EMEP/MSC-W Note 1/00, July 2000.
"Analysis of UNECE/EMEP Emission Data MSC-W Status Report 2000".
By Vigdis Vestreng and Egil Støren
This report is published in DUO with permission from EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) http://www.emep.int/
and
Norwegian Meteorological Institute http://www.met.no/
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DET NORSKE METEOROLOGISKE INSTITUTT Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Research Note no 37
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ISSN 0332-9879
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This note was prepared to be presented at the twenty fourth session of the Steering Body to EMEP (Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-Range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe). It presents an overview of the UNECE/EMEP emission data held at and managed by the Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-West (MSC- W) of EMEP. The note also includes an analysis of trends and a comparison of reported emissions with the ceilings of the Protocol to the 1979 Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground- level Ozone (The Gothenburg Protocol).
The work of EMEP is carried out in collaboration with a broad network of scientists at
national level that contribute with the systematic collection, analysis and reporting of
emission inventories and measurements from the EMEP monitoring networks. Without them
this report would not have been possible. The scientific and technical teams at MSC-W are
also grateful to Eija Lumme, secretary to the Steering Body of EMEP, for invaluable support
and co-operation during her engagement at UNECE (United Nations Economic Commission
for Europe).
2
3
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FAGIHKJDJMLONBLEPRQ?S.T"UVWLEXYXZLO[5\"X][^]_"`bacdfegdihjdikldim
...………….. 5
2.1 Emission Reporting Progress ………... 5
2.2 Overview ……….. 6
2.3 Quality Assessment ……….. 8
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………... 9
3.1 National and Regional Total Emissions ... 9
3.2 Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Emissions ... 10
3.3 Source Sector Emissions in the EMEP Area ...…19
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...…………21
4.1 Emission Trends in the EMEP Area……….. 21
4.2 Trend analysis of selected data ………. 23
4.2.1 Data selection ……… 24
4.2.2 Sulphur trends ……….. 24
4.2.3 Nitrogen oxides trends ……….. 25
4.2.4 Ammonia trends ……… 25
4.2.5 NMVOC trends ………. 26
4.2.6 Carbon monoxide trends ……… 26
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…… 33
5.1 Detection of National Emission Reductions ………. 33
5.2 Future emissions reductions ………. 35
5.3 Recalculations ………... 36
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………40
4
5
The emission data held at the MSC-W comprise official national emissions (anthropogenic and natural), estimates of land-based emissions over regions within the EMEP modelling area, marine exhaust emissions and biogenic releases over sea and land. Official national emissions reported every year to the UNECE Secretariat by the Parties to the Convention on Long- Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) are stored and managed in a database system developed at MSC-W. A description of the database can be found in EMEP/MSC-W Note 1/98 (Støren, 1998). An updated selection of the EMEP emission data are available on the Internet (EMEP web site: http//www.emep.int).
In the following, a summary of the current state of the EMEP emission database is given, with official data outlined first as received by the middle of June 2000 (Chapter 2), followed by the data used in the model calculations (Chapter 3). The section on official submissions includes heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants. In the section on modelling, discussion concentrates on releases of SO x , NO x , NH 3 , NMVOC and CO affecting acidification, eutrophication, ground based ozone and particles. Emissions data for these pollutants are used in the dispersion modelling which is the responsibility of the MSC-W.
The report also contains an analysis of trends in national total emissions and in sector data submitted to UNECE/CLRTAP (Chapter 4) and a chapter on the progressions made towards implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol (Chapter 5).
To this date the number of Parties to the Convention are 46: 43 European countries, Canada, the United States of America and the European Community. All references to Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Ireland, Latvia, Moldova, Slovakia and Slovenia refer to the respective Republics of those names. United States refer to United States of America, Yugoslavia refers to the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and the FYR Macedonia refers to the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.
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This section is divided into three parts. The first part summarises the progress in reporting over the last three years, the second part gives an overview of all major types of data submitted so far, while the third part summarizes the quality assessment.
The official submitted data can also be found in the UNECE report EB.AIR/GE.1/2000/6.
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41 of 46 Parties to the Convention have submitted emission data this year. All Parties, except one, submitted some of their data in electronic format. The considerable increase in electronic submissions of data is a positive consequence of the distribution of electronic pre-filled emissions tables.
Regarding the timeliness of submissions, 22% of the Parties submitted some data within
deadline, during January this figure increased to 28%, most of the data was received by the
end of February, while the latest reports were submitted in the beginning of May. It seems
6
difficult for many of the Parties to submit their data within the established deadlines. The implication is that late submissions risk exclusion from the work under the Convention for that year.
This year’s reporting included 1998 data, updates for previous years and projections for 2005 and 2010. As figures 2.1-2.3 illustrate, there has been an overall marked progress in the reporting for 1998 compared to that of the years before concerning 1996 and 1997. For the traditional pollutants, national total and sector data for 1998 have been reported by approximately 70% of the Parties. The corresponding figures for HMs and POPs are 64% and 26%. The reporting of POPs clearly needs to be strengthened.
There has been a substantial increase in the number of reported emissions for year 2010, in particular for the pollutants included in the Gothenburg Protocol (about 10 Parties more than last year). One reason for this is that almost all the Parties to the Protocol report the protocol emission ceiling as their 2010 projections. With regard to reported gridded totals, there has been only a minor improvement. 42% of the Parties indicated which estimation methodology they have followed, an increase of 7 Parties relative to last year’s report. Reporting on the methodology followed by the Parties to estimate emissions is an important means for determining the comparability of the reported data, an issue being highly prioritised. An increased reporting of methodology differing from the recommendations from the EMEP/CORINAIR Guidebook is therefore highly appreciated. Many of the Parties have recalculated their emissions of the main components, an overview of which is given in Chapter 5, table 5.2.
The Convention’s current goal is to cover all gaps in the time series of national annual total and sector (SNAP level 1) emissions since 1980 using harmonised emission inventory methodologies as soon as possible, and at the latest during the 2005 inventory. Moreover, EMEP aims at having full sets of gridded data for national total and sector data for every five years starting from 1980 and updates in the years between (EB.AIR/GE.1/1998/3).
To date, not all Parties have reported annual national totals since 1980 or gridded totals every fifth year, however, all Parties, except Malta, have submitted data at least once. The reported national anthropogenic total figures for SO x , NO x , NH 3 , NMVOC, CO, CH 4 , CO 2 , POPs and HMs are listed in Tables 1-9 in Annex I.
An overview of reported national total, sector and gridded data available from the EMEP database for each Party is shown in Annex I, Tables 10-16. Reported national totals, sector data and gridded data stored at MSC-W are outlined with crosses. Present lack of data are marked with bars, except for gridded data, where only last emission year reported are marked.
The first position indicates data for national totals, second position corresponds to sector data
and the third position corresponds to gridded data in the 50x50km 2 EMEP grid. An asterisk
over the gridded data indicates that the reported data has been submitted in the 150x150km 2
grid. The tables show superior data coverage for SO x and NO x (Tables 10 and 11). For NH 3 ,
NMVOC and CO (Tables 12, 13 and 14), the data gaps are still substantial, especially in the
1980s. HMs and POPs (Tables 15 and 16) with base year 1990, are only available for a few
Parties, and it has been almost no reporting of gridded data. Parties are kindly requested to
complete the time series. Furthermore, any revision of estimation methodologies should
involve updating all figures, both national totals and sector data, reported so far accordingly.
7
20 20
16
14 22
26
20
17
29 30 32
28 23
23
18
28 28
23
34 34
29
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
SO2 NOX NH3 NMVOC CO CH4 CO2
N u m b e r o f P a rt ie s
1998 (for 1996) 1999 (for 1997) 2000 (for 1998)
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SO2 NOX NH3 NMVOC CO CH4
N u m b e r fo P a rt ie s
1998 (for 1996) 1999 (for 1997) 2000 (for 1998)
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8
The gridded data also plays an important part in the assessment done within EMEP. As can be seen from the overview tables, quite a few Parties have failed to report gridded data for emissions in 1995 or later years. In these cases older data will be used in the assessments, and the spatial distribution of emissions may not reflect the present situation. This will for instance influence trend analysis that takes the spatial distribution into consideration. Gridded data split into sectors, and information on the height distribution are also important elements in the modelling activities of EMEP, but are only available for very few Parties (not shown in the overview tables). Information on the position and characteristics of LPS is extremely useful in shedding light on issues related to emission patterns, monitoring data and model results.
All the data submitted to UNECE goes through an initial quality assessment at the MSC-W.
This is not to be regarded as a verification process, but the data are checked for internal consistency and efforts are made to compare the reported data under different specifications.
The most common problem found, is that the sum of the sector data does not agree with the national totals reported, but also other inconsistencies have been corrected during the quality control period between deadline for submissions and the onset of the model runs. The normal procedure is that MSC-W correct the identified inconsistencies through direct contact with nominated national experts from the reporting Party. Figure 2.4 gives an overview of the communication between MSC-W and the Parties’ national experts this year.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
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Official submissions pr.2.June 2000 (89%) Submissions including SNAP 1 (70%)
Comments from MSC-W (51%)
Replies received before 2.
June 2000 (81%)
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The figure shows that there is indeed a need for an initial quality check of emission data
submitted by the Parties before loading them into the database. More than 50% of the Parties
received comments from MSC-W. The response of national experts to the MSC-W inquiries
for inconsistency are noteworthy. 81% of all inquiries made by MSC-W during spring 2000
received an answer before 2. June 2000. It is most satisfactory to appreciate the quick and
positive response from the national experts.
9
There have been major changes this year in emission inventories used for modelling at MSC-W. These are:
(a) Inclusion of the 1990 emissions from International Ship traffic from Lloyd’s Register of Shipping for the Mediterranean and the Black Seas
(b) Inclusion of official emission data reported by Turkey for the first time
(c) Inclusion of several large updates reported by the countries (see Chapter 5, Table 5.2).
Emission data for modelling are based on official submissions to the Convention. However, since these do not fully cover the EMEP modelling domain for all years of interest (1980- 1998, 2005, 2010), data gaps are filled in with estimates from available documented sources, or are derived in collaboration with experts from the MSC-W and CCC (Chemical Co- ordinating Centre) of EMEP. A brief description of the total, sector and gridded data used for modelling is given below.
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Annual totals for missing years are based on linear interpolation of the most recent official values. In the case of projections, those of 1990 replace missing values, since this year constitutes the basis for estimation of national projection figures.
The national totals for SO 2 , NO x , NH 3 , NMVOC and CO used in this year’s calculations (1985-1998) are those received at the MSC-W by mid-May 2000 and are displayed in Tables 3.1-3.5. Data for 1980, 2005 and 2010 are also given. Official values are highlighted. Data drawn from other sources or interpolated are displayed with no background. Updates from last year’s reporting are printed in bold. All national figures refer to anthropogenic emissions only. Volcanic sulphur emissions reported by Italy are listed separately.
Tables displaying data for modelling purposes exclude emissions from Canada, United States, the European Community, Liechtenstein and Monaco, as they are not used in the model calculations. On the contrary, emissions from Albania and Kazakhstan (non-Parties to the Convention), along with several Asiatic and North African regions, are included in these tables as they are confined to the EMEP modelling domain.
The split of the German emissions into Germany former East and Germany former West is performed by MSC-W. Because of lack of gridded data for Germany, the split factor used is based on the 1992 emissions for East and West Germany reported officially from Germany in 1995. The German source distribution clearly needs to be updated. The Russian Federation emissions reported are divided into the four parts: Kola/Karelia, St. Petersburg/Novgorod- Pskov, Kaliningrad and Rest of the Russian Federation. The split factors used for the Russian Federation are based on the latest gridded data received.
In the absence of any official figures, the emission estimates used are those suggested by
IIASA (Amann et al., 1997) for SO 2 (Albania), NO x (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina), and
NH 3 (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, The FYR of Macedonia, Yugoslavia). Moreover,
emission figures for NH 3 reported by Belarus, Estonia, and Ukraine did not include
agriculture, and have therefore also been replaced by IIASA estimates (219, 29, and 729 kilo
tonnes respectively).
10
For a few countries official emission estimates for NMVOC and CO are missing for all years and are not available in other databases (e.g. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, the FYR of Macedonia, Yugoslavia). In these cases it is assumed that NMVOC emissions are equal to those of NO x , and CO emissions are equal to 3.5 times the NO x emissions. This crude assumption is in line with the respective ratios for other countries for which NO x , NMVOC and CO data are available. The extension of the EMEP grid to the East has led to inclusion of additional areas in the modelling domain. These are the whole of Azerbaijan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, and parts of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Iraq, Jordan and several regions of North Africa. For SO 2 and NO x emission totals for these areas are derived from the 1985 GEIA (Global Emission Inventory Activity) emission inventories (Benkovitz et al., 1996). For NH 3
totals are drawn from the 1990 global emission inventories developed at the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), the Netherlands. NMVOC and CO emissions for these regions have been deduced from those of NO x using the assumptions described above. Gridded SO 2 and NO x data for Turkey, several Asiatic Areas and North Africa are drawn from the 1985 GEIA inventories, while in the case of NH 3 the comprehensive RIVM global inventory (Bouwman et al, 1997) is used for all these regions and Cyprus.
Total releases of SO 2 , NO x , NMVOC and CO from ship traffic in the Atlantic Ocean, the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea and the Mediterranean are used as estimated by Lloyd’s Register of Shipping. These emissions refer to 1990 and are disaggregated at 50 km x 50 km spatial distribution.
With regard to natural emissions, major contributions are volcanic releases of SO 2 reported by Italy for the period 1980-1997, and estimates of gridded biogenic emissions of sulphur (DMS) over the sea estimated by Tarrasón et al. (1995). These are listed separately in tables 3.1-3.5.
Reported natural emissions other than volcanic sulphur are not included in these tables.
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The temporal variation of emissions has been provided to MSC-W by the GENEMIS project (Generation of European Emission Data for Episodes) and concerns 1990 daily national estimates for SO x , NO x , NMVOC and CO. These data refer to both national emission totals and source sectors at SNAP level 1.
The spatial distribution of emissions used in model calculations for 1998 is shown in Figures 3. 1-3.5. For each Party the latest reported emission distribution is used. The gridded data are then scaled according to the most recent totals reported. The colour maps shown for SO 2 , NO 2 , NH 3 , NMVOC and CO (figure 3.1-3.5) are in 50km resolution. Grid elements appearing in groups of nine indicate that the 50km x 50km distribution was not available for the corresponding country and that the 150x150 km grid has been used instead. The actual emission figures comprising the basis for the maps can be downloaded from the EMEP web site: http://www.emep.int.
In the absence of officially submitted spatial distribution of emissions, information is drawn
either from the CORINAIR 1985 or 1990 inventory or from relevant national statistics and
available data on the distribution of sources. These data are based on national administrative
units and have been converted to the 50km x 50 km grid for the EMEP modelling activities.
11
The preliminary CORINAIR 1990 data received this year include a larger area than the
CORINAIR 1990 data available in 1998. Since many of the Parties have failed to report
gridded data, the preliminary CORINAIR 1990 data has been extensively used in the
modelling. The CORINAIR 1985 data also contains information on source and height
distribution, and are for example used in combination with the preliminary CORINAIR 1990
data for Denmark and Germany for all components.
12
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(1) The part inside the EMEP domain of calculation. "Other Asiatic areas" refers to Azerbaijan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and parts of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Iraq and Jordan. (2) Gothenburg protocol (G.p) emission ceiling. (3) Split estimated by MSC-W. See text. (4) Projection figure for whole Germany. G.p. figure 550 Kt also reported. (5) Sum of sector data. (6) Natural emissions reported by Italy.
Officially submitted data are printed inside grey-shaded boxes. Updates from last year’s report from MSC-W are printed in bold. Countries in white
boxes have not provided any data to ECE; data are drawn from open sources.
13
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(1) The part inside the EMEP domain of calculation. "Other Asiatic areas" refers to Azerbaijan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and parts of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Iraq and Jordan. (2) Gothenburg protocol (G.p) emission ceiling. (3) Split estimated by MSC-W. See text. (4) Projection figure for whole Germany. G. p. figure 1081 Kt also reported. (5) Sum of sector data.
Officially submitted data are printed inside grey-shaded boxes. Updates from last year’s report from MSC-W are printed in bold. Countries in white
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14
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(1) The part inside the EMEP domain of calculation. "Other Asiatic areas" refers to Azerbaijan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and parts of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Iraq and Jordan. (2) Armenia has reported more figures, but they did not include emissions from agriculture. Emissions reported from Belarus were from stationary sources only. Emissions reported from Estonia and Ukraine was calculated from industry only. (3) Gothenburg protocol (G.p) emission ceiling. (4) Split estimated by MSC-W. See text. (5) Projection figure for whole Germany.
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15
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(1) The part inside the EMEP domain of calculation. "Other Asiatic areas" refers to Azerbaijan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and parts of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Iraq and Jordan. (2) Gothenburg protocol (G.p) emission ceiling. (3) Figures without all sectors included. (4) Split estimated by MSC-W. See text. (5) Projection figure for whole Germany. G.p. figure 995 Kt also reported for 2010. (6) Sum of gridded data. (7) Sum of sector data.
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16
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(1) The part inside the EMEP domain of calculation. "Other Asiatic areas" refers to Azerbaijan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and parts of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Iraq and Jordan. (2) Split estimated by MSC-W. See text. (3) Projection figure for whole Germany. (4) Sum of sector data.
Officially submitted data are printed inside grey-shaded boxes. Updates from last year’s report from MSC-W are printed in bold. Countries in white
boxes have not provided any data to ECE; data are drawn from open sources.
17
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18
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The gridded sector data prepared at the MSC-W for modelling for 1998 are based on the latest official sector submissions. In the absence of official data, information is either drawn from available documented sources or a standard sector split is assumed derived from averaging sector data reported by all Parties. For the total EMEP area, 1998 emission totals split into eleven source sectors for SO 2 , NO x , NH 3 , NMVOC and CO are displayed in figure 3.6.
It should be noted here that a difficulty in the preparation of emission inventories concerns the
determination of marine exhaust emissions. In principle, national shipping and other marine sources such as
coastal traffic and off-shore installations should be included in national totals and in particular reported
under sector 8 (other mobile sources and machinery). Unfortunately, disaggregation of national emissions at
SNAP level 1 does not enable specification of the exact type of sub-sources included. Therefore, as it is not
clear whether Parties do report their marine emissions under sector 8, the use of Lloyd’s estimates (based on
both national and international shipping) may often result in double counting of emissions from domestic
coastal shipping.
20
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Provided that data gaps are filled in, it is possible to calculate the development of emissions over the EMEP area since 1980. Figures 4.1-4.5 illustrate such emission trends for SO 2 , NO x , NH 3 , NMVOC and CO, respectively. The figures are based on the data displayed in tables 3.1-3.5, where all national figures refer to anthropogenic emissions only. It should be noted that these totals are crude, as emissions over several regions are only first estimates.
Moreover, new emission methodologies adopted by the Parties are rarely applied to all preceding years, resulting in temporal inconsistencies.
European sulphur dioxide emissions (Figure 4.1) experience a clear downward trend. The total emission reduction of SO x between 1980 and 1998 is 56%. The trend in the emission of NO x (Figure 4.2) is characterised by relatively high releases in the late 1980s and an easing- off in the 1990s. The 15% reduction in 1998 compared to the 1980 level reaches 21% when 1990 (base year of the Gothenburg Protocol) is used as a reference instead. European emissions of ammonia (Figure 4.3) appear to have dropped by approximately 14% between 1990 and 1998. The almost constant emission trend before 1990 is primarily a result of assumptions made to fill in the large amount of missing data for most countries. In the NMVOC emissions (Figure 4.4) there is a downward trend in the 1990s, leading to an average emission reduction of 26% between 1998 compared to 1990 (base year of the Gothenburg Protocol). In the case of CO (Figure 4.5), a reduction of 29% between 1990 and 1998 is detected.
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Efforts have been made to look at trends in the emission data reported to CLRTAP. In particular the trends in the sector data have been highlighted. Table 4.1 shows the CORINAIR/UNECE source category split of emissions, and all further references to different sectors/source categories are related to this split.
The sector distribution of emissions of SO x , NO x , NH 3 , NMVOC and CO for all the Parties to the Convention does not vary much over the years. The years 1980, 1985, 1990 and 1998 have been studied, and the split between the sectors is approximately as shown in Section 3.3, figure 3. 6.
In the following, all the emission reduction percentages quoted are calculated the following way: 100* (E year1 – E year2 )/ E year1 (1)
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