Klima i Norge 2100

(1)

Klima i Norge 2100

Bakgrunnsmateriale til NOU Klimatilpasning

met.no – Bjerknessenteret – Nansensenteret – Havforskningsinstituttet – NVE September 2009

Offentlig utvalg som utreder samfunnets sårbarhet og tilpasningsbehov som følge av klimaendringer

(2)

!

!!"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0

!"#$%&#&'()*+&,-..

!"#$%&''()"*+%,"-+.*,-./01.2-,)"*,-3"(','$

4'5+-,$.&*$"6+7.(+3*+)8+%.9::;

1*$,<."6./=%(#.#-,)"(+'*+%

>+5"#*?%@.A'$+%.B"'((+'C!"&+%.D%1+,*234&,561)E

!&'"[email protected]&5)&'5.G.H"-(8?7.)+*I'=

J%K##@.H+3"%*+)+'*+'+(.(+%6,L+(+'*+%

J+#(*+'.,.5+''+.%"33=%*+'.#"'.(,*+%+(.=$.$M+'8%&#+(.N%,<.

)=*.#,-5+O+'6,(','$I

P,$&%+'+.+%.Q.=).,##+."''+*.+%.=33$,<.,.5+*.+'#+-*+.*,-N+--+.

Q. 3%=5&(+%*. "6. N=%N"<+%'+I. H+. #"'. $M+'8%&#+(. N%,<. )=*.

#,-5+O+'6,(','$I. RM+##.77768$%&'5%$9':1%1+61)!N=%. +6+'C

*&+--+. 5,$,*"-+. 6+%(M='+%I. S+''-,$(*. *". )+5. T$&%*+#(*. =$.

N=%8+O=-5.(=).+%.$,<.,.*+#(*+'7.6+5.$M+'8%&#I P=%(,5+8,-5+*.+%.N%".%+$'6U%.,.!+%$+'

B+'*+*.N%".V,#,3+5,".W=))='(.

P=*=$%"[email protected]=&-#++3+%

X,(+'(@.W%+"*,6+.W=))='(.G<%,8&*,='.RO"%+G-,#+.9IY

(3)

"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0!!!

"

^!!

Klima i Norge 2100

Bakgrunnsmateriale til NOU Klimatilpassing

Inger Hanssen-Bauer

¹

(redaktør) Helge Drange

^2,3

Eirik J Førland

¹

Lars A Roald

⁵

Knut Yngve Børsheim

^4,3

Hege Hisdal

⁵

Deborah Lawrence

⁵

Atle Nesje

^2,3

Stein Sandven

⁶

Asgeir Sorteberg

^2,3

Svein Sundby

^4,3

Kristian Vasskog

³

Bjørn Ådlandsvik

^4,3

ZE.[+*+=%=-=$,(#.,'(*,*&<\.9E.1',6+%(,*+*+*.,.!+%$+'\.]E.!M+%#'+((+'*+%+*.N=%.#-,)"N=%(#.','$\..

^E.B"6N=%(#','$(,'(*,*&<+*\.YE./=%$+(.6"((5%"$(C.=$.+'+%$,5,%+#*=%"*\._E./"'(+'(+'*+%+*.N=%.

),-M?.=$.`+%')a-,'$

/+00+&)%11()2+0&3#2+)+3&3($&45"*+)6&

B"'((+'C!"&+%7.AI7.BI.H%"'$+7.4IbI.P?%-"'57.XIGI.>="-57.2IcI.!?%(O+,)7.BI.B,(5"-7.HI.X"d%+'L+7.

GI./+(M+7.RI.R"'56+'7.GI.R=%*+8+%$7.RI.R&'58K7.2I.S"((#=$.=$.!I.e5-"'5(6,#.D9::;E@.#$%&'!%!

()*+,!-.//6!;'8+*<11:&'5,*%'$,!5%$!(=>!#$%&'5%$9$'::%1+7./=%(#.#-,)"(+'*+%7.(+3*+)8+%.9::;7.

0(-=

(4)

#

!!"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0

(5)

"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0!!!

$

^!!

Innhold

P=%=%5.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII f ZI.A''-+5','$.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII ; 9I.F+'+%+--.(,%#&-"(M='.=$.5"$+'(.#-,)".IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII ZZ . 9IZ.R,%#&-"(M='.,.-&g.=$.O"6.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII Z9 . 9I9.2-,)".IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII Z_

. 9I].BK5%=-=$,h(#%+5.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII 9Y ]I.2-,)"+'5%,'$+%.O,<,-.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII 9;

. ]IZ.G*)=(NU%+#-,)".,.*,5+'.)+5.)a-,'$+%.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII ]:

. ]I9.BK5%=-=$,h(#%+5.,.*,5+'.)+5.)a-,'$+%.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII ];

. ]I].B"6#-,)".,.*,5+'.)+5.)a-,'$+%IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII ^]

. ]I^.2"%"#*+%,(*,(#+.+'5%,'$+%.,.5+'."%#*,(#+.(M?,(+'.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII ^f . ]IY.2-,)"6"%,"(M='+%.+<+%.(,(*+.,(*,5.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII YZ

^I.2-,)"&*6,#-,'$.,.'U%.N=%*,5.=$.'U%.N%")*,5.DZ;i:Q9:]:E.IIIIIIIIIIIIIII Yi . ^IZ.X&g*+)3+%"*&%.Z;f;Q9::i.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII Y;

. ^I9.S+#(*(+(='$.Z;f;Q9::iIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII _:

. Î].PK%,'$($%"55"$+%.Z;f;Q9::i.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII _Z . Î^.S"%)+.5?$'.Z;f;Q9::i.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII _9 . ÎY.e%(C.=$.a%(*,5('+58?%.Z;f;Q9::i.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII _]

. ^I_.4<5?$'(.'+58?%.Z;f;Q9::i.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII _^

. ^If.BK5%=-=$,(#+.N=%O=-5.Z;f;Q9::i.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII _Y . ^Ii.2-,)"&*6,#-,'$.N%").*,-.9:]:.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII _i YI.>+$,='"-+.#-,)"N%")(#%,6','$+%.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII _;

. YIZ.[=5+--$%&''-"$.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII fZ . YI9.P%")(#%,6','$+%."6."*)=(NU%+#-,)".IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII f^

. YI].P%")(#%,6','$+%."6.OK5%=-=$,h(#%+5.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII ;_

. YI^.P%")(#%,6','$+%.N=%.O"6+*.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII Z:i . YIY.P%")*,5,$.O"6',6a(*,$','$.,.'=%(#+.#K(*#=))&'+%.IIIIIIIIIII ZZY _I.S&%5+%,'$.=$.8%&#."6.5+.&-,#+.#-,)"N%")(#%,6','$+'+.IIIIIIIIIIIIII Z9^

. _IZ.1(,##+%O+*.#'K<+*.*,-.$-=8"-+.

. . =$.%+$,='"-+.#-,)"N%")(#%,6','$+%.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII Z9^

. _I9.G'8+N"-,'$+%.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII Z9i G33+'5,j.GZ.D)=5+--+%.Q.5K'"),(#.+'(+)8-+E.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII Z9;

G33+'5,j.G9.D)=5+--+%.Q.(*"*,(*,(#.+'(+)8-+E.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII Z]Z 06+%(,#*.=6+%.T$&%+%.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII Z]]

06+%(,#*.=6+%.*"8+--+%.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII Z]Y

>+N+%+%*.-,<+%"*&%.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII Z]_

0%5C.=$.8+$%+3(N=%#-"%,'$+%.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII Z^]

B=6+5N=%N"<+%'+.IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII Z^_

(6)

%

!!"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0

(7)

"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0!!!

&

^!!

Forord

0335%"$($,6+%.=$.O=6+5T'"'(,+%,'$(#,-5+.N=%.5+''+.%"33=%*+'.+%./01.

2-,)"*,-3"(','$I.B=6+5N=%N"<+%'+(.,'(*,*&(M='+%.O"%.,),5-+%*,5.=$(a.8,5%"<.

)+5.+$+',''("*(7.=$.'=+'."6."'"-K(+'+.(=).,''$a%.,.%"33=%*+'.O"%.8-,<.&*N?%*.

(=).+'.5+-."6./=%W-,).3%=(M+#*+*I.>"33=%*+'.8K$$+%.,.*,--+$$.3a.3&8-,(+%*+.

N=%(#','$(%+(&-*"*+%.N%".+'.%+##+."'5%+.3%=(M+#*+%.O6=%"6.5+.6,#*,$(*+.+%.W4R7.

F+=4j*%+)+7./=%GWAG7./=%k"(*7.k>1H4/W4.=$.>+$W-,)I...

H+*.+%.l+%+.+''.O=6+5N=%N"<+%'+.(=).O"%.8,5%"<.*,-.5+''+.%"33=%*+'I.S,.6,-.

*"##+.N=%.8,5%"$7.T$&%+%.=$.#='(*%&#*,6+.,''(3,--.N%"@.

m. G''+.!M&'+7.W"%,'.G'5+%((='.H"O-7.4K(*+,'.b"'(+'7.G"$+.k"&(.=$.G($+,%.

R=%*+8+%$.6+5.!M+%#'+((+'*+%+*

m. >"()&(.!+'+(*"57.G',*".S+%3+.HK%%5"-7.b"'.4%,#.B"&$+'7.2+*,-.A("#(+'7.

J%='5.A6+%(+'7.X"%(.k+<+%.>?+57.H"$%&'.S,#O")"%.RLO&-+%7.J=%,--.4'$+'C R#"&$+'7.nK6,'5./=%5-,.=$.0-+.4,'"%.J6+,*=.6+5.[+*+=%=-=$,(#.,'(*,*&<

m. 2"--+.2%='O=-).6+5./=%$+(.F+=*+#',(#+.A'(*,*&<

m. B"'(.J?))+%6,#.6+5./=%(#.,'(*,*&<.N=%.'"*&%N=%(#','$.

P=%N"<+%'+.6,-.=$(a.*"##+.F&5)&'5.H"-(8?7.(=).+%."'(6"%-,$.N=%.%"33=%*+'(.

&*(++'5+7.=$.(=).&*%+<+-,$.O"%.=335"*+%*.*+#(*.=$.T$&%+%.,.O+'O=-5.*,-.(*"5,$.

'K+.=$.N=%8+5%+5+.6+%(M='+%I

0(-=7.(+3*+)8+%.9::;

A'$+%.B"'((+'C!"&+%

(8)

'

!!"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0

(9)

"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0!!!

(

^!!

1. Innledning

A.&*$"'$(3&'#*+*.(#"-.%"33=%*+'.Q.3a.+'.N=%C (*a+-,$.)a*+.Q.=33(&))+%+.5+'.#&''(#"3.6,.

'a.O"%.=).O6".(-"$(.#-,)".6,.,./=%$+.=$.6a%+.

'U%=)%a5+%.#"'.N=%6+'*+.a.)a<+.*,-3"((+.=((.

$M+''=). 5+*. 9ZI. a%O&'5%+*I. F%&''-"$+*. N=%.

5+''+.#&''(#"3+'.-,$$+%.,..5+*."-*.6+(+'*-,$+.

,. #-,)"N%")(#%,6','$+'+. (=). +%. 3%+(+'*+%*.

,. %"33=%*+'+. N%". P/(. #-,)"3"'+-7. =$. (U%-,$. ,.

5+'. N+%(#+(*+. %"33=%*+'. DAkWW7. 9::fEI. P=%. a.

6&%5+%+.O6".+6+'*&+--+.N%")*,5,$+.#-,)"+'5C

%,'$+%. #"'. 8+*K7. +%. 5+*. ,),5-+%*,5. 6,#*,$. a. (+.

(-,#+.+'5%,'$+%.,.%+-"(M='.*,-.5+*.#-,)"+*.6,.O"%.

,. 5"$. Q. =$. 5+. #-,)"6"%,"(M='+'+. =$. C+'5%,'C

$+'+.6,.O"%.=33-+65.*,5-,$+%+I.A.5+'.$%"5.5"C

$+'(.(")N&''.+%.#-,)"*,-3"((+*7.+%.5+*.'+)-,$.

"'"-K(+%."6.O,(*=%,(#+.#-,)"=8(+%6"(M='+%7.=$.

,. (U%-,$. $%"5. #-,)"=8(+%6"(M='+%. N%". 3+%,=C 5+'.Z;_ZQ;:7.5,((+.*,-3"(','$+'+.+%.8"(+%*.3aI.

H+''+. %"33=%*+'. $,%. 5+%N=%. N?%(*. +'. $+'+%+--.

8+(#%,6+-(+. "6. #-,)"+*. ,. /=%$+. =$. 6a%+. 'U%C

=)%a5+%.D#"3,<+-.9E7.=$.5+%+<+%.+'.8+(#%,6+-C (+."6.O,(*=%,(#.#-,)"&*6,#-,'$.D#"3,<+-.]EI . 4<+%.?'(#+.N%".&*6"-$+*.O"%.6,.N=#&(+%*.3a.

*%+.*,5(3+%,=5+%.,.8+(#%,6+-(+'."6.N%")*,5(#-,C )"@.H+.'U%)+(*+.Z:Q9:.a%+'+7.(")*.+'.3+%,=C 5+.N%").)=*.),5*+'.=$.+'.3+%,=5+.N%").)=*.

(-&<+'."6.5+*.9ZI.a%O&'5%+*I.H+'.N?%(*+.3+%,=C 5+'.+%.8+O"'5-+*.N=%.(+$.(+-6.,.#"3,<+-.^I.A.+*.

(a.#=%*.*,5(3+%(3+#*,6.6,-.5+.+'5%,'$+'+.(=).

8+%+$'+(.(=).N?-$+."6.)+''+(#+-,$.#-,)"3aC 6,%#','$7.6U%+.()a.,.N=%O=-5.*,-.'"*&%-,$+.6"%,C

"(M='+%.N%".+*.a%.*,-.+*."''+*I.S,.O"%.5+%N=%.,##+.

N&''+*. 5+*. *M+'-,$. a. 8+'K<+. N%")(#%,6','$+%.

8"(+%*. 3a. #-,)")=5+--+%. (=). $%&''-"$. N=%. a.

8+(#%,6+. #-,)"+*. ,. 5+'. 'U%+. N%")*,5I. A(*+5+'.

+%.5+*.,.#"3,<+-.^.$M=%*."'"-K(+%."6.*%+'5+%.=$.

6"%,"(M='+%. ,. -?3+*. "6. 5+. (,(*+. ^:QY:. a%I. P=%.

#=%*(,#*,$+. 3-"'-+$$,'$(N=%)a-. "'8+N"-+(. "*.

%+(&-*"*+%. N%". 5,((+. "'"-K(+'+. 8+'K<+(7. +6+'C

*&+-*. ,. #=)8,'"(M='. )+5. 6&%5+%,'$+%. "6. (,$C '"-+'+.,.)=5+--8"(+%*+.#-,)"N%")(#%,6','$+%I...

. 2-,)"N%")(#%,6','$+%.6,5+%+.&*=6+%.,.a%C O&'5%+*.+%.3%+(+'*+%*.,.#"3,<+-.YI.H+<+.+%.8+C

%+$','$+%.8"(+%*.3a.$-=8"-+.#-,)")=5+--+%7.=$.

5+.+%.8+O+g+*.)+5.8+*K5+-,$.&(,##+%O+*I.H+*.

6"%.+*.&<%K#*.?'(#+.N%".&*6"-$+*."*.5+''+.%"3C 3=%*+'.(#"-.(#,((+%+.*%+.N=%(#M+--,$+.#-,)"N%")C (#%,6','$+%.N%").)=*.(-&<+'."6.a%O&'5%+*@."E.

+'.o-"6.N%")(#%,6','$p.(=).N=%&*(+<+%."*.5+'.

$-=8"-+. ),55+-*+)3+%"*&%+'. ,##+. ?#+%. )+5.

)+%. +''. 9qrW. ,. N=%O=-5. *,-. *+)3+%"*&%',6a+*.

=)#%,'$. a%. Z;::7. 8E. +'. o),55+-(. N%")(#%,6C ','$p.=$.LE.+'.oO?K.N%")(#%,6','$p.%+-"*+%*.*,-.

(3+''+*.,.+#(,(*+%+'5+.#-,)"N%")(#%,6','$+%I . H+*.+%.,##+.=33-"$*.O6=%5"'.5+''+.=33C

$"6+'. 8+(*. #"'. -?(+(I. /=+. "6. &(,##+%O+*+'. ,.

Denne rapporten er skrevet på oppdrag fra klimatilpasningsutvalget, et offentlig ut-

valg som ble oppnevnt av regjeringen i desember 2008. Utvalget skal utrede samfun-

nets sårbarhet og tilpasningsbehov som følge av klimaendringer. Formålet med denne

rapporten er å gi utvalget et felles klimavitenskaplig grunnlag for dets vurderinger av

sårbarhet og behov for tilpasning. Rapporten omfatter – i samsvar med utvalgets øns-

ker – både atmosfæreklima, havklima inkludert sjøis, hydrologiske forhold inkludert

flom, og permafrost. Skredforhold er også omtalt i rapporten, selv om de strengt tatt

ikke hører inn under klima.

(10)

)*

!!"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0

#-,)"N%")(#%,6','$+'+. (#K-5+(. &(,##+%O+*. ,.

(L+'"%,=+'+. N=%. N%")*,5,$+. )+''+(#+(#"3*+.

&*(-,33I.!%&#."6.N=%(#M+--,$+.&*(-,33((L+'"%,=C +%.#"'.8+-K(+.5+''+.&(,##+%O+*+'I.A.*,--+$$.)a.

6,. ,),5-+%*,5. N=%O=-5+. =((. *,-. &(,##+%O+*. (=).

(#K-5+(.*=."'5%+.N=%O=-5@

. ZE. S,. #"'. "-5%,. 8+(#%,6+. #-,)"(K(*+)+*.

3+%N+#*7. 5+-(. N=%5,. 6,. O"%. 8+$%+'(+*. %+$'+C )"(#,'#"3"(,*+*7.5+-(.N=%5,.6,.,##+.#M+''+%.#-,C )"(K(*+)+*.N&--(*+'5,$I.9E.A.*,--+$$.*,-.5+.)+'C '+(#+(#"3*+. #-,)"+'5%,'$+'+. 6,-. 5+*. 6U%+.

'"*&%-,$+.#-,)"+'5%,'$+%.=$.C6"%,"(M='+%.=$(a.

,.N%")*,5+'I

. R"))+'-,$','$+%. "6. #-,)")=5+--(,)&C -+%,'$+%. N=%. 5+*. 9:I. a%O&'5%+*. =$. =8(+%6+%*.

#-,)". O"%. 6,(*. "*. ),55+-6+%5,+'+. "6. %+(&-*"C

*+%. N%". )"'$+. )=5+--8+%+$','$+%. =g+. -,$$+%.

'U%)+%+. =8(+%6+%*. #-,)". +''. %+(&-*"*+'+. N%".

+'.+'#+-*.#-,)")=5+--+%,'$I.A.*,--+$$.$,%.(")C )+'(*,--,'$+%."6.%+(&-*"*+%.N%".)"'$+.)=5+--C

#M?%,'$+%.)&-,$O+*.N=%.a."'(-a.&(,##+%O+*+'.,.

%+(&-*"*+'+I. ka. 5+''+. 8"#$%&''. O"%. 6,. ,. (*=%.

$%"5.6"-$*.a.8"(+%+.#"3,<+-.Y.3a.+'.("))+'C (*,--,'$. "6. )+(*. )&-,$. "6. 5+*. (=). +#(,(*+%+%.

"6. #-,)"N%")(#%,6','$+%. N=%. /=%$+I. P=%. 6"C

%,"8-+%.5+%.)"'$+.N%")(#%,6','$+%.+#(,(*+%+%7.

O"%.6,.5+T'+%*.o),55+-(p.N%")(#%,6','$.(=).

),55+-6+%5,+%."6.5,((+7.)+'(.-"6.DO?KE.N%")C (#%,6','$.O"%.8-,<.5+T'+%*.(-,#."*.8"%+.Z."6.Z:.

N%")(#%,6','$+%.+%.-"6+%+.DO?K+%+EI.A.*,--+$$.*,-.

("))+'(*,--,'$+'+. "6. )"'$+. N%")(#%,6','C

$+%7.8+'K<+%.6,.&*6"-$*+.o+#(+)3+-N%")(#%,6C ','$+%p.*,-.a.$a.)+%.,.5+*"-M+%7.N=%.+#(+)3+-.'a%.

5+*.$M+-5+%.OK5%=-=$,(#+.N=%O=-5I

. 2-,)"*,-3"(','$(&*6"-$+*. ?'(#+*. a. Na.

("''(K'-,$O+*+%. #'K<+*. *,-. 5+. N=%(#M+--,$+.

N%")(#%,6','$+'+I.H+*.+%.3%=8-+)"*,(#7.8-"'*.

"''+*. N=%5,. ("''(K'-,$O+*+'. N=%. 5+. &-,#+. &*C (-,33((L+'"%,=+'+. ,##+. +%. =33$,<. =$. N=%5,. 6,.

,##+. #M+''+%. ("''(K'-,$O+*(N=%5+-,'$+'. 'a%.

5+*.$M+-5+%.*,5(&*6,#-,'$+'."6.'"*&%-,$+.#-,)"C 3a5%,6I.A.*,--+$$.6+*.6,."*.#-,)")=5+--+'+.,##+.

+%.3+%N+#*+I

. P=%. a. ,)?*+#=))+. &*6"-$+*(. ?'(#+. O"%.

6,.,.#"3,<+-._.N=%(?#*.a.8+-K(+.("''(K'-,$O+*(C (3?%()a-+*.&*.N%".5+'.6,*+'.6,.'a.O"%7.=$.6,.O"%.

$,<."'8+N"-,'$+%.=).8%&#."6.#-,)"N%")(#%,6C ','$+'+.&*.N%".5+<+I.S,.6,-.3%+(,(+%+."*.6,5+%+.

N=%(#','$(,''("*(.+%.6,#*,$.N=%.a.?#+.N=%(*a+-C (+'. N=%. #-,)"(K(*+)+*7. 8a5+. )+5. *"'#+. 3a. a.

),'#+.&(,##+%O+*+'.5+%.5+*.+%.)&-,$7.=$.?#+.

$%&''-"$+*. N=%. a. #=))+. )+5. %+"-,(*,(#+. "'C (-"$. N=%. ("''(K'-,$O+*+'. "6. N=%(#M+--,$+. &*C N"--I.P=%(#','$(,''("*(.)+5.*"'#+.3a.a.#'K<+.

("''(K'-,$O+*. *,-. N=%(#M+--,$+. &*(-,33((L+'"C

%,=+%. +%. =$(a. 6,#*,$. )+5. O+'(K'. *,-. 5+*. (,(*+.

3&'#*+*I....

. H+''+. %"33=%*+'. +%. 8"(+%*. 3a. 3&8-,(+%*.

)"*+%,"-+I./a%.5+*.$M+-5+%.-=#"-+.=$.%+$,='"-+.

"'"-K(+C.=$.)=5+--%+(&-*"*+%7.+%.)K+.8"%+.3&C 8-,(+%*. ,. N=%(#','$(%"33=%*+%I. e%("#+'. +%. "*.

%+(&-*"*+%. "6. (-,#+. &'5+%(?#+-(+%. (*=%*. (+<. +%.

"6. ,'*+%+((+. N=%. +*. 8+$%+'(+*. 3&8-,#&)I. G--+.

)+*=5+8+(#%,6+-(+%. +%. ,),5-+%*,5. 3&8-,(+%*. ,.

,'*+%'"(M='"-+.*,5((#%,g+%.)+5.N"$N+--+6&%5+C

%,'$I

(11)

"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0!!!

))

^!!

2. Generell sirkulasjon og dagens klima

Sammendrag

H+. '"*&%-,$+. #-,)"6"%,"(M='+'+. ,. /=%$+. +%.

8+*K5+-,$+7. 8a5+. ,. *,5. =$. $+=$%"T(#I. 2-,C )"+*. O+%. +%. %+-"*,6*. 6"%)*. ,. N=%O=-5. *,-. "'C 5%+.(*+5+%.3a.("))+.8%+55+$%"5.3a.$%&''.

"6.-&gC.=$.O"6(*%?))+%I.S"%,"(M='+%.,.5,((+.

(*%?)','$(N=%O=-5+'+. $,%. (*=%+. &*(-"$. ,. -=C

#"-*.#-,)"I.

Temperatur

e%(),55+-*+)3+%"*&%+'.N=%./=%$+.+%.L".sZ.

?W7.)+'.6"%,+%+%.N%".s_.?W.3a.#K(*+'."6.S+(*C -"'5+*.*,-.-"6+%+.+''.Q^.?W.,.O?K`+--+*I . S+(*-"'5+*.O"%.=33*,-.99Y.5"$+%(.*+)3+C

%".*&%8+(*+)*. 6+#(*(+(='$7. )+'(. 6+#(*C (+(='$+'.,.O?K`+--+*.=$.3a.5+-+%."6.S"%"'C

$+%O"-6?K".+%.3a.&'5+%.f:.5"$+%I

. R&))+'. "6. NK%,'$($%"55"$+%. D(=). +%.

+*.)a-.N=%.+'+%$,8+O=6+*.*,-.,''+'5?%(.=33C 6"%),'$E.6"%,+%+%.N%".=6+%._:::.,.,'5%+.(*%?#.

"6. n(*-"'5+*7. O?K`+--+*. =$. ,'5%+. 5+-+%. "6.

/=%5C/=%$+7. *,-. &'5+%. ]:::. K<+%(*. 3a. #K(C

*+'."6.S+(*-"'5+*I

. H+*. +%. l+(*. o6"%)+. 5?$'p. D5?$'. )+5.

),55+-*+)3+%"*&%. =6+%. 9:.?WE. ,. -"6+%+-,$C

$+'5+.=)%a5+%.'U%.0(-=`=%5+'I

Nedbør og hydrologi

FM+''=)(',<-,$.a%('+58?%.N=%./=%$+.+%.8+C

%+$'+*. *,-. Z^i_. ))I. G6. 5+<+. "'(-a(. "*. ]^_.

)). N=%5")3+%7. )+'(. ZZ^:. )). $a%. *,-. "6C

%+'','$I

. n6%+. F&58%"'5(5"-+'. =$. ,'5%+. J%=)(.

+%.*?%%+(*.D),'5%+.+''.]::.)).)a-*.a%('+5C 8?%E7. )+'(. ),5*%+. (*%?#. "6. S+(*-"'5+*. +%.

6a*+(*.D=6+%.Y:::.)).a%('+58?%.+'#+-*+.(*+C 5+%EI

. 4<5?$'(. '+58?%6+%5,. (=). ,. $M+''=)C (',<.=6+%(#%,5+(.]Q^.$"'$+%.3+%.a%7.6"%,+%+%.

N%".&'5+%.ZY.)).,.'+58?%N"<,$+.=)%a5+%.*,-.

L"I.ZY:.)).,.5+.)+(*.'+58?%%,#+.=)%a5+'+.

3a.S+(*-"'5+*I.

. H+*. +%. (*?%(*. a%("6%+'','$. 6+5. e-N=*C 8%++'. DL". Y^::. ))E7. =$. ),'(*. ,. ?6%+. F&5C 8%"'5(5"-+'.DL"I.]Y:.))EI

. 0(-=`=%5+'7.R?%-"'5+*.=$.P=(+'O"-6?K".

O"%. O?K+(*. a%-,$. N=%5")3','$. D+(*,)+%*. *,-.

=6+%.Y::.))EI.!%+=)%a5+'+.,.O?K`+--+*.O"%.

-"6+(*.D%&'5*.Y:.))EI

. S"'',''O=-5+*. ,. )"#(,)"-. a%-,$. ('?C )+'$5+.3a.8"##+'.6"%,+%+%.N%".'U%.'&--.*,-.

)+%.+''.]:::.))I

. 2K(*'U%+.'+58?%N+-*.O"%.,.$M+''=)(',<.

8"%+. '=+'. Na. 5"$+%. ,. a%+*. )+5. ('?5+##+7.

O?K`+--+*. +%. 5+#*. "6. ('?. =6+%. ]::. 5"$+%. ,.

a%+*7.=$.,.8%+=)%a5+%.+%.5+*."--*,5.('?h,(I

(12)

)!

!!"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0

2.1 Sirkulasjon i luft og hav

2.1.1 Atmosfæresirkulasjon

G*)=(NU%+'(. (*=%(*,-*+. (,%#&-"(M='. 5%,6+(. "6.

'+<=. =336"%),'$. ,. *%=3+'+. =$. '+<=. "6#M?C -,'$. 6+5. 3=-+'+I. H+<+. #=)3+'(+%+(. 6+5. "*.

5+*.(*%?))+%.6"%)+.,.-&g.=$.O"6.N%".*%=3+'+.

)=*. 3=-+'+I. H+''+. *%"'(3=%*+'. 3a6,%#+(. "6.

8-"'*."''+*.M=%5%=*"(M='.=$.*=3=$%"TI.4'.(*=%.

5+-."6.6"%)+*%"'(3=%*+'.+%.#'K<+*.*,-.-"6C.=$.

O?K*%K##.3a.),5-+%+.8%+55+$%"5+%I.H+%N=%.+%.

-"6C. =$. O?K*%K##+'+. "6$M?%+'5+. N=%. M=%5+'(.

*+)3+%"*&%N=%5+-,'$I.

. A. *,--+$$. +%. -"6C. =$. O?K*%K##+'+. (*K%+'5+.

N=%.-=#"-*.6U%.=$.#-,)"I.4'.-,*+'.)+'.(K(*+)"C

*,(#.+'5%,'$.,.&*(*%+#','$7.,'*+'(,*+*.+--+%.8"'+.

*,-.-"6C.=$.O?K*%K##+'+.6,-.N?%+.*,-.(K(*+)"*,(#+.

+'5%,'$+%.,.5+*.-=#"-+.#-,)"I.

. /=%5C4&%=3".-,$$+%.,.+'.(='+.5+%.5+.(*=%C (*,-*+.6,'5N=%O=-5.+%.5=),'+%*."6.o6+(*"6,'5(C 8+-*+*pI.H+<+.+%.#M+'*.(=).=)%a5+*.O6=%.-"6C

*%K##. =33(*a%. =$. N=%3-"'*+%. (+$. 6,'*+%(*,57.

*K3,(#.6+(*=6+%.N%".?(*#K(*+'."6./=%5CG)+%,C

#".=6+%.G*-"'*+%O"6+*.*,-.4&%=3".,.?(*I.

. 4'. 6"'-,$. 8%&#*. ,'5,#"*=%. 3a. (*K%#+'. *,-.

6+(*"6,'5(N+-*+*.,.6a%+.=)%a5+%.+%.,'5+#(+'.N=%.

5+'.'=%5C"*-"'*,(#+.=(L,--"(M='+'7./G0.DNI+#(I.

B&%%+--7.Z;;YEI./G0.O"%.-+'$+.6U%*.#M+'*.(=).

+'.6,#*,$.5+-."6.5+'."*)=(NU%,(#+.6"%,"8,-,*+C

*+'.=6+%.4&%=3"I.R+-6+./G0C,'5+#(+'.8+(#%,C 6+%. *%K##N=%(#M+--+'. )+--=). -"6*%K##+*. 6+5.

A(-"'5.=$.O?K*%K##+*.6+5.Gt=%+'+I./a%.8+$$+.

5,((+. *%K##(K(*+)+'+. +%. (*+%#+. DO?K+%+. +''.

'=%)"-*.-&g*%K##.6+5.Gt=%+'+.=$.-"6+%+.+''.

'=%)"-*.-&g*%K##.6+5.A(-"'5E7.+%./G0C,'5+#C (+'.O?KI./a%.8+$$+.*%K##(K(*+)+'+.+%.(6"#+7.

+%.,'5+#(+'.-"6I.4'.O?K./G0C,'5+#(.8+*K%."*.

6+(*"6,'5(N+-*+*. +%. (*+%#+%+. +''. '=%)"-*\. +'.

-"6.,'5+#(."*.5+*.+%.(6"#+%+I

@%+<*!-6.6.

(A=!B%15,*%1C,8:!D*'!.E-/F5'$$,5!5%$!C,:,&3,*!

-//E!"D*'!G$%&'5,!H,:,'*I2!>1%5J!2K9LMM7776I*<6

<,'6'I6<8MI*<MC'5'M1')625&06!@%+<*,1!B%:,*!'BB%8!

D*'!1)*&'$9,*%)C,1!.NO.PN/6

(13)

"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0!!!

)"

^!!

. A''lK*+-(+'./G0.O"%.3a.#-,)"+*.,./=%$+7.

+%.)+(*.&*3%+$+*.=).6,'*+%+'7.)+'.#"'.$M+'C T''+(.*,-."--+.*,5+%."6.a%+*I.A.6,'*%+%.)+5.O?K.

/G0C,'5+#(.8%,'$+%.+*.N=%(*+%#+*.6+(*"6,'5(C N+-*.),-5+.=$.N&#*,$+.-&g)"((+%.,''.=6+%.(*=%+.

5+-+%."6./=%5C4&%=3"I.H+*.+%.=$(a.+'.*+'5+'(.

*,-. )+%. ,'*+'(+. =$. OK33,$+. (*=%)+%. ,. '=%(#+.

O"6=)%a5+%.,.(-,#+.(,*&"(M='+%I./G0C,'5+#(+'.

6"%.3a.(,<.-"6+(*+.3a.Z;_:C*"--+*.D(+.T$&%.9IZIZE7.

)+'(.5+*.%&'5*.Z;;:.6"%.+'.3+%,=5+.)+5.O?K.

/G0C,'5+#(I

. 2-,)"+*.,./=%$+.+%.(*+%#*.3a6,%#+*."6.5+*.

(*=%(*,-*+."*)=(NU%,(#+.(,%#&-"(M='()?'(*+%+*I.

P,$&%.9IZI9".6,(+%."*.5+*.6+5.6,'5.N%".(?%?(*.+%.

)+(*.'+58?%.3a.R?%C.=$.n(*-"'5+*.=$.-,*+.'+5C 8?%.3a.S+(*-"'5+*I.!,-5+*.+%.=)('&55.6+5.6,'5.

N%". (?%6+(*. DT$&%. 9IZI98EI. S+5. 5+''+. 6,'5%+*C ','$+'.+%.5+*.-,*+.'+58?%.3a.n(*-"'5+*7.)+'(.

5+*.+%.(*=%.'+58?%OK33,$O+*.=$.(*=%+.'+58?%C )+'$5+%.,.),5*%+.(*%?#."6.S+(*-"'5+*I.P,$&%+'.

,--&(*%+%+%. "*. +'. -,*+'. 5%+,','$. ,. 6,'5)?'(*+C

%+*.=6+%./=%$+.#"'.$,.8+*K5+-,$+.N=%(#M+--+%.,.

'+58?%)+'$5+.=$.CN=%5+-,'$.=6+%.-"'5+*.6a%*I.

P?-$+-,$.6,-.+6+'*&+--+.N%")*,5,$+.+'5%,'$+%.,.

"*)=(NU%+(,%#&-"(M='+'. #&''+. 3a6,%#+. /=%C

$+(.#-,)"&*6,#-,'$.,.(*=%.$%"5I.H+<+.+%.5,(#&C

*+%*.,.#"3,<+-.YI.

. H+*.8?%.=$(a.'+6'+(."*.+'5%,'$+%.,."*)=C (NU%+(,%#&-"(M='+'.3a6,%#+%.O"6(,%#&-"(M='+'.

Q. =$. 6,(+. 6+%("I. H+<+. +%. 8+(#%+6+*. ,. #"3,<+-.

]I]I

@%+<*!-6.6- (,C3Q*2R99%+2,5!

"B,1:5*,!8'*50!)+!

&%C$,*,!1,C3Q*F

&,1+C,!"&&MCQ+10!

B,C!:5)*:5%$5!B%1C*,5F 1%1+!D*'!22B6!:Q*Q:5!

"5)!QB,*:5,!8'*50!)+!

:Q*B,:5!"5)!1,C,*:5,06

(14)

)#

!!"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0 2.1.2 Havsirkulasjon

B=6+5*%+##+'+.6+5.O"6#-,)"+*.,.5+*.'=%5-,$+.

G*-"'*+%O"6+*.=$.5+.'=%5,(#+.O"6.+%.'=%5$aC +'5+.*%"'(3=%*."6.6"%)+.=$.("-*+.6"'')"((+%.,.

5+.?6+%(*+.Y::.)+*+%'+."6.O"6+*.,.?(*.=$.(?%$aC +'5+.*%"'(3=%*."6.#"-5+.=$.N+%(#+.6"'')"((+%.

,.5K3+*.=$.,.6+(*I

. H+.6"%)+.=$.("-*+.6"'')"((+'+.#=))+%.

N%". F=-N(*%?))+'. =$. N=%-+'$+-(+'. "6. 5+''+7.

#M+'*. (=). G*-"'*+%O"6(*%?).)+'I. [+--=). A(C -"'57. PU%?K+'+. =$. R#=<-"'5. (*%?))+%. 5+*.

'=%5=6+%. )+--=). i. =$. ;. ),--,='+%. #&8,##C )+*+%.6"%)*.=$.("-*."*-"'*+%O"6(6"''.3+%.(+C

#&'57.+--+%.iQ;.R6.Du.(6+%5%&37.5+%.Z.R6.u.Z:_.

)^].3+%.(+#&'5EI.J,-.("))+'-,$','$.+%.(")-+*.

"6%+'','$.N%"."--+.6+%5+'(.+-6+%.3a.%&'5*.Z79.

(6+%5%&3I.H+*.+%.5+%N=%.(*=%+.)+'$5+%.6"%)*.

=$.("-*.6"''.(=).(*%?))+%.,''.,.5+.'=%5,(#+.

O"6I. H+''+. 6"%)+#,-5+'. D(")*. 'U%,'$((*=NC N+'+.5+'.8%,'$+%.)+5.(+$E.+%.(U%5+-+(.6,#*,$.

N=%. 5+. )"%,'+. ?#=(K(*+)+'+. ,. /=%(#+O"6+*.

=$.!"%+'*(O"6+*I.H+'.$M?%."*.O+-+.'=%(#+#K(C

*+'.=$.+'.(*=%.5+-."6.!"%+'*(O"6+*.+%.,(N%,<.=).

6,'*+%+'7. =$. 5+'. 3a6,%#+%. -&g*+)3+%"*&%+'. ,.

=)%a5+*7.=$.5".(U%-,$.N=%.#K(*'U%+.=)%a5+%I . A''(*%?)','$+'. "6. "*-"'*+%O"6(6"''. *,-.

5+.'=%5,(#+.O"6.+%.=)*%+'*.M+6'*.N=%5+-*.)+-C

-=). O6+%. (,5+. "6. PU%?K+'+. =$. (*%+##+%. (+$.

=6+%.5+.?6+%(*+.Y::Q_::.)+*+%'+."6.6"''(?KC -+'I. e%(),5-+*. *+)3+%"*&%. 6+5. PU%?K+'+. N=%.

5+.?6+%(*+.9::.)+*+%."6.6"''(?K-+'.+%.%&'5*.

;qrW7.=$.("-*O=-5,$O+*+'.+%.L,%#".]Y7].3%=),-C -+. DP&%+6,#. )IlI7. 9::9EI. !a5+. *+)3+%"*&%. =$.

("-*O=-5,$O+*. "6*"%. +<+%(=). 6"'')"((+'+.

(*%?))+%. '=%5=6+%. -"'$(. '=%(#+#K(*+'7. (-,#.

"*.a%(),5-+*.*+)3+%"*&%.-"'$(.2=-"(',<+*.,.!"C

%+'*(O"6+*.+%.3a.%&'5*.^.rW.DT$&%.]I]I9EI.

. 2=)8,'"(M='+'. "6. 6"%)+. *%"'(3=%*+%*. ,.

O"6+*.=$.,."*)=(NU%+'7.5+'.(,(*+.,.(U%-,$.$%"5.

#'K<+*.*,-.6+(*"6,'5(8+-*+*.6,'*+%(*,57.N?%+%.*,-.

"*.5+*.#K(*'U%+./=%$+.=$.O"6=)%a5+'+.&*+'C N=%. O"%. +'. 6,'*+%*+)3+%"*&%. (=). +%. N%". Z:. *,-.

)+%.+''.9:.$%"5+%.O?K+%+.+''.),55+-*+)3+C

%"*&%+'.N=%.*,-(6"%+'5+.8%+55+$%"5.N=%.M=%5+'7.

(+.T$&%.9IZI]I.

. H+*. +%. ,##+. )&-,$. a. +'*K5,$. *"--N+(*+. 5+*.

%+-"*,6+. 8,5%"$+*. *,-. 6"%)+. (=). "*)=(NU%+'.

@%+<*!-6.6S

T,&9,*'5<*'BB%8!"?G0!D*'!&%CC,$5,&9,*'5<*!D)*!

2B,*!3*,CC,+*'C!D)*!B%15,*&U1,C,1,!C,:,&3,*F V'1<'*PD,3*<'*6!W'5'!D*'!(GAHM(GXY!*,'1'$R:,Z!

[+<*!D*'!T)*,!@<*,B%8Z!>1%B,*:%5,5,5!%!;,*+,1M

;V,*81,::,15,*,56

(15)

"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0!!!

)$

^!!

=$.O"6+*.*,-N?%+%./=%$+.=$.*,-(*?*+'5+.O"6=)C

%a5+%I. F%&''+'. *,-. 5+<+. +%. "*. "*)=(NU%+'. =$.

O"6+*.+%.#=3-+*.3a.+'.(-,#.)a*+."*.+'5%,'$+%.,.

O"6+*(.=6+%l"*+*+)3+%"*&%.3a6,%#+%."*)=(NUC

%+'(.*+)3+%"*&%.=$.(,%#&-"(M='7.=$.6,(+.6+%("I.

R#&--+. $=-N(*%?)(K(*+)+*. (*=33+. =33. D'=+.

(=).+%.+*.OK3=*+*,(#.=$.&("''(K'-,$.(L+'"%,=7.

(+."6(',<.YI^IZE7.,'5,#+%+%.#-,)")=5+--+'+."*.

a%(),5-+*. *+)3+%"*&%. ,. /=%$+(. 'U%=)%a5+%.

#"'. N"--+. )+5. YQZ:. rWI. H+<+. *,-(6"%+%. %&'5*.

O"-63"%*+'."6.*+)3+%"*&%"66,#+*.,.T$&%.9IZI]7.

'=+.(=).6,(+%."*.8a5+."*)=(NU%+'.=$.O"6+*.$,%.

(U%5+-+(.6,#*,$+.8,5%"$.*,-.5+'.O?K+.*+)3+%"C

*&%+'.6,.O"%.,.6a%+.'U%=)%a5+%I

. J%"'(3=%*+'. "6. "*-"'*+%O"6(6"''. (=).

(*%?))+%. ,''. ,. 5+. '=%5,(#+. O"67. +%. 8"-"'(+%*.

"6. +'. *,-(6"%+'5+. (?%$a+'5+. *%"'(3=%*I. H+'.

(?%$a+'5+. *%"'(3=%*+'. O"%. *=. O=6+5#=)3=C '+'*+%\. +'. $%+,'. (=). (*%?))+%. (?%=6+%. ,. 5+.

5K3+(*+.5+-+'+."6.%K$$+'.)+--=).F%?'-"'57.

A(-"'57. PU%?K+'+. =$. R#=<-"'5. DF%?'-"'5Q R#=<-"'5C%K$$+'E7.=$.+'.$%+,'.(=).(*%?))+%.

(?%=6+%. -"'$(. F%?'-"'5(. ?(*-,$+. #K(*I. !+$$+.

$%+,'+'+.O"%.+'.*+)3+%"*&%.(=).+%.8+*K5+-,$.

-"6+%+. +''. 5+*. ,''(*%?))+'5+. "*-"'*+%O"6(C 6"''+*7.*K3,(#.#"-5+%+.+''.9.rWI

. 4$+'(#"3+'+.*,-.6"'')"((+'+.(=).&*$M?%.

5+'.5K3+.&*(*%?)','$+'.N%".5+.'=%5,(#+.O"6.

N%")#=))+%.(=).N?-$+."6.+'.$%"56,(.'+5#M?C -,'$. "6. 5+*. 6"%)+7. '=%5$a+'5+. "*-"'*+%O"6(C 6"''+*I. H+''+. '+5#M?-,'$+'7. (")*. ,''8-"'C 5,'$. "6. N+%(#+%+. #K(*C. =$. 3=-"%6"''7. T''+%.

(*+5.,.5+.'=%5,(#+.O"67.!"%+'*(O"6+*.=$.G%#*,(I.

H+*.*"%.N%".'=+'.a%.*,-.)+%.+''.O&'5%+.a%.N%"."*C -"'*+%O"6(6"''+*.(*%?))+%.,''.,.5+.'=%5,(#+.

O"67.*,-.5+*.N=%-"*+%.=)%a5+*I.H+'.#=%*+(*+.=33C O=-5(*,5+'.+%.*K3,(#.N=%.5+.6"'')"((+'+.(=).

(,%#&-+%+%.%&'5*.3+%,N+%,+'."6.5+.'=%5,(#+.O"6.

D,. %+*','$. )=*. #-=##+'E7. )+'(. 5+'. -+'$(*+.

=33O=-5(*,5+'. $M+-5+%. N=%. 6"'')"((+'+. (=).

+'*%+%.G%#*,(I

. 0)5"'','$+'."6.6"%)*.=$.("-*.=6+%l"*+C 6"''.*,-.#"-5*.=$.N+%(#*.8&''6"''.+%.)+5.3a.a.

=33%+<O=-5+.5+'.(*=%(*,-*+.O"6(,%#&-"(M='+'.,.

G*-"'*+%O"6+*.=$.5+.'=%5,(#+.O"6I.A.*,--+$$.*,-.

5+''+. =)6+-*','$+'. Q. #M+'*. (=). *+%)=O"-,'.

(,%#&-"(M='.Q.5%,6+(.O"6(,%#&-"(M='+'."6.6,'C 5+'+.(=).8-a(+%.3a.O"6+*(.=6+%l"*+I.4'5%,'C

$+%. ,. O"6(,%#&-"(M='+'7. =). 5+. +%. '"*&%-,$+.

+--+%.)+''+(#+(#"3*+7.6,-.5+%N=%.#&''+.N%")C

#=))+."6.+'5%+*.6,'53a5%"$.+--+%.+'5%,'$+%.

,.O"6+*(.*+)3+%"*&%C.=$.("-*N=%5+-,'$I

. ka.*,-(6"%+'5+.)a*+.(=).5+*.+%.'"*&%-,$+.

6"%,"(M='+%.,.5+'."*)=(NU%,(#+.(,%#&-"(M='+'7.

=$. 5". ,. (U%-,$. $%"5. #'K<+*. *,-. /G0. D(+. "6C (',<.9IZIZE7.+%.5+*.=$(a.'"*&%-,$+.6"%,"(M='+%.,.

O"6(,%#&-"(M='+'. =$. ,. O"6+*(. *+)3+%"*&%C. =$.

("-*N=%5+-,'$. D(+. "6(',<. ]I]EI. F+'+%+-*. +%. 6"C

%,"(M='+'+.,."*)=(NU%+'.(*?%%+.=$.%"(#+%+.+''.

,. O"6+*I. S,#*,$+. a%("#+%. *,-. 5+<+. +%. 5+'. (*=%+.

N=%(#M+--+'. ,. +$+'6+#*. )+--=). -&g. =$. 6"''7.

=$."*.O"6(,%#&-"(M='+'.+%.NK(,(#.8+$%+'(+*."6.

O"68"((+'$+'+(.N=%).=$.&*(*%+#','$I.ka.*%=((.

"6. 5+<+. +%. 5+*. =8(+%6+%*. %"(#+. 6"%,"(M='+%. ,.

O"6#-,)"+*.,.5+.'=%5,(#+.O"6I.H+<+.(#K-5+(."*.

5+.'=%5,(#+.O"6.+%.3-"((+%*.)+--=).6"%)+.=$.

("-*+.6"'')"((+%.,.(?%.=$.?(*7.=$.#"-5+.=$.N+%C (#+.6"'')"((+%.,.'=%5.=$.6+(*I.R)a.+'5%,'$+%.

,.6"'')"((+N=%5+-,'$+'.6,-.5+%N=%.$,.(*=%+.&*C (-"$I.R+."6(',<.]I].N=%.+'.8+(#%,6+-(+."6.5+<+I

(16)

)%

!!"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0

2.2 Klima

2-,)"+*.3a.+*.(*+5.8+(#%,6+(.6"'-,$6,(.6+5.OM+-3.

"6.),55+-6+%5,+%.=$.6"%,"(M='+'+.%&'5*.5,((+I.

4*.6"'-,$.8+$%+3.,''+'.#-,)"*=-=$,.+%.o'=%)"C -+%p7.(=).+%.8+*+$'+-(+'.3a.),55+-6+%5,+%.N=%.

8+(*+)*+.]:Ca%(.3+%,=5+%I./=%)"-+%.8+%+$'+(.

N=%.+'.%+##+.)+*+=%=-=$,(#+.=$.OK5%=-=$,(#+.

+-+)+'*+%7.=$.5+.+%.+<+%.+'.,'*+%'"(M='"-."6C

*"-+. ),55+-6+%5,+%. N=%. a%+'+. Z;:ZQ]:7. Z;]ZQ _:7. Z;_ZQ;:7. Z;;ZQ9:9:. =(6I. H+<+. +%. $M=%*. N=%.

"*. )"'. =6+%. O+-+. 6+%5+'. (#"-. #&''+. 8+'K<+.

=$. ("))+'-,$'+. ),55+-6+%5,+%. N=%. ("))+.

3+%,=5+I. A. 5"$+'(. 5,$,*"-,(+%*+. 6+%5+'. +%. 5+*.

(+-6N?-$+-,$. )&-,$. a. 8+%+$'+. ),55+-6+%5,+%.

N=%.6,-#a%-,$+.]:Ca%(.3+%,=5+%7.NI+#(I.Z;fZC9:::.

+--+%.Z;f;Q9::i.D(+.#"3,<+-.^EI.P=%.a.(#,--+.)+-C -=).(-,#+.6+%5,+%7.#"--+(.$M+%'+.5+.=6+''+6'*+.

3+%,=5+'+. N=%. o(*"'5"%5. '=%)"-3+%,=5+%pI. A.

5+''+.%"33=%*+'.+%.o'=%)"-6+%5,+%p.),55+-C 6+%5,+%.N=%.(*"'5"%5'=%)"-3+%,=5+'.Z;_ZQ;:I.

. !+-,$$+'O+*+'. ,. 6+(*"6,'5(8+-*+*. =$. )+5.

+'.(*=%.=$.6"%).O"6(*%?).&*+'N=%.#K(*+'.$M?%.

"*. #-,)"+*. ,. /=%$+. +%. )+%. $&'(*,$. +''. O6".

8%+55+$%"5."-+'+.(#&--+.*,-(,I.[+'.5+*.+%.(*=%+.

6"%,"(M='+%.,.#-,)"+*.,./=%$+\.8a5+.$+=$%"T(#.

=$.=6+%.*,5I.P%".X,'5+('+(.*,-./=%5#"33.(*%+#C

#+%.-"'5+*.(+$.=6+%.)+%.+''.Z].8%+55+$%"5+%7.

'=+. (=). +%. -,#+. -"'$*. (=). N%". X,'5+('+(. *,-.

[,55+-O"6+*I.H+((&*+'.+%.5+*.(*=%+.N=%(#M+--+%.

,.)=<"<.(=-+'+%$,.$M+''=).a%+*I.P=%(#M+--+'+.

+%.(*?%(*.,./=%5C/=%$+.=$.,.G%#*,(7.)+5.),5C '"<(=-.=).(=))+%+'.=$.)?%#+*,5.=).6,'*+C

%+'I.A.*,--+$$.)+56,%#+%.*+%%+'$+*.*,-."*.5+*.8-,%.

(*=%+.-=#"-+.N=%(#M+--+%.=6+%.#=%*+."6(*"'5+%I.

2.2.1 Lufttemperatur

B"6. =$. -"'5=)%a5+%. %+"$+%+%. N=%(#M+--,$. 3a.

,''(*%a-*.(=-+'+%$,I.X"'5=)%a5+%.6"%)+(.=33.

=$.#M?-+(.'+5.O&%*,$+%+.+''.O"6=)%a5+%I.P=%C (#M+--+'+. )+--=). 5+. O?K+(*+. =$. -"6+(*+. -&gC

*+)3+%"*&%+'+. 8-,%. 5+%)+5. (*?%%+. =6+%. ,''C -"'5+*.+''.=6+%.=$.'U%.O"6=)%a5+'+I.S,.Na%.

O+'O=-5(6,(. +*. #='*,'+'*"-*. =$. +*. )"%,*,)*.

#-,)"I.A.=)%a5+%.)+5.)"%,*,)*.#-,)".6,-.6,'C

*%+'+.6U%+.6"%)+%+.=$.(=)%+'+.#M?-,$+%+.+''.

,.5+*.#='*,'+'*"-+.#-,)"+*I.

. 06+%. R#"'5,'"6,". (*%?))+%. 5+*. ,. (*=%+.

5+-+%. "6. a%+*. -&g)"((+%. N%". G*-"'*+%O"6+*.

,''.=6+%.-"'57.=$.(*=%+.5+-+%."6./=%$+.O"%.+*.

)"%,.*,)*.#-,)"I.X"'$(.#K(*+'."6./=%$+.+%.N=%C (#M+--+'. )+--=). O?K+(*+. =$. -"6+(*+. '=%)"-+.

)a'+5(),55+-*+)3+%"*&%. Z:QZY. rWI. A. /=%$+.

%+5&(+%+%.%,#*,$'=#.`+--#M+5+'+.5+'.)"%,*,)+.

,''lK*+-(+'. '=#(a. %"(#*7. )+'. 5+'. +%. -,#+6+-.

)+%#8"%. =$(a. ,. ,'5%+. (*%?#. "6. n(*-"'5+*. =$.

P,'')"%#7. 5+. 5+-+%. "6. -"'5+*. (=). O"%. )+%.

#='*,'+'*"-*.#-,)"I.P=%(#M+--+'+.)+--=).O?KC +(*+.=$.-"6+(*+.'=%)"-+.)a'+5(),55+-*+)3+C

%"*&%.+%.,.5,((+.=)%a5+'+.9:Q]:.rWI

. e%(),55+-*+)3+%"*&%+'.),5-+*.=6+%.O+-+.

/=%$+.+%.L"I.sZ.rW7.=$.T$&%.9I9IZ.6,(+%."*.5+'.

O?K+(*+. '=%)"-+. a%(*+)3+%"*&%+'. +%. a. T''+.

-"'$(.#K(*+'I.0).(=))+%+'.+%.%,#*,$'=#.5+'.

'=%)"-+. )a'+5(*+)3+%"*&%+'. -"'$(. #K(*+'.

-"6+%+.+''.,.,''-"'5+*7.)+'.,.,''-"'5+*.8,5%"%.

5+. -"6+. 6,'*+%*+)3+%"*&%+'+. *,-. a. *%+##+. '+5.

a%(*+)3+%"*&%+'I. ka. n(*-"'5+*. N?%+%. 5+<+. *,-.

"*.'=%)"-.a%(*+)3+%"*&%.#=))+%.3a.-,'M+.)+5.

a%(*+)3+%"*&%+'.,.-"6+.=$.#K(*'U%+.=)%a5+%.,.

/=%5C/=%$+I. ka. S+(*-"'5+*. =$. ,. /=%5C/=%$+.

$,%.`+--.=$.`=%5+%.(*=%+.N=%(#M+--+%.,.a%(*+)3+C

%"*&%.=6+%.)+$+*.()a."6(*"'5+%I.ka.n(*-"'5+*.

"6*"%. *+)3+%"*&%+'. M+6'+%+. )+5. "6(*"'5+'.

N%".#K(*+'I.

. H+*.6"%)+(*+.=)%a5+*.3a.a%(8"(,(.+%.#K(*C (='+'. N%". X,(*". *,-. R*"57. 5+%. a%(*+)3+%"*&%+'.

+%.3a.=6+%._.rW.DT$&%.9I9IZEI.H+*.#"-5+(*+.=)C

%a5+*. ,. -"6+%+. (*%?#. +%. P,'')"%#(6,55"7. O6=%.

)a-+(*"(M='+'. R,vv"M"6%+. O"%. -"6+(*+. a%(*+)C 3+%"*&%.)+5.Q]7Z.rWI.A.O?K`+--((*%?#+'+.+%.5+*.

(*=%+.=)%a5+%.(=).O"%.'=%)"-.a%(*+)3+%"*&%.

-"6+%+.+''.Q^.rWI.ka.R6"-8"%5.O"%.8a5+.X='$C K+"%8K+'.=$./KCe-+(&'5.'=%)"-.a%(*+)3+%"C

*&%.3a.L"I.Q_.rW7.)+'(.!M?%'?K".=$.b"'.["K+'.

O"%.OO6I.Q9.=$.QZ.rWI.

. P,$&%.9I9I9.6,(+%."*.6,'*+%(*,5.D5+(+)8+%.Q.

N+8%&"%E.O"%.(*=%+.5+-+%."6.#K(*C.=$.`=%5=)%aC 5+'+.N%".0(-=`=%5+'.*,-.S+(*+%a-+'.),55+-*+)C 3+%"*&%. 'U%. :. rW7. =$. "*. ),55+-*+)3+%"*&%+'.

+%.=6+%.:.rW.K<+%(*.3a.#K(*+'.N%".2%,(*,"'("'5.

=$. =33. *,-. J%='5O+,)(`=%5+'I. A. O?K`+--+*. =$.

,.,'5%+.(*%?#."6.n(*-"'5+*.=$./=%5C/=%$+.+%.

'=%)"-. 6,'*+%*+)3+%"*&%. -"6+%+. +''. QZ:. rWI.

(17)

"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0!!!

)&

^!!

A. G%#*,(. O"%. 8a5+. X='$K+"%8K+'. =$. /KCe-+C (&'5. '=%)"-. 6,'*+%*+)3+%"*&%. 3a. L". QZ^. rW7.

!M?%'?K".Qi.=$.b"'.["K+'.Q_.rWI.

. R=))+%(*,5. DM&',Q"&$&(*E. +%. ),55+-*+)C 3+%"*&%+'. O?K+(*. ,. -"6-"'5+*. ?(*"`+--(. DT$&%.

9I9I]EI. 0$(a. `=%5(*%?#+'+. 3a. S+(*-"'5+*. =$.

-"'$(. J%='5O+,)(`=%5+'. O"%. %+-"*,6*. O?K+.

(=))+%*+)3+%"*&%+%I. P,$&%+'. 6,(+%. =$(a.

'=%)"-*+)3+%"*&%+%. $=5*. =6+%. Z:. rW. ,. ,'5%+.

`=%5(*%?#. ,. J%=)(. =$. P,'')"%#. =$. 3a. P,''C )"%#(6,55"I. X"6+(*. (=))+%*+)3+%"*&%. +%.

5+*. ,. O?K`+--+*. D3a. P"'"%a#+'. D9:_9. )=OIE. +%.

'=%)"-*+)3+%"*&%+'. 9. rWE. =$. ,. G%#*,(. Db"'.

["K+'7. !M?%'?K". =$. /KCe-+(&'5. L"I. ]. rW. =$.

X='$K+"%8K+'.L"I.Y.rWEI.

@%+<*!-6-6.!

\*:&%CC,$5,&9,*'5<*!"?G0!%!1)*&'$9,*%)C,1!.NO.PN/

(18)

)'

!!"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0

@%+<*!-6-6-!)+!-6-6S

]%C$,*,!B%15,*F!)+!:)&&,*5,&9,*'5<*!"?G0!!

%!1)*&'$9,*%)C,1!.NO.PN/

2.2.2 Vekstsesong

X&g*+)3+%"*&%.+%.+'."6.5+.8+$%+'(+'5+.N"#C

*=%+%. N=%. 6+#(*(+(='$+'. ,. /=%$+I. k-"'*+"%*+%.

%+"$+%+%. &-,#*. 3a. *+)3+%"*&%N=%O=-5+'+7. =$.

5+*.+%.=$(a."'5%+.N"#*=%+%.(=).(3,--+%.+'.%=--+.

D'+58?%7. ('?5+##+7. (*%a-,'$7. M=%5()=''7. +#C (3=(,(M='. =(6IEI. H+*. +%. +'. %+##+. 5+T',(M='+%.

3a.5+'.*+)3+%"*&%8+(*+)*+.6+#(*(+(='$7.)+'.

W"%*+%. DZ;;iE. "%$&)+'*+%*+. N=%. "*. (+(='$+'.

N=%. "#*,6. 3-"'*+6+#(*. ,. 5+. '=%5,(#+. -"'5. 8?%.

5+T.'+%+(.(=).3+%,=5+'.5+%.5?$'),55+-*+)C 3+%"*&%+'.+%.=6+%.Y.rWI.G'*"--.5?$'.)+5.),5C 5+-*+)3+%"*&%. wY. rW. +%. 5+%N=%. +'. =g+. 8%&#*.

,'5,#"*=%.3a.-+'$5+."6.6+#(*(+(='$7.=$.5+'.+%.

=$(a.8+'K<+*.,.5+''+.%"33=%*+'I.R,5+'.8+$K'C '+-(+'."6.Z;i:Ca%+'+.+%.5+*.=$(a.N=%+*"<.#"%*C -+$$,'$."6.6+#(*(+(='$+'.,./=%$+.8"(+%*.3a.+'.

6+$+*"(M='(,'5+#(. 8+%+$'+*. N%". ("*+--,<8,-5+%.

D2"%-(+'.)IlI7.9::_EI.

. A. -"6-"'5+*. ,. R?%C/=%$+. '=%5=6+%. *,-. =$.

)+5. J%?'5+-"$. =$. 6,5+%+. '=%5=6+%. ,. -"6+%+.

#K(*'U%+.=)%a5+%.*,-.!=5?.$a%.'=%)"-.5?$'C

*+)3+%"*&%. =6+%. Y. rW. N?%. ZI. )",7. )+'(. 5+'. ,.

l+%+. O?K`+--((*%?#. ,##+. $M?%. 5+*. N?%. +<+%. ZYI.

M&',.DG&'+.)IlI7.Z;;]EI.A.5+.("))+.O?K`+--(C (*%?#+'+. =$. 3a. P,'')"%#(6,55". N"--+%. '=%C

(19)

"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0!!!

)(

^!!

@%+<*!-6-6^

_,1+C,!"C'+,*0!'B!B,8:5:,:)1+!

%!1)*&'$9,*%)C,1!.NO.PN/

@%+<*!-6-6`

@R*%1+:+*'CC'+:<&!%!1)*&'$9,*%)C,1!.NO.PN/

(20)

!*

!!"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0

)"-. 5?$'*+)3+%"*&%. &'5+%. Y. rW. "--+%+5+. N?%.

ZYI. (+3*+)8+%7. )+'(. K<+%(*. -"'$(. #K(*+'. N%".

J%?'5+-"$.=$.(?%=6+%.(#M+%.,##+.5+<+.N?%.+<+%.

ZI. '=6+)8+%I. S+#(*(+(='$+'. +%. -+'$(*. D=33*,-.

99Y. 5?$'E. K<+%(*. -"'$(. #K(*+'. "6. S+(*-"'5+*.

DT$&%. 9I9I^EI. S+#(*(+(='$+'. +%. '=+. #=%*+%+. ,.

,'5%+. (*%?#. 3a. n(*-"'5+*7. O6=%. N=%. +#(+)3+-.

[M?(C=)%a5+*.O"%.L"I.Z_Y.5?$'I.ka.(*=%+.5+-+%.

"6.P,'')"%#(6,55".+%.6+#(*(+(='$+'.)+--=).

;:.=$.Z9:.5?$'I.A.O?K`+--+*.=$.5+-+%."6.S"%"'C

$+%O"-6?K".+%.5+'.*+)3+%"*&%8+(*+)*+.6+#(*C (+(='$+'.&'5+%.f:.5?$'I.

2.2.3 Fyringssesong og fyringsgraddager PK%,'$((+(='$+'.+%.5+'.5+-+'."6.a%+*.5".8K$C ','$+%.*%+'$+%.=336"%),'$7.=$.5+<+.+%.,.N=%+C -,$$+'5+. "'"-K(+. 5+T'+%*. (=). 3+%,=5+'. "6.

a%+*. 5". 5?$'),55+-*+)3+%"*&%+'. +%. &'5+%.

Z:q^qrW. DR#"&$+'. =$. J6+,*=7. 9::9EI. 4'+%$,N=%C 8%&#. *,-. =336"%),'$. +%. '?K+. #=%%+-+%*. )+5.

(&))+'. "6. NK%,'$($%"55"$+%. DP?%-"'5. )IlI7.

9::^EI. PK%,'$($%"55"$+%. +%. O+%. 5+T'+%*. (=).

5,x+%"'(+'. )+--=). 5?$'),55+-*+)3+%"*&%.

=$.+'.*+%(.#+-6+%5,.3a.Zf.rW.=$.(+<+(.-,#.'&--.

N=%. 5?$'. )+5. ),55+-*+)3+%"*&%. =6+%. Z:qrW.

DR#"&$+'. =$. J6+,*=7. 9::9EI. H6(I. "*. +'. 5"$.

)+5.5?$'),55+-*+)3+%"*&%.3a.QZ:.rW.6,-.8,C 5%".)+5.+*.NK%,'$($%"55"$(*"--.3a.ZfQDQZ:E.u.

9fI. PK%,'$($%"55"$(&))+'. +%. (&))+'. "6.

(-,#+.6+%5,+%I.A.5+.'=%5,(#+.-"'5.+%.+'+%$,N=%C 8%&#+*. *,-. 8=-,$=336"%),'$. =$(a. "6O+'$,$.

"6. "'5%+. #-,)"N=%O=-5. D6,'5(*K%#+. =$. (*%aC -,'$E7.(")*.N"#*=%+%.(=).O+'$+%.("))+'.)+5.

5+)=.$%"T(#+. +'5%,'$+%7. -+6+(*"'5"%57. #%"6.

*,-. ,''+#=)N=%*. =$. 8K$','$(#='(*%&#(M='+%.

DS+'y-y,'+'.)IlI7.9::^EI

. c<+%(*.3a.#K(*+'."6.S+(*-"'5+*.+%.a%((&)C )+'. "6. NK%,'$($%"55"$+%. DBHHE. ,. '=%)"-C 3+%,=5+'. 3a. &'5+%. ]:::. DT$&%. 9I9IYEI. /U%.

0(-=.`=%5+'7. 3a. R?%-"'5+*. =$. ,. `=%5(*%?#+'+.

=33. *,-. J%='5O+,)(`=%5+'. +%. BHH. )+--=).

]:::.=$.^:::7.)+'(.5+'.,.,'5%+.(*%?#."6.n(*C -"'5+*7. ,. O?K`+--+*. =$. ,. ,'5%+. (*%?#. "6. /=%5C /=%$+.+%.3a.=6+%._:::I.

2.2.4 Varme døgn

oJ%=3+5?$'p.+%.=g+.8%&#*.=).5?$'.5+%.)"#C (,)&)(*+)3+%"*&%+'. +%. =6+%. ]:. rW7. =$. '"*C

*+*+)3+%"*&%+'. ,##+. +%. &'5+%. 9:. rWI. H+<+.

N=%+#=))+%.)+$+*.(M+-5+'.,./=%$+I.A.5+.'=%C 5,(#+.-"'5.8%&#+(.8+$%+3+*.*%=3+'"<.=).5?$'.

5".*+)3+%"*&%+'.=).'"<+'.,##+.N"--+%.&'5+%.

9:qrWI.R-,#+.5?$'.+%.,##+.&6"'-,$+.3a.(+'(=)C )+%+'. K<+%(*. ,. 0(-=`=%5+'. =$. 3a. (?%-"'5(C

#K(*+'.'a%.(M?*+)3+%"*&%+'.+%.O?K7.)+'.N=%+C

#=))+%.=$(a.3a.S+(*-"'5+*.=$.,./=%5C/=%$+I.

A./=%$+.+%.o*%=3+5?$'p.8"%+.8-,<.%+$,(*%+%*.+*.

Na*"--. $"'$+%I. P=%. a. Na. +'. )+%. %=8&(*. ,'5,#"C

*=%. 3a. N=%+#=)(*. "6. 6"%)+. 5?$'. (=). #&''+.

8%&#+(.8a5+.N=%.=8(+%6+%*.=$.3%=M,(+%*.*+)3+C

%"*&%7.O"%.6,.,.5+''+.%"33=%*+'.8+'K<+*.5?$'.

5+%. 5?$'),55+-*+)3+%"*&%+'. +%. O?K+%+. +''.

9:.rWI.

. P,$&%. 9I9I_. +%. 8"(+%*. 3a. &*M+6'+5+. #"%*.

)+5. +*. %&*+'+<. 3a. ZjZ. #)I. H+'. 6,(+%. "*. 5+*.

8"%+.+%.=)%a5+'+.'U%.0(-=`=%5+'.(=).,.'=%C )"-3+%,=5+'.Z;_ZQ;:.O"55+.)+%.+''.*=.5?$'.

3+%. a%. )+5. 5?$'),55+-*+)3+%"*&%. 3a. =6+%.

9:q?WI.B?K+(*+.6+%5,.DL"I.a<+.5?$'.3+%.a%E.T'C '+(.,.+*.-,*+.=)%a5+.,.-"6+%+-,$$+'5+.(*%?#.,'C '+%(*.,.0(-=`=%5+'I.H?$'.)+5.(a.O?K.),55+-C

*+)3+%"*&%.N=%+#=))+%.=$(a.,."'5%+.5+-+%."6.

-"'5+*7.)+'.(a.(M+-5+'."*.'=%)"-6+%5,+'.+%.3a.

&'5+%.*=.5?$'ha%I

2.2.5 Års- og årstidsnedbør

P,$&%. 9I9If. 6,(+%. "*. a%('+58?%+'. +%. (*?%(*. ,.

),5*%+.(*%?#."6.S+(*-"'5+*I.R*?%(*.)a-*.'=%)"-.

a%('+58?%. D]YfY. ))E. O"%. (*"(M='+'. !%+##+.

-,#+. (?%. N=%. )&'','$+'. "6. R=$'+`=%5+'7. =$.

l+%+."'5%+.(*"(M='+%.,.5+<+.=)%a5+*.O"%.'+(C

*+'.-,#+.O?K+.6+%5,+%I.H+.(*?%(*+.'+58?%)+'$C 5+'+. #=))+%. ,),5-+%*,5. ,. `+--=)%a5+%7. O6=%.

5+*. +%. )+$+*. 6"'(#+-,$. a. Na. )a-*. '+58?%+'I.

H+-+%. "6. 5+. 6+(*-,$(*+. 8%+=)%a5+'+. ,. /=%$+.

O"%.*%=-,$.'=%)"-.a%('+58?%.3a.$=5*.=6+%.Y:::.

)). D(+. #"3,<+-. 9I]I9EI. ["#(,)&)(.(='+'. N=%.

@%+<*!-6-6O

]%C$,*,!'15'$$!CQ+1!&,C!&%CC,$5,&9,*'5<*!)B,*!

-/!?G!%!1)*&'$9,*%)C,1!.NO.PN/

(21)

"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0!!!

!)

^!!

'+58?%. 3a. S+(*-"'5+*. +%. 8-"'*. 5+. )+(*. '+5C 8?%%,#+. =)%a5+'+. ,. 4&%=3"I. /=%5=6+%. "6*"%.

a%('+58?%+'. '=+7. =$. 5+*. (#K-5+(. 6+(+'*-,$.

"*. -&g*+)3+%"*&%+'. "6*"%I. [+'. l+%+. (*+5+%.

-"'$(. #K(*+'. "6. /=%5C/=%$+. +%. 5+*. =)%a5+%.

)+5.a%('+58?%.$=5*.=6+%.9:::.))I.A'5%+.5+C -+%."6.n(*-"'5+*7.P,'')"%#(6,55".=$.+'#+-*+.

),'5.%+.=)%a5+%.'U%.$%+'(+'.)=*.R6+%,$+.-,$C

$+%.,.-+.N=%.5+.N&#*,$+.-&g(*%?))+'+.N%".6+(*I.

@%+<*!-6-6a

]%C$,*,!U*:1,C3Q*!"&&0!%!1)*&'$9,*%)C,1!.NO.PN/

A. 5,((+. =)%a5+'+. +%. a%('+58?%+'. )+$+*. -"67.

=$. )+(*+3"%*+'. #=))+%. ,. M&-,. =$. "&$&(*. 'a%.

8K$+.6,%#(=)O+*+'. +%. (*+%#+(*I. S+5. +'#+-*+.

)a-+(*"(M='+%. ?6+%(*. ,. F&58%"'5(5"-+'. =$.

,. ,'5%+. J%=)(. +%. a%('+58?%+'. -"6+%+. +''. ]::.

))I.H+'.-"6+(*+.)a-*+.a%('+58?%+'.,.'=%(#+.

=)%a5+%. +%. ,),5-+%*,5. ,.G%#*,(\. 6+5. R6"-8"%5.

-&gO"6'. )+5. Zi:. ))I. A. /KCe-+(&'5. =$. 3a.

!M?%'?K".+%.)a-*.a%('+58?%.L"I.]f:.)).=$.3a.

b"'.["K+'.L"I._;:.))I

(22)

!!

!!"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0

. S,'*+%(*,5. DT$&%. 9I9IiE. +%. 5+*. #6"-,*"*,6+.

'+58?%)?'(*+%+*. =). -"$. (=). N=%. a%('+58?%\.

56(I. O?K+. 6+%5,+%. DwZ:::. ))E. ,. ),5*%+. (*%?#.

"6.S+(*-"'5+*.=$.-"6+.6+%5,+%.DzY:.))E.?6+%(*.

,. F&58%"'5(5"-+'. =$. ,. ,'5%+. 5+-+%. "6. P,''C )"%#(6,55"I.0$(a.,.R6"-8"%5C=)%a5+*.+%.)a-*.

6,'*+%'+58?%. -"6. DL"I. ^Y. )). 6+5. R6"-8"%5.

-&gO"6'E7. )+'(. 5+'. +%. '=+. O?K+%+. 3a. b"'.

["K+'. DL". Zi:. ))EI. P=%. (=))+%)a'+5+'+.

M&',.Q."&$&(*.DT$&%.9I9I;E.+%.#='*%"(*+'+.)+-C -=).-"'5(5+-+'+.-"'$*.),'5%+.+''.6,'*+%(*,5I.

H+*. +%. =$(a. =). (=))+%+'. O?K+(*. 6+%5,+%. ,.

),5*%+. 5+-+%. "6. S+(*-"'5+*. =$. 3a. #K(*+'. "6.

/=%5-"'57. )+'. =6+%. (*=%+. 5+-+%. "6. /=%$+. +%.

'=%)"-. (=))+%'+58?%. ,. ,'*+%6"--+*. Z::Q]::.

))I. A. X='$K+"%8K+'. +%. (=))+%'+58?%+'. Y9.

))7. 6+5. /KCe-+(&'5. =$. !M?%'?K". L"I. ;:7. =$.

3a.b"'.["K+'.L"I.ZY:.))I.

2.2.6 Korttidsnedbør

4'. (*=%. 5+-. "6. ,'N%"(*%&#*&%+'. ,. /=%$+. +%.

5,)+'.(M='+%*.+<+%.+(*,)"*."6.3a%+$'+-,$+.+#(C

*%+)+. '+58?%6+%5,+%. 8"(+%*. 3a. -"'$+. )a-+C (+%,+%.DP?%-"'5.)IlI7.9::fEI.A.(*?%%+.6"((5%"$.+%.

5+*.#%"g,$.'+58?%.)+5.6"%,$O+*.3a.ZQZ:.5?$'.

(=).N=%a%("#+%.5+.(*?%(*+.%+$'l=))+'+I.H+*.

@%+<*!-6-6E!)+!-6-6N

]%C$,*,!B%15,*!F!)+!:)&&,*1,C3Q*!!

%!1)*&'$9,*%)C,1!.NO.PN/

(23)

"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0!!!

!"

^!!

-"'5+*.*,-.=6+%.Z::.)).D)"#(.6+%5,.Z^].))E.,.

5+.)+(*.'+58?%%,#+.=)%a5+'+.3a.S+(*-"'5+*I.

. A. 8K+%. =$. *+<8K$5+. (*%?#. +%. 5+*. =g+(*.

#%"g,$. '+58?%. ,. -?3+*. "6. '=+'. Na. *,)+%. (=).

N=%a%("#+%. l+(*. (#"5+%I. AN?-$+. X,'5O=-). )IlI.

D9::iE.O"%.l=))+%.,.*+<(*+5+'+.,.5+.(+'+%+.a%.

N=%a%("#+*. (*"5,$. (*?%%+. (#"5+%I. X+5','$('+*C

*+'+.O"%.,##+.#-"%*.a.O=-5+.*%,<.)+5.?#','$+'.

,.6"'')+'$5+'+I.!a5+.?#+'5+.&%8"',(+%,'$(C

$%"5. =$. +'5%,'$+%. ,. #-,)"+*. 5+. (+'+(*+. *,a%+C '+.O"%.,N?-$+.X,'5O=-).)IlI.D9::iE.8,5%"<.*,-.

3%=8-+)+*I.4*.6,#*,$.$%&''-"$.N=%.5,)+'(M='+C

%,'$."6.-+5','$('+<.N=%.=6+%6"''.,./=%$+.+%.

)a-+(+%,+%.N=%+*"<.)+5.%+$,(*%+%+'5+.'+58?%C )a-+%+I.P%".5,((+.)a-+(+%,+'+.+%.5+*.D(+.7776

&,561)E. &*"%8+,5+*. 5+*"-M+%*. (*"*,(*,##. D(a#"-*+.

oA'*+'(,*+*CS"%,$O+*CP%+#6+'(. DASPEC#&%6+%pE.

=6+%. '+58?%,'*+'(,*+*. (=). )a. N=%6+'*+(. ,. -?C +%. (*=%+. -=#"-+. N=%(#M+--+%. ,. 5,)+'(M='+%+'5+.

'+58?%6+%5,+%. =6+%. /=%$+I. 4#(+)3+-6,(. +%.

3a%+$'+-,$.+<C5?$'(.'+58?%6+%5,.)+5.%+*&%C 3+%,=5+.3a.N+).a%.),'5%+.+''.^:.)).,.,'5%+.

5"-(*%?#.3a.n(*-"'5+*.=$.3a.P,'')"%#(6,55"7.

=$. =6+%. Z]:. )). ,. 5+. )+(*. '+58?%%,#+. =)%aC 5+'+. 3a. S+(*-"'5+*. =$. ,. /=%5-"'5. DP?%-"'5.

)IlI7.9::fEI.

. P=%. a. Na. +'. %=8&(*. ,'5,#"*=%. 3a. #%"g,$.

'+58?%.(=).#&''+.8%&#+(.8a5+.N=%.=8(+%6+%*+.

=$.3%=M,(+%*+.5?$'-,$+.'+58?%6+%5,+%7.+%.5+*.,.

5+''+. %"33=%*+'. 6"-$*. +<5?$'(. '+58?%6+%5,.

(=).=6+%(#%,5+(.,.Z.3%=(+'*."6.*,-N+--+'+7.56(I.

+'. +<5?$'(6+%5,. (=). ,. $M+''=)(',<. 8"%+.

=6+%(#%,5+(.]Q^.$"'$+%.3+%.a%I.P,$&%.9I9IZ:.6,C (+%."*.',6a+*.3a.5+''+.Z.{C6+%5,+'.,.'=%)"-C 3+%,=5+'.Z;_ZQ;:.6"%,+%*+.N%".&'5+%.ZY.)).3a.

P,'')"%#(6,55". =$. ,. ,'5%+. 5"-(*%?#. 3a. n(*C

@%+<*!-6-6./

b,*C%!9U!,KCQ+1:!1,C3Q*!"&&0!:)&!3$,!)B,*F :8*,C,5!%!.!c!'B!5%$D,$$,1,!%!1)*&'$9,*%)C,1!

.NO.PN/

(24)

!#

!!"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0

3+*.&-,#+.6"%,$O+*+%.DN%".Z.),'&<.*,-.9^.*,)+%E.

=$.N=%.&-,#+.%+*&%3+%,=5+%I.A.O=6+5*%+##.+%.5+*.

n(*-"'5+*.(=).O"%.5+.(*?%(*+.'+58?%6+%5,+'+.

,.-?3+*."6.6"%,$O+*+%.N%".+*.),'&<.*,-.+'.*,)+7.

R?%-"'5+*.5+.(*?%(*+.,.-?3+*."6.9Q_.*,)+%7.)+'(.

S+(*-"'5+*.5=),'+%+%.N=%.6"%,$O+*+%.N%".Z9.*,C )+%.=$.=33=6+%.D[")+'.=$.A5+'7.9::;EI.0$(a.

,."'5%+.-"'5(5+-+%.#"'.5+*.N=%+#=))+.)+$+*.

#%"g,$.'+58?%.,.+#(*%+)+.8K$+(,*&"(M='+%I.4'.

#%"g,$.8K$+.,.[=-5+.,."&$&(*.Z;i_.O"%.6+%5,+%.

3a.',6a.)+5.5+.#%"g,$(*+.?(*-"'5(8K$+'+.N=%.

"--+.6"%,$O+*+%.N%".ZQZY.),'&<+%I.

2.2.7 Ekstrem vindhastighet

B"%(*6+,*. D9::YE. O"%. &*"%8+,5+*. #"%*. =6+%. 5,C )+'(M='+%+'5+.+#(*%+)+.6,'56+%5,+%.)+5.Y:.

a%(. %+*&%3+%,=5+. N=%. /=%$+. =$. 'U%-,$$+'5+.

O"6=)%a5+%I. H,((+. +(*,)"*+'+. $,%. ),5-+%+.

6,'5O"(*,$O+*.,.-?3+*."6.Z:.),'&<+%7.=$.$M+-C 5+%. Z:. ). =6+%. 8"##+'. ,. =)%a5+%. (=). +%. N%,<.

+#(.3='+%*I.H+.-"6+(*+.6+%5,+'+.D99Q9^.)h(7.-,C

*+'.(*=%)E.8-+.(*,3&-+%*.N=%.,'5%+.5+-+%."6.n(*C -"'5+*.=$.,'5%+.5+-+%."6.P,'')"%#.=$.J%=)(I.

X"'$(. (*=%+. 5+-+%. "6. #K(*+'. +%. 3a%+$'+-,$. Y:.

a%(. 6+%5,. =%#"'. Dw]97_. )h(EI. P=%. +'#+-*+. (3+C (,+-*. 6,'5&*("<+. =)%a5+%. 3a. N"(*-"'5+*. =$. ,.

'U%-,$$+'5+. O"6=)%a5+%. +%. Y:Ca%(6+%5,+'.

,N?-$+.B"%(*6+,*.D9::YE.*+<.=33.)=*.^:.)h(I.

(25)

"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0!!!

!$

^!!

2.3.1 Det hydrologiske kretsløpet

H+*. OK5%=-=$,(#+. #%+*(-?3+*. 8+(#%,6+%. O6=%C 5"'. 6"''. N"--+%. 3a. -"'5=)%a5+%. ,. N=%). "6.

'+58?%7. O6=%5"'. 5+*. "##&)&-+%+(. ,. N=%). "6.

('?. =$. ,(. +--+%. ,'T-*%+%+(. '+5. ,. 8"##+'. (=).

)"%#6"''.=$.-"$%+(.(=).$%&''6"''7.O6=%5"'.

6"''.N=%5")3+%.=$.O6=%5"'.5+*.*%"'(3=%*+%+(.

,.+-6+'+.*,-.5+*.'a%.O"6+*I.S"''.N=%5")3+%.N%".

O"6+'+. (a. 6+-. (=). N%". -"'5=)%a5+'+. =$. $,%.

$%&''-"$. N=%. 'K. '+58?%I. 2-,)"+'5%,'$+%. 6,-.

N=%(*+%#+.+--+%.(6+##+.5+.&-,#+.#=)3='+'*+'+.

,.#%+*(-?3+*I.

2.3.2 Normalavrenningen i Norge

/=%)"-"6%+'','$+'. ,. /=%$+. 8+%+$'+(. (=).

N=%.#-,)"5"*"7.N=%.]:Ca%(.3+%,=5+%.D(+.#"3,<+-.

9I9EI. FM+-5+'5+. '=%)"-. +%. ),55+-6+%5,+%. N=%.

3+%,=5+'.Z;_ZQ;:I.P,$&%.9I]IZ.6,(+%.'=%)"-"6C

%+'','$+'.D*,-.6+'(*%+E.=$.a%-,$.N=%5")3','$.,.

'=%)"-3+%,=5+'.D*,-.O?K%+E7.8+%+$'+*.6+5.8%&#.

"6.+'.$%,55+*.6+%(M='."6.B!SC)=5+--+'.8"(+%*.

3a. +*. -"'5(5+##+'5+. $%,5. )+5. =33-?(','$. Z.

j.Z.#)⁹.D!+-5%,'$.)IlI7.9::]EI.[,5-+%+.'+58?%.

D(+.T$&%.9I9IfE.N=%.N"(*-"'5(C/=%$+.+%.8+%+$'+*.

*,-. Z^i_. ))7. N=%5")3','$+'. ]^_. )). =$. "6C

%+'','$+'.ZZ^:.))I.

. 1(,##+%O+*+'. +%. "'(-a<. *,-. a. 6"%,+%+. N%".

Y. *,-. 9Y. 3%=(+'*7. =$. 5+'. 6,-. '=%)"-*. ?#+. 'a%.

(*?%%+-(+'."6.=)%a5+*."6*"%I.P=%(#M+--+'.,.'=%C )"-"6%+'','$.+%.(*=%.)+--=).&-,#+.-"'5(5+-+%.

=$. '+58?%N+-*I. H+*. +%. +(*,)+%*. +'. '=%)"-"6C

%+'','$.3a.%&'5*.Y^::.))ha%.6+5.e-N=*8%++'.,.

/=%5`=%57.)+'(.'=%)"-"6%+'','$+'.,.),'5C

%+.8%+N%,+.+-6+%.,.0<"5"-+'7.X+(M".=$.P=--5"-.+%.

3a. ]Y:. ))I. P=%5")3','$+'. +%. +(*,)+%*. *,-. a.

6U%+.=6+%.Y::.)).,.a%+*.-"'$(.0(-=`=%5+'7.3a.

R?%-"'5+*.=$.3a.P=(+'O"-6?K".,.J%?'5+-"$I.ka.

8%+=)%a5+'+.,.O?K`+--+*.+%.5+'.+(*,)+%*.*,-.a.

6U%+.),'5%+.+''.Y:.)).,.a%+*I

. R+(='$N=%5+-,'$+'. "6. "6%+'','$+'. 6"C

%,+%+%. 8+*K5+-,$. N%". '+58?%N+-*. *,-. '+58?%N+-*.

"6O+'$,$."6.O6=%.,.-"'5+*.=$.,.O6,-#+*.O?K5+C ,'*+%6"--.N+-*+*.-,$$+%I.H+<+.(*K%+(.,.O=6+5("#.

"6. "##&)&-"(M='. "6. ('?. =). 6,'*+%+'. =$. 'a%.

('?()+-*,'$+'. ,''*%+x+%I. A. T$&%. 9I]I9. +%. 6,(*.

2.3 Hydrologi / skred

+#(+)3-+%.3a.),5-+%+7.O?K+(*+.=$.-"6+(*+.5"$C -,$+. 6+%5,. =6+%. a%+*. ,. '=%)"-3+%,=5+'. N=%. *KC 3,(#+.'+58?%N+-*.,.&-,#+.5+-+%."6./=%$+I.[+'(.

5+. )+(*. #K(*'U%+. N+-*. O"%. O?K+(*. "6%+'','$.

=). 6,'*+%+'. =$. O?(*+'7. O"%. O?K`+--(N+-*. =$.

8%+N+-*.O?K."6%+'','$.=).(=))+%+'.=$.(6U%*.

-"6."6%+'','$.=).6,'*+%+'I.

2.3.3 Snø

A.'=%)"-3+%,=5+'.O"%.(a.$=5*.(=).O+-+./=%$+.

('?5+##+.,.O+-+.+--+%.5+-+%."6.6,'*+%+'I.1''*"C

#+*.+%.),'5%+.'+58?%N+-*.K<+%(*.3a.#K(*+'7.5+%.

('?5+##+*.+%.&(*"8,-*.=$.#"'.)"'$-+.,.)"'$+.

a%I.A.T$&%.9I]I].+%.),5-+%+.)"#(,)"-.a%-,$.('?C )+'$5+. &<%K#*. ,. ),--,)+*+%. 6"''. 6,(*. ,. #"%C

*+*. *,-. 6+'(*%+I. J=*"-*. 6"%,+%+%. )"#(,)"-. a%-,$.

('?)+'$5+.N%".'U%.'&--.*,-.)+%.+''.]:::.))I.

S"%,$O+*+'. "6. ('?5+##+*. 6"%,+%+%. 8+*K5+-,$.

N%".#K(*'U%+.N+-*.)+5.'U%.'&--.5?$'.*,-.O?KC

`+--(N+-*. )+5. =33. )=*. ]::. 5?$'. Q. =$. 8%++'+.

)+5.('?h,(5+##+.O+-+.a%+*I.P,$&%.9I]I].DO?K%+.

#"%*E.6,(+%.6"%,$O+*+'.D5?$'ha%E."6.('?5+##+*.

,.'=%)"-3+%,=5+'I 2.3.4 Flom og tørke

P-=))+%. ,. /=%$+. (#K-5+(. ('?()+-*,'$7. ('?C ()+-*,'$.,.#=)8,'"(M='.)+5.%+$'6U%7.-"'$6"C

%,$. %+$'6U%. =$. ,'*+'(+. (#K8%&55I. B6,-#+. a%C ("#+%. (=). 5=),'+%+%7. 6"%,+%+%. N%". 3+%,=5+. *,-.

3+%,=5+.=$.-"'5(5+-.*,-.-"'5(5+-I.

. J?%#+. #"'. 5+T'+%+(. (=). +*. 6+56"%+'5+.

&'5+%(#&55.3a.6"''.=6+%.+*.(*?%%+.=)%a5+7.=$.

#"'.5+%)+5.(,+(.a.6U%+.+*."66,#.N%".5+*.'=%)"C -+.N=%.6"%,"8-+%.(=).'+58?%7."6%+'','$7.)"%#C.

=$.$%&''6"''.DJ"--"#(+'.=$.6"'.X"'+'7.9::^EI..

. /"*&%-,$+.#-,)"6"%,"(M='+%.$,%.'=+'.$"'C

$+%.(*=%.)"'$+-.3a.'+58?%.,.+*.-+'$%+.*,5(%=).

D)+*+=%=-=$,(#.*?%#+EI.P%"6U%+*."6.'+58?%.N=%C 3-"'*+%. (+$. $M+''=). 5+*. OK5%=-=$,(#+. #%+*(C -?3+*7. =$. #=)8,'+%*. )+5. O?K. N=%5")3','$.

#"'. +*. (*=%*. )"%#6"''(&'5+%(#&55. =33(*a.

DM=%58%&#(*?%#+EI. H+<+. #"'. ,$M+'. $,. -,*+. 6"''.

,.6"((5%"$.=$.&<"33,'$."6.$%&''6"''()"$"C (,'. DOK5%=-=$,(#. *?%#+. (=). ,'#-&5+%+%. 8a5+.

"6%+'','$(C.=$.$%&''6"''(*?%#+EI.

(26)

!%

!!"#$%&'!%!()*+,!-.//0

@%+<*!-6S6.!

\*:B,*C%,*!"&&MU*0!D)*!'B*,11%1+!"QB,*:50!)+!

D)*C'&91%1+!"1,C,*:50!%!1)*&'$9,*%)C,1!.NO.PN/6