Climate Communication Challenges

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Per Espen Stoknes, BI

Climate Communication Challenges

Per Espen Stoknes

Director Center for Sustainability & Energy BI Norwegian Business School

on twitter / insta: @estoknes

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• Spain, Sweden, Germany, Norway, California

• 2010-2019 is warmest decade measured

₃

2018: The summer from hell

8.Oct.2018:

• More heat waves

• Less Freshwater

• More floods

• Loose all corals

4 https://www.carbonbrief.org/scientists-compare-climate-change-impacts-at-1-5c-and-2c

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0

News response to IPBES Global Assessment report, May 2019 5

2019: “Brutal news” & strikes

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/05/brutal-

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Per Espen Stoknes, BI 7

the “big-4” climate attitudes:

1. is it real?

2. is it us? ie. human caused?

3. is it bad? ie. concern 4. is it too late?

Source: Roser-Renouf, Leiserowitz et al (2014) https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-014-1173-5

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2) Adults (%) who think earth is getting warmer   partly or mostly because of human activity

Source: Yale YPCCC Nov 21, 2019 https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ccom/

Average 60%= partly or mostly human caused

Source: Pew

US Canada France

%

“Climate Change is a major threat to our country”

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Rapporten er kun for internt bruk og skal ikke videresendes uten tillatelse fra Kantar [email protected] 20100534 Kantar Klimabarometer 2020 2009

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2009 Høst

2010 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

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2020 Vår

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nalitet Vei&bane Helse Helse Helse Helse Inn-

vandring Inn- vandring

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vandring Helse Klima Helse Klima

2 Helse Helse Helse Ut-

danning Krimi-

nalitet Vei&bane Inn-

vandring Klima Arbeids- ledighet Arbeids-

ledighet Helse Inn-

vandring Helse Klima Helse

3 Krimi- nalitet Inn-

vandring Inn- vandring Inn-

vandring Vei&bane Inn-

vandring Ut-

danning Helse Helse Helse Klima Klima Inn-

vandring Inn-

vandring Arbeids- ledighet

4 Klima Ut-

danning Krimi-

nalitet Vei&bane Inn-

vandring Ut-

danning Vei&bane Vei&bane Klima Klima Arbeids-

ledighet Fattigdom Krimi- nalitet

Krimi- nalitet Inn-

vandring

5 Finans-

krise Klima Ut-

danning Krimi- nalitet

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Økono- misk vekst

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nalitet Fattigdom Krimi-

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ledighet Vei&bane Klima Klima Klima Klima Klima Krimi-

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Klimaendringer topper igjen listen over Norges største utfordringer

39% av befolkningen ser «Klimaendringer» som en av våre tre største utfordringer

Rangering av Klimaendringer blant 14 saker

Viser de seks øverste av totalt 14 saker

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2018 2019

Svært NoeLitt Ikke

3) Bekymring over tid?

Norske svar:

“Hvor bekymret er du for drivhuseffekt og klimaendringer?”

Source: Ottar Hellevik, 1989-2019, Ipsos MMI’s Survey ‘Norsk Monitor’, 2018: Aasen & Vatn, ACT Cicero

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➡ 5 Barriers

➡ 5 Solutions

climate mes sage

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Psychological distancing

➡ low feeling of personal risk

➡ reduces sense of urgency

➡ low issue priority

Sources:

Leiserowitz, 2005, “American Risk Perceptions: Is Climate Change Dangerous?”. Risk Analysis, 25(6), 1433–1442. http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00690.x

Spence and Pidgeon, 2010, “Framing and communicating climate change: The effects of distance and outcome frame manipulations,” Global Environmental Change, vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 656–667, Oct..

Spence, Poortinga, and Pidgeon, 2012, “The Psychological Distance of Climate Change:

Psychological Distance of Climate Change,” Risk Analysis, vol. 32, no. 6, pp. 957–972,.

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Too much doom?

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leads to habituation, avoidance & stereotyping

Sources: Feinberg & Willer, 2010. ‘Apocalypse Soon?’ Psychological Science, O’Neill and S. Nicholson-Cole,2009, “‘Fear Won’t Do It’ Science Communication, vol. 30,.

Gifford, 2011, ‘Dragons of inaction’, American Psychologist 66.

Painter 2013. Climate change in the media. I. B. Tauris.

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Dissonance creates a demand for doubt

Two contradictory cognitions 1. “I have high emissions.”

2. “CO2 leads to climate chaos.”

Dissonance

Modifying one or both

cognitions

“My emissions are really quite

small”

Changing importance of

one

“Climate is always changing”

Adding additional

“I´ve installed solar, so my trip

to Thailand doesn’t matter”

Denying they are related

“There is no evidence linking CO2 and climate

change”

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Cars - express identity

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Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsC0kLNSLAQ

“Rollin’ Coal”: identity-protective cognition

identity overrides knowledge

Figure 6. Differential item function: belief in climate change. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo simulation based on logistic regression. Predicted probabilities for “Liberal Democrat” and “Conservative Republi- can” determined by setting Left_right scale at -1 and +1 SD, respectively. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence in- tervals.

That was the case in the sample to which I administered the OSI assessment instrument. The global-warming “belief” item was bifurcated, and subjects were treated as having responded correctly if they indicated both that “there [is] solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades” and that “the earth is getting warmer mostly because of human activity such as burning fossil fuels” as opposed to “mostly because of natural patterns in the earth's environment.” As was so for the NSF Indicator version of Evolution, the probability of a correct response was largely unresponsive to differences in OSI and close to 50% at both -1 and +1 standard deviations from the mean. In addition, the probability of a correct response varied dramatically in relation to political out- looks. At the OSI mean, an individual who identified as “Liberal” and “Democrat” had an 80% likelihood of answering the question correctly, whereas one who identified as “Conservative” and “Republi- can” had only a 20% likelihood of doing so. Indeed, the likelihood of a correct response sloped down- ward for individuals who were conservative Republicans: at +1 SD, the predicted probability of a correct answer was only 15% for such individuals (as opposed to 90% for liberal Democrats).

Thus, to say there is “no relationship” between science comprehension and belief in climate change would be incorrect. There is a very large one. But the nature of it depends on identity. Those whose cultural commitments predispose them to be concerned about climate change become even more so as their level of science comprehension increases. Those whose commitments predispose them to be less concerned become all the more skeptical. Far from increasing the likelihood that individuals will agree that human activity is causing climate change, higher science comprehension just makes the response that a person gives to a “global warming belief” item an even more reliable indicator of who he or she is.

4. Is identity-protective cognition irrational?

The idea that “disbelief” in global warming is attributable to low “science literacy” is not the only explanation for public conflict over climate change that fails to survive an encounter with actual evidence.

The same is true for the proposition that such controversy is a consequence of “bounded rationality.”

Indeed, the “bounded rationality thesis” (BRT) is probably the most popular explanation for public controversy over climate change. Members of the public, BRT stresses, rely on “simplifying heuris-

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-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Ordinary Science Intelligence Ordinary Science Intelligence

Probability of correct response Probability of correct response

“[Is the earth] getting warmer (a) mostly because of human activity such as burning fossil fuels or (b) mostly because of natural patterns in the earth’s environment?”

Liberal Democrat

Conservative Republican

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D. M. Kahan, 2014“Climate Science Communication and the Measurement Problem,” Advances in Political Psychology, vol. in press,.

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Identity driven conversations

Credit: www.AuthenticSustainability.com

How to break through the barriers ?

or maybe by-pass them?

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We’ve enough reports …

Five new strategies

Social Simple

Supportive Story

Signals

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Five new strategies

Social ^Simple

Supportive Story

Signals

Make it social and local!

Use:

• Social norms

• Social media

• Local issues

• Flow & glow

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1. Use Power of Social Networks:

rooftop solar is contagious

Sources: Graziano, M., & Gillingham, K. (2014). Spatial patterns of solar photovoltaic system adoption: the influence of neighbors and the built environment. Journal of Economic Geography. http://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbu036

1. Use Power of Social Networks:

Experimental studies to reduce domestic

power consumption by comparing four groups:

1. for the sake of sustainability and the earth 2. for future generations

3. because it is profitable

4. because your neighbours do it

Sources: Using Peer Pressure as a Tool to Promote Greener Choices by Richard Conniff: Yale Environment 360:

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Per Espen Stoknes, BI Sources: Using Peer Pressure as a Tool to Promote Greener Choices by Richard Conniff: Yale Environment 360:

Allcott, H., Social norms and energy conservation, J. Public Econ. (2011), doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2011.03.003

“People don’t just want to conserve energy, they want to be

acknowledged for conserving energy.”

Robert Cialdini, Arizona S.U.

1. Use Power of Social Norms

Green Sports Alliance

• More peer messengers

• Use local-patriotism: LA vs SF, Vancouver vs Seattle

• Make eco-teams out of existing groups and networks

Photo by Annie Marie Musselman

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Five new strategies

Social Simple

Supportive Story

Signals

Plate size reduced food waste by 19.5%

Introducing signs reduced food waste by 20.5%

Kallbekken, S., & Sælen, H. (2013). “Nudging” hotel guests to reduce

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A virtuous circle?

Simple Behaviors

Attitudes

Public support

Policies

Sources: Stoknes (2015) p. 129-131

Behavior changes matter to overcome dissonance and increase bottom-up support for policies

Five new strategies

Social Simple

Supportive

Story

Signals

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Per Espen Stoknes, BI Source: Lakoff 2014, Don’t Think of an Elephant

“Costly!”

“Job-killing!!”

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Health!

photo credit: Parrchristie via Flickr

photo credit: deadlyvibe.com.au

http://business.time.com/2012/10/31/hurricane-sandy-estimated-to-cost-60-billion/

Sandy (2012): ~60bn$

Insura nce !

The insurance frame: financial risk

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The insurance frame: financial risk

45 Source: NewClimateEconomyReport (2018)

19 UNLOCKING THE INCLUSIVE GROWTH STORY OF THE 21ST CENTURY

Figure 1

Global Occurrences of Extreme Weather Events.

0 1,000 2,000 3,000

Floods

0 200 400 600

Droughts

0 100 200 300 400

Wildfires

0 100 200 300 400 500

Extreme Temperature Events 1950–1966

1950–1983 1984–2018 1950–1972 1973–1995 1996–2018

1967–1983 1984–2000 2001–2018 1950–1983 1984–2018

Number of FloodsNumber of Wildfires Number of EventsNumber of Droughts

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oC

o

Green Growth

e bikes ‘taxi bus’ ride share car share bike share MaaS

P2P goods

P2P homes

internet of things

smart appliances

pre fab retrofits

smart homes

heat pumps

PV + storage

P2P electricity

vehicle to grid

disagg.

feedback

time of use pricing

demand response

energy service co.s

potentially consumer innovations

VR & tele presence

Embrace the opportunities framing

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The Positivity Ratio

The optimal frames balance

Five new strategies

Social Simple

Supportive

Story

Signals

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When faced with hell, we sell the dream

green growth is smart!

Photo: Timothy Allen

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Why smart, green growth ?

• Because it’s profitable

• Because it’s more expensive to continue as today

• The stone age didn't end because of lack of stones

• The petroleum age won’t end because of lack of oil, but…

• “Thank you, oil - It’s been good.”

$

€ £

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Ecological footprint

Quality of life

Tell stories of deep transformation

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Five new strategies

Social Simple

Supportive Story

Signals

Tailor signals for feedback

ducky.no

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Conclusions:

Are humans inevitably short-term?

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Climate Communication Challenges