Working Paper

A simple un-weighted average of the estimates ob- tained from the different models included in the suite tracks well the official Norges Bank’s output gap series, which is a

The frequency distribution of the estimated actual change in average cost is shown in Table 4.1, along with the frequency distributions of the predicted changes from the

We distinguish between data incompleteness (ragged edge problem) and model set incompleteness (the true model is not a part of the forecasters’ model space) and compare point

Since the execution of a generic carry trade strategy requires trades in both bond and forex markets, our estimates of the carry component in forex order flow should be correlated

We interpret the interaction effect as confirmation that by focusing on the turnout difference, we estimate a lower bound for how hydropower income affects the incentive to vote

We generate artificial datasets for inflation, the output gap and the nominal interest rate from the theory model, estimate a VAR on the artificial data and compute the

In this note, we compare the performance of likelihood ratio cointegration tests with asymp- totical and bootstrap critical values in terms of their size and power in the case in

(2008) use the DSGE-VAR framework to compare the in-sample …t of a closed economy DSGE model for the US economy when monetary policy is conducted optimally under commitment and when