Annual FatalitiesAnnual Fatalities

(1)

For all scenarios

Safety information -Assign expected safety information

Car safety (driver and pass) 1,70 Car safety change (pass) 3,2% Car safety (other) 0,53 Car safety change (other) 3,8%

Bus safety (pass) 0,58 Bus safety change (pass) 0,0% Truck (other) 1,03 Truck (other) 4,2%

(not included in calc.) (not included in calc.)

Air safety (pass) 0,03 Air safety change (pass) 7,4% Bus safety (other) 3,01 Bus safety change (other) 0,0%

Scenario 0 - RC

Conventional Rail safety S0 0,11 1,6% 51,79 0,4%

(pass)

Scenario 1 - DS

(pass)

0,27 2,4% 204,42 1,4%

Inputs

Conventional Rail safety change S1 (other) HSR Comb. & Sep. T. safety change S1 (other) Safety for others (f/bvkm)

Conventional Rail safety S0 (other)

Conventional Rail safety change S0 (other)

HSR Comb. & Sep. T.

safety S1 (others)

Expected annual safety change others Expected annual passenger safety change

Expected annual passenger safety change

Conventional Rail safety S1 (others)

Passenger Safety (f/bpkm)

Conventional Rail safety change S1 (pass)

Expected annual safety change others

Passenger Safety (f/bpkm) Expected annual passenger safety change Safety for others (f/bvkm) Expected annual safety change others

HSR Comb. & Sep. T. safety change S1 (pass)

Safety for others (f/bvkm)

HSR Combined & Separate Tracks safety S1 (pass)

O2P

(2)

Transport information - Assign expected transport values in billion passenger km (bpkm) or billion vehicle kilometers (bvkm) in grey cells for first year in time horizon.

Air Truck

Passenger km Vehicle km

Passenger km Vehicle km Passenger km Vehicle km Passenger km Vehicle km

Conventional rail 2,26 0,0681 16,93 10,79 1,98 0,37 6,89 n.a.

HSR 1,66 0,01 16,56 10,55 1,94 0,37 6,35 n.a.

Conventional rail 2,18 0,0683

Transport information - Assign expected annual change in transport values (%)

Air Truck

Conventional rail 1,25% 0,00% 1,33% 1,33% 1,17% 0,00% 1,21% n.a.

HSR + Conventional rail 0,92% 0,00% 1,34% 1,34% 1,18% 0,00% 1,21% n.a.

Conventional rail 1,26% 0,00%

Economic information

Value of statistical life, VSL (MNOK) 20

Discount rate (%) 4,5%

(only journeys longer than 100 km are included)

Train Car

Scenario 1 (DS) Scenario 0 (RC)

Scenarios

Train Car

Scenarios

Bus

Bus Inputs

Scenario 0 (Present)

Scenario 1 (Combined tracks and separate tracks)

O2P

(3)

Results

Societal transport safety 2024 -without and with HSR Predicted societal transport safety (no. of fatalities) Safety level

(fat. / year)

Safety

development (%) Safety level (fat./ year) Time horizon

(years) RC DS Difference

Railway transport 1 years 40,9 42,4 3,74%

Passengers 0,25 1,6% 0,24 25 years 838 872 4,06%

Others 3,53 0,4% 3,54 40 years 1 202 1 252 4,20%

Passengers HSR - 0,44 60 years 1 582 1 650 4,31%

Others HSR - 1,87

Road transport Car

Passengers 28,82 3,2% 28,20

Others 5,77 3,8% 5,64

Bus

Passengers 1,15 0,0% 1,13

Others 1,11 0,0% 1,11

Air transport

Passengers 0,23 7,4% 0,21

Total 40,85 42,38

O2P

40,85

28,82

5,77

1,15 1,11 0,23 0,25

3,53 0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Annual Fatalities

Societal transport safety 2024 -without HSR (journeys longer than 100 km)

42,38

28,20

5,64

1,13 1,11 0,21 0,24

3,54

0,44 1,87 0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Societal transport safety 2024 -with HSR (journeys longer than 100 km)

(4)

Results

Change in predicted societal transport safety (no. of fatalities) Economic consequences of societal transport safety change (MNOK)

Change DS - RC Time horizon (years) RC DS

1,5 1 years 0 -29

34 25 years 0 -233

50 40 years 0 -492

68 60 years 0 -532

1 years Time horizon (years)

40 years 60 years 25 years

O2P

-29

-233

-492

-532 -600

-500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0

DS

MNOK

With HSR

Economic consequences (net present value) of DS (journeys longer than 100 km)

1 years 25 years 40 years 60 years

2

34

50

68

0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0

Change DS - RC

Change in fatalities

With HSR

Expected change in fatalities, DS compared to RC (journeys longer than 100 km)

(5)

Uncertainty analysis

O2P

50

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Fatalities

With HSR

Uncertainty analysis, Change in fatalities, T = 40 Years (positive numbers denotes that more fatalities will occur with HSR)

5-percentile Mean 95-percentile

-1400,00 -1200,00 -1000,00 -800,00 -600,00 -400,00 -200,00 0,00 200,00 400,00

MNOK

With HSR

Uncertainty analysis, Economic consequences, T = 40 Years (negative numbers denotes that the HSR will result in increased cost due to more fatalities)

(6)

Additional safety analysis

O2P

1 463,6 1 493,6

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Without HSR - RC With HSR -DS

Bpaxkm

Scenarios

Total BPaxkm, T = 40 Years (journeys longer than 100 km)

Mean

-0,025 -0,020 -0,015 -0,010 -0,005 0,000

2024 2033 2042 2051 2060 2069 2078

Fatality change/Bpaxkm

Year Change in fatalities over time (fatalities/Bpkm) RC-DS

Safety change (fatalties/Bpkm), RC-DS

1,53

1,20

1,01

0,79

0 1 2

Change DS - RC

With HSR

Expected change in fatalities per year, DS compared to RC

(journeys longer than 100 km)

Year 1 Year 25 Year 40 Year 60

(7)

Scenario 0 - RC

(pass)

Scenario 1 - DS

(pass)

0,22 2,5% 145,54 1,6%

S2P

Inputs

HSR Comb. & Sep. T.

safety S1 (others)

(8)

Air Truck

HSR 1,56 0,01 16,57 10,55 1,94 0,37 6,45 n.a.

Air Truck

S2P

Scenario 1 (Combined tracks and separate tracks) Inputs

Scenarios

Train Car

Scenarios

Bus

Train Car

(9)

Results

(fat. / year)

Safety

Others 3,53 0,4% 3,53 40 years 1 202 1 232 2,56%

Others HSR - 1,37

Road transport Car

Passengers 28,82 3,2% 28,20

Others 5,77 3,8% 5,64

Bus

Passengers 1,15 0,0% 1,12

Others 1,11 0,0% 1,11

Air transport

Passengers 0,23 7,4% 0,21

Total 40,85 41,79

S2P

40,85

28,82

5,77

1,15 1,11 0,23 0,25

3,53 0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

41,79

28,20

5,64

1,12 1,11 0,21 0,24

3,53

0,35 1,37 0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

(10)

Results

0,9 1 years 0 -18

21 25 years 0 -142

31 40 years 0 -300

41 60 years 0 -324

S2P

40 years 60 years 25 years 1 years Time horizon (years)

-18

-142

-300

-324 -350

-300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0

DS

MNOK

With HSR

1

21

31

41

0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 45,0

Change DS - RC

With HSR

(11)

S2P

31

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Fatalities

With HSR

-1200,00 -1000,00 -800,00 -600,00 -400,00 -200,00 0,00 200,00 400,00 600,00

MNOK

With HSR

(12)

S2P

1 463,6 1 492,6

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Bpaxkm

Scenarios

Mean

-0,006 -0,005 -0,004 -0,003 -0,002 -0,001 0,000

2024 2033 2042 2051 2060 2069 2078

0,93

0,73

0,61

0,46

0 1

Change DS - RC

With HSR

(13)

Scenario 0 - RC

(pass)

Scenario 1 - DS

(pass)

0,29 2,5% 133,40 1,6%

Inputs

HSR Comb. & Sep. T.

safety S1 (others)

H1P

(14)

Air Truck

HSR 2,37 0,02 16,45 10,48 1,92 0,37 6,14 n.a.

Air Truck

Train Car

Scenarios

Train Car

Scenarios

Bus

Bus Inputs

H1P

(15)

Results

(fat. / year)

Safety

Others 3,53 0,4% 3,53 40 years 1 202 1 280 6,54%

Others HSR - 2,88

Road transport Car

Passengers 28,82 3,2% 28,01

Others 5,77 3,8% 5,60

Bus

Passengers 1,15 0,0% 1,11

Others 1,11 0,0% 1,11

Air transport

Passengers 0,23 7,4% 0,20

Total 40,85 43,36

H1P

40,85

28,82

5,77

1,15 1,11 0,23 0,25

3,53 0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

43,36

28,01

5,60

1,11 1,11 0,20 0,24

3,53

0,68 2,88 0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

(16)

Results

2,5 1 years 0 -48

54 25 years 0 -377

79 40 years 0 -777

104 60 years 0 -835

H1P

-48

-377

-777

-835 -900

-800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0

DS

MNOK

With HSR

3

54

79

104

0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0 120,0

Change DS - RC

With HSR

(17)

H1P

79

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Fatalities

With HSR

-1600,00 -1400,00 -1200,00 -1000,00 -800,00 -600,00 -400,00 -200,00 0,00

MNOK

With HSR

(18)

H1P

1 463,6

1 508,2

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Bpaxkm

Scenarios

Mean

-0,045 -0,040 -0,035 -0,030 -0,025 -0,020 -0,015 -0,010 -0,005 0,000

2024 2033 2042 2051 2060 2069 2078

Safety change (fatalties/Bpkm), RC- DS

2,51

1,83

1,48

1,11

0 1 2 3

Change DS - RC

With HSR

(19)

Scenario 0 - RC

(pass)

Scenario 1 - DS

(pass)

0,36 2,4% 39,22 0,0%

Inputs

HSR Comb. & Sep. T.

safety S1 (others)

BS1P

(20)

Air Truck

HSR 0,28 0,00 16,86 10,74 1,98 0,37 6,82 n.a.

Air Truck

Train Car

Scenarios

Train Car

Scenarios

Bus

Bus Inputs

BS1P

(21)

Results

(fat. / year)

Safety

Others 3,53 0,4% 3,53 40 years 1 202 1 208 0,51%

Others HSR - 0,17

Road transport Car

Passengers 28,82 3,2% 28,70

Others 5,77 3,8% 5,74

Bus

Passengers 1,15 0,0% 1,14

Others 1,11 0,0% 1,11

Air transport

Passengers 0,23 7,4% 0,23

Total 40,85 40,98

BS1P

40,85

28,82

5,77

1,15 1,11 0,23 0,25

3,53 0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

40,98

28,70

5,74

1,14 1,11 0,23 0,25

3,53

0,10 0,17 0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

(22)

Results

0,1 1 years 0 -2

4 25 years 0 -21

6 40 years 0 -54

10 60 years 0 -62

BS1P

-2

-21

-54

-62 -70

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0

DS

MNOK

With HSR

0

4

6

10

0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0

Change DS - RC

With HSR

(23)

BS1P

6

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Fatalities

With HSR

-1000,00 -800,00 -600,00 -400,00 -200,00 0,00 200,00 400,00 600,00 800,00

MNOK

With HSR

(24)

BS1P

1 463,6 1 468,9

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Bpaxkm

Scenarios

Mean

-0,003 -0,002 -0,002 -0,001 -0,001 0,000 0,001 0,001 0,002 0,002 0,003

2024 2033 2042 2051 2060 2069 2078

0,12 0,16 0,17 0,18

0 1

Change DS - RC

With HSR