Discussion Papers No. 495, February 2007 Statistics Norway, Research Department
Knut Einar Rosendahl
Incentives and quota prices in an emission trading
scheme with updating
Abstract:
Emission trading schemes where allocations are based on updated baseline emissions give firms less incentives to reduce emissions. Nevertheless, according to Böhringer and Lange (2005a), such allocation schemes are cost-effective if the system is closed and allocation rules are equal across firms. In this paper we show that the cost-effective solution may be infeasible if the marginal abatement costs grow too fast. Moreover, if a price cap or banking/borrowing are introduced, the abatement profile is no longer the same as in the case with lump sum allocation. In addition, we show that with allocation based on updated emissions, the quota price will always exceed the marginal abatement costs. Numerical simulations indicate that the quota price most likely will be several times higher than the marginal abatement costs, unless a significant share of allowances are either auctioned or lump sum distributed.
Keywords: Emission trading, Allocation of quotas, Quota prices.
JEL classification: H21, Q28.
Acknowledgement: I am grateful for valuable comments from Mads Greaker and Cathrine Hagem on an earlier draft.
Address: Knut Einar Rosendahl, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
E-mail: knut.einar.rosendahl@ssb.no
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-50 50 150 250 350 450 550
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-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
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€/ton CO2
MAC ı (Ȝ=1) ı (Ȝ=0.9) ı (Ȝ=0.5)
6 D85 1E3D9?> B1D5 9C B19C54 D? @5B35>D D85 AE?D1 @B935 B51<<I CD1BDC D? 1@@B?138 # *85 9>9D91< @B935 9C 13DE1<<I J5B? 1>4 9> I51B D85 @B935 9C =5B5<I DG? D9=5C 89785B D81> # >D5B5CD9>7<I 9> D89C 31C5 D85 D9=5 <17 81C F5BI <9DD<5 9>LE5>35 ?> D85 AE?D1 @B935 1>4 9>9D91<<I D85 AE?D1
@B935 9C 13DE1<<I C<978D<I$ G85> D85 D9=5 <17 9C 89785B *85 5H@<1>1D9?>
9C D81D 9> D89C 31C5 D85 AE?D1 @B935 B9C5C =?B5 B1@94<I D81> D85 49C3?E>D B1D5
?F5B D85 KBCD I51BC *85B56?B5 D85 49C3?E>D54 F1<E5 ?6 6EDEB5 1<<?G1>35C 1B5 G?BD8 =?B5 96 D85 D9=5 <17 9C <1B75
> 9>D5B5CD9>7 B5CE<D 9> 97EB5 9C D81D KB=CM @1I=5>DC 6?B 1<<?G1>35C 1B5 9>9D91<<I $ G9D8 @1BD91< 1E3D9?>9>7 ?B D81> G9D8 @5B 35>D 1E3D9?>9>7 *81D 9C D85 89785B 5=9CC9?> @B935 4?=9>1D5C D85 B54E354
@1I=5>D 4E5 D? 6B55 1<<?G1>35C ?G5F5B 16D5B B5C@53D9F5<I 1>4 I51BC 6?B 1>4 D85 @1I=5>DC 75D <?G5B D81> G9D8 ?><I 1E3D9?>C
#?B5?F5B 9> 1<< 31C5C D85 49C3?E>D54 F1<E5 ?6 6EDEB5 1<<?G1>35C 1B5 89785CD G9D8 ?><I 1E3D9?>9>7 2ED D85 3?CD C1F9>7C 6B?= 6B55 1<<?G1>35C 1B5 =?45B1D5 E><5CC > D85 31C5C @B5C5>D54 9> 97EB5 1>4 @5B 35>D
*89C 9=@<95C D81D # 9C <5CC >571D9F5 9> D89C C35>1B9? D81> 49C@<1I54 9> D85 K7EB5 2ED CD9<< 25<?G J5B? 36 &B?@?C9D9?>
1E3D9?>9>7 B54E35 KB=CM @1I=5>DC 2I B5C@53D9F5<I DG? D89B4C 1>4 @5B 35>D 3?=@1B54 D? ?><I 1E3D9?>9>7
)? 61B G5 81F5 1CCE=54 D81D D85 AE?D1 CICD5= <1CDC 6?B5F5B #?B5 B51<9CD9 31<<I @5B81@C 1 AE?D1 CICD5= G9<< <1CD 6?B C?=5 453145C E5 D? 49C3?E>D9>7 D85 B5CE<DC @B5C5>D54 12?F5 G9<< >?D 25 =E38 1<D5B54 1C <?>7 1C D85 CICD5=
9C 5H@53D54 D? <1CD =?B5 D81> I51BC 25I?>4 D85 <1CD I51B @B5C5>D54 9> D85 K7EB5C 95 =?B5 D81> I51BC 9> D?D1< 6?B 97EB5C -81D 96 D85 CICD5=
9C CE@@?C54 D? <1CD 6?B 1 C8?BD5B D9=5 @5B9?4 *89C 9C C8?G> 9> 97EB5 1CCE=9>7 >? 1E3D9?> 1>4 I51BC D9=5 <17
33?B49>7 D? D85 K7EB5 1 CICD5= D81D G9<< <1CD 6?B ?>5 35>DEBI G9<< 81F5 1<=?CD D85 C1=5 AE?D1 @B935C ?F5B D85 KBCD KF5 453145C 1C 1> 9>K>9D5 CIC D5= 6 D85 CICD5= ?><I <1CDC I51BC D85 AE?D1 @B935 9C C?=5G81D B54E354 1<B514I 6B?= I51B -5 C55 D81D D85 AE?D1 @B935 5AE1<C # 9> D85 <1CD KF5 I51BC 1C 5=9CC9?>C 9> D85C5 I51BC 4? >?D <514 D? 1>I 6EDEB5 1<<?G1>35C *89C KF5 I51BC @5B9?4 81C 9=@<931D9?>C 6?B D85 @B53549>7 KF5 I51BC @5B9?4 G8938 81C 6EBD85B 9=@<931D9?>C ?> D85 @5B9?4 256?B5 5D3 5H@<19>9>7 D85 C55=9>7<I F?<1D9<5 @B935 5F?<F5=5>D G9D8 1 K>9D5 AE?D1 CICD5= $?D5 D81D G9D89> 5138 KF5 I51BC @5B9?4 D85 AE?D1 @B935 9C 9>3B51C9>7 *89C 9C 3?>C9CD5>D G9D8 9>
3B51C9>7 # 1>4 213;G1B4 9>4E3D9?> ?6 D85 9>3B51C9>7 AE?D1 @B935 9> D85
>5HD @5B9?4 -9D8 1 CICD5= D81D <1CDC 6?B ?><I I51BC D85 AE?D1 @B935 4B?@C C97>9K31>D<I 9> 1<< I51BC )D9<< 5F5> 9> I51B 95 I51BC 256?B5 D85 CICD5= D5B=9>1D5C D85 AE?D1 @B935 9C 1<=?CD DG? D9=5C 89785B D81> # -5 D85B56?B5 3?>3<E45 D81D >?D ?><I <?>7<1CD9>7 AE?D1 CICD5=C 2ED 1<C? CICD5=C
<1CD9>7 6?B 1 65G 453145C G9<< 81F5 =1:?B 49F5B75>35 25DG55> D85 AE?D1 @B935 1>4 #
#!.+ 'E?D1 @B935 1>4 # G9D8 49Q5B5>D 4EB1D9?> ?6 D85 AE?D1 CICD5= >? 1E3D9?> 1>4
-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
0 10 20 30 40 50
Year
€/ton CO2
MAC ı (T=inf.) ı (T=100) ı (T=50) ı (T=30)
"5D EC >?G 1CCE=5 D81D D85 5=9CC9?> D1B75D 9C B54E354 ?F5B D9=5 # G9<< D85> 9>3B51C5 2?D8 4E5 D? CDB93D5B D1B75D 1>4 9>3B51C54 45=1>4 *8EC G5 G9<< 5H@53D D85 AE?D1 @B935 D? 45F91D5 5F5> =?B5 6B?= # %> D85 ?D85B 81>4 G9D8 E>381>754 C81B5 ?6 <E=@ CE= ?B 1E3D9?>54 @5B=9DC D85 1<<?31D9?>
B1D5 G9<< 81F5 D? 25 <?G5B 1>4 D85B56?B5 B54E35 D85 >E=25B ?6 1<<?31D9?>C 9>
D85 6EDEB5 @5B9?4C *89C =1I $' D85 45F91D9?> 25DG55> D85 AE?D1 @B935 1>4 # 36 &B?@?C9D9?>
97EB5 C8?GC D85 AE?D1 @B935C 1>4 # 9> DG? 5=9CC9?> B54E3D9?> C35
>1B9?C > 2?D8 C35>1B9?C 95 D85B5 1B5 >? <E=@
CE= ?B 1E3D9?>54 @5B=9DC 1>4 1C 9> 97EB5C 1>4
#!.+ 'E?D1 @B935 1>4 # G9D8 49Q5B5>D 5=9CC9?> B54E3D9?>
613D?BC >? 1E3D9?> 1>4
-50 50 150 250 350 450 550 650
0 10 20 30 40 50
Year
€/ton CO2
MAC (Ȗ=0.99) ı (Ȗ=0.99) MAC (Ȗ=0.97) ı (Ȗ=0.97)
*85 =1B79>1< 121D5=5>D 3?CDC CD1BD ?6 3?EBC5 1D D85 C1=5 <5F5< 9> I51B 2ED D85> 9>3B51C5 =E38 61CD5B G85> 9C B54E354 *85 AE?D1 @B935 CD1BDC 1D 89785B <5F5<C G85> 9C B54E354 H35@D 6?B D85 KBCD 65G I51BC 8?G5F5B D85 B1D9? 9C AE9D5 C9=9<1B 6?B 1>4
6 G5 B54E35 D85 5=9CC9?> B54E3D9?> 613D?B 6EBD85B D85 AE?D1 @B935 1<C? B9C5C 6EBD85B 2ED ?><I D? 1 35BD19> @?9>D *85 =1H9=E= <5F5< ?6
9C 13DE1<<I 13895F54 1D 1B?E>4 -9D8 5F5> CDB?>75B 5=9CC9?> B54E3D9?>C D85 9>9D91< AE?D1 @B935 4B?@C *85 5H@<1>1D9?> 9C D81D B54E354 6EDEB5 5=9CC9?> <5F5<C 1<C? 9=@<I <?G5B 6EDEB5 1<<?31D9?>C 1>4 D8EC B54E354 F1<E5 ?6 81F9>7 8978 5=9CC9?> <5F5<C D?41I 6?B 1 79F5> AE?D1 @B935
@1D8-9D8 @1BD91< 1E3D9?>9>7 G5 75D C9=9<1B 3?>3<EC9?>C 1C 12?F5 95 D85 AE?D1 @B935 9C C97>9K31>D<I B54E354 #?B5?F5B D85 5Q53DC ?6 B54E39>7 D85 5=9CC9?> D1B75D ?F5B D9=5 1B5 =E38 D85 C1=5 1C G9D8 ?><I 5=9CC9?>21C54 1<<?31D9?>C 97EB5
+# *
-9D8 F5BI 8978 AE?D1 @B935 <5F5<C 3?=@1B54 D? # 1 @B935 31@ 3?E<4 25 9>DB?4E354 > D89C 31C5 G5 ;>?G 6B?= &B?@?C9D9?> D81D 96 D85 @B935 31@
9C 29>49>7 D?D1< 121D5=5>D <5F5< 9C B54E354 9> C?=5 I51BC 3?=@1B54 D? 1>
1E3D9?>21C54 1<<?31D9?> #?B5?F5B 133?B49>7 D? &B?@?C9D9?> D85 AE?D1
@B935 9C B54E354 9> 1<< I51BC 256?B5 1>4 9>3<E49>7 D85 I51BC G85> D85 @B935 31@ 9C 29>49>7
"5D EC 9>DB?4E35 1 @B935 31@ 9> D85 C35>1B9? G9D8 3?>CD1>D 5=9C C9?> D1B75D 2ED 53?>?=93 7B?GD8 36 97EB5 *89C 31@ 5AE1<C D85 =1H9
=E= <5F5< ?6 # G85> 45=1>4 253?=5C 9>K>9D5<I <1B75 D -5 6?3EC
?> 5=9CC9?>21C54 1<<?31D9?>C 95 1>4 1CCE=5
#!.+ 'E?D1 @B935 # 1>4 5=9CC9?>C G9D8 @B935 31@
1>4
-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
0 5 10 15 20 25Year30 35 40 45 50
€/ton CO2
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
Index (Emission)
MAC ı (no limit) ı (limit) E (limit) E (BaU)
> D85 E>3?>CDB19>54 @B935 C35>1B9? D85 AE?D1 @B935 @1CC5C 16D5B I51BC 2ED 9D D1;5C I51BC 256?B5 D85 @B935 31@ 9C B513854 9> D85 3?>CDB19>54 C35>1B9? *85 B51C?> 9C D81D G85> 6EDEB5 @B935C 1B5 3?>CDB19>54 D85 F1<E5 ?6 6EDEB5 1<<?31D9?>C 9C B54E354 1>4 D85 9>35>D9F5C D? B54E35 3EBB5>D 5=9CC9?>C 9>3B51C5 *8EC D85 9>9D91< AE?D1 @B935 61<<C 36 &B?@?C9D9?>
C =5>D9?>54 12?F5 5=9CC9?> CD1BDC D? 9>3B51C5 G85> D85 @B935 31@ 9C
B513854 45C@9D5 D85 KH54 5=9CC9?> D1B75D C C8?G> 9> D85 K7EB5 5=9CC9?>
9>3B51C5C C97>9K31>D<I 16D5B D85 KBCD I51BC G9D8 @B935 25<?G D85 31@ 6D5B I51BC D85 5=9CC9?>C 1B5 ?>5 6?EBD8 12?F5 D85 5=9CC9?> D1B75D 5F5> D8?E78
# 9C ?><I @5B 35>D ?6 D85 @B935 31@ 1D D89C D9=5 -9D8 1E3D9?>9>7 3?=29>54 G9D8 D85 C1=5 @B935 31@ D85 31@ G?E<4 >5F5B 253?=5 29>49>7 1>4 D85 5=9CC9?> D1B75D G?E<4 1<G1IC 25 =5D
(%#(! ( )++)0#(!
9>1<<I 3?>C945B D85 31C5 G9D8 E>3?>CDB19>54 21>;9>7 1>4 2?BB?G9>7 G9D89>
1> 5=9CC9?> DB149>7 C385=5 D81D <1CDC I51BC 1C =5>D9?>54 256?B5 E>3?>
CDB19>54 2?BB?G9>7 C55=C E><9;5<I G9D89> 1> 9>K>9D5 C385=5 B?= ?>:53 DEB5 G5 9==5491D5<I ;>?G D81D D85 DB149>7 C385=5 G9<< >?D 25 4I>1=931<<I 3?CD5Q53D9F5 *85 133E=E<1D54 5=9CC9?> 3?>CDB19>D 9C 1CCE=54 D? 25 D85 C1=5 1C D85 ?>5 9> 97EB5 G9D8 95 D9=5C D85 1>>E1< 5=9CC9?>
D1B75D 1@@<954 9> 97EB5C EBD85B=?B5 G9D8 G5 1CCE=5 D81D
9C <9>51B<I B54E354 6B?= 9> I51B D? J5B? 9> I51B B?= &B?@?C9D9?>
G5 D85> ;>?G D81D # 9>3B51C5C D?? 61CD 95 5=9CC9?>C 1B5 B54E354 D??
61CD C? D81D 9>9D91< 121D5=5>D 9C D?? <?G
97EB5 C8?GC D85 5Q53DC ?> 5=9CC9?>C AE?D1 @B935C 1>4 # 9> D89C 31C5 1>4 9> D85 31C5 G9D8 ?><I 1E3D9?>9>7 $?D935 D81D
# CD1BDC =E38 <?G5B 9> D85 6?B=5B 31C5 2ED >? <?>75B 25<?G J5B? 1>4 B9C5C =E38 61CD5B 1C @B5493D54 *85 AE?D1 @B935 9C 3?>CD1>D<I @5B 35>D 89785B G9D8 3?=@1B54 D? 2?D8 B9C5C G9D8 D85 49C3?E>D B1D5
-9D8 1335CC D? 21>;9>7 D85B5 9C >? <?>75B 1>I B1D9?>1<5 6?B >571D9F5 121D5=5>D <5F5<C 9>9D91<<I $5F5BD85<5CC 9> D85 9>9D91< @5B9?4 ?6 D85 CICD5=
5=9CC9?>C 1B5 =E38 =?B5 B54E354 9> D85 31C5 G9D8 1E3D9?>9>7 D81> 9> D85 31C5 G9D8 1<<?31D9?> 21C54 ?> @B5F9?EC 5=9CC9?>C ?B 9>CD1>35 9> D85 KBCD I51BC 121D5=5>D 9C =?B5 D81> DG? D9=5C 89785B 9> D85 6?B=5B 31C5
-85> 21>;9>7 1>4 2?BB?G9>7 1B5 1<<?G54 D?D1< 49C3?E>D54 121D5=5>D 3?CDC ?F5B D85 I51BC 9>3B51C5 2I @5B 35>D 9> D89C 5=9CC9?> DB149>7 C385=5 3?=@1B54 D? D85 3?CD5Q53D9F5 C385=5 C 1 3?=@1B9C?> G9D8 KH54 1>4 3?>CD1>D 5=9CC9?> D1B75D 5138 I51B 1C 9> 97EB5 D85 3?CDC 9>3B51C5 2I
@5B 35>D
21D5=5>D 3?CDC 1B5 31<3E<1D54 1C D85 49Q5B5>35 9> D85 CE= ?6 3?>CE=5B 1>4 @B?4E35B CEB@<EC 25DG55> D85 5=9CC9?> B54E3D9?> C35>1B9?C 1>4 D85 1+ C35>1B9?
