A changing global economy
Governor Øystein Olsen
Norwegian School of Economics and Business
Administration (NHH) annual Spring Conference,
31 May 2011
GDP
Index, 2000 = 100
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Euro area US Brazil India China
2010 2000
Sources: IMF and Norges Bank
Growth in 2009
10% or more 6% - 10%
3% - 6%
Annual, percentage change
0% - 3%
Less than 0%
No data
Source: IMF
Current account
Share of world GDP. Per cent.
1)2000 – 2011
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
-2 -1 0 1 2 3
-2 -1 0 1 2 3
China
Rest of Asia
Fuel exporting countries US
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2011 and Norges Bank
1) IMF projections for 2011
Exports from emerging economies in Asia
Share of world exports. Per cent
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
2000 2009
Sources: UN Comtrade and Norges Bank
Saving and investment as a share of GDP 1)
Emerging economies and developing countries
Advanced economies
15 20 25 30 35
15 20 25 30 35
1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010
Saving Investment
15 20 25 30 35
1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 15 20 25 30 35
Saving Investment
Sources: IMF and Norges Bank
1) 1980 – 2010
US – long-term interest rates
Per cent. March 1954 – April 2011
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008
5-year nominal interest rate 5-year real interest rate
Sources: Thomson Reuters, Federal Reserve Board and Norges Bank
0 25 50 75 100 125 150
0 25 50 75 100 125 150
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
US UK Greece Euro area
Euro area threshold
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2011
Public debt
As a share of GDP. Per cent.
1)1) IMF projections for 2011. Broken lines
Real prices for metals, food and oil
In USD. US figures deflated by the CPI. Index. 1960 = 100.
1960 – 2011.¹ ⁾ Logarithmic scale
25 50 100 200 400 800
25 50 100 200 400 800
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Metals Food Oil
1) Figures for 2011 show the average so far in 2011 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Norway’s terms of trade
Index. 2003 Q1 = 100. 2003 Q1 – 2011 Q1
90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total
Mainland Norway
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Market value of the Fund
In billions of kroner. 1998 Q1 – 2011 Q1
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Source: Norges Bank
Quarterly return and accumulated return on the Fund
Per cent. 1998 Q1 – 2011 Q1
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Quarterly return
Accumulated annualised return since 1998
Source: Norges Bank
Quarterly excess return and accumulated annualised excess return on the Fund
Per cent. 1998 Q1 – 2011 Q1
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Quarterly excess return
Accumulated annualised excess return
Source: Norges Bank
GDP and regional allocation of equities in the Fund
In billions of USD
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
US EU China
GDP (left-hand scale) Equities (right-hand scale)
Sources: Norges Bank and IMF
