EXECUTIVE BOARD 4 NOVEMBER 2015

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EXECUTIVE BOARD

4 NOVEMBER 2015

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International economy: GDP for trading partners

2

Volume. Export weights. Four-quarter change. Percent. 2000 Q1 – 2015 Q2

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Emerging economies Advanced economies

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

(3)

International economy: GDP

3

Seasonally adjusted. Volume index. 2008 Q1=100. 2008 Q1 – 2015 Q3

90 95 100 105 110 115

2008 2010 2012 2014

US Sweden Euro area UK

(4)

International economy: Inflation

0 2 4

2010 2012 2014

US

Euro area UK

Sweden

-2 0 2 4 6 8

2010 2012 2014

US

Euro area UK

Sweden

4

Consumer prices. Twelve-month change. January 2010 – October 2015

Consumer prices excluding food and energy Consumer prices

Source: Thomson Reuters

(5)

Policy rates for trading partners

5

Actual and estimated forward rates. Percent. 1 January 2010 – 1 October 2018

-1 0 1 2 3

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

US

Euro area Sweden MPR 3/15

2 November 2015

Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

(6)

Money market rates for trading partners

6

Percent. 2016 Q1 – 2018 Q4

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

2016 2017 2018

MPR 3/15

2 November 2015

(7)

Yields on ten-year government bonds

7

Percent. 1 January 2014 – 2 November 2015

0 1 2 3 4

Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15

US UK Sweden Germany Norway

Source: Bloomberg

(8)

Oil price

8

USD per barrel. Brent Blend. January 2011 – December 2018

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

2011 2013 2015 2017

Oil futures prices MPR 2/15 Oil futures prices MPR 3/15

Oil futures prices 2 November 2015 Spot

Source: Thomson Reuters

(9)

Exchange rate (I-44) and oil prices

9

1 January 2014 – 2 November 2015. Projections for 2015 Q4 from MPR 3/15

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 88

93

98

103

108

I-44¹ (l.h.s.)

Projection I-44, MPR 3/15 (l.h.s.) Oil price - USD per barrel (r.h.s.)

1) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Sources: Norges Bank and Thomson Reuters

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Money market premiums

10

Three-month Nibor premiums. Percentage points. 1 January 2014 – 2 November 2015. Projections for 2015 Q4 from MPR 3/15

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Nibor premiums

Projections MPR 3/15

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Risk premiums on bank bonds and covered bonds

11

Difference against German government bond yields. Basis points.

January 2014 – October 2015

Sources: Reuters and DNB Markets

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Norwegian covered bonds Norwegian senior bank bonds European senior bank bonds European covered bonds

(12)

Petroleum investment

12

Share of GDP mainland Norway. Percent. Projections for 2015 – 2018 from MPR 3/15

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Average 2000-2014

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GDP for mainland Norway

13

Four-quarter change. Percent. 2013 Q1 – 2015 Q4

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

2013 2014 2015

SAM in MPR 3/15 SAM 28 October MPR 3/15

30%

50%

70%

90%

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Regional network

14

Expected output growth next six months. Annualised. Percent

Source: Norges Bank

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Domestically oriented manufacturing

Export industry Oil services domestic market

Oil services export market

Construction Retail trade Commercial services

Household services

January 2015 May 2015 August 2015

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Unemployment rate. LFS and NAV

15

Percent. Seasonally adjusted. January 2006 – October 2015

0 1 2 3 4 5

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

LFS NAV

Average LFS since 2000 Average NAV since 2000

Sources: Statistics Norway, NAV (Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration) and Norges Bank

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Unemployment by county

16

Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted.

January 2001 – October 2015

Sources: NAV and Norges Bank

0 1 2 3 4 5

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Hordaland, Møre og Romsdal, Rogaland and Vest-Agder Rest of the country

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Immigration

17

Net migration by country of origin and asylum-seekers. In thousands of persons.

2003 – 2018 Population aged 20 – 66. Annual

change. Percent. 2003 – 2018

Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Directorate of Immigration, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Excluding immigration Total

0 10 20 30 40 50

2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Immigration from EU

Immigration from other countries Projections MPR 2/15

Asylum seekers

Projections in the amendment to the National Budget Projections in the National Budget

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Structural non-oil deficit and expected real return on the GPFG

18

Constant 2016 prices. In billions of NOK. 2001 – 2016

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Structural non-oil deficit

4 percent real return Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG)

Source: Ministry of Finance

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Index of household consumption of goods

19

Seasonally adjusted volume index. January 2012 – September 2015

Source: Statistics Norway

115 120 125 130 135

2012 2013 2014 2015

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House prices

20

Percent. January 2011 – September 2015

Sources: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi

-5 0 5 10 15

-1 0 1 2 3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Seasonally adjusted monthly change (l.h.s.) Twelve-month change (r.h.s.)

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Norges Bank’s survey of bank lending

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4

Credit standards

21

Credit demand and change in credit standards.

¹⁾

Net percentage balances

²⁾

Non-financial enterprises Households

1) Negative net percentage balances denote tighter credit standards.

2) Net percentage balances are calculated by weighting together the responses in the survey. The blue bars show reported developments for the relevant quarter. The red diamonds show expected

developments for that quarter.

Source: Norges Bank Total demand

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4

Credit standards Total demand

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CPI-ATE. Total and by supplier sector

22

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2012 – December 2015

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

2012 2013 2014 2015

Imported consumer goods

Domestically produced goods and services CPI-ATE

(23)

Projections for the key policy rate in MPR 3/15

23

Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2018 Q4

Source: Norges Bank

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

30%

50%

70%

90%

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EXECUTIVE BOARD

4 NOVEMBER 2015