Percentage points. 1 January 2008 – 16 June 2011

(1)

Monetary Policy Report 2/11

Charts

(2)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11

Source: Bloomberg

Chart 1.1 Yield spreads against German 10-year government bonds.

Percentage points. 1 January 2008 – 16 June 2011

Ireland Greece Spain Portugal Italy

(3)

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1) Europe is defined as the euro area and the UK 2) Weighted by GDP (PPP)

Chart 1.2 Consumer prices in G20 – Advanced economies¹⁾ and emerging markets.²⁾ 12-month change. Per cent. January 2003 – April 2011

Advanced economies Emerging markets

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Chart 1.3 Key rates and estimated forward rates as at 10 March 2011 and 16 June 2011¹⁾. Per cent. 1 January 2008 – 31 December 2014²⁾

US Euro area UK

1) Broken lines show estimated forward rates as at 10 March 2011. Thin lines show forward rates as at 16 June 2011. Forward rates are based on Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates 2) Daily figures from 1 January 2008 and quarterly figures as at 16 June 2011

Sources: Bloomberg L.P. and Norges Bank

(5)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Chart 1.4 Yield on 10-year government bonds.

Per cent. 1 January 2003 – 16 June 2011

US

Euro area

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-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1) Most recent observation from the regional network is from May 2011 Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.5 Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in production past three months and expected change in production next six months.

Per cent. 2003 – 2011¹⁾

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-2.5 0 2.5 5 7.5

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Chart 1.6 Consumer prices. 12-month change.

Per cent. January 2003 – May 2011

CPI CPI-ATE ¹⁾

CPIXE ²⁾ CPI-FW ³⁾

20% trimmed mean CPIM⁴⁾

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products

2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009

3) CPI adjusted for frequency of price changes. See Norges Bank Economic commentaries 7/2009 4) Model-based indicator of underlying inflation. See Norges Bank Economic commentaries 5/2010

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0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Chart 1.7 Inflation. Moving 10-year average¹⁾ and variation²⁾ in CPI³⁾.

Per cent. 1981 – 2011

Variation Inflation target CPI

1) The moving average is calculated 10 years back

2) The band around the CPI is the variation in the CPI adjusted for tax changes and

excluding energy products in the average period, measured by +/- one standard deviation 3) CPI projections in this Report form the basis for this estimate

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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0 2.5 5

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1) Average of expectations of employer/employee organisations and economists (financial industry experts, macro analysts and academia)

Chart 1.8 Expected consumer price inflation 2 and 5 years ahead.¹⁾ Per cent. 2003 Q1 – 2011 Q2

Expected inflation 5 years ahead Expected inflation 2 years ahead

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0 0.5 1 1.5

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Chart 1.9 Five-year forward rate¹⁾ differential 5 years ahead between Norway and the euro area.²⁾ Percentage points. 1 January 2003 – 16 June 2011

1) Based on swap rates

2) Expected inflation can be derived from the long term interest rate differential. Due to a higher inflation target in Norway, the long-term interest rate differential will normally be between 0.5 – 1 percentage point, depending on risk premium.

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

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0 50 100 150 200 250

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Interest burden (left-hand scale)

Debt burden (right-hand scale)

Chart 1.10 Household debt burden¹⁾ and interest burden²⁾.

Per cent. Quarterly figures. 1988 Q1 – 2014 Q4¹⁾

1) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividends for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2014.

2) Interest expenses after tax as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividends for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for

2006 – 2014 plus interest expenses.

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-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

1) The squares show the average so far in 2011. A positive slope indicates weaker competitiveness

Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

Chart 1.11 Real exchange rate. Deviation from mean over the period 1970 – 2010. Per cent. 1970 – 2011¹⁾

Relative wages

Relative consumer prices

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps

Chart 1.12 Three-month money market rates.¹⁾ Trading partners.

Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4

Market MPR 2/11 (16 June)

Market MPR 1/11 (10 March)

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.13a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with fan chart.

Per cent. 2008 Q1– 2014 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

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-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between mainland GDP and projected potential mainland GDP

Chart 1.13b Estimated output gap¹⁾ in the baseline scenario with fan chart.

Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

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-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Chart 1.13c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with fan chart.

Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

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-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices.

As from August 2008, the CPIXE is a real time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009

Chart 1.13d Projected CPIXE¹⁾ in the baseline scenario with fan chart.

30% 50% 70% 90%

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1) The Executive Board's decision of 22 June 2011 is not shown in the chart Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.14 Interval for the key policy rate at the end of each strategy period, actual developments¹⁾ and projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario.

Per cent. January 2008 – December 2014

MPR 2/11 MPR 1/11 MPR 3/10 MPR 2/10 Strategy period

3/07 1/08

Key policy rate

2/08

3/08

17 Dec 08 1/09

2/09 3/09 1/10

2/10 3/10 1/11

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0 0.5 1 1.5 2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1) Norges Bank's projections from 2011 Q2

Chart 1.15 Premiums in the Norwegian money market¹⁾

Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4

Premium MPR 2/11 Premium MPR 1/11

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-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 85

88 91 94 97 100 103 106

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

1) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market, transformed into 3-month money market rate

2) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

Chart 1.16 Three-month money market rate differential between Norway¹⁾ and trading partners and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)²⁾. Monthly figures (historical) and quarterly figures (ahead). January 2003 – December 2014

I-44 (left-hand scale)

3-month rate differential (right-hand scale)

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-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1) CPIXE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices.

As from August 2008, the CPIXE is a real time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009

Chart 1.17 Projected inflation¹⁾ and output gap in the baseline scenario.

Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4

Output gap (left-hand scale) CPIXE (right-hand scale)

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.18a Key policy rate. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4

Criterion 1 Criteria 1&2 Criteria 1,2&3 Baseline scenario

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-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Chart 1.18b Output gap. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4

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1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices.

As from August 2008, the CPIXE is a real time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.18c CPIXE¹⁾. Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Chart 1.19 Key policy rate and calculations based on simple monetary policy rules.¹⁾ Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2012 Q1

Taylor rule Growth rule

Rule with foreign interest rates

Key policy rate in the baseline scenario

1) The calculations are based on Norges Bank's projections for the output gap, consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices (CPIXE) and 3-month money market rates. To ensure comparability with the key policy rate, the simple rules are adjusted for risk premiums in 3-month money market rates

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Chart 1.20 Three-month money market rates in the baseline scenario¹⁾ and estimated forward rates²⁾. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4

Estimated forward rates

Money market rates in the baseline scenario

1) Key interest rate plus premium in the Norwegian money market, transformed to 3-month money market rate

2) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps. The blue band shows the highest and lowest forward rates in the period 3 June – 16 June 2011

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Chart 1.21 Key policy rate and interest rate developments that follow from Norges Bank’s average pattern of interest rate setting.¹⁾

Per cent. 2003 Q1 – 2012 Q1

90% confidence interval Key policy rate

1) Interest rate movements are explained by developments in inflation, mainland GDP growth, wage growth and key rates among trading partners. The equation is estimated over the period 1999 Q1 – 2011 Q1. See Staff Memo 3/2008 for further discussion

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.22a Key policy rate in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4

Baseline scenario

Increased price and cost inflation Weaker growth abroad

30% 50% 70% 90%

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-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Chart 1.22b Output gap in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4

Baseline scenario

30% 50% 70% 90%

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0 1 2 3 4 5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Chart 1.22c CPIXE¹⁾ in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios.

Baseline scenario

30% 50% 70% 90%

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 2008, CPIXE is a real time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 Source: Norges Bank

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Chart 1 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 1/11 with fan chart and key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 2/11 (red line).

Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

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-2 -1 0 1 2

2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3

-2 -1 0 1 2

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 2 Factors behind changes in the interest rate forecast since MPR 1/11.

Accumulated contribution. Percentage points. 2011 Q3 – 2014 Q4

Money market premium Accrual

Capacity utilisation Prices and costs

Interest rate abroad Exchange rate

Change in the interest rate forecast

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100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135

US Euro area UK Sweden Japan China India ASEAN¹⁾

Chart 2.1 GDP at constant prices. Index, 2008 Q1 = 100.

2007 Q1 – 2011 Q1

90 95 90

95

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1) Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. GDP-weighted (PPP) Sources: CEIC, IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

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-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Production Import volume E t l

Chart 2.2 Industrial production, exports and imports in emerging economies.

12-month change. Per cent. 3-month moving average.

January 2006 – March 2011

-25 -20 -25

-20

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Thomson Reuters

Export volume

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2 4 6 8 10 12

US Euro area UK¹⁾

Chart 2.3 Unemployment. Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted.

January 2006 – May 2011

0 2 0

2

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1) UK; average unemployment past 3 months Source: Thomson Reuters

Sweden Trading partners

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1 2 3

4 US Euro area UK Sweden

Chart 2.4 Consumer prices excluding food and energy¹⁾. 12-month change.

0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1) HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco for the euro area, UK and Sweden Source: Thomson Reuters

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-2 0 2 4 6 8

US Euro area UK Sweden

Chart 2.5 Unit labour costs. Total economy. Four-quarter change. Per cent.

2006 Q1– 2010 Q4

-4 -4

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: OECD

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0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Brazil Russia China India

Chart 2.6 Core inflation in emerging markets¹⁾. 12-month change.

-4 -2 -4

-2

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1) India; wholesale prices for manufactured goods Source: Thomson Reuters

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40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Chart 2.7 Oil price (Brent Blend), prices for Norwegian petroleum exports¹⁾ (USD/barrel). January 2003 – January 2014

Oil price Futures

Futures as at MPR 1/11 Futures as at MPR 3/10 Petroleum price

0 20 0

20

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

1) Weighted average of Norwegian crude oil and gas exports Sources: Statistics Norway, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

(40)

5 10 15 20 25

Chart 2.8 Prices for coal, oil and natural gas. USD per MMBTU.

January 2003 – January 2014

Coal US¹⁾

Oil¹⁾

Gas UK¹⁾

Gas US¹⁾

Gas Russia Gas Norway²⁾

Futures

0 0

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

1) For June 2011 calculated as daily average

2) Calculation of future gas prices for Norway based on assumptions in 2011 National Budget Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters, Statistics Norway, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

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100 200 300 400

Overall Food

Industrial goods Non-food agriculturals Metals

Chart 2.9 The Economist price indices. USD.

Index, January 2003 = 100. January 2003 – June 2011

0 0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Thomson Reuters

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100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Aluminium Copper Wheat Cotton

Chart 2.10 Commodity prices. USD. Spot and futures prices.

Index, January 2003 = 100. January 2003 – December 2014

Futures

0 100 0

100

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Sources: CME Group and Thomson Reuters

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2.5 5 7.5

CPI CPI-ATE CPIXE

Chart 2.11 CPI, CPI-ATE¹⁾ and CPIXE²⁾. 12-month change. Per cent.

January 2008 – March 2012³⁾

0 0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real-time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009

3) Projections for June 2011 – March 2012 (broken lines). Monthly figures to September 2011, then quarterly figures

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0 2.5 5 7.5

Chart 2.12 CPI-ATE¹⁾. Total and by supplier sector.

12-month change. Per cent. January 2008 – March 2012²⁾

CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Domestically produced goods and services ³⁾

-2.5 0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2) Projections for June 2011 – March 2012 (broken lines). Monthly figures to September 2011, then quarterly figures

3) Norges Bank's estimates

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1 2 3 4 5

50 55 60 65 70 75

Chart 2.13 Enterprises' price expectations next quarter and CPI-ATE¹⁾.

Diffusion index from business tendency survey and four-quarter change CPI-ATE.

1991 Q1 - 2012 Q1²⁾

Business tendency survey (manufacturing, consumer goods for domestic market, smoothed. Two quarters ahead)

CPI-ATE (right-hand scale)

-1 0 40

45 50

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products 2) Projections for 2011 Q2 – 2012 Q1 (broken lines)

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-0.5 0 0.5 1

Chart 2.14 Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods measured in foreign currency. Annual change. 2002 – 2011¹⁾

-1.5 -1 -1.5

-1

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

1) Projections for 2011 Source: Norges Bank

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1 2 3

1 2

3 MPR 2/11

SAM MPR 2/11 MPR 1/11 SAM MPR 1/11

Chart 2.15 CPI-ATE¹⁾. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM²⁾ with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2010 Q1 – 2012 Q1³⁾

30% 50% 70% 90%

0 0

Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products 2) System for averaging models

3) Projections for 2011 Q2 – 2012 Q1 (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(48)

0 2 4

Regional network Mainland GDP growth

Chart 2.16 GDP mainland Norway¹⁾ and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in production past three months and expected change in production next six months. Per cent. 2003 Q1 – 2012 Q1²⁾

-2 -2

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change. Volume

2) Latest observation in the regional network is May 2011. Latest GDP observation is 2011 Q1, projections for 2011 Q2 – 2012 Q1 (broken line)

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120 130 140 150 160

Mainland Norway Total

Chart 2.17 Terms of trade. Index. 2003 Q1 = 100.

2003 Q1 - 2011 Q1

90 100 110

2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010

(50)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Mainland GDP MPR 2/11 SAM

Chart 2.18 GDP mainland Norway. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM¹⁾with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Volume.

Seasonally adjusted. Per cent. 2010 Q1 – 2012 Q1²⁾

30% 50% 70% 90%

-2 -1 0 1

Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12

1) System for averaging models

2) Projections for 2011 Q2 – 2012 Q1 (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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30 40 50 60 70 80

0 1 2 3 4 5

Output gap MPR 2/11 (left-hand scale) Capacity constraints (right-hand scale) Labour supply (right-hand scale)

Chart 2.19 Estimated output gap and capacity constraints and labour supply.¹⁾ Per cent. January 2005 – May 2011

10 20 30

-2 -1 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1) Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problems accommodating an increase in demand, and the share of contacts where production

is constrained by labour supply

Sources: Norges Bank and Norges Bank's regional network

(52)

200 300 400 500

Services Traditional goods

Chart 2.20 Exports from mainland Norway. Constant 2007 prices.

In billions of NOK. 1992 – 2011¹⁾

0 100

1992 1997 2002 2007

1) Projections for 2011

(53)

4 6 8

Household consumption Household real disposable income

Chart 2.21 Household consumption¹⁾and real disposable income²⁾. Annual change. Per cent. 2003 – 2014³⁾

0 2

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 0 2

1) Includes consumption among non-profit organisations. Volume 2) Excluding dividend income

3) Projections for 2011 – 2014 (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(54)

-5 0 5 10 15

Saving ratio excl. dividend income Saving ratio, adjusted ²⁾

Net lending ratio excl. dividend income

Chart 2.22 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income. Per cent. 1992 – 2014¹⁾

-15 -10

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 -15

-10

1) Projections for 2011 – 2014 (broken lines)

2) Adjusted for estimated reinvested dividends for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2014

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800 1000 1200

40 60 80 100 120 140 Chart 2.23 Housing starts¹⁾and order intake for residential construction²⁾.

1992 Q1 - 2011 Q1

Order intake (right-hand scale) Housing starts (left-hand scale)

400 600

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

0 20 40

1) In 1000s of square meters. Seasonally adjusted

2) Value index deflated by the price index for housing investment in the national accounts. Deferred two quarters forward. 2007 = 100

(56)

150 200 250 300 350

Business Housing

Chart 2.24 Investment in mainland Norway excluding public sector.

Constant 2007 prices. In billions of NOK. 1992 – 2014¹⁾

0 50 100

1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

1) Projections for 2011 – 2014

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4 6 8 10 12 14

Business Housing Average business Average housing

Chart 2.25 Investment as share of GDP mainland Norway.

Per cent. Seasonally adjusted. 1978 Q1 – 2011 Q1

0 2 4

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Source: Statistics Norway

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105 110 115 120 125 130 135

Chart 2.26 GDP per hour worked for mainland Norway. Index,

1997 Q1 = 100. Seasonally adjusted. Market value. 1997 Q1 – 2012 Q1¹⁾

95 100 105

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

1) Projections for 2011 Q2 – 2012 Q1 (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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0 1 2

Regional network

Quarterly National Accounts

Chart 2.27 Employment growth¹⁾ and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in employment and expected change in employment next three months. Per cent. 2003 Q1 – 2012 Q1²⁾

-1 -1

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change

2) Latest observation in the regional network is May 2011. Latest observation in the Quarterly National Accounts is 2011 Q1, projections for 2011 Q2 – 2012 Q1 (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(60)

30 40 50 60 70

Net migration Excess of births Population growth

Chart 2.28 Population growth, net migration and excess of births.

Sum of four previous quarters. In 1000s of persons. 2003 Q1 – 2011 Q4¹⁾

0 10 20

2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013

1) Quarterly projections for 2011 Q2 - Q4. The squares show the annual average for 2012 - 2014 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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2 3 4 5

Chart 2.29 Registered unemployment. Percentage of labour force.

Seasonally adjusted. 2003 Q1 – 2012 Q1¹⁾

0 1

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1) Projections for 2011 Q2 – 2012 Q1 (broken line)

Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Annual wage growth Unemployment rate

Chart 2.30 Annual wage growth¹⁾and LFS unemployment. Per cent.

1993 – 2014 ²⁾

0 1

1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 0

1

1) Including estimated costs of increase in number of vacation days and introduction of mandatory occupational pensions

2) Projections for 2011 - 2014 (broken lines)

Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements and Norges Bank

(63)

80 120 160

Chart 2.31 Actual use of oil revenues. The non-oil budget deficit.

0 40

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1) Projections for 2011 Source: Ministry of Finance

(64)

60 90 120 150 180

Chart 2.32 Underlying use of oil revenues. Structural, non-oil deficit and expected real return on the Government Pension Fund Global. Constant 2011 prices.

Structural, non-oil deficit Expected real return

0 30 60

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

(65)

60 90 120 150

Chart 2.33 Petroleum investment. Constant 2007 prices. In billions of NOK.

1992 – 2014¹⁾

0 30

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012