Decision-making and scalar biases in solar photovoltaics roll-out
Siddharth Sareen
1and Ha˚vard Haarstad
2Rapidroll-outofsolarphotovoltaic(PV)energyisakey componentofdecarbonisingenergysystems.Yetclearrisks areinvolved,includingfootprintsfromlanduseand
infrastructureaswellassocio-economicinequalities.Where arethecriticaldecisionsaboutsolarroll-outmade,bywhom, andtowhateffectforjustice?Thepaperreviewsand synthesisesemergingscholarshiponsolarPVroll-out,cross- sectoralaspectsofthismulti-scalarenergytransition,and energyjustice.Weidentifyatrendofdiversescalarbiases,and highlightconsiderableemergingresearchonrisksofscalar injusticeandthepolicyadjustmentsrequiredtoavoidthem duringrapidsolarroll-out.
Addresses
1DepartmentofMediaandSocialSciences,UniversityofStavanger, Stavanger,Norway
2DepartmentofGeography&CentreforClimateandEnergy Transformation,UniversityofBergen,Bergen,Norway
Correspondingauthor:Sareen,Siddharth([email protected])
CurrentOpinioninEnvironmentalSustainability2021,51/52:xx–yy ThisreviewcomesfromathemedissueonClimatedecision-making EditedbyDianaReckien,CathyVaughanandRachaelShwom
Received:18September2020;Accepted:27January2021
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2021.01.008
1877-3435/ã2021TheAuthor(s).PublishedbyElsevierB.V.Thisisan openaccessarticleundertheCCBYlicense(http://creativecommons.
org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Introduction
Rapidroll-outofsolarphotovoltaic(PV)energyisakey componentofdecarbonisingenergysystemsforclimate change mitigation. Because of the experience curve, technologicalinnovation andeconomies ofscale,costs fell dramatically during the 2010s [1]. In 2020, PV plantsarecost-competitive inlargepartsoftheworld, andconstitute asubstantial, increasing shareof annu- ally installed global energy sources. This shift is reflected in academic literature on diffusion of this technology: the primary focus is no longer economic feasibility,itis‘economic,politicalandsocialconcerns includingjobtransitions,strandedeconomicassetsand geopolitical shifts driven by energy and related dis- ruptions’[2].
Decisions concerning socio-cultural and political eco- nomicaspectsofsolarPVroll-outarethusof increasing importance for climate change mitigation. Indeed, [3]
argues that ‘understanding and adapting technologies anddecision-makingprocessesto aparticularplace and people will become increasingly important for thesuc- cessfuldeploymentof newenergytechnologies’.Corre- spondingly,ourreviewasks:Wherearethecriticaldeci- sionsaboutsolarroll-outgovernancemade,bywhom,and towhateffectforjustice?Bydecision-making,wereferto the active use of judgement and/or authority in open- endedsituations(cf.[4]),specifictothesolarPVroll-out domainacrossscalesof deployment.
First,wereview and drawlessonsfrom thisscholarship (Section2:Scopingreview),identifyingavarietyofscalar biasesanddriversbasedonrichlycontextualisedstudies of decision-making in solar PV roll-out governance.
Thereafter (Section 3: Theoretical review), we probe howcurrentconfigurationsandpoliticaleconomictrends indecision-makingimpactscalaraspectsofsolarroll-out anditsenergyjusticeoutcomes.Hereweanalysestate-of- the-art scholarship for insights on energy justice, scale, andtheneedtobalancespeedandsocialinclusion.The decision-making drivers unearthed in research should guide future solar PV roll-out by informing timely multi-level energy policy adjustments that pre-empt or address identified risks of scalar injustice. In closing (Section4:Conclusion),wearguethatadequateconsid- eration of scale and justice effects is vital in order to ensure that governance decisions to implement energy transitionstrategiesgatherstrong andenduringpolitical constituencies.
Scopingreview: sites andactors indecision- makingforsolar PVroll-out
Wereviewed literature on decision-making in solar PV roll-outpublishedduring 2018 2020.Thisreview drew onourdomainexpertisefromresearchonthegovernance ofsolarenergytransitions,andourbackgroundashuman geographers withafocus onscaleand powerdynamics.
WithinrecentlyburgeoningscholarshiponsolarPVroll- out,weshortlistedcitedreferencesbasedonrelevanceto actors(e.g. policymakers,energyregulators,solardevel- opers,energy companies and cooperatives)and sites of decision-making at multiple scales across diverse con- texts. In other words, we eschewed techno-economic studiesofresourceassessmentandintegrationwithother energy sources. Our focus was on roll-out governance, whichweunderstandasthe‘politicalandsocialpractice
dimensions of the diffusion of sustainableenergy tech- nologies’ [5:128],specific tosolarPV.
Alargeshare(20outof54)ofthearticlesselectedbased on clear thematic relevance to solar PV roll-out gover- nancewerepublishedinEnergyResearch&SocialScience, withafurther3–5eachfromEnergyPolicy,Environmental InnovationandSocietalTransitions,RenewableandSustain- able Energy Reviews, and Renewable Energy. Our review drewwidely,featuringarticlesfromotherenergystudies platforms (Nature Energy, Energy Sources Part B, Energy Strategy Reviews, Energy and Buildings, Energy, Applied Energy, Renewable Energy Focus) as well as journals in technologystudies(JournalofCleanerProduction,Technol- ogyAnalysisandStrategicManagement),environmentalgov- ernance (Land Use Policy, Environmental Politics), and human geography and development studies (Geoforum, WorldDevelopment,LocalEnvironment,JournalofEnviron- ment and Development). This diverse representation is notable; it indicates widespread interest in the gover- nanceofatechnologythathasgainedglobalsignificance and affectsmultiplesectors.
The literaturerevealsthreetrendsassociatedwithdeci- sion-making insolarroll-out:
(i) The debate on solar PV roll-out has evolved from earlierconversationsoneconomicfeasibilitytoanal- ysesoftransitionpathwaysanddynamicsatmultiple scales[6–9].Theseanalysesincreasinglyemphasise contextualspecificities,suchassocio-culturalenergy practices[10]socio-politicaldynamics[10–12],inno- vation environments [13,14] and public attitudes [15,16]. Scholars moreover address these in ways thatmovebeyondaGlobalSouth —Global North binary,insteadfocusingon socio-spatial andpoliti- cal-economic patterns and drivers [17–22]. Thus, scholarshipreflects thatdecisions on solar PV roll- out embody socio-spatial and political-economic complexity. This includes a trans-local focus on thesupply chains [23]and ‘afterlives’ [24]of solar PV modules, and on the varied actors [25] and evolvingstandards[26]thatdrivePVroll-out,includ- ingactorsattheglobalscalesuchasenergyagencies [27]whoenabletransnational cross-fertilisationand coordination.
(ii) Advancesinroll-outatutilityscalecreatessomeclear cross-sectoralrisksin sectorslike land andfinance, suchas largerural land footprints for urbansupply [28,29],theneedforlargeinvestmentsinelectricity transmissioninfrastructure[30–33],andexclusionof smaller investors from solar roll-out [34–37].
Research on these issues has identified scope to address these risks as opportunities for innovation andpolicy adjustment[28,30,38,31,37].Yet,studies showthatenergysectorgovernanceisheavilystruc- tured by political-economic factors such as
institutional path-dependencies and powerful incumbents[8,39–41],wherelargeentrenchedactors exertundueinfluenceonpolicymakerstoservetheir own interests, both as fossil fuel incumbents who slowdownsolarroll-outandaslargesolardevelopers whoseektodominatethesector.Thesetendencies indecision-makingcanseverelyunderminesolarPV roll-outatthelocalscale[5,18,19,26,35],andreduce thecontribution of PVplants toclimate mitigation by necessitating investments in carbon intensive electricity transmissiongrids[22,37,42].
(iii) Progress on community energy andsmall-scale PV plants hasbeenslowerthanatutility scale.Thisis causeforconcern,asresearchshowsclearlythatthe formercanbebeneficialforenergyjustice[20,34,43–
45],andadvanceequityanduniversalcleanenergy access goals.Nonetheless,notable emergingtrends includecommunitysolarPVprojects[5,43,46],elec- tricvehiclesandenergystoragetechnologies[2,45], energyflexibilitysolutions[42,48],andoff-gridand micro-grid plants [25,49,50]. Decision-makers can draw on insights regarding diffusion pathways for small PV plants, such as neighbourhood influence [51],post-adoptionuserbehaviour[52],theeffectsof subsidies[53],pricesignalling[36]andhybridbusi- ness models[18]onadoptionpatterns,andinterac- tion effects with other technologies embedded in energy practices[9,39].Thereisanurgent needto use lessons from small-scale solar PV plants for future rapid growth of emerging complementary technologies such as energy storage and batteries thatenable energyflexibility[2,42,48].
Overall, decision-making on solar PV roll-out displays characteristicsofwhatwecanterm‘scalarbias’—mean- ingthatlegal-regulatoryandpolitical-economicstructural conditionsfavourutilityscaleroll-outoverroll-outatlocal and communityscales. Researchcitedabove concursin attributing this to political-economic factors such as incumbencyandinstitutionalpath-dependencies,aswell as legislativeandbureaucraticrigidityandsectoralsilos.
For instance,thePortuguese solarPVroll-outonlytook off when structural changes by the executive agency enabled large-scale PV auctions. By contrast, the country’s small-scale PV roll-out required legislative changes whose implementation has been slower, with persistent structural and financial barriers [26]. A wide rangeof experienceswith small-scalesolarPVdiffusion revealsimilarpatterns oflackofadequatelycoordinated central support and financing [33,35,44], whereas large- scalesolarPVroll-outshavebenefittedfromsuchsupport [37,40,54]. While precise definitions vary by country, large PV plants are in megawatts — and recently giga- watts—whilesmallPVplantcapacitiesrangefromafew solarpanelsto hundredsof kilowatts.
Itisapparentthatrapidchangesareunderway.Decision- making isincreasinglybeingrecognisedas context-spe- cific both at multiple scales and at multiple levels of governance,aswellasintermsofsocio-spatialpatternsin PVplantinstallation.Yetthepaceofchangevariesacross scale,anditappearsthatactorsinlarge-scalesolarPVroll- outare ableto exert greaterinfluence and access more opportunitiesthanactorsinsmall-scalePVprojects.This reflectspoorlyonsectoral decision-making,which must anticipatesuchachallengeanddrawmoreproactivelyon insightstorectifyscalarbiases.
Theoretical review:thepolitical economyand scalarbiasesofsolar PV roll-outgovernance Tounderstandthebroadereffectsofthis‘scalarbias’in decision-making in solar PV roll-out, we next assess insightsintheliteratureconcerningsubstantialoutcomes for rapid and deep decarbonisation and energy justice.
Given that extant scholarship suggests that structural (legal-regulatoryandpolitical-economic)conditionsallow large-scalesolartoproceedmuchfasterthancommunity- based solar PV plants (due to incumbency politics and differentialbureaucraticbarriers),itisimportanttoassess existing knowledge on decision-making processes that can ensure rapid solar roll-out with sustainable cross- sectoral and distributive justiceeffects. Reviewing this literature,weidentifytwoclearresearch lacunae:
(i) Itis clear thatfactors such as livelihoods,stranded assets(ofenergycompaniesdeeplyinvestedinfossil fuel reserves that may be rendered uncompetitive) and political stakes [2], and contextually specific dynamics[3]holdthekeytodeterminethesubstan- tiveoutcomesof PVroll-outtrajectories.Neverthe- less, much of the focus in solar energy transition studiesis on evaluating prospects and outcomes in termsofinstalledcapacity,solarpotentialandspatial distribution. Technical and economic assessments woulddowelltointegratemoregranularunderstand- ings of political-economic feasibility to provide actionableanalyticalinputstodecision-makers.Lim- itedbutgrowingattentiontosocio-politicalpathways [6–9]highlightstheimportanceofexplicitlytackling politics of incumbency, providing a reliable policy horizontofacilitatetheentryofnewactorsatmulti- ple scales, and enabling the institutionalisation of solarPVinwidersectorallogics.Thesesocio-political dynamics have justice effects [10,22,37] that merit attention.
(ii) Thestate-of-the-artliteratureondecision-makingin solar roll-out remains divided along the lines of established epistemic communities. Whereas a pri- mary focus on such decision-making still remains conspicuouslyabsentinsomeleadingtechnicaljour- nals (The Electricity Journal, Environmental Research Letters), other technically oriented journals (Applied
Energy, RenewableEnergy) featuresuch an emerging focus.Notably, journals featuring energy social sci- ence (Energy Research & Social Science (established 2014),Environmental Innovation and Societal Transi- tions (established 2011)) have gained prominence, underpinnedthegrowthofcoherentepistemiccom- munities,andofferrichlycontextualisedaccountsof institutionaland relational aspectsof energy gover- nance.Moreover,thereisincipientattentionto this issueindevelopmentandhumangeographyjournals (WorldDevelopment,Geoforum,EnvironmentandPlan- ningC:PoliticsandSpace,Antipode),whichforeground establishedwaysofaddressingtransitionpoliticsand power dynamics as the mainframe. Despite wide- rangingrecognitionacrosstheseplatformsthatscalar biases characterise solar PV roll-out, few contribu- tionshavethus faraddressedthis issueexplicitly in termsof itsimplicationsfor decision-making.
Thus,weidentifyaneedforpolitical-economicframings todrivestudiesondecision-makingin solarPVroll-out, and in particular, for such studies to systematically addressscalarbiasesthatriskexcludingsmall-scaleactors anddistributingsolarPVbenefitsand burdensunjustly.
Some reviewed papers offer key insights on political
Table1
Emerginginsightstoaddresspolitical-economicandscalardri- versinsolarPVroll-out
[7]** Identifiesarangeofsolarprosumerpathwayshighlightingthe roleofmarketandregulatoryprovisionsbasedoncomparing trajectoriesinGermany,NorwayandtheUK.
[2]** Emphasisestheimportanceofnationalpolicyinenabling massiverapidPVroll-out,arguingthattargetedtrajectories demandattentiontocross-sectoralpoliticaleffects.
[40]** MapschangesindiscursiveframingsofsolarPVdrivenby incumbents,withportrayalsevolvingfromthreatsinto opportunities,asindustrialactorsrealignedtheirpositions.
[24]** Directsattentiontolife-cycleaspectsofsolarPVroll-out acrossgeographiesanddrawsonastudyinKenyatopresent perspectivesembeddedinculturesandeconomiesofrepair.
[21]** Emphasisesthematerialpoliticsoftheglobalsolarenergy sectorandusesthecasesofIndiatoshowthelimitsofnational politicaleconomyinenablingajustenergytransition.
[17]* Specifieshowpolicy-implementationgapsrelatetoflexibility insolarroll-outandactors’agencyandabilitytoimprovise, basedoncomparinglocalaccessprojectsinsixcountries.
[3]* Arguesfortheimportanceofsituatingdecision-makingwithin contextualneedsandcomplementingtechnological transitionswithplace-basedadaptation,basedonareview.
[46]* Mapsthecomplexentanglementsofenablingcommunity solarPVplantsunderlegislativerestrictionsandbringstothe forethesocialandlandscapeleveljusticeissuesatstake.
[29]* Providesarareexampleofamixedmethodsstudythat addressescross-sectoralimpactsofmulti-scalarsolarPVroll- outwithsensitivitytobothtechnologyandpolicyconstraints.
[47]* CombinesafocusontheemergenceofsolarPVandelectric vehiclechargingtoarguethatlargeincumbentscapitaliseon theirpositionandshapeearlytrajectoriestotheirbenefit.
economy (**) and scalar biases (*) thatwe highlight as usefulpointsof departurein Table1.
Conclusion:theneedtobuildstrong,enduring political constituencies
Toconclude,wesuggesthowfutureresearchcanbuildon identified lacunae, and we offer reflections to improve decision-making during solar PV roll-out by addressing potentialunjusteffectsofscalarbias,suchasexclusionof small-scaleactors(afailureofrecognitionandprocedural justice)aswellas unjustdistributive outcomes.
Anencouragingfindinginourreviewisthatadiverseset of country case studies [10–12,14,19,25,26,30,33,41,54]
offerafirmandbroadbasistoinformpolitical-economic approachesto decision-making intheir own andsimilar solar PV roll-outs. These analyses of governance in diverse energy geographies offer insights into avariety of approaches to address scalar biases and unjust out- comesofsolarPVroll-out.Policy-orientedresearchcould use theseas afoundationtoreconfigurepolicypriorities andinformactionformoreinclusiveandevenlydistribu- tive roll-outsatmultiplescales.
Amoreworryingaspectiswhetherrecommendationson how actorscansteerrapid,multi-scalarsolarPVroll-out willfindanaudienceamongdecision-makers.Thereason is precisely thepolitical-economic factorsidentified by theabovestudies:incumbencytactics,institutionalpath- dependencies andpower differentialsin actors’agency.
Weseescopeforcautiousoptimismhereduetotherapid costdeclinesthatmakesolarPVagloballyeconomically competitive energy source [1: p.12]. Combined with political backing through clean energy policies whose ambitionisincreasing(e.g. theEuropeanCommission’s targetof55percentemissionreductionby2030),solarPV is now undeniably attractive to most national govern- ments, and increasingly to local governments through innovativecommunityenergy models.
Infact,wearguethatadequateappreciationofscaleand justiceeffectsindecision-makingcanensurethatgover- nancedecisionstoimplementsolarPVroll-outgetahead ofthecurveandgatherstrong,enduringpoliticalconsti- tuencies,withpolitical-economicpayoffs.Asalreadyevi- dentinsomecitedstudies,thesepayoffsextendbeyond solar technologies and climate mitigation decisions, to keyballot-boxissuessuchasland,agricultureandtrans- mission infrastructure. When configured rightly, project siting,electrification,benefit-sharingandburden-sharing, and improved clean energy access can create strong publicsupportamong diverseconstituencies,andshape enduringcoalitionsbasedonacommonnotionofenergy citizenship. Responsive governance will allow govern- mentstocapitaliseonsupportfromwide-rangingconsti- tuents cutting across party lines, and in turn open up regulatoryspacetoaddressmoretechnocraticaspectsthat
remainmarginalinpublicdiscoursebutarenonetheless crucial to enable rapid, deep and just decarbonisation throughsolarPVroll-out.Theseincludetrans-localmate- rial impacts of solar PV (e.g. targeted throughprocure- mentrulesthatpromotecirculareconomy),andstructural barrierstoaccessandparticipation(e.g.mitigatedthrough communityenergylegislation),whichrequiremulti-level decisionssuitedto contextualspecificities.
Insum,evenasattentiontodriversofdecision-makingin solarPVroll-outiskeytoclimatemitigation,researchon its political-economic nature and scalar biases must be translatedintopolicyforums.Academicplatformsreflect amoveinthisdirection,butmusthybridiseevenmore,so thatgovernancesolutionsdirectthenatureofenquiryon thissocio-technicaltransition.Timingandrepresentation ofadiversityofneedsiscriticaltoaddressscalarinjustice throughlegislative resolveandpublicbackingfor ajust energy transition. Hearteningly, our review identifies knowledgeonrequisitepolicy adjustments.
Conflictofinterest statement Nothingdeclared.
Acknowledgements
TheauthorsaregratefultotheBergenResearchFoundation(grant BFS2016REK04,‘Europeancitiesasactorsinclimateandenergy transformation’)andthePederSatherCenter(grant‘De/re-regulationof powermarketsandevolvingsolarPVgovernance’)fortheirsupport.
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