIPO.
* Correspondingauthor.Fax:+914422200158.
E-mailaddresses:[email protected],[email protected] (R. Ramesh).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2016.01.005
2213-3054/ã2016TheAuthors.PublishedbyElsevierLtd.ThisisanopenaccessarticleundertheCCBY-NC-NDlicense(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirect
Anthropocene
j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w . e l s ev i er . c o m / l o c a t e/ a n c en e
asofyear2000(CIESIN,2009).Thecoastalzonesustainssensitive ecosystemsprovidingcriticalhabitatformanyendangeredspecies, andhighlyimportantecosystem servicesin theformofcoastal protection,fisheriesand otherlivingresources,rich agricultural lands,areasofhighaestheticvalue,andistypicallyheldaspublic heritageandconnectslandand sea.Eightof thetoptenlargest citiesintheworldandmuch oftheworld’stourism,whichare increasinglyimportantinnationaleconomies,aresituatedatthe coast.
Coastalregionsandpopulationsareexposedtopressuresand hazardsfrombothlandandseamakingthecoastalzone“Arguably themosttransformedandimperilledsocial-ecologicalsystemon earth, [which] are characterized by pervasive unsustainable practices” (Cumminset al., 2014).To addressthese issues, the internationalresearchconsortiumLOICZ(Land–OceanInteractions intheCoastalZone)wasinitiatedasacoreprojectofIGBP(the InternationalGeosphere–Biosphere Programme) in 1993 toan- swerthecorequestion“Howwillchangesinlanduse,sealeveland climatealtercoastalsystems,andwhatarethewiderconsequen- ces?”(Crosslandetal.,2005).AfundamentalapproachthatLOICZ hastaken toaddress this question is recognitionthat that the coastalzoneisnotageographicboundaryofinteractionbetween the land and the sea but a global compartment of special significance for biogeochemicalcycling and processes and ever increasinglyfor humanhabitationand economies. The primary objectiveofLOICZwas“toprovidetheknowledge,understanding, globalvision,andpredictivecapacitytoenablecoastalcommuni- tiestoassess,anticipateandrespondtotheinteractionofglobal change and local pressures which determine coastal change” (Kremer et al., 2005). At its core, LOICZ is a network and communityofscientistsfromalldisciplinesandacross80countries
from all regions of the world who contribute their work and expertisetocollectivelyaddressanoverarchinggoalto‘todevelop thecapacitytoassess,modelandpredict(i)changeintheglobal coastalzoneundermultipleforcings(including humanactivity), and(ii)theconsequencesforhumanwelfare’(Kremeretal.,2005).
Through its activities LOICZ has served as a catalyst for methodological development, strategic research coordination, science communication, capacity building, and applications to enhancecoastalsustainabilityataglobalscale.
LOICZ has been managed through an International Project Office (IPO) supporting the strategic direction provided by a Scientific Steering Committee. TheIPO was first located at the Netherlands Institute for SeaResearch in Texel and financially supportedbythe DutchGovernment.In 2006, itmoved tothe InstituteforCoastalResearchattheGKSSResearchCentre(later HelmholtzZentrumGeesthachtCentreforMaterialsandCoastal Research(HZG))inGeesthacht,Germany,whichsupportedtheIPO until 2014. Asof January2015,the IPOis hostedat theMaREI CentreofUniversityCollegeCork(UCC),inIreland.Theglobalreach ofLOICZwasenhancedbyanetworkofregionalnodeengagement partnersinEastAsia,SoutheastAsia,SouthAsia,SouthAmerica andNorthAmerica,withemergingregionalcentresinTaiwan,the Caribbean,WestAfrica,andtheArctic.
The history of LOICZ can be clearly demarcated into three phases,1993–2003, 2004–2014,and from2015 toa newthird phasehavingtransitionedtoFutureEarthCoastsaspartofthenew FutureEarthprogramme(Fig.1).Fig.1showstheresearchfociin eachphasealongwiththemajoroutputs.AWebofSciencesearch usingLOICZasthesearchtermresultsinatotalof1189publications withaveragecitationsperyearof66.Inadditiontopeerreviewed journals outputs of LOICZ have been published in the LOICZ
Fig.1.TimelineofactivitiesandachievementsofLOICZ(1993–2015).
ResearchandStudies(R&S)reportsandbooks(http://www.loicz.
org/cms02/products/publication/). These included scientific reviews of LOICZ science, guidelines, datasets and scientific planning documents and a LOICZ synthesis report (Crossland etal.,2005)andasynthesisvolumeoncoastalnutrientfluxes(Liu etal.,2010).
1.1.Firstphase:1993–2003
Inthefirstphase(1993–2003),LOICZwasacoreprojectofIGBP and primarily concerned with the complex heterogeneity of coastalsystemsandtheirbiogeochemistry,withafocusonfluxes ofnutrientsandpollutants(SwaneyandGiordani,2011;Swaney etal.,2011).Therewerefourresearchfoci(Fig.1),thefirstthreeof whichaddressedtheimplicationsofchangesinexternalforcingor boundaryconditions,theeffects ofglobalchangeoncoralreefs, andcarbon fluxesand trace gasemissions.The fourthresearch focus foreshadowed later developments, with attention to economicandsocialimpactsofglobalchangeincoastalsystems.
1.2.Secondphase(2004–2014)
Basedontheoutcomesfromthefirst10yearsofactivity,LOICZ continuedas acoreprojectunder IGBPII andalso becameco- sponsored under IHDP (the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change). This was in recognition of an expanding research direction to a scientific agendathattightlycouplesthesocial-ecologicalsystemsasthey interactively influencethebiogeochemistryofcarbon, nutrients and sedimentsalong the catchment-coast continuum.The new SciencePlanand ImplementationStrategy(Kremeretal.,2005) comprisedthebiogeochemical,physicalandhumandimensionsof coastalchangeorganizedintofivethemes(Fig.1).
In2010,amid-termevaluationofLOICZ(Turneretal.,2010) recommended a new overarching frame of Vulnerability and AdaptationtoGlobalChange inthe CoastalZone,consideringthe interactionbetweennaturalandhumanfactorsincoastalsocial- ecologicalsystems(e.g.Glaeseretal.,2009a,b;GlaserandGlaeser 2011,2014).Thispointedtotheneedtointegrategovernanceand sustainabilityissuesalongwithecologicaleconomicswithnatural scienceresearch(e.g.Agboola,2014;Dayetal.,2014;Glaeserand Glaser,2011;Glavovic,2013a,b,2014;Hayetal.,2013;Laneetal., 2013;Mee,2012;Newtonetal.,2012;Olsenetal.,2009;Patterson andGlavovic,2013;PellingandBlackburn,2012,2014).Themid- termevaluationalsorecommendedtheconceptofLOICZ‘hotspots’ (Newtonetal.,2012)targetingeffortsatlargeriver-mouthsystems (deltasand estuaries), coastalurbanization, islandsat risk, and Arcticcoasts.
1.3.ProgressmadeovertheperiodofIGBPsupport
Afterthefirstdecade(1993–2003)offocusonnaturalscience (biogeochemical) themes, which produced the classical LOICZ approachtoestuarinestoichiometricbudgets,theseconddecade ofLOICZdevelopedanenhancedemphasisonthesocialsciences, namely environmental economics, sociology and the political science/governancenexus.Thisintegrationhasservedasafocus forcollaborativeresearchinitiativesthathasincludedmorethan 400 affiliated projects since 1993 providing a forum that has broughttogetherexpertsandapioneeringinterdisciplinaryteam- basedapproachtocoastalzonescienceandmanagement.Thiswas recognizedas an effectivemechanism of engagementwith the globalsciencecommunitybythemid-termreview(Turneretal., 2010), which suggesteddevelopingjoint researchprojects with activeinputsfromLOICZtoyieldaddedvalue.Theinternational scientificcommunitybenefitsbecauseLOICZintegratesknowledge
gainedatlocalandregionallevelstobuildanoverallglobalpicture usingaseriesofLOICZresearchfociandassessments.Inaddition, LOICZoutputsarepresentedontheprojectwebsite(www.loicz.
org and www.futureearthcoasts.org), a freely accessible ‘public good’contribution(Turneretal.,2010).
TheevolutionofLOICZovertheperiod1993–2014hasmirrored therole ofIGBPtocoordinate internationalresearchonglobal- scale andregional-scale interactionsbetweenEarth’sbiological, chemical and physical processes and their interactions with human systems. Thus, LOICZ has developed its programme to reflecttheinternationalagendaofglobalchangeresearch.Whilst continuingwithcoreresearchonbiogeochemicalbudgetmodels andcoastaltypologydevelopment,theLOICZfocushasextended tohotspotsofcoastalvulnerability(Newtonetal.,2012;Newton and Weichselgartner, 2014; Brown et al., 2014), especially of subsiding deltas (Day etal., 2007, 2014;Overeemand Syvitski, 2009;Syvitskietal.,2009)andArcticcoasts(Forbes,2011;Larsen et al., 2014a,b), the assessment of governance especially with respecttonaturalhazardsandpost-disasterrecoveryexperiences (Glaseretal.,2010;Glavovic,2014;Olsenetal.,2009),asynthesis ofurbanisationandcoastalchangeprocesses(Sekovskietal.,2012;
PellingandBlackburn,2012,2014),holisticassessmentofsocial- ecologicalsystems(GlaserandGlaeser,2014;Glaseretal.,2012;
Newtonet al.,2014), andadaptingtoachanging climateatthe coast(Glavovicetal.,2015a,b).Anadditionalemergingthemewas theissueofglobalconstraintsonachievingsustainability(Halland Day,2009;Dayetal.,2014).
1.4.Linkswithinternationalresearchprogrammes
Within IGBP,LOICZ haslinkedwitha numberof otherESSP projectsincludingAIMES,GCP, GECAFS,thenewHuman Health initiative,and inparticularGWSP,which dealswithcatchment- based hydrological and freshwater resource issues. Specific contextual collaboration with IMBER through a Continental MarginsWorking Group,and SOLAS, todesign observation and modelling strategies that link coastal systems to oceanic and atmospheric systems hastakenplace. Aswell asworking with other EESP projects, LOICZ has also worked with external organizations,suchasUNEPGPAandIHP/IOCofUNESCOprimarily inthedevelopmentofoutreachandcapacitybuildingelementsto theproject.
2.Scientificachievements
With over 1000 publications, books and R&S reports and a communityofthousandsofscientistswhohaveinsomewaybeen involvedwithLOICZovertheperiod1993–2014,itisimpossibleto capture alltheproject’sachievements ina singlepaper. Inthis sectionwereflectonsomeofthekeyoutcomesfromLOICZthat haveshapedthedevelopmentoftheproject,anditscontributions toourunderstandingofglobalchange.Thisisorganisedfromthe perspectives of biogeochemical modelling carried out during LOICZ I and the LOICZ II focus to bring to centre stage the vulnerabilities of both humans and ecosystems—given the anthropogenically altered and changing state of the coast, and themechanismsformitigatingthesethroughdefiningsustainable futurescenarios.
2.1.Biogeochemicalnutrientbudgetingandtypologies
TheLOICZbiogeochemicalmodel(SwaneyandGiordani,2011;
Swaneyetal.,2011)wasdevelopedtoprovideasimplemodelfor managersandplannersthatanswersthequestion:‘wheredothe nutrients(carbon,nitrogenandphosphorus)go?’Italsohelpsto establishwhetherthecoastaloceanisasourceorasinkofCO2,
importantinthecontextofclimatechange.Themodelhasbeen appliedtoestuariesandcoastalwatersworldwide(http://nest.su.
se/mnode/andBuddemeieretal.,2002;Liuetal.,2010;Swaney andGiordani,2011).Morethan200site-specificbudgetsforma globalnutrientandcarboninventoryforthecoastalocean(Fig.2).
Scientistsfromaroundtheworldhavecontributeddescriptionsof site budgets to a central website (see http://nest.su.se/mnode/
wmap.htm; http://nest.su.se/mnode).Attheendof 2002,LOICZ wasabletoprovideafirstglobalsynthesisofnutrientfluxesandC, NandPmetabolismincoastalwaters,drawingonsitestudiesfrom regionalcompilationsinMexico,Australasia,CentralAmerica,the SouthChinaSea,SouthAmerica,EastAsia,Africa,theMediterra- nean,theBlackSea, and polarregions, addressingquestions of land-based drivers and best approximations for coastal system functions(Buddemeieretal.,2002)(Fig.2).Asignificantfinding wasthattheNEM(p–r)decreaseswithincreasingvaluesofthe waterresidencetimeT,(Swaneyetal.,2011;Xuetal.,2013).This implies that, worldwide, rapidly flushed systems have a much smallerNEMthanslowlyflushedsystems.Theserelationshipsand themethodologyhaveprovidedthecoastalscientificcommunity withawidelyusedtooltoquantifythebiogeochemicalfluxesin estuariesandcoastalwatersaroundtheglobe.
Initssimplestmode,thatofaverticallywell-mixedestuary,the modeldividesanestuaryintothree compartments:namelythe river,theestuaryandcoastalwaters. It usesfielddataonriver inflow,rainfall,salinity,andbathymetrytocalculatetheresidence timeofwaterintheestuary.Themodelisdesignedtobeeasyto useevenbynon-specialistsasitiswritteninMSExcelandrequires onlyclearlylabelledinputdata.Formorecomplexsystems(e.g.
vertically stratified systems and/or long or complex branched systems) the model can readily add additional compartments spread horizontally and/or vertically to better represent the system;theoutputof waterandsalt fromonecompartment is theinputtotheadjoiningcompartments(Swaneyetal.,2011).The modelusesfielddataof dissolvedinorganicnitrogen(DIN)and dissolvedinorganicphosphorus(DIP)foreachcompartmentand additional local sources of N and P such as from sewage, aquacultureandgroundwater.Itcalculatesthenetbudget(inflow minusoutflow)ofDINandDIPintheestuary;andcomparesthese
budgetswiththoseexpectedifthenutrientswereconservative;
from that difference and relying on classical stoichiometry, it calculatesthenetecosystemmetabolism(NEM)asp-r(production minus respiration, expressed in mmolCm2d1) and nitrogen fixation minus denitrification (nfix-denit; in mmolesm2yr1).
Themodelrevealsthatsomeestuarieshaveapositivevalueofp–r (autotrophicestuaries)andsomeestuarieshaveanegativevalue (heterotrophic estuaries). Noclear rules of typology have been foundtoenablepredictionupfront,intheabsenceofdata,whether anestuarywillhaveapositiveornegativeNEM.Thismeansthat field data are still needed for individual estuaries. However, providedthesefewfielddataonhydrology,bathymetry,salinity andnutrientsinthethreecompartmentsareavailable,thenutrient budgetcanbecalculatedforanyestuary.
Recently,theLOICZbiogeochemicalmodelhasbeendeveloped toincludetheeffectoffinesuspendedsedimentthatcansequester (orrelease)dissolvednutrientstoestimatenutrientbioavailability in estuarine and coastal waters (Xu et al., 2013, 2015). If the suspendedparticulatematter(SPM)wasconstantintheriver,in theestuaryandincoastalwaters,therewouldbenoproblemand theLOICZmodeliscorrect.HoweverinmostestuariestheSPM variesbetweentheriver,theestuaryandthecoastalwaters.This hasamajorimplicationonthesequestrationorreleaseofnutrients to/fromtheparticulateform.TheLOICZmodelwascorrectedto takeaccountthiseffectandthis‘muddy’LOICZ modelhasbeen appliedtotheYangtzeEstuary,Chinaanddemonstratedthatthe valueofthenutrientpartitioncoefficientintheYangtzeEstuary showsasimilardependenceasthatinEuropeanestuaries.High valuesofNEMarefound,withp–r=10.9mmolCm2day1for thenon-floodseason.Ifnutrientpartitioningwereneglected,this valuewould be2.7mmolCm2day1,whichwouldhavebeen wronglyinterpretedasbiologicaldecayintheturbiditymaximum zone and primary production in coastal waters. The rate of heterotrophyisthusthreetimeshigherthanwhentheinteraction ofSPMwiththenutrientsisneglected(Xuetal.,2013).TheLOICZ modelsareusefultodescribethechangeinthefluxof
D
DIPfrompositivetonegativeand thep–rfromnegativetopositivesince 1999.Thesechangesindicatethat,whereasinthepasttheestuary wasasourceofDIPandaheterotrophicsystem,nowithasbecome
Fig.2. MapoflocationsofLOICZbudgetsites.
asinkofDIPandanautotrophicsystem.Thechangingecosystem canbeexplainedbytheupstreamdamconstructionthatdecreases SPMbutnotorganicmatterandnutrientfluxestotheestuarydue toincreasingsewageandfertilizers(Xuetal.,2015)
ThemuddyLOICZmodelwasrecentlyalsomodifiedtoinclude theout-wellingtotheestuaryofplantdetritusfromtidalwetlands, e.g.mangroveleavesasinthecaseoftheWamiEstuaryinTanzania (Kiwango et al., 2015). More recently again, the muddy LOICZ model was merged with the UNESCO estuarine eco-hydrology modelofWolanskietal.(2006a,b)toextendthemodelpredictions toplanktonandfish(WolanskiandElliott,2015).Itisbeingused withsuccessintheChilikaLagooninIndia,themangrove-fringed WamiEstuaryinTanzania,LaizhouBayintheBohaiSea,Chinaand by the Government of India’s National Centre for Sustainable CoastalManagementforanon-goingstudyofestuaries.Thefateof nutrientsandthelevelofeutrophicationof10estuariesofnational importancearebeingmodelled inorder todevelop policiesfor sustainability.
2.2.Linkingsocialandecologicalsystemsinthecoastalzone Researchincoastalareashastraditionallyfollowedtwolargely disparatestreamsinthenaturalsciencesandthesocialsciences with limited interaction (largely in the field of engineering) between the two. Over time, it has become clear that issue- focussedinterdisciplinarityisneededtoanalysetheinterrelated naturalandsocialdriversofcoastalchange,includinginteractions andfeedbackswithhumansystemsfromtheinlandwatershedto theoceanshelf(Glaeser2002,2004).Thisfocusisreflectedinthe development of integrated coastal management (ICM) and increased attention to disaster risk reduction, climate-change impactsandadaptation,andintegratedsocial-ecologicalsystems inthecoastalzone.ThesecondphaseofLOICZhasechoedsuch developments leading to newinitiatives in the fieldof coastal governance(e.g. Olsen et al., 2009)and theanalysis of social- ecologicalsystemsatvariousscalesandlevels(e.g.Glaeseretal., 2009a,b;GlaserandGlaeser,2014).Therewasalsoanewemphasis onpathwaystoeffectiveadaptationandmeasuresforenhancing adaptive capacity and resilience in coastal communities (e.g.
Glaseretal.,2010,2012;Glavovicetal.,2015a,b;Hayetal.,2013;
Hillsetal.,2013;Laneetal.,2013)andontheapplicationofnatural sciencedatatounderpin evidence-basedanalysisof adaptation challengesanddisasterriskreduction(e.g.Forbesetal.,2013a,b).
LOICZ outputs have provided a frameworkfor consideration of representativesocial-ecologicalsystems,includingtheeconomic drivers, costs,benefits, and resilience/adaptation challenges, to movefromtheoreticalanalysistoamoreappliedandintegrated approach at regional and/or global scales (Glaeser and Glaser, 2010). Also recognized was the importance of an explicit evaluationoftheneedsofpolicymakers,supplyingscienceinputs that support evidence-based decision-making and adaptive management (Glaeser et al., 2009a,b). Particular attention was paid to interdisciplinary research on risk and management of stormsurges(Kremeretal.,2013).
As a precondition to effective systematic social-science engagementinresearchonhuman-naturedynamics,LOICZsocial scientists have also developed a conceptual framework for managingthesocial-ecological dynamicsof coastalecosystems.
Five quality criteria for assessment of the social dimension of ecosystemmanagement weredeveloped. On the basis of these criteria,sevencomponentswereintegratedintoacomprehensive conceptualframeworkforthesocialdimensionofsocial-ecological management(Fig.3)(GlaserandGlaeser,2011).
Methodology development to implement the analysis of interlinked social and ecological dynamics is relatively recent (Glaeseretal.,2009a,b)andhasbeenstrongwithinLOICZ(Newton,
2012;Garietal.,2014;Newtonetal.,2014).Asetofsystem-focused indicators for measuring and understanding sustainability-en- hancingprocessesintropicalcoastalandmarinesocial-ecological systemswasjointlydevelopedbynaturalandsocialscientistsfrom two LOICZ affiliated projects: Science for the Protection of IndonesianCoastal Ecosystems(SPICE)andMangroveDynamics andManagement(MADAM)operatinginNorthBrazil.Thegeneric indicators for social, ecological and social-ecological system processes that were developed from the two decades of field experienceintheseandotherprojects(Glaseretal.,2012)shiftthe focus of social-ecological systems analysisfrom theanalysis of systemstatestotheprocessesthatmovesocial-ecologicalsystems betweenalternatestates—thekeytotransformativechange.Witha problem-focuseddefinitionofaspecificsocial-ecologicalsystem, and withmulti-agentmodellingasthefirstimportantinterface betweennaturalandsocialanalyses,LOICZsciencehasenabledthe derivationofemergentsocial-ecologicalphenomenaonthebasis ofsocialandnaturalsciencedata.Theobjective,onwhichwork continues,istointerlinksocialandecologicalprocessestodevelop an understandingof theunderlying causesof identified system changes in coastal and marine social-ecological systems at multiple levels and across temporal, spatial, institutional and otherscales.
TheseconsiderationsledLOICZ tosponsorthepublicationof the twelve-volume Treatise on Estuarine and Coastal Science (Wolanskiand McLusky,2011), releasedinearly 2012involving many former and current SSC and regional node members.
Collectively, the chapters in this treatise illustrate that the effectivenessofintegratedmanagement islargelydependenton addressing the right temporal and spatial scales of issues of environmentalchange.Itemphasisesthatgoodgovernancecanbe seriouslycompromisedbydriversthatoriginateat greatspatial distance from the area of concern. Sustainable human-nature dynamicsincoastalareasneedcooperationandcoordinationfor decision-making by stakeholders, scientists, and practitioners across traditional barriers. Such a partnership advances the capacityforcommunitiestocopewithchangeandreverseadverse effectsoncoastalzonesandresources.Effectivecommunication, partnerships,trustbuilding,andownershiparepivotalelementsin thiscontext.
2.2.1.Linkinggovernanceandscienceincoastalregions
Governance is a central theme in political science, and increasinglyinothersocialsciences.WorkinSouthAmerica,Asia andAfricaandinvariouscontextsaroundtheworldbyStephen OlsenandothersframedICMasaprocessthattakesplacewithina governance framework wherein divergent goals, interests and understanding are negotiated in political interactions between coastalstakeholders(Olsenetal.,2009).Thegovernancechallenge is toenable key actorsfrom government,civil society and the privatesectortoworktogetherinwaysthatreconcileprivateand public,andshort-andlong-term,interestsinpursuitofresilience andsustainability.Inordertopinpointandovercomebarriersto implementingICM,OlsenandcolleaguesdevelopedtheOrderof Outcomes framework (Olsen et al., 2009).This recognizes that coastalgovernanceisalong-termundertakingthatrequiresstep- wisechangesinbehaviourandinstitutionalreformtoovercome prevailingunsustainablepath-dependencies.
Olsenandcolleagueshavedevelopedconceptualframeworks andmethodsforassessinggovernancedimensionsofecosystem change. Theydevelopedastep-by-stepprocessforassemblinga baselineoftrendsintheconditionanduseofcoastalresourcesand ecosystemsandhowgovernancechoicesshapethesustainability of coastal livelihoods (Olsen et al., 2009). Developing deeper understandingofthenatureofcoastalgovernanceandthebarriers and opportunitiesfor advancingsocietalgoals ofresilience and
sustainabilityliesattheheartofongoingLOICZcoastalgovernance work(e.g. Glavovic, 2014), including further development and applicationof thegovernancebaselineframework and method.
Recently, jointwork between LOICZ and theIntegrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research (IMBER) project has identifiedthecontinentalmarginasthenewfrontierforresource exploitationandcolonizationtomeettheneedsofcoastalnations andhumanityoverall(Glavovicetal.,2015a,b).
2.2.2.Sciencecommunicationandscience-policyinterface
Effectivesciencecommunicationisthesuccessfuldissemina- tionof knowledgetoawiderangeofaudiences,fromspecialist scientiststhroughmanagersandpoliticianstothepublic. LOICZ hassponsoredseveralsciencecommunicationtrainingopportu- nities.Theseincludeworkshopsoncreatingconceptualsyntheses portrayedin simple diagramsattheLOICZ II conferenceinthe Netherlands in June 2005, at the Littoral 2006 conference in Poland,andattheIntegratedVulnerabilityAssessmentofCoastal Areas workshop in the Philippines in September 2007. A full sciencecommunicationtrainingworkshopwasalsoconductedin Bangkok, Thailand, in September 2005 (Goh et al., 2005), in addition toa one-weekcourse on science communication and integratedecosystemassessmentinFaro,Portugal,inMay2006as partoftheErasmusMundusJointMaster’sprogrammeinWater and Coastal Management. LOICZ has also made significant contributions to the synthesis of science for wider audiences andinparticulartheapplicationofscientificknowledgeforcoastal
managementanddecisionmaking(e.g.LeTissieretal.,2006;Mee, 2012).
Among the science communication products developed by LOICZ are the ecosystem summary diagrams produced at the Global Synthesis Workshop in Lawrence, Kansas in November, 2001.Thismethodwas usedtodescribethestateof theChilika Lake lagoon system on the east coast of India, facilitating disseminationofinformationtothescientistandlaypersonalike.
ChilikaLakeissubjectedtoconstantpressuresfrombothnatural and human activities. Fig.4 schematicallyhighlights causes of pressuressuchasoverfishing,tourism,pollutionandsedimenta- tionthatareeasilycomprehensibletocoastalresidents(especially fishermen)andpolicymakersalike,sothatsubsequentmanage- mentactionisadaptedtosustaintheecosystem.
2.3.Focusonhotspots
LOICZ hotspotsareareas whererates ofcoastalchangemay exceedthecapacityofnaturaland/orsocialsystemstoaccommo- dateoradapt(Newtonetal.,2012;NewtonandWeichselgartner, 2014).HerewesummariseoutputsfromLOICZresearchintoeach ofthe4hotspots.
2.3.1.Arcticcoasts
Arcticcoastsareundergoingrapidchangeonmanyfronts,with climatewarmingdrivingrapidreductionofseaice,lossofland- basedice,permafrostdegradation,acceleratedcoastalerosionand
Fig.3.Social-ecologicaldynamicsofcoastalecosystems:aconceptualframework.
carbondeliverytotheArcticOcean,enhancedmethanerelease, anda hostof othereffects, withseriousimplicationsfor Arctic coastalcommunities(Fig.5).ThehighlightofLOICZworkonArctic coastswastheStateoftheArcticCoast2010report(Forbes,2011), jointly sponsored by LOICZ, IASC (International Arctic Science Committee),the Arctic Monitoringand Assessment Programme (AMAP) of theArcticCouncil, and theInternationalPermafrost Association(IPA).Therecognitionoftheneedforsuchareportand theinitiativetolaunchitarosefromajointLOICZ–IASCconference onArcticcoastsatriskinTromsø,Norway,in2007(Flöseretal., 2007).
An overviewof coastal stability on the circum-Arctic coast, summarizingresultsoftheLOICZ-affiliatedArcticCoastalDynam- icsProject(Lantuitetal.,2012)fedintotheStateoftheArcticCoast report.Inaddition,LOICZaffiliatedresearchershavebeeneditors/
authorsintheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmental PanelonClimateChange(Larsenetal.,2014a,b)andthe2014Arctic Human Development Report: Regional Processes and Global Linkages(Larsenand Fondahl,2014).Thesedocumentsupdated
andwentbeyondthebaselinereportpublishedin2004providing anassessmentofthemajortrendsinhumandevelopmentacross theArctic.KeyfindingsofAR5relatedtoArcticsocial-ecological systemsincludedimpactsofclimatechangeonArcticcommuni- ties withnarrowlybasedeconomies, andincreasingimpactson Arctic residents, particularly indigenous peoples (Larsen et al., 2014a,b).KeyfindingsinAR5alsoemphasizedthattherapidrateof climatechangeintheArcticmayexceedtherateatwhichhuman andnaturalsystemscansuccessfullyadaptinthisregion(Ibid.).
Evolving efforts to address sustainability challenges in Arctic coastal communities include community-based monitoring ini- tiatives under the Inuit Circumpolar Council, the Exchange for Local Observations and Knowledge of the Arctic (ELOKA), the LOICZ-sponsoredCircumpolarArcticCoastalCommunitiesObser- vatory Network (CACCON) and Arctic Social Indicators (ASI) (Larsen et al., 2014a,b). Arctic community and stakeholder involvementin coastalresearchis increasing:examplesinclude the co-design of coastal risk assessment in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region,western ArcticCanada(Forbesetal., 2013a, Fig.4. ConceptualdiagramofmajoractivitiesandtheirimpactsonChilikaLagoon,India.ThediagramsillustratehowChilikaLakeissubjectedtoconstantpressuresfrom bothnaturalprocessesandhumanactivities.Byidentifyingthesepressuresthrougheffortssuchasanecosystemhealthreportcardandsubsequentmanagementactions,the likelihoodofChilikaLaketosustainitselfisimproved.
(Source:http://ian.umces.edu/pdfs/ian_report_card_425.pdf).
b) and new approaches to drinking water security in coastal communitiesofNunatsiavut,easternsub-ArcticCanada(Goldhar etal.,2013).
2.3.2.Islandsatrisk
LOICZ-affiliatedresearchonsmallislandshasincludedleader- shipintheSPICEproject(SciencefortheProtectionofIndonesian Coastal Ecosystems, http://www.loicz.org/cms02/projects/docu- ments/010049/index_0010049.html.en.html)aspartof a LOICZ- affiliatedcoastalresearchcollaboration(GlaeserandGlaser,2010, 2011)andacontributiontotheCoralTriangleInitiative(Ferseetal., 2012).
ResearchonverysmallislandsintheSpermondeArchipelago offsouthwesternSulawesiidentifiedchallengesof over-popula- tion,resourcedepletion, social networksand hierarchies, social vulnerability,resilience,andgovernancefacingresidentsofthese social-ecologicalmicrocosms (Fig.6)(GlaeserandGlaser, 2010;
Ferseetal.,2012),anddevelopspolicyrecommendationsbasedon thetightlinkbetweenfishinglivelihoodsandecosystemhealthin smallisland reef fisheries(Glaseret al., 2015).Research inthe Caribbean islands under the LOICZ-affiliated project C-Change identifiedmanysimilarconstraintsbothinsmallislandssuchas Bequia(St.VincentandtheGrenadines)andinremotecommuni- tiesonlargerislandssuchasTrinidad(MycooandGobin,2013;
Laneetal.,2013).Adaptivemanagementstrategiesidentifiedinthe Spermonde Archipelago include an integrated co-management strategyacrosstheregion,incorporatinglocalecologicalknowl- edge (through local observers), and constructiveintegration of localpowerbrokers (patrons), who areimportant stakeholders abletoswayfishingdecisions(Ferseetal.,2014).
A globalanalysisofisland types,associatedhazardexposure andadaptionstrategieshighlightedtherelativeimportanceofsea- level rise (SLR), reef degradation, storm surges, storm waves, rainfallandlandslides,andnon-climatehazardssuchastsunamis as a function of island type, size, topography, and geographic setting (Fig. 7). The figure shows four distinctive island types
(raised atoll, atoll, volcanic island, continental fragment) with major(solidline)ormoderate(brokenline)exposuretovarious naturalhazardsandaselectionofappropriateadaptationactions.
Projections of relative sea-level change were presented for 18 representative small islands in three oceans, showing that glacialmeltwaterfingerprintingleadstoslightlyenhancedSLRon tropicalislands,butthatthesea-levelriseexperiencedlocally(the so-called relativesealevelrise), iscriticallydependentoneach island’scrustalstability(upliftorsubsidence).Becauseadjacent islands move differentially, vertical motionand RSL cannot be extrapolatedfromnearbyislands,andthereisacriticalneedfora greatly expanded network of geodetic monitoring sites or alternative strategies to measure vertical motionon individual islandsasaprerequisiteforrealisticprojectionsoflocalsea-level
Fig.6.Dense humanoccupationofaminiature island(5020S 1917E)in the SpermondeArchipelago,Indonesia.
Fig.5.ThehumandimensionintheArcticcoastalzone(reproducedfromParewick,2006).
rise to evaluate island community vulnerability (Forbes et al., 2013a,b).
2.3.3.River-mouthsystemsincludingdeltasandestuaries
River-mouth systems that include deltas and estuaries are extremelyimportantecologicallyand economically.Theseareas provideawide varietyofecosystemgoodsand servicessuchas fisheries, avian habitat,agricultural land, and storm protection (Dayetal.,2013).Thecoastalzoneisthemostrapidlyurbanizing areaontheglobeandthegrowingurbanpopulationisseverely stressingtheseimportantsystems.Thebiogeochemicalmodelling discussedearlierisnowbeingwidelyappliedindifferentcoastal systemsworldwide.
Anumberofimportantsynthesispapershavebeenpublished byLOICZ-associatedscientists(Syvitskietal.,2009;Vorosmarty etal.,2009;Giosanetal.,2014).Forexample,Giosanetal.(2014) showedthatsedimentinputtomostmajordeltasisinsufficientto maintainelevationwithrisingsealevel(Fig.8).Inaddition,two recentbookshavebeenpublishedundertheLOICZimprintinthe Estuaries of theWorldseries published bySpringer (Wolanski, 2014; Day et al., 2014). A recent book on integrated coastal managementoftheGulfofMexicowasco-editedbyacurrentSSC member(DayandYáñez-Arancibia,2014).Acentralquestionofall of these studies is how global constraints affect the ability to managecoastal ecosystemsin a sustainablemanner.The river- coast continuum concept has been examined in a number of Research and Synthesis (R&S) Reports that have consolidated regionallyorganisedinformationasAfrica,SouthAsia,EastAsia, Caribbean, Latin America (LOICZ Research and Studies Series availableonlinefromwww.loicz.org).
AnongoingresearchprojectcalledDELTAS(http://delta.umn.
edu/)islookingtoanswerthequestion:‘Howdoclimatechange, pressure on resources, and engineering/infrastructure develop- mentmakepeople,biodiversity,anddeltaecosystemsvulnerable?’ 2.3.4.Coastalurbanization
Theworldis urbanising, and themost rapidurbanisation is takingplaceonthecoast.Atthesametimescientificknowledgeon coastalsystemsandurbanisationprocessesisdisarticulated.While weknowagreatdealaboutcitiesandthecoastweknowrelatively littleabouttheirinteractions,includingtheseawardandlandward
boundaries of coastalprocesses (Sekovski et al.,2012).To help resolvethis,acommunityofpracticehasbeenbuilt.Thishasbeen facilitatedthroughastagedprocessbuiltaroundkeyoutputs.First, aspartofaLOICZInternationalConferenceinYantai,China,aseries ofworkshopsledtotheidentificationofkeythemes,casestudy citiesandauthorstoshapeasynthesisreviewofMegacitiesonthe Coast:Risk,ResilienceandTransformation(PellingandBlackburn, 2012).
Thispeer-reviewedsynthesisbroughttogether68authorsand was supportedby IGBP, LOICZ and King’sCollege London. The Synthesiswithaprospectiveconclusionandexecutivesummaryis publishedbyRoutledge–Earthscan(PellingandBlackburn,2014) andhasbeenakeytextfortheurbanandcoastalissuechapterin theIPCC5thAssessmentReportaswellasinfluencingIGBP–IHDP reportingandsciencepriorities.
Building on Megacities and the Coast, two discrete research projectshavebeenfundedundertheBelmontForumaddressing vulnerabilityonthecoast.BothareduetocompleteinMay2016.
TheTRUCproject(http://www.bel-truc.org)–Transformationand Resilience onUrbanCoasts– hasa focusoncoastalmegacities (Kolkata,Lagos,London,NewYorkandTokyo).Aframework(Fig.9) hasbeendesignedtoanswertheresearchquestion:‘Whatarethe constraints on policy capacity for moving coastal megacity developmentplanningbetweenresilienceandtransformationas modes of adaptation tosea-level rise and heat-stress risk?’ In additiontoacademicoutputs,theprojectisproducinganapproach foradaptationpathwaysthatincludestheintegrationofbiophysi- cal,floodhazardandvulnerabilitymodelswithmethodstosolicit stakeholderassessmentoforganisationaladaptivecapacity.This unique methodology evaluates policy decisions that, while providingimmediatesolutionstoonesectororareacanincrease thevulnerability ofanother, especiallyover thelongterm; and therefore the need for a more futuristic approach in decision- making.Resultshighlighttheconstraintsonadaptationimposed bydevelopmenttrajectoriesandculturesofdecision-making.For example when solutions for urban flooding are framed by competingdevelopment visionsandvalues,asin respondingto sea-level rise in Jamaica Bay, New York, options include the relocationofrentalpopulationsand theconsolidationofcapital throughprivatesectorledgentrificationortheopeningofgreen andbluespacethroughstatesponsoredcoastalretreat.
Fig.7.Templateofphysicalislandtypeswithassociatedhazardexposureandadaptationoptions(modifiedfromForbesetal.,2013).
Bothoptionshavevalueanddecisionswillbeinformedbyand helpsetintrainwidervisionsofthecityanditsurbanfuture.Other difficultiesstemfromtherecognitionoftheneedtoplanformulti- hazardriskincitieswhereexistinginfrastructureandland-useare framed by single issue risk and so limit adaptation options.
Commontoallourcities,heatwaveisbecomingmorefrequentand deadlierbutcontinuestobemanagedthroughmedicalresponseor engineering—with risk reduction through social policy proving difficulttomobilise.
Asecondproject,Metropole,examinesthesocial,administra- tiveandculturalcontextsforadaptationpreferencesinthefaceof sea-level rise. The focus here is on smaller communities with 1000–100,000residents:SantosisaportcitysupplyingSaoPaulo, Brazil;SelsyisaretirementcentreonthesouthcoastoftheUK;
HollywoodisalocaltouristcentreassociatedwithStPetersburg, Florida.Alargeproportionoffutureurbanisationwilltakeplacein thesesmallerurbansettlements butthey arerarely afocus for study. The study combines climate-change projections and building-costdatatoproduceeconomicevaluationsfora range ofphysicaladaptationoptionsandusethisasabasistoexplorethe valuesthatconstrainindividualandcollectiveadaptationchoices— and the gaps that emerge between adaptationpreference and
constrained choice.Animportantconclusionisthefindingthat smalltownsandcitiesareleftoutofregionaladaptationplanning andbudgetstructuresandareakeypointofweaknessinholistic coastalriskmanagement.Aclearpolicyoutcomeherewouldbe thatfutureplanningstrategiesshouldincludesuchsmalltowns andcitiesintheirframeworkforriskmanagement.
2.4.Capacitybuildingandcross-cuttingactivities
LOICZcreatedtwointernationalmastercourseson“Waterand CoastalManagement”and“Ecohydrology”withEUfundingfrom theErasmusMundusprogramme,whichallowedtheexchangeof LOICZgraduatestudents,scholarsandinternshipsattheIPO.The courses are delivered by SSC members past and present to international students since 2004 and are still ongoing with financingsecureduntil2019.Thishasprovedsosuccessfulthata furtherPhDprogramme “MarineandCoastalManagement”was also funded. Several post-graduate students have also done internshipsattheLOICZIPO.Inadditionalargenumberofearly careerscientistswasgiventheopportunitytoapplyforfundsto participateinLOICZconferencesandassociatedactivitiesspecifi- cally dedicated to young scientists (Young LOICZ Forum 2011, Fig.8.Sedimentinputtomajordeltasandsealevelrise.
Yantai, China). PhD students werealso invited toaffiliate their researchprojectstothenetwork.
2.5.KeylinkstobroaderearthsystemscienceandIGBP
Earthsystemanalysisaddressesthehighestpossiblelevelon thespatialscale:planetearth.Althoughthepasttwodecadeshas seensignificantadvances inourunderstandingofearth system science, ensuring it successfully informs and contributes to decision-making remains elusive. New forms of transformative sciencearerequiredthatfacilitatetheparticipationandempow- ermentofecosystemusersandotherinfluentialstakeholdersin reflections and decisions concerning the natural systems their livelihoods depend on. Particularly in strongly hierarchical contexts this requires the explicit establishment of two-way communicationsbetweenallrelevantstakeholders.LOICZprojects havebeenaddressingthisattheregionallevel(Glaseretal.,2010).
Thetaskof linkingthe analysisoflocal and regionalsocial- ecologicalprocessestoglobalchallengesanddriversisaddressed ina2014specialissueofthejournalRegionalEnvironmentalChange on linking regional dynamics in coastal and marine social-
ecological systems to global sustainability (Glaser and Glaeser, 2014).ThispublicationarisesfromtwoLOICZ-supportedconfer- encesessions.Intenarticles,itaddressesintegratingmulti-level analyses,knowledgesystemsandgovernance.Thequestionofhow to link the analysis of place-specific social-ecological system features and dynamics to major global environmental change processes is far from resolved. However, scientists initially collaboratingundertheLOICZPriorityTopic 1(Social-ecological Systems Analysis) showthat analysisat the regionallevel is a promisingpointofdepartureforgeneratingsustainability-orient- edcross-scaleand multi-levelanalyses.Theapproachoffersthe outline of a typology, grounded in regional social-ecological analysisandappliedtoninecoastalcasestudies,inwhichdifferent disciplinaryand otherformsof knowledgecanbeintegratedin regionallygroundedanalysesandactionwhichalsoengageswith globalsustainabilitychallenges(GlaserandGlaeser,2014).
Issue-basedglobalanalysisisalsoreflectedinthedevelopment of earthsystem science,which has, overthepast twodecades, worked through global projects on land use, carbon, food and health issues, and on land-ocean interactions. The current restructuring of earth system science into global sustainability Fig.9.TheTRUCframework(TransformationandResilienceonUrbanCoasts).
actionresearchprovides newopportunitiesforcollaborationon thebasisofnetworkingbetweennetworks.
2.6.Futurechallenges
There are a range of biophysicalconstraints that will make achievingcoastalsustainabilitygoalsoutlinedbyLOICZandFuture Earthchallenging.Duringthe21stcentury,thesebiophysicaland socialconstraintsincludeenergyscarcity,climatechange,theloss ofecosystemservices,thelimitationsofneoclassicaleconomics, andhumansettlementpatterns(e.g.Dayetal.,2014,2016;Halland Klitgaard,2012).Animportantrequirementandchallengeforthe newFutureEarthCoastsprojectistodevelopaframeworkwithin whichconstraintstosustainabledevelopmentcanbeanalysedand addressed in order to be considered in the preparation of sustainabledevelopmentplans. Thereis a compelling need for newtrajectoriesof coastal researchthat transcenddisciplinary boundariesandthebarriersbetweenscience,policyandpracticein ordertofacilitatetransformativechangesnecessarytotransition towardssaferandmoreresilientandsustainablepathways.LOICZ with its global network of researchers and institutions in the natural, social, and humanity sciences is working to support sustainabilityandadaptationtoglobalchangeinthecoastalzone.
Itsoperationsarefeedingintothenextdecade ofEarthsystem researchonglobalsustainability that looks atthe feedbacksof humaninteractionwithnatureand response options. Thenew LOICZ vision is to supporttransformation to a sustainable and resilientfutureforsocietyandnatureonthecoastanddefining whatisandisnotpossible.ThishasalreadybeeninitiatedinLOICZ with the increasing focus on social sciences from an initial biogeochemical outlook. The development of the Future Earth researchplatform(www.futureearth.org)providesnewopportu- nitiesforLOICZtodeliversciencethatismoreintegratedandhas greatersocietalimpact.AsLOICZtransitionstoFutureEarthCoasts, newoverarchingthemeshavebeendesignedtoalignwiththoseof FutureEarth(Cumminsetal.,2014):
Theme 1: dynamic coast, with the objective of improving understandingofthestateofthecoast,especiallyhownature shapescivilization(correspondstothedynamicplanetthemeof futureearth).
Theme2:globaldevelopmentand ourcoast,witha focus on improvedunderstandingofconsequencesforhumanwell-being in relationtohuman exploitationof ecosystem products and services—howhumansharnessandshapenature(corresponds totheglobaldevelopmentthemeoffutureearth).
Theme3:transformationtowardscoastalsustainability,identi- fyingwhatisandisnotpossibleandgovernancepathwaysand processes for transformation in decision-making—how civil society can be empowered to prioritise actions towards sustainability (corresponds to the transformations towards sustainability).
OneofthestrengthsofLOICZhasbeentheextensivelinkagesthat havebeenfosteredwith coastal practitioners. Theseneedto be furtherdevelopedandsupportedonalong-termbasistoensurethat are applied to support the sustainable management of coasts.
Whetherthecollaborationisactualorvirtual(Turneretal.,2010), theywillhavetobemaderesilientenoughtosurvivewiththeir internalresourcesaswellasbeingabletomobilizeexternalfunding.
ConsiderableconsultationandcapacitybuildingacrosstheLOICZ community will be needed with more inclusive, regionally grounded, transdisciplinaryand globallynetworked approaches, inlinewiththeFutureEarthconceptoftransformative,actionable andglobalsustainabilityscience.After25yearsasLOICZtheproject willtransitiontoitsnewtitleofFutureEarthCoastsanddevelopa
newinitiativecalled‘OurCoastalFutures’thatassessesthestateof coastsaroundtheworldandprovidescapabilitybuildingtoolsfor communities to arrest unsustainable practices and translate scientificknowledgetoinformpolicybygovernments.
Acknowledgements
TheauthorsacknowledgethesupportofAhanaLakshmi,Senior Consultant,NCSCM,Chennai,India,inpreparationofthismanu- script. The help and support of the LOICZ IPO (Ellen-Barbe Goldberg and Christiane Hagemann) is greatly appreciated.
Figures were prepared by Jane Hawkey of the Integration &
ApplicationNetwork.ScientificinputsreceivedfromHeathKelsey, oftheIntegration&ApplicationNetwork,UniversityofMarylandis greatlyacknowledged.
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