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Shrimp in Greenland Waters

Management Strategies for Commercial Marine Species in Northern Ecosystems

Bergen 27-29 august 2003

By Helle Siegstad and Carsten Hvingel August 2003

Shrimp as they (sometimes) appears on the bottom

(2)

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

C atc h es i n ' 000 ton s

Totale shrimpcatches in Northatlantic

(3)

Greenland

Iceland

Canada

- and Europe

Greenland

Population: 56.000

West : 52.500

East: 3.500

(4)

Fishery in Greenland

Redfish

0 20 40 60

Greenland halibut

0 10 20 30

C at ch ( '000 t ons )

Northern shrimp

Year

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0 20 40 60 80

Atlantic cod

0

100

200

300

400

(5)
(6)

Other exploited stock

annual catch in numbers

• Thick-billed Murre ca. 250.000

• Eider ca. 100.000

• Narwhal ca. 700

• White whale ca. 700

• Mink whale ca. 150

• Fin whale ca. < 10

• Harp seal ca. 90.000

• Ringed seal ca. 100.000

• Caribou + Moskos ca. > 15.000

• Ptarmigan ca. 50.000

• Sheep farming ??

Marine

Terrestial

(7)

West Greenland Current - mix of cold and warm East Greenland Current - cold current

Irminger Current - warm current

Baffin Land Current - cold current

Our marine environment

(8)
(9)

GE 57 1997 East Greenland

Shrimp catches in tons 300 til 612 (3) 100 til 300 (5) 20 til 100 (24) 0 til 20 (108) 1997 West Greenland

Shrimp catch in tons 1.000 til 2.000 (4)

500 til 1.000 (35) 100 til 500 (107) 20 til 100 (139) 0 til 20 (367)

Shrimp catches

East and West Greenland

(10)

• The shrimp stock off West Greenland is assessed as a single population.

• The fisheries is regulated by:

– Quotas (TAC)

• Offshore fleet – in- or nearshore fleet - Canadian fleet

– Technical measures

• Mesh size / Grid

– Observer program – By-catch

The government politic for regulation

(11)
(12)

• The biological advice for shrimp in the

North Atlantic has traditionally been based on:

– Qualitative assessment of trends in various indices

– single-species assessment – one-year advice

– no or few attempt on prediction models

Assessment and advice of

northern shrimp

(13)

Y DATA in 1:33) {

survmed[i] <- 1.E-3,qs*Bmsy*P[i]))

surv[i] ~ urvmed[i],precsurv)

survmed[34] <- 1.E-3,qs*Bmsy*P[34]))

precsurv34<- v/2.25

surv[34] ~ urvmed[34],precsurv34)

in 35:N) {

survmed[i] <- 1.E-3,qs*Bmsy*P[i]))

surv[i] ~ urvmed[i],precsurv)

IOMASS AND PREDATION DATA in 1:N) {

#codmed[i] <- 1.E-3,coddata[i]))

#cod[i] ~ odmed[i],preccoddata)

Vmed[i]<- 1.E-

*Omax*P[i]*P[i]/(P[i]*P[i]+P50*

V[i]~dlnorm(Vmed[i]

DYNAMICS

P[1]~dlnorm(-

in 2:N) {

d[i] <-log(max(1.E-6,P[i-1]- exp(Vmed[i-1]))/Bmsy+m*MSY*P[i-

•for (i in 1:33) {

• survm

3,qs*Bmsy*P[i]))

• surv[

dlnorm(survmed[i],precsurv)

•}

• survm

3,qs*Bmsy*P[34]))

• precs

• surv[

dlnorm(survmed[34],precsurv34)

•for (i in 35:N) {

• survm

3,qs*Bmsy*P[i]))

• surv[

dlnorm(survmed[i],precsurv)

•}

•##COD BIOMASS AND PREDATION DATA

•for (i in 1:N) {

• #codm

3,coddata[i]))

• #cod[

dlnorm(codmed[i],preccoddata)

• Vmed[

3,cod[i]*Omax*P[i]*P[i]/(P[i]*P[i]+P50*P50)))

• V[i]~

•}

•# STATE DYNAMICS

• P[1]~

•for (i in 2:N) {

• Pmed[i] <-log(max(1.E-6,P[i-1]-(C[i-1]+e 1]))/Bmsy+m*MSY*P[i-1]/(Bmsy*(m-1))*(1-pow(P

• P[i] ~ dlnorm(Pmed[i],precP)

• }

Mathematical models

• Describe the development in the stock

• Include the influence of cod

• Predictions

• Risk calculation

•for (i in 1:33) {

• survmed[i] <- log(max(1.E-

3,qs*Bmsy*P[i]))

• surv[i] ~

dlnorm(survmed[i],precsurv)

•}

• survmed[34] <- log(max(1.E-

3,qs*Bmsy*P[34]))

• precsurv34<-precsurv/2.25

• surv[34] ~

dlnorm(survmed[34],precsurv34)

•for (i in 35:N) {

• survmed[i] <- log(max(1.E-

3,qs*Bmsy*P[i]))

• surv[i] ~

dlnorm(survmed[i],precsurv) }

Carsten Hvingel Ph.d. project:

Alternative assessment framework based on biological model of shrimp dynamic

- Bayesian methods

(14)

Data

• Biomass indicies

• Catch

• Cod predation

• Uncertainty

• Not included in the model at time being:

– size/age distribution – recruitment - SSB

(15)

Biomass

0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2

1975 1985 1995 2005

År

Bi omas se (fi sk er i-i n d ex)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Bi omas se (s u rve y-i n d ex)

Fiskeri-index

Survey-index

(16)

Catch

20 40 60 80 100 120

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 År

L a ndi ng ( tusi nd t o ns)

(17)

Biomass of cod

0 500 1000 1500 2000

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 År

Bi om as se t ors k (' 000 t ons )

(18)

Development in shrimp stock

Relative mortallity (Z t /Z MSY )

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

R el a ti v e B io m as s ( B t / B MS Y )

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

1956 1988 2002

1991

(19)

Risk associated with five optional catch levels

Catch option ('000 tons) in 2003 80 90 100 110 120 Risk of falling below B MSY <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%

Risk of exceeding Z MSY 1% 3% 10% 20% 34%

(20)

Status

Shrimp West-Greenland

• The stock biomass has increased since the early-1990s and reached its highest level recorded in 2002.

• Biomass is well above B MSY and mortality by fishery and cod predation is well below Z MSY .

• In addition a large 1999-year class is expected

to contribute to the fishery in 2003.

(21)

Advice for 2003 Westgreenland

• If catches exceed 100 000 tons in 2003 there is a greater than 10% risk of exceeding a

mortality, that is considered to be a limit reference point.

• NAFO Scientific Council recommends that

total catch in Div. 0A and SA 1 in 2003 should

not exceed 100 000 tons.

(22)

After 2003??

(23)

Future expected development

(…with a cod stock on present level!)

Dødelighed

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

B iom a s s e

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

2002 2002

2002

Fangst pr år 100.000 tons

Fangst pr år 80.000 tons Fangst pr år 120.000 tons

Catch / year Catch / year Catch / year

(24)

Risk evaluation

p(Zt>ZMSY)

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

p (Bt < BM SY )

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

80000 tons 90000 tons 100000 tons 110000 tons 120000 tons

2012

2012

2012

2012 2012

Risk for unsubstainable fishery

R is k f o r su b o p tim al sto ck size

(25)

Estimated consumption of shrimp by cod

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Year

Cod pre da ti on (' 000 t ons )

(26)

Estimated consumption of shrimp by cod

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Year

Cod pre da ti on (' 000 t ons )

(27)

Catch of shrimp in Alaska 1965-85

20 40 60 80 100 120

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Year

C a tc h ( '000 t ons )

(28)
(29)

• What is influencing these changes?

– interaktioner:

• cod / shrimp / snow crab / seals / whales / sea birds

• whom eat whom – takeout in generel

– incl. fishery and hunting

• How must – and what does it mean

– temperature – ice – bycatches

– trawling og effect on bottom habitat

We do see changes!!

(30)

Ecogreen ( Goal:to establish a scientific basis for

a long term ecosystem based management of renewable resources)

Natural Sciences

Full linkage of research areas Social sciences

Full linkage of research areas Physical

oceanography Ice

Plankton

Benthos

Fish and shellfish

Marine birds

Marine mammals Social system

Institutions

Interaction between social and

natural systems

Recommendations for ecosystem-based

management

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