0 5 10 15 20 25
0 5 10 15 20 25
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Chart 1 Emerging economies are driving oil demand
Cumulative growth since 1994.1) Millions of barrels per day. 1994 – 2014
China
Other emerging economies OECD
1) Forecasts for 2013 and 2014 Sources: EIA and Norges Bank
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 2 Strong improvement in terms of trade
10-year moving average. Annual change. Percent. 1900 – 2012
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
1) 2011 USD GDP-weighted average Source: IMF
Chart 3 Public debt – highest since WWII
Advanced economies. Debt to GDP ratio.1) 1900 – 2011
0 50 100 150 200 250
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
0 50 100 150 200 250
Source: OECD
Chart 4a Public debt to GDP ratio 1985 – 2012
Sweden Japan
90 110 130 150 170 190 210
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
90 110 130 150 170 190 210
Source: OECD
Chart 4b GDP
Index. 1985 =100. 1985 – 2012
Sweden Japan
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2010 2011 2012 2013
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Source: Thomson Reuters
Chart 5 Euro area crisis – less fear
Yield spreads against Germany. 10-year government bonds. Percentage points.
1 January 2010 – 11 February 2013
Spain Italy
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 0
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
1) Figures for October 2012 - January 2013 unrevised Source: Norges Bank
Chart 6 Government Pension Fund Global
Market value at end of month. In billions of NOK. January 1998 – January 20131)
0 2 4 6 8
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
0 2 4 6 8
Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 7 Rise in consumer prices
10-year moving average.Percent. 1990 – 2012
Consumer price inflation (CPI) 2.5%
0 2 4 6 8
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
0 2 4 6 8
Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 8 Rise in consumer prices and producer prices 10-year moving average. Percent. 1990 - 2012
Consumer price inflation (CPI) GDP deflator, mainland Norway 2.5%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1) Money market premium and risk premium on 5-year covered bonds Sources: Statistics Norway, DNB Markets and Norges Bank
Chart 9 Bank lending margins have increased Percent. 2007 – 2012
Long-term funding costs Key policy rate
Lending rate, residential mortages
1)
75 100 125 150 175
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
75 100 125 150 175
Sources: Statistics Norway and OECD
Chart 10 A manufacturing sector divided
Production. 2005 =100. January 2000 – November 2012
Total manufacturing production Norway Manufacturing production OECD
Engineering industry Norway
Other manufacturing subsectors Norway
80 100 120 140 160 180
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
80 100 120 140 160 180
Sources: OECD, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 11 Norwegian labour is expensive
Unit labour costs in a common currency. 2000 Q1 = 100. 2000 Q1 – 2012 Q3
Ireland
Norway (mainland) Spain
Sweden Germany
100 200 400
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 100
200 400
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 12 Mainland GDP – stable nominal growth
1994 = 100. Linear trend 1990 – 2006. Logarithmic scale. 1994 Q1 – 2012 Q3
150 150
300 300
100 200
100 200
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 13 Mainland GDP – slump in economic activity
Volume.1994 =100. Linear trend 1990 – 2006. Logarithmic scale. 1994 Q1– 2012 Q3
150 150
100 200
100 200
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
1) Pre-1997 population figures are based on a quarterisation of annual figures Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 14 Mainland GDP – per capita
Volume.1994=100. Linear trend 1990 – 2006. Logarithmic scale. 1994 Q1 – 2012 Q21)
150 150
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
Norway Sweden Denmark Germany Finland US Italy Greece
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
1) Proportion of working-age population (15-64 years) that is employed
2) Hours worked per person (15-64 years), as share of a normal working year of 1750 hours Sources: OECD and Norges Bank. Similar analysis has also been done by Hilde C. Bjørnland
Chart 15 Employment ratio is high, but hours worked are low
Employment rate as percentage of working-age population. Percent. 2011
Employment ratio
Employment ratio adjusted for working hours
OECD: Average employment ratio adjusted for working hours
1)
2)
0 1 2 3
0 1 2 3
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1) The numbers for trading partners are calculated as weighted geometric averages, cf. NOU 2012:11 Sources: Statistics Norway, TBU, OECD and Norges Bank
Chart 16 Productivity growth has declined
Change in gross value added per unit of labour. Constant prices. 5-year moving average.
1980 – 2011
Norway
Trading partners1)
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
1) Forecast for 2012 Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 17 Growth in real capital
Mainland Norway. Volume. Percent. 1995 – 20121)
Total Per capita
Average 1995-2011
Manufacturing Public administration and defence Wholesale and retail trade Technical services Commercial services Construction Health and social services
-50 0 50 100 150
Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 18 High growth in labour-intensive sectors Growth. 1000 person years. 2000 – 2011
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 19 Public purchases of goods and services Share of mainland GDP. Percent. 1970 – 2011
Investment Consumption
