THE EXECUTIVE BOARD 3 MAY 2017

(1)

THE EXECUTIVE BOARD

3 MAY 2017

(2)

GDP for trading partners

2

Export-weighted. Quarterly change. Percent. 2010 Q1 – 2017 Q4

¹⁾

1) Projections for 2016 Q1 – 2017 Q4 from MPR1/17.

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

-1 0 1 2

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Trading partners

Advanced economies

Emerging economies

Projections MPR 1/17

(3)

CPI for trading partners

3

Import-weighted. Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2010 – December 2017

¹⁾

1) Annual change 2016 and projections for annual change 2017 from MPR 1/17.

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Trading partners Advanced economies Emerging economies

Annual change 2016 and 2017

(4)

Yields on 10-year government bonds

4

Percent. 1 July 2015 – 1 May 2017

Source: Bloomberg

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17

US Germany

UK France

MPR 1/17

(5)

5

Trading partners. Percent. 2010 Q1 – 2020 Q4

¹⁾

1) Broken lines show forward rates at 10 March 2017 (MPR 1/17) and 28 April 2017.

Actual and forward money market rates

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Expected 28 April 2017

Expected MPR 1/17

(6)

Policy rates and estimated forward rates ¹⁾

6

Percent. January 2012 – December 2020

1) Broken lines show estimated forward rates at 10 March 2017 (MPR 1/17). Solid lines show forward rates at 28 April 2017. Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates.

2) ECB’s deposit rate. Eonia from 2017 Q3.

Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US

Euro area² UK

Sweden

Expected 28 April 2017

Expected 10 March 2017

(7)

Oil price

7

USD per barrel. January 2014 – December 2020

¹⁾

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Futures prices May 2017 Futures prices MPR 1/17

1) Futures prices for May 2017 (broken lines) is the average of future prices for the period 25 April – 1 May 2017.

(8)

Active rigs and oil production ¹⁾ in the US

Week 1 2013 – week 17 2017

8 1) Production in millions of barrels per day.

Source: Thomson Reuters

6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800

Active rigs (left-hand scale)

Production (right-hand scale)

(9)

Krone exchange rate

9

Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44).

¹⁾

1 January 2014 – 28 April 2017

²⁾

1) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate.

2) Projections for 2017 Q2 from MPR 1/17.

Source: Norges Bank

Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17

85 90 95 100 105 110 115 85

90 95 100 105 110 115

Projections for 2017 Q2 from MPR 1/17 Average 2017 Q2

MPR 1/17

(10)

Three-month Nibor spread

10

Percentage points. 1 January 2015 – 28 April 2017

¹⁾

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Projections MPR 1/17

MPR 1/17

1) Projections for 2017 Q1 – 2018 Q2 from MPR 1/17.

Source: Norges Bank

(11)

CPI and CPI-ATE

11

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2012 – June 2017

¹⁾

0 1 2 3 4 5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

CPI CPI-ATE

Projections MPR 1/17

1) Projections for March – June 2017 from MPR 1/17.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(12)

Output growth in regional network

12

Reported and expected growth. February survey. Annualised. Percent

Source: Norges Bank

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

Domestic.

oriented mfg.

Export oriented mfg.

Oil serv.

domest. market

Oil serv. export market

Construction Retail trade Commerc.

services

Househ.

services

Past three months

Next six months

(13)

Unemployment as a share of the labour force

13

NAV

¹⁾

and LFS

²⁾

. Seasonally adjusted. Percent. January 2010 – June 2017

³⁾

1) Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration.

2) Labour Force Survey.

3) LFS projections for January – April 2017 and NAV projections for March – June 2017 from MPR 1/17.

Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

1 2 3 4 5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

NAV LFS

NAV including employment schemes

Projections MPR 1/17

(14)

Employment and labour force in the LFS ¹⁾

14

In thousands. Seasonally adjusted. January 2011 – February 2017

2 500 2 600 2 700 2 800

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Labour force Employment

1) Labour Force Survey.

Source: Statistics Norway

(15)

Employment ¹⁾

15

Seasonally adjusted. Index. 2010 Q1 = 100. 2010 Q1 – 2017 Q1

98 100 102 104 106 108

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Quarterly national accounts LFS

1) LFS (Labour Force Survey) and quarterly national accounts normally show different levels of employment. This is because the LFS only counts permanent residents, while the national accounts also include temporary residents.

(16)

Wage growth and wage norm for manufacturing

16

Percent. 2003 – 2017

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Wage norm for manufacturing workers Wage growth - TBU

Projections MPR 1/17

Sources: Norwegian Technical Calculation Committee for Wage Settlements (TBU) and Norges Bank

(17)

House prices

17

Percent. January 2010 – March 2017

Sources: Real Estate Norway, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi

-5 0 5 10 15

-1 0 1 2 3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Seasonally adjusted monthly change (left-hand scale)

Twelve-month change (right-hand scale)

(18)

Approved housing construction

18

By gross floor area (GFA). In 1000 m

²

. Seasonally adjusted.

January 2012 – March 2017

150 200 250 300 350 400 450

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

GFA approved for construction Trend

(19)

Residential building permits and households

19

Number of building permits and change in number of households.

2005 – 2016

¹⁾

1) Estimated change in number of households in 2016 based on average household size in 2015 and population growth in 2016.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Building permits

Change in number of households

(20)

Credit standards for households ¹⁾ and non- financial enterprises ²⁾

20

Change from previous quarter.

³⁾

2007 Q4 – 2017 Q2

1) Residential mortgages.

2) Total credit to non-financial enterprises.

3) 2/1 Much/somewhat easier to obtain credit, 0 = Approximately unchanged, -1/-2 Somewhat/much tighter credit standards.

Source: Norges Bank

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Households

Non-financial enterprises

Next quarter

(21)

THE EXECUTIVE BOARD 3 MAY 2017