Inflation Report

Inflation Report ¹ 02

F e b r u a r y

Reports from the Central Bank of Norway No 1/2002

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Norges Bank's Inflation Report

In accordance with the Government regulation of 29 March 2001, Norges Bank’s implementation of monetary policy shall be oriented towards maintaining low and stable inflation. The inflation target is set at 21⁄2 per cent. The key interest rate is set on the basis of an overall assessment of the inflation outlook, normally two years ahead.

The Inflation Report discusses developments in the Norwegian economy and other factors that influence the inflation outlook. In addition, the balance of risks and uncertainty associated with the inflation projections are assessed. The main aspects of the Inflation Report are presented to the members of the Executive Board who discuss the contents of the report before it is published. The analyses in Norges Bank’s Inflation Report, together with the Bank’s current assessment of the outlook for price and cost inflation and developments in the money market and foreign exchange market, provide a basis for decisions concerning monetary policy instruments.

ISSN 1502-2730

The Inflation Report is published three times a year, and together with Financial Stability, is part of Norges Bank’s series of reports. The report is also available on Norges Bank’s website:

http://www.norges-bank.no.

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costs NOK 250 per year (incl. VAT). To subscribe please transfer NOK 250 to bank account no. 0629.96.26820 or write to:

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E-mail: [email protected]

Editor: Svein Gjedrem

Design: Grid Strategisk Design AS

Setting and printing: Reclamo grafisk senter AS The text is set in 111⁄2 point Times

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Inflation Report 1/2002

Low-growth trap, but stable inflation...

4

1. Recent developments...

6

1.1 The real economy ... 6

1.2 Consumer price developments ... 9

2. The economic outlook ...

12

2.1 International developments ... 12

2.2 Domestic demand ... 14

2.3 Employment and production ... 17

Box:

− Evaluation of Norges Bank's projections for 2000...19

3. Inflation projections ...

21

3.1 Domestic inflationary impulses... 21

3.2 International inflationary impulses ... 21

3.3 The inflation outlook ... 22

3.4 Risks to the inflation outlook... 26

Boxes:

− Wage growth...24

− Have Norges Bank's interest rate decisions been anticipated? ... 29

Statistical annex ...

31

The cut-off date for the Inflation Report

was 21 February 2002

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Low-growth trap, but stable inflation

While high oil prices have resulted in sizeable revenues and surpluses on the current account and government budgets, growth in mainland output has been low over the last three years, at only 11⁄4% per year. The international downturn over the past year has only had a limited impact on activity in Norway. To the contrary, the sluggish growth rate is attributable to the supply side of the Norwegian economy.

Extensive labour reforms have limited the supply of labour.

Measured by person-hours, employment has fallen by 0.4%

annually in this period. At the same time, labour shortages have persisted in many sectors and overt unemployment has been stable and low.

Labour market tightness is also reflected in a sharp rise in real labour costs. Labour costs have risen in real terms by 3 per cent annually over the last three years and the increase has been substantially stronger than productivity growth in the mainland economy.

A sharp rise in real labour costs intensifies the need for rationalisation and increased efficiency. This may have contributed to increased flows of discouraged workers into social security and other social schemes that have contributed to the fall in employment. Pressures on profitability in the business sector may also curb investment and hamper the development of new production capacity in the mainland economy. The sharp rise in labour costs may prove to be a source of increased overt unemployment.

Even though labour costs have exhibited a sharp rise, consumer price inflation has been close to 21⁄2% in recent years. The low and stable rate of inflation reflects unchanged or declining prices for imported goods. Higher imports, particularly of clothing and footwear, from low- cost countries such as China have been an important factor.

Moreover, since summer 2000 the Norwegian krone has appreciated and helped to keep inflation at bay.

Since the presentation of the last Inflation Report in October 2001, the risk of a deep and prolonged international downturn has been reduced somewhat. Oil prices have remained at around USD 20 per barrel. The projections for petroleum investment have been revised upwards considerably. Norwegian households are more optimistic about the outlook, and there are signs that growth in private consumption is picking up. Credit growth has remained high.

In the period ahead, the nominal rise in labour costs is expected to edge down. Prices for imported goods will probably pick up as growth in the global economy recovers

4 5

and the effects of the substantial changes in the pattern of trade start to recede. All in all, we estimate that price inflation, with an unchanged interest rate, will be 21⁄2% two years ahead.

This projection is based on the technical assumption that the krone exchange rate remains stable. Annual wage growth is projected at 5% in the period ahead. If profitability in the manufacturing sector is of less importance than earlier and wage-wage spirals in sheltered sectors of greater importance, the nominal rise in labour costs will be higher. At the same time, the external economic environment is uncertain, and it may take longer before import prices begin to pick up.

Overall, the risks surrounding the inflation projection are considered to be balanced.

Svein Gjedrem 21 February 2002

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1.1 The real economy

Weak external environment in 2001

Economic growth stagnated in the US and the euro area in the last three quarters of 2001. Growth remained somewhat firmer in the UK, but was moderate towards the end of the year. In Sweden, growth came to a halt in the first quarter of last year. In most countries, public and private consumption fuelled growth in demand, while the fall in capital formation and inventories has exerted downward pressure. GDP has fallen in Japan.

Industrial output, exports and the labour market remain weak in the US. Businesses have rapidly adjusted their workforce in response to lower production. The unemployment rate rose from 4.9% in September to 5.6% in January. However, the number of new unemployment benefit claimants and the fall in industrial output have tapered off in recent months.

Monetary policy and fiscal easing have supported continued growth in private consumption. Equity prices, commodity prices and long-term interest rates have picked up since the sharp decline following the events of 11 September (see Chart 1.2). Consumer and business confidence indicators are more positive.

Destocking and lower investment and output growth have been common features of developments in many of the euro area countries. Economic activity has been especially weak in Germany, even though private consumption edged up last year and a weak euro has contributed to an increase in net exports. In France, consumption growth has been somewhat stronger and investment has fallen by a smaller margin than in Germany.

Stable oil prices

Oil prices fell sharply in the wake of the events of 11 September (see Chart 1.3). Developments towards the end of last year were marked by lower demand for oil, and were accompanied by growing uncertainty as to how OPEC countries would react if oil prices were to fall below the official target range of USD 22-28 per barrel. Weak state finances in many OPEC countries may have induced OPEC countries to sustain oil prices and strengthen solidarity among member countries. In December, the OPEC countries together with Russia, Mexico and Norway decided to limit oil production. This may have contributed to stabilising oil prices around USD 20 per barrel. At the same time, commercial and strategic oil stocks have been built up in the US, which has also contributed to maintaining oil prices.

Recent developments

Source: EcoWin

Chart 1.1GDP growth in the US, the euro area and Japan. Percentage change from previous quarter (annual rate)

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4

US Euro area Japan 6

Sources: International Petroleum Exchange and Norges Bank

Chart 1.3Oil price, Brent Blend. USD per barrel

0 10 20 30 40

1999 2000 2001 2002

0 10 20 30 40

Long rates Prices for industrials

Wilshire 5000

Sources: Norges Bank, EcoWin, The Economist and Wilshire Associates

Chart 1.2Equity prices and long-term interest rates in the US and prices for industrials (USD). Index, Week 1 in 2001 = 100

70 80 90 100 110

Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 70 80 90 100 110

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1

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The krone has appreciated

In response to the slowdown in the world economy, monetary policy has been relaxed markedly, particularly in the US. In the course of last year, the Federal Reserve cut the target for the federal funds rate by 4.75 percentage points. The European Central Bank lowered its key rate by 1.5 percentage points last year. Norges Bank reduced its key rate by 0.5 percentage point in December. The deposit rate is now 6.5%. The interest rate differential against trading partners has been a little more than 2 percentage points since spring 2000 and a good 3 percentage points since March 2001. This may be one of the reasons why the krone has appreciated over the last year and a half (see Chart 1.4). The krone exchange rate is now stronger than in October when the previous Inflation Report was published.

Lower exports

The global downturn started to have ripple effects on the Norwegian economy during autumn and winter. Prices for important Norwegian export products fell, and markets for many export industries have weakened. Mainland business investment has declined. The Norwegian stock market exhibited a sharp decline in September, but recovered partially towards the end of the year. Recently, the stock market has been stable. Manufacturing production has been far more stable than among our trading partners. The order backlog in Norwegian manufacturing enterprises edged down in the latter half of 2001, but still remains above the average for recent years, primarily reflecting the sizeable orders in the shipbuilding industry. Manufacturing industry’s expectations as to production and employment fell in the third quarter last year and remained stable in the fourth quarter. The number of industrial leaders who expect a continued fall is now the same as the number who expect an increase in production.

The volume of traditional exports fell by close to 6%, seasonally adjusted, between the second and third quarter of 2001, following vigorous growth in the first half of the year.

Fish, iron and steel exports exhibited the steepest declines.

However, exports picked up in the fourth quarter. After rising sharply through 2000, prices have fallen for most export goods. Prices for traditional exports fell by a little more than 6% between the second half of 2000 and the second half of last year (see Chart 1.5). Salmon prices dropped by close to 20% in 2001, after reaching record levels the previous year. Higher supply on the world market has resulted in lower salmon prices, narrower profit margins and a loss of market shares. The salmon agreement with the EU stipulates a minimum price for Norwegian salmon exports. In 2001, this probably contributed to a loss of market shares for Norwegian producers.

Source: Norges Bank

Import-weighted exchange rate (Week 1 1995=100) Trade-weighted exchange rate (1990=100)

Chart 1.4Effective NOK exchange rates. Import- weighted exchange rate and trade-weighted exchange rate

90 95 100 105 110 115

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 90 95 100 105 110 115

Source: Statistics Norway

Volume Price

Chart 1.5Traditional merchandise exports. Volume and price. Percentage rise on same quarter previous year

-10 0 10 20 30

1999 2000 2001

-10 0 10 20 30

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Household optimism

Norwegian household expectations as to economic developments exhibited a moderate fall last year as a result of the fall-off in world growth, the slump in equity prices, a slight increase in unemployment and a largely uncertain environment (see Chart 1.6) However, according to Norsk Gallup’s confidence indicator, household confidence in their own financial situation remained at a high level also during the autumn months. Household optimism with regard to the domestic economy gradually weakened, but without expectations of any effects on their own situation.

Overall consumer confidence rose sharply in the first quarter of 2002, with a particularly marked increase in household confidence in their current financial situation and their situation one year ahead. The index for measuring household expectations about their financial situation is now at the highest level since the index was first introduced in 1992.

Private goods consumption exhibited a sharp pick-up towards the end of last year, after remaining relatively stable through the first three quarters (see Chart 1.7).

Private goods consumption increased by 1.3% between the third and fourth quarter. According to preliminary figures, however, spending on services remained unchanged during the same period. In spite of this, growth in private consumption was 1⁄4 percentage point higher last year than projected in the October Inflation Report.

Housing investment is still on the rise. Growth is now estimated at 8% between 2000 and 2001, following 12%

growth the previous year. Housing starts slowed somewhat towards the end of last year. House prices rose by about 5% between 2000 and 2001. Adjusted for normal seasonal variations, house prices exhibited a moderate rising trend towards the end of last year. The figures for January confirm this picture.

Household gross debt continued to expand sharply and was 11.4% higher in December than one year earlier (see Chart 1.8). This can be explained by a continued rise in house prices, higher housing investment and high turnover in the housing market.

Higher unemployment in the eastern part of southern Norway

Employment stagnated early last autumn, but picked up again towards the end of the year. Unemployment edged up in the latter half of 2001 (see Chart 1.9). In January 2002, registered unemployment was 3.3%, or 0.3 percentage point higher than one year earlier. The increase in unemployment has mainly occurred in service sectors in the eastern part of

1999 2000

Source: Statistics Norway

2001

Chart 1.7Goods consumption index. 1995 = 100.

Seasonally adjusted volume

108 110 112 114 116 118 120 122

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 108 110 112 114 116 118 120 122

Credit to households

C2 C3 mainland Norway

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.8The credit indicator (C2), credit to households and total credit to the non-financial private sector and municipalities, mainland Norway (C3). 12-month rise. Per cent

0 5 10 15

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 0

5 10 15 -35

-20 -5 10 25 40

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 -35 -20 -5 10 25 40

Sources: Norsk Gallup Institutt AS and Norges Bank Combined confidence indicator

Confidence in own financial situation

Confidence in country's economy

Chart 1.6Consumer confidence indicator (level).

Estimated trend.

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southern Norway (see Chart 1.10). Many enterprises in the ICT industry, travel industry, media and some retail sectors have reduced their workforce and cut costs. Unemployment has increased for occupational groups such as systems developers and programmers, administrative managers, salaried employees, and service and shop workers.

Manufacturing unemployment has declined.

Although it is natural to attribute the increase in unemployment and weaker activity in the Norwegian economy to the global economic slowdown, the events of 11 September and the associated contagion effects, it is likely that some industries would have scaled down activities in spite of these developments. Profitability has been deteriorating in some segments of the aviation industry in Norway for a long time and activities are now being scaled back. Retail trade is faced with intensified foreign competition. Border trade with Sweden has increased substantially in recent years, which has placed pressure on some retailers, particularly in the eastern part of southern Norway and northward along the Swedish border. In the ICT industry, many companies, both telecom companies and consultancies, internet companies and companies that sell and service IT equipment, have probably had growth and earnings expectations that have been too high. Stock market developments reflected these expectations for a long period.

The global decline in the IT and telecom sectors triggered a sharp fall in equity values in most countries, including Norway. A few large and nearly 200 smaller Norwegian ICT companies declared bankruptcy last year. The number of bankruptcies in the ICT sector increased by 45% between 2000 and 2001.

GDP growth in the mainland economy slowed in the last half of 2001. Both in the third and fourth quarter, GDP expanded by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% compared with the previous quarter. Mainland GDP expanded by 1.0% between 2000 and 2001. Growth was particularly strong in service sectors.

Two additional vacation days made a negative contribution to growth last year. Lower electricity production compared with the previous year also contributed to pushing down growth.

1.2 Consumer price developments Higher rise in service prices

Consumer price inflation adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) has been fairly stable since the summer of 2000 (see Chart 1.11). The year-on- year rise in the CPI-ATE was 2.5% in January after reaching 2.7% in December. The average rise in the CPI-ATE was 2.6% between 2000 and 2001.

Whole country Western Norway

Eastern Norway Central and

northern Norway

Southern Norway

Source: Directorate of Labour

Chart 1.10Change in unemployment on same month previous year. In thousands of persons

-5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9

Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02-5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 0

25 50 75 100 125

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 0 25 50 75 100 125

LFS unemployment

1)LFS unemployment: 3-month moving average Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour

Registered unemployed and labour market programmes

Registered unemployed

Chart 1.9Number unemployed (LFS), number of registered unemployed and persons in labour market programmes. In thousands. Seasonally adjusted¹⁾

1)Norges Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway

2)Norges Bank's estimates

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Goods and services produced in Norway

CPI-ATE

Imported consumer goods

Chart 1.11Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE).

Total¹⁾and distributed by imported and domestically produced goods and services²⁾. 12-month rise. Per cent

-3 -1 1 3 5

1999 2000 2001 2002 -3

-1 1 3 5

10 11

The rate of increase in service prices including house rent has picked up. After falling in the period to summer, the year-on-year rise in the house rent index moved up from 3.3% in August to 4.7% in January (see Chart 1.12). House rent accounts for 17.4% of the total CPI. Prices for transport services have also exhibited a marked rise. Airfares have increased in particular, rising by 20% in the year to January 2001, despite lower fuel prices. Prices for rail transport rose by 7.6% in the same period.

Wage growth picked up in 2001, with annual wage growth reaching an average 5%, up from 4.4% in 2000. The rise in labour costs is estimated at 53⁄4%, reflecting the introduction of two additional vacation days.

The effect of high wage growth in recent years is reflected in the rise in prices for services with wages as the dominant cost factor. Price inflation for this component has hovered around 3-4 percentage points above the general rise in consumer prices (see Chart 1.12). In January, prices for these services were 5.2% higher than one year earlier.

The rise in prices for Norwegian produced goods and services has edged up since last summer. In January the rise in prices for these goods and services, adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products, was 4.1% in the year to January 2002 (see Chart 1.11)

Lower prices for imported consumer goods

After rising sharply in 2000, the rise in international producer prices slowed through last year. In recent months, producer prices have fallen. Oil price developments have had a substantial impact. Internationally, consumer price inflation also edged down towards the end of last year.

Prices for imported consumer goods have fallen steadily since mid-1999 (see Chart 1.13). Adjusted for tax changes, prices for these goods were 1.1% lower in January than one year earlier. The main goods in the component “imported consumer goods” are clothing, footwear and cars. Clothing prices normally fall from December to January because of sales. This year, prices dropped by more than 11%, setting a new record. Imported consumer goods account for 27%

of the CPI.

Lower taxes push down CPI inflation

Consumer prices rose by 3.0% between 2000 and 2001. The year-on-year rate of increase was highest in May when it passed 4.3%. Price inflation exhibited a marked fall during the latter half of 2001. The year-on-year rate of increase was 1.3% in January 2002 (see Chart 1.14).

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Imported consumer goods

Cars

Clothing and footwear

Chart 1.13Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes. Cars, clothing and footwear and imported consumer goods. 12-month rise. Per cent

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

1999 2000 2001 2002

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

Source: Statistics Norway Services with wages as a dominant price factor

House rent Transport services

CPI

Chart 1.12Consumer prices by delivery sector.

12-month rise. Per cent

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

1999 2000 2001 2002

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

0 1 2 3 4

1999 2000 2001 2002

0 1 2 3 4

CPI-AT: CPI adjusted for tax changes

CPI-ATE: CPI adj. for tax changes and ex energy products

1)Norges Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank CPI CPI-AT¹⁾

CPI-ATE¹⁾

Chart 1.14 Consumer prices (CPI).Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. 12-month rise. Per cent

10 11

The variation in the inflation rate primarily reflects changes in VAT and some other indirect taxes. The VAT rate was increased from 23% to 24% on 1 January 2001. Energy taxes were also changed. As from 1 July, VAT on food was halved and the VAT base for services was broadened. At the same time, petrol taxes were reduced. Alcohol and electricity taxes were reduced from 1 January 2002.

Price inflation is also influenced by fluctuations in energy prices. Petrol prices fell as a result of lower oil prices last autumn. In January, petrol prices were 8.3% lower than one year earlier. Electricity prices have been relatively stable since the summer of last year. Normally, electricity prices exhibit a seasonal decline in the spring and an increase in autumn. In 2001, this seasonal pattern was broken. Low electricity production and high demand pushed up prices in the first six months of the year. In December, electricity prices were 20% higher than one year earlier (see Chart 1.15). Electricity prices showed a further rise in January as a result of higher grid charges. Prices rose by 4% between December and January. All in all, the fall in petrol prices are offset by the increase in electricity prices.

-20 -5 10 25 40

1999 2000 2001 2002

-20 -5 10 25 40

1)Electricity accounts for 3.3% of the total CPI. Fuel and lubricants account for 4.2% of the total CPI Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Fuel and lubricants Electricity

Chart 1.15Consumer prices. Energy-related products¹⁾. 12-month rise. Per cent

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2.1 International developments Continued risk of a prolonged downturn

The outlook for global economic growth has remained virtually unchanged since the October Inflation Report.

Following sluggish developments throughout 2001, an expansionary monetary and fiscal policy combined with lower oil prices is expected to fuel demand through the year. The reduction in inventories last year implies that an increase in demand will gradually translate into a rise in production. The easing of economic policy has been particularly strong in the US. Key rates have also been reduced in Europe. In the euro area, there are no plans for substantial easing of fiscal policy other than allowing automatic stabilisers to have an effect. Strong growth in public demand is expected in the UK and tax cuts are expected in Sweden. There are no prospects for an early recovery in Japan.

There is still a risk of a deep and prolonged downturn in the global economy, but in our assessment, the risk has diminished since the last Inflation Report. There is less uncertainty associated with the situation in Afghanistan. A rise in equity prices and higher yields on government bonds indicate that financial market participants now believe that there is less uncertainty than in the immediate aftermath of 11 September.

Modest recovery in the US economy

Our projections are based on the assumption that GDP growth in the US will recover through 2002 (see Chart 2.1).

There is still uncertainty, but a number of indicators suggest that a turnaround is imminent. Increased confidence in future economic developments and high real wage growth may push up consumption growth and generate positive GDP growth from the second quarter of 2002. Growth will pick up further as companies increase investment.

The upturn is expected to be moderate. Household consumption has increased throughout the downturn, resulting in a low saving ratio (see Chart 2.2). Housing investment has also remained high. Although business investment fell sharply last year, it is at a relatively high level in relation to GDP. Corporate profitability and capacity utilisation are low. Consequently, we expect moderate growth in consumption and that it will take time before investment increases. Although growth is projected to pick up, GDP growth in 2002 is estimated at only 3⁄4 percentage point partly reflecting weak developments at the end of last year and the beginning of this year. GDP growth is projected at 31⁄4% in 2003.

The economic outlook 2

Table 2.1 GDP estimates.

Percentage change from previous year.

2002 2003 2004

US 3⁄4 31⁄4 31⁄2

Japan -1 3⁄4 11⁄2

Germany 3⁄4 21⁄4 21⁄4

France 11⁄2 21⁄2 21⁄2

UK 13⁄4 21⁄2 21⁄2

Sweden 11⁄2 21⁄2 21⁄2

Norway's trading

partners¹⁾ 11⁄4 21⁄2 21⁄2

Euro area²⁾ 11⁄4 21⁄2 21⁄2

1) Weighted by export weightings

2) Weighted by the IMF's GDP weightings adjusted for purchasing power

Source: Norges Bank

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 020 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Saving ratio (left-hand scale) Net wealth (right-hand scale)

Sources: Datastream, EcoWin, the Federal Reserve and Bureau of Economic Analysis

Chart 2.2Private saving and household net wealth in the US as a percentage of disposable income

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Norges Bank

Chart 2.1 Quarterly change in US GDP, annualised.

Contribution to growth in volume. Seasonally adjusted. Per cent

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

2000 2001 2002

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

Private consumption 10

Private investment

Gov’t consumption and investment

Net export Inventories GDP

12 13

A recovery in the US will gradually lead to stronger growth in the global economy. Our projections are based on the assumption that the path for Europe will be virtually the same as in the US, although growth is expected to be somewhat lower as a result of less monetary and fiscal stimulus. In addition, it will probably take some time before higher production starts to fuel employment growth and household demand.

So far, confidence in the economic outlook has not improved to the same extent in the euro area as in the US (see Charts 2.3 and 2.4). The assessment of future developments is somewhat more positive, however, both in the household and business sectors. Growth projections for the euro area remain virtually unchanged. Among the largest economies, performance growth is strongest in France. In Germany, growth prospects are weaker. The Ifo Business Climate Index, which measures German companies’ confidence regarding employment and output, has risen somewhat the last few months. However, this index remains at a low level, indicating that German industrial output will be low the next few months. The growth forecast for Germany has been revised downwards somewhat this year.

In Sweden, tax reductions will fuel private demand while a weak Swedish krona implies that enterprises will rapidly be able to reap the benefits of higher global demand. In the UK, demand is being supported by continued strong growth in public expenditure.

The outlook in Japan is still weak. Banks are in a vulnerable position. Household real income and wealth are declining.

Due in part to falling prices, purchases of consumer durables are being postponed. There are no prospects of an early recovery in demand and output in Japan, even though an international upswing and a depreciation of the Japanese yen may gradually fuel export growth. The outlook has improved somewhat for most other Asian countries.

The international downturn is contributing to lower export growth

Manufacturing accounts for nearly 90% of traditional exports from Norway, while the remainder is primarily fresh fish. In Norway, the international downturn has had less impact on exports than in many other countries, although manufacturing production was low in December. This is probably due to different industry structures. The industrial ICT sector in Norway is very small. The global downturn last year had an especially strong impact on this sector. On the other hand, Norway did not experience the strong upswing in the latter part of the 1990s and the beginning of 2000 (see Chart 2.5).

The capital-intensive process industry, which accounts for more than 50% of traditional exports, is the most export-

80 95 110 125 140 155

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5

Sources: EcoWin, the European Commission and The Conference Board

US(left-hand scale)

Euro area (right-hand scale)

Chart 2.3Consumer confidence indicators in the US and the euro area

90 100 110 120 130

90 100 110 120 130

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Sources: EcoWin and Statistics Norway Sweden Euro area US

Norway

Chart 2.5Industrial output. Seasonally adjusted indices, January 1997=0

35 40 45 50 55 60

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-30 -20 -10 0 10 20

Sources: EcoWin, ISM and the European Commission US (left-hand scale)

Euro area (right-hand scale)

Chart 2.4Business sentiment indicators in the US and the euro area

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oriented sector of Norwegian manufacturing. Lower spot prices have had little effect on the aluminium industry’s output and exports. The market situation for the ferroalloys industry in particular has deteriorated. Some sectors of the paper and pulp industry are also facing reduced demand and lower prices. In the more labour-intensive technology industry, new orders declined somewhat through the autumn, both in the mechanical and the electro technical industries (see Chart 2.6). The global economic downturn has caused further difficulties for finished goods sectors that produce for the international consumer market.

We expect a decline in exports in 2002 compared with last year. If international growth gradually recovers this year, it seems likely that both export prices and volumes will rise somewhat. Growth in world trade will probably be appreciably higher than export growth. Many export companies are currently operating with squeezed margins, partly reflecting several years of high wage growth.

This applies in particular to the most labour-intensive manufacturing sectors exposed to international competition, but also to parts of the process industry, such as the ferroalloys industry.

2.2 Domestic demand

Upward revision of growth forecasts for the Norwegian economy

The growth outlook for the Norwegian economy has been revised upwards for the next few years, compared with the projections in the October Inflation Report. This largely reflects a sharp upward revision of projections for petroleum investment. New projections from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate indicate that petroleum investment will rise again following the downward trend that has persisted since the peak year 1998 (see Chart 2.7). The upward revision of investment estimates is due primarily to increased investment in fields on stream and expected earlier development of major gas fields. Investment is now projected to remain unchanged in 2002 and increase by 15%

next year. In the October Inflation Report, we projected a 5% decline in investment both this year and next. The forecast for investment in 2002 and 2003 is now NOK 18bn higher than in our last report.

Increased petroleum investment will contribute to higher output in parts of the shipbuilding, platform and engineering industries. This will in turn push up demand in the rest of the mainland economy. There is some uncertainty, however, about the distribution of demand impulses between the domestic economy and imports. Traditionally, domestic deliveries for investment in fields on stream have been substantial. Aker Stord was recently awarded a contract worth NOK 5bn in connection with the Kristin field

Table 2.2 Key aggreates for Norway 2002-2004.

Percentage change from previous year

2002 2003 2004

Mainland demand 21⁄2 21⁄2 23⁄4 Private consumption 31⁄2 31⁄4 3

Public consumption 2 21⁄4 21⁄4 Fixed investment -1⁄4 11⁄4 13⁄4 Enterprises -3 1 11⁄4 Dwellings 4 31⁄4 23⁄4 General government 43⁄4 0 21⁄4 Petroleum investment 0 15 -5

Traditional exports -1⁄2 2 3

Imports 21⁄4 43⁄4 3

GDP 11⁄4 21⁄2 2

Mainland GDP 13⁄4 21⁄4 2 Employment 1⁄2 1⁄2 1⁄2 LFS unemployment¹⁾ 33⁄4 33⁄4 33⁄4 1)Percentage of labour force

Source: Norges Bank

Metals Mechanical

Source: Statistics Norway Electronic and

optical

Chart 2.6Unfilled orders in the technology industry.

Value indices, 1995=100

50 75 100 125 150

50 75 100 125 150

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 2.7Gross investment in petroleum activities.

In billions of NOK. Constant 1997 prices

30 40 50 60 70 80

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 200430 40 50 60 70 80

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development. Even if Norwegian land-based industry should win the contracts, some of the production will probably be moved abroad. In recent years, a rising cost level in Norway has made it increasingly profitable to use foreign subcontractors and move entire or parts of production to low-cost countries. This trend may continue and intensify. If this happens, an increase in demand will have less impact on mainland Norway than earlier. At the same time, a large share of the increase in petroleum investment projected between this year and next will be linked to plants and installations that will probably have a high import share.

The phasing in of petroleum revenues provides an annual stimulus to the Norwegian economy

The guidelines for fiscal policy imply a use of petroleum revenues equivalent to the expected real return on the Government Petroleum Fund. The new fiscal rule implies that central government budgets will contribute to stimulating activity in the Norwegian economy in the years ahead.

The central government budget for 2002 was approved by the Storting at the end of November. The use of petroleum revenues will be increased by NOK 6bn or 0.6% of mainland GDP from 2001. This is in line with the assumptions in the October Inflation Report. However, the Storting approved more extensive tax cuts than assumed in the last report. Tax cuts equivalent to NOK 12bn at accrued values or about 1%

of mainland GDP were approved for 2002. By comparison, tax cuts in connection with the tax reform in 1992 amounted to about 1⁄2% of mainland GDP. Real underlying central government spending growth from 2001 to 2002 is estimated at 11⁄4%. This is somewhat lower than previously assumed, primarily reflecting lower transfers to the private sector.

Taxes were reduced considerably more than spending. The gap was partly covered by increasing dividends from state- owned enterprises.

For 2003, National Budget estimates and the guidelines for fiscal policy indicate an increase in the use of petroleum revenues of somewhat more than NOK 7bn compared with the previous year. For 2004, the use of petroleum revenues is projected to increase by a further NOK 6bn. Our projections are based on the technical assumption that the change in the budget is equally distributed between public spending and tax cuts for the household and business sectors. We have not made assumptions about specific tax cuts that affect consumer price inflation.

Strong growth in consumption

In 2002, the halving of VAT on food, a reduction in property taxes, an increased threshold for the income surtax and an increase in the standard deduction will make a substantial contribution to real income growth in the household sector.

1)The budget balance is the change on the previous year, expressed as a percentage of trend mainland GDP.

Sources: National Budget and Supplementary Proposition 2002, Ministry of Finance

Chart 2.8Structural non-oil budget balance¹⁾

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

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The reduction in the interest rate in December will also contribute. Combined with continued high wage growth and growth in employment, evidence suggests that household net real disposable income may increase by more than 4%

this year. It is assumed that some of the rise in income will be saved. Even with some increase in saving, growth in private consumption may be considerably higher than in the last two years. Consumption growth is projected at 31⁄2% in 2002, which is an appreciable upward revision from the October Inflation Report. Private consumption is projected to rise by 31⁄4% in 2003 and 3% in 2004.

In recent years, the central government budget surplus has been high due to substantial petroleum revenues. Last year, the surplus was over 17% of GDP. In other countries, such as the US, high public saving has for some time been accompanied by low private saving. In Norway, public saving has been high while the household saving ratio has also been high and rising (see Chart 2.9). In 2001, the household saving ratio was about 71⁄2%. An explanation may be that an increasing portion of the population is reaching an age when saving is high. Therefore, the household sector will save more on average even if the saving behaviour of each age group remains constant.

Household debt is rising sharply. Debt as a share of disposable income has increased over the last two years (see Chart 2.10). On the other hand, as a result of high and rising saving and a substantial rise in house prices over many years, the average wealth position is thus solid. On balance, the financial position of the household sector as a whole is still strong.

Modest growth in mainland corporate investment

The last Inflation Report indicated that the drop in equity prices and uncertainty concerning future developments could affect the investment climate in Norway. Equity prices recovered partially towards the end of last year after falling sharply last autumn. The stock market has been stable in recent months (see Chart 2.11). Uncertainty now appears to have diminished. It appears that growth in demand may be stronger than previously assumed. The key interest rate has been reduced. This should contribute to somewhat stronger growth in mainland investment than assumed in the last Inflation Report. However, relatively slow growth in mainland investment is still projected. During the budget deliberations for 2002, the Storting decided to postpone the elimination of the investment tax until 1 October 2002. It is likely that many investment projects in retail trade and service sectors will be postponed because of this. This may lead to an upswing in investment towards year-end and in 2003.

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 2.10Household loan debt as a percentage of disposable income and household interest expense after tax as a percentage of cash income

Interest burden (right-hand scale)

Loan debt (left-hand scale)

90 110 130 150 170

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 0 3 6 9 12

25 50 75 100 125 150

Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 25 50 75 100 125 150

Source: EcoWin

Financial

IT All-share index

Manufacturing

Chart 2.11Developments in some indices on the Oslo Stock Exchange. Daily figures, 01.01.00- 21.02.02. Indices, 3 January 2000 = 100

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Wealth ratio (right-hand scale) Saving ratio

(left-hand scale)

Chart 2.9Household saving and net financial wealth.

Percentage of disposable income

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

16 17

Manufacturing has been exempted from the investment tax.

Statistics Norway’s investment intentions survey indicates a rise in manufacturing investment this year, due in particular to a pronounced expansion in the aluminium industry. Major projects have been initiated both at Sunndalsøra and in Mosjøen. Therefore, manufacturing investment may increase somewhat this year. Growth in manufacturing investment is expected to be weak in the longer term as a result of falling investment in the metallurgical industry following a peak this year and pressure on earnings in Norwegian manufacturing.

2.3 Employment and production

Higher domestic demand will sustain employment growth

Strong growth in private consumption will fuel demand for labour in consumer-oriented industries, such as retail trade and private services. The demand for labour may rise in parts of the petroleum-related industry as a result of increased petroleum investment. The demand for labour in the public sector may continue to rise, as a result of both a planned increase in the use of petroleum revenues over the government budget and the development of the school and health sectors. Public sector investment in schools and residential construction, through interest-free loans to municipalities and the State Housing Bank’s increased lending limits, will stimulate demand for labour in the construction industry as early as this year. Continued growth in housing investment will have the same effect. These factors combined may lead to persistent capacity problems in the construction sector.

Internationally exposed industries are being scaled back

Several years of high cost inflation and deterioration in competitiveness will lead to a contraction of the internationally exposed sector. Historically, the internationally exposed sector has been scaled back in waves. In the period from 1977 to 1984 and from 1987 to 1992 in particular, manufacturing industry contracted sharply (see Chart 2.12). Both periods were preceded by a considerable deterioration in cost competitiveness in manufacturing.

During the last five years, labour costs in Norway have increased considerably more than among our trading partners (see Chart 2.13). Many companies in the most labour- intensive and least specialised manufacturing sectors have transferred parts of their production to low-cost countries.

This trend will probably continue and intensify the next few years and contribute to reducing manufacturing employment.

In the ferroalloys industry, which is relatively capital- intensive, a number of companies have temporarily shut down production facilities due to poor profitability. Norsk

85 90 95 100 105 110

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 85 90 95 100 105 110

Sources: Statistics Norway, the Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements and Norges Bank

Local currency

Common currency

Chart 2.13Relative labour costs in Norwegian manufacturing compared with trading partners.

Index, 1990=100 Source: Statistics Norway

Chart 2.12Manufacturing employment, 1970-2001.

In 1000s of people employed.

250 300 350 400

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 250 300 350 400

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Hydro has closed its Herøya magnesium plant because of weak competitiveness in relation to new production countries like China. Elkem has recently decided to close down production of ferrochrome at its Mo i Rana plant in the period to summer. On the other hand, the aluminium industry is planning a sharp increase in production capacity over the next three years. Nevertheless, employment in this industry will probably decline due to more capital-intensive activities and new technology.

A small rise in unemployment

Total employment is estimated to grow on average by about 1⁄2% per year the next three years. Following a larger-than- expected rise in unemployment towards the end of 2001, unemployment, based on LFS figures, is projected at 33⁄4%

in 2002. The estimate is 1⁄4 percentage point higher than in the last Inflation Report. The effect of last autumn’s decisions regarding cost and labour cutbacks may be reflected in unemployment figures for some sectors this spring, in particular the airline industry and parts of the media industry, but probably the ICT industry as well. On the other hand, demand growth is projected to pick up.

Moderate growth in mainland GDP

During the last decade, the percentage of the working-age population that was either employed or seeking employment reached a record-high level (see Chart 2.15). The potential for growth in the labour force over and above that implied by demographic factors has therefore declined. Assuming that the share of each age group that exits the labour force due to rehabilitation and early retirement and the share of non-employed remain at current levels, the labour force might grow by 0.3 - 0.4% annually the next few years.

Slow growth in the labour supply implies that the growth potential for the mainland economy is limited in the years ahead (see separate box in Inflation Report 3/2001). In 2002, the effective labour supply measured in person-hours will probably decline due to the introduction of two additional vacation days. Our projections are based on productivity growth in the mainland economy in line with an historical average of around 13⁄4%. Mainland GDP is projected to grow by 13⁄4% in 2002, 21⁄4% in 2003 and 2% in 2004.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Unemployment rate

(left-hand scale)

Employed (right-hand scale)

Chart 2.14Change in number employed from previous year (in thousands) and LFS unemployment rate

-80 -40 0 40 80

0 2 4 6 8

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

64 66 68 70 72 74

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 -80 -40 0 40 80

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Labour force participation (per cent, left-hand scale)

Change in LFS labour force (thousands, right-hand scale)

Chart 2.15 Change in labour force from previous year, and labour force as a percentage of population aged 16-74 (labour force participation rate)

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Norges Bank’s projections for developments in the Norwegian and international economy form an important basis for monetary policy decisions.

Norges Bank places emphasis on the importance of evaluating the forecasts in our Inflation Report and on transparency in our forecasting work.

In this box, we take a closer look at the Bank’s projections for 2000, which were presented in Inflation Report 4/1998 and 4/1999.¹

How accurate were our forecasts?

At the end of 1998, our forecasts were influenced by the Asian crisis in 1997, the crisis in Russia in August 1998 and in Brazil in October/November of the same year. In autumn 1998, the forecasts for global economic developments were relatively pessimistic. That year was also a turbulent one for the Norwegian economy. Oil prices dropped to USD 10 per barrel and the wage settlement resulted in markedly higher wage growth than expected. In conjunction with the unrest in financial markets, this led to a sharp depreciation of the krone exchange rate. Money market rates rose from 3.5% to 8% in 1998. In the December 1998 Inflation Report, Norges Bank projected relatively weak economic growth, a fall in employment and higher unemployment. The downturn would come as a result of deteriorating competitiveness, slower growth in the world economy and a fall in business fixed investment.

World growth was considerably underestimated for both 1999 and 2000. Monetary stimulus in the US and Europe, a rapid recovery in Asia and renewed stability in international financial markets contributed to a much earlier growth rebound than expected. The Norwegian economy also moved on a different path than we had projected (see Chart 1). Economic growth was markedly higher in 2000 than forecast in December 1998.

We underestimated demand growth in both 1999 and 2000. In particular, private consumption was underestimated, but business fixed investment was also significantly higher than projected. House prices exhibited a sharp rise in both 1999 and 2000, while we expected a moderate fall.

Because demand picked up faster than expected, employment and production also showed higher-

Evaluation of Norges Bank’s projections for 2000

than-estimated growth. In addition, mainland GDP was pushed up by unexpectedly high electricity production in 2000. Employment increased and unemployment remained low.

With a tighter labour market than we had assumed, wage growth was higher than projected in 2000.

Consumer price inflation was also higher than estimated. Oil prices moved up from around USD 10 per barrel at the end of 1998 to more than USD 30 in the autumn of 2000. The surge in oil prices spilled over to Norwegian consumer prices via higher petrol prices. At the same time, the tax on electricity was increased. Price inflation adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products was 2.1% in 2000 or approximately as projected in December 1998.

Through 1999, it became clear that the downturn in the Norwegian economy would be nearly as pronounced as we had anticipated at the end of 1998 (see Chart 1). The effects of the Asian crisis proved to be more short-lived than we had feared.

Demand – both private consumption and investment – exhibited a sharper pick-up than expected. Our forecasts for demand and production were revised upwards during 1999. In spite of this, growth in 2000 was significantly underestimated.

While our projections for most real variables were revised upwards through 1999, the projection for annual wage growth was revised downwards. This

1 A more in-depth analysis will be published in Economic Bulletin 1/2002.

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

1)Level

2)Including the costs of additional vacation days Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 1 Projections for some key variables for 2000 published at various times. Annual increase. Per cent

Mainland

demand Unemploy-

ment¹⁾ Wage growth²⁾ Price

inflation Mainland

GDP

Projection for 2000 published in 1998 Projection for 2000 publ. in 1999 Actual figure 2000