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A comparison of biological trends from four marine ecosystems:

synchronies, differences, and commonalities

Jason S. Link, William Stockhausen, Georg Skaret, William Overholtz, Bernard A. Megrey, Harald

Gjoesaeter, Sarah Gaichas, Are Dommasnes, Jannike Falk-Petersen, Kerim Aydin, Joseph Kane, Franz

Mueter, Kevin Friedland and Jon Hare

(2)

Objectives

• MENU project

• Compare 4 Northern Hemisphere Marine Ecosystems

– Environment – Biota

– Fisheries

• Elucidate pan-basin synchronies and differences

• Particular emphasis on climate change

relationships

(3)

Methods

• Time series from various fishery

independent and dependent surveys

• Normalized to mean

• Presented as anomalies to facilitate cross- system comparisons

• Bartlett’s correction for auto-correlation

• Cross-correlations among ecosystems

(4)

Eastern Bering Sea

(EBS)

Gulf of

Alaska (GOA)

Gulf of Maine / Georges Bank (GOM/GB)

(BNS) Alaska

Russia

Canada

USA

Greenland

GB

Norwegian Sea

Barents Sea

GOM

4 Major Ecosystems

Norway

(5)

0 250,000 500,000 750,000 1,000,000 1,250,000 1,500,000

EBS GOA GOM GB NOR BAR

Ar ea (km 2 )

35 45 55 65 75 85

EBS GOA GOM GB NOR BAR

Latitude (degrees N)

(6)

Fisheries

0 2 4

EBS GOA GB GOM Nor/Bar

Ecosystem F ish e ry R e m o val s ( t km -2 yr -1 )

Phytoplankton

0 10 20 30 40

EBS GOA GB GOM Nor/Bar

Ecosystem

B io m ass ( t km -2 )

(7)

For further details on systemic metrics, see Gaichas et al.

0 50 100 150

EBS GOA GB GOM Nor/Bar

Ecosystem B io m as s ( t k m -2 )

Total Zooplankton Biomass

Total Benthos Biomass

Total Fish Biomass

(8)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0

2 4 0 2 4 2 4 0 2 4

Barents 1 Barents 2 Barents 3

C h lo ro p h y ll a , m g m -3

Month

Norwegian Sea Gulf of Maine Bering Sea Gulf of Alaska

For further details on lower TL and climate, see Drinkwater et al., Mueter et al.

(9)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0

1000 2000 0 1000 2000 0 1000 2000 0 1000 2000

Barents 1 Barents 2 Barents 3

P ri m a ry pr od uc ti v it y , m g m -2 da y -1

Month

Norwegian Sea Gulf of Maine Bering Sea Gulf of Alaska

For further details on lower TL and climate, see Drinkwater et al., Mueter et al.

(10)

For further details on lower TL, see Mueter et al.

Zooplankton Index

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1

19 77 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05

N o rm a li z ed B io m as s A n o m al ies

GB GOM BAR

-0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 -0.15

-0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10

0.15 ZOOPLANKTON

GOM/GB

-0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 -0.5

0.0 0.5

ZOOPLANKTON GOM/BAR

-0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 -0.5

0.0 0.5

ZOOPLANKTON

GB/BAR

(11)

For further details on lower TL, see Mueter et al.

Shrimp Biomass

-1 0 1 2 3

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

N o rm al iz ed B io m ass A n o m al ies

GOA EBS GOM NOR/BAR

-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

2.5 SHRIMP

GOA/EBS

-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

0.6 SHRIMP

GOA/GOM

-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

0.8 SHRIMP

GOA/NOR+BAR

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 -0.6

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

0.6 SHRIMP

EBS/GOM

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 -0.4

-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

0.8 SHRIMP

EBS/NOR+BAR

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 -0.4

-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

0.8 SHRIMP

GOM/NOR+BAR

(12)

Krill Biomass

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

197 7 197 9 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 200 1 200 3

N o rm al iz ed B io m as s A n o m al ies

GB GOM NOR/BAR

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

KRILL GOM/GB

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

KRILL GOM/NOR+BAR

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 -0.4

-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

KRILL GB/NOR+BAR

For further details on lower TL, see Mueter et al.

(13)

For further details on fish related to climate, see Mueter et al.

Total Fish Biomass

-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

N o rm a li z e d B io m a ss A n o m al ie s

GOA EBS GOM/GB NOR/BAR

-0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.2

-0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3

0.4 TOT BM

GOA/EBS

-0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.2

0.0 0.2

0.4 TOT BM

GOA/GOM+GB

-0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.5

0.0 0.5

TOT BM GOA/NOR+BAR

-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

-0.2 0.0 0.2

0.4 TOT BM

EBS/GOM+GB

-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

-0.5 0.0 0.5

TOT BM EBS/NOR+BAR

-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 -0.5

0.0 0.5

TOT BM

GOM+GB/NOR+BAR

(14)

Cod Biomass

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

N o rma liz e d B io ma s s A n o ma lie s

GOA EBS GB GOM NOR/BAR

Medium Gadid Biomass

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

N o rm al iz ed B io m as s A n o m al ies

GOA EBS GOM/GB NOR/BAR

For further details on fish recruitment, see Megrey et al.

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

0.6 MEDIUM GADIDS

GOA/EBS

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

MEDIUM GADIDS GOA/GOM+GB

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

MEDIUM GADIDS GOA/NOR+BAR

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 -0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

MEDIUM GADIDS EBS/GOM+GB

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 -0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0

MEDIUM GADIDS EBS/NOR+BAR

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

MEDIUM GADIDS GOM+GB/NOR+BAR

-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

0.6 COD

GOA/EBS

-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

-0.5 0.0 0.5

COD GOA/GB

-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

COD GOA/GOM

-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

COD GOA/NOR+BAR

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

-0.5 0.0 0.5

COD EBS/GB

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

COD EBS/GOM

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

COD EBS/NOR+BAR

-0.5 0.0 0.5

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

COD GB/GOM

-0.5 0.0 0.5

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

COD GB/NOR+BAR

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

COD GOM/NOR+BAR

(15)

Herring Biomass

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

No rm a li z e d Bi o m a s s An o m a li e s

GOA EBS GOM/GB NOR/BAR

Mackerel Biomass

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

N o rma liz e d B io ma s s A n o ma lie s

GOM/GB NOR/BAR

-1 0 1 2 3

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

2.5 HERRING

GOA/EBS

-1 0 1 2 3

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

HERRING GOA/GOM+GB

-1 0 1 2 3

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

2.0 HERRING

GOA/NOR+BAR

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 -0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

HERRING EBS/GOM+GB

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 -1.0

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

2.0 HERRING

EBS/NOR+BAR

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

2.0 HERRING

GOM+GB/NOR+BAR

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

0.0 0.5

MACKEREL

GOM/NOR+BAR

(16)

Sebastes spp. Biomass

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

N o rm al iz ed B io m as s A n o m al ies

GOA EBS GOM/GB NOR/BAR

Pleuronectid Biomass

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

N o rm a li z ed B io m ass A n o m a li e s

GOA EBS GOM/GB NOR/BAR

-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0

PLEURONECTIDS GOA/EBS

-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0

1.5 PLEURONECTIDS

GOA/GOM+GB

-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

PLEURONECTIDS GOA/NOR+BAR

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

1.5 PLEURONECTIDS

EBS/GOM+GB

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

PLEURONECTIDS EBS/NOR+BAR

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

PLEURONECTIDS GOM+GB/NOR+BAR -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

SEBASTES GOA/EBS

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 -0.5

0.0 0.5

SEBASTES GOA/GOM+GB

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 -0.4

-0.2 0.0 0.2

0.4 SEBASTES

GOA/NOR+BAR

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

-0.5 0.0 0.5

SEBASTES EBS/GOM+GB

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2

0.4 SEBASTES

EBS/NOR+BAR

-0.5 0.0 0.5

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2

0.4 SEBASTES

GOM+GB/NOR+BAR

(17)

Haddock Biomass

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

N o rm a li z ed B io m ass A n o m a li e s

GB NOR/BAR

Saithe/Pollock Biomass

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

N o rma liz e d B io ma s s A n o ma lie s

GOM/GB NOR/BAR

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 -0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0

SAITHE GOM/NOR+BAR

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

HADDOCK

GOM/NOR+BAR

(18)

Capelin Biomass

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

No rm a li z e d Bi o m a s s An o m a li e s

GOA EBS

NOR/BAR -1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

6 CAPELIN

GOA/EBS

-1 0 1 2 3

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

1.5 CAPELIN

GOA/BAR

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

1.5 CAPELIN

EBS/BAR

(19)

Significant Correlations

- +

Shrimp - GOM:NOR/BAR,

- GOA:GOM

Krill ++ GB/NOR

Zooplankton ++ GB:GOM, + GB:BAR

Total Fish Biomass ++GOA:EBS,

++GOA:GOM Cod - GOA:GOM,

--GB:NOR/BAR

++ GOA:EBS, +GB:GOM Medium Gadids -- GOA:NOR/BAR

Herring --GOA:GOM/GB,

--GOA:NOR/BAR

++ GOM/GB:NOR/BAR

Mackerel N/A N/A

Haddock N/A N/A

Saithe/Pollock N/A N/A

Sebastes spp. -GOA:NOR/BAR, --EBS:NOR/BAR, -- GOM/GB:NOR/BAR

Pleuronectids - EBS:NOR/BAR ++ GOA:EBS,

++GOM/GB:NOR/BAR

Capelin - GOA:NOR/BAR

++ or -- 0.05 + or - 0.05 < 0.10

N/A

(20)

Summary- Commonalities

• Importance of Calanus spp., small pelagics, and gadids in each ecosystem

• GOA & GOM/GB total fish and Sebastes spp.

biomass synchronous

• GOA & EBS total fish, cod, and pleuronectid biomass synchronous

• GOM/GB & NOR/BAR herring and pleuronectid biomass synchronous

• Total fish biomass relatively stable in all systems

(21)

Summary- Differences

• Magnitude of total fish biomass, fisheries, and lower TLs distinct across all ecosystems

• GOM/GB & NOR/BAR cod and Sebastes spp.

biomass asynchronous

• GOA & GOM/GB herring biomass asynchronous

• GOA & NOR/BAR herring biomass asynchronous

• EBS & NOR/BAR Sebastes spp. Biomass asynchronous

• Differences in timing of primary production

(22)

Conclusions

• Strongest synchronies: among two Atlantic systems and among two Pacific systems

• Strongest asynchronies: between Atlantic and Pacific systems

• Pacific and Atlantic distinctions indicative of Global oceanic processes

• Differences within Atlantic or Pacific

systems indicative of basic scale processes

(23)

+/- Signal Indicates Ecosystem Responses to

Global Processes in the Ocean

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