MSG-6 : utslippsmodellenes ligningsstruktur : teknisk dokumentasjon

Notater

Birger Strøm

MSG-6

Utslippsmodellens lignings- struktur

Teknisk dokumentasjon

Forskningsavdelingen/Seksjon for makroøkonomi

Innhold

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;

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&2(46_M =&26_M +&+6_M +126_M ++)&6_M +3)&6_M +6)6_M +&+$6_MM³36 &2(4&_M =&2&_M +&+&_M +12&_M ++)&&_M +&+$&_MM³&3

Ê Ê

³

³

+

=

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M M

36

M &2 (46M &2 (4&

(4

&2

1\HV\PEROHU

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&2(4&&M 8WVOLSSDY.OLPDJDVVHURPIDWWHWDY.\RWRSURWRNROOHQVRPHUWLONQ\WWHW +XVKROGQLQJHUV.RQVXPLNRQVXPVHNWRUMPnOWL&2HNYLYDOHQWHU

&2(4&6M 8WVOLSSDY.OLPDJDVVHURPIDWWHWDY.\RWRSURWRNROOHQVRPHUWLONQ\WWHW 3URGXNVMRQVSURVHVVHQLSURGXNVMRQVVHNWRUMPnOWL&2HNYLYDOHQWHU

4 Øvrige utslippskomponenter

,WLOOHJJWLOXWVOLSSDYNOLPDJDVVHUVRPRPIDWWHVDY.\RWRSURWRNROOHQHUI¡OJHQGHXWVOLSSVNRPSRQHQWHU LQQDUEHLGHWLPRGHOOHQ06*NRGHULSDUHQWHV6YRYHOGLRNVLG621LWURJHQRNVLGHU12;

$PPRQLDNN1+)O\NWLJHRUJDQLVNHIRUELQGHOVHUXWHQRPPHWDQ92&.DUERQPRQRNVLG&2RJ 6YHYHVW¡Y30

8WVOLSSWLONQ\WWHWDYIDOOVEHKDQGOLQJ

8WVOLSSNQ\WWHWWLOIRUEUHQQLQJRJGHSRQHULQJDYDYIDOOHNVNOXVLYH0HWDQNQ\WWHWWLO$YIDOOVGHSRQHULQJ I¡OJHUXWYLNOLQJHQLWRWDOHDYIDOOVPHQJGHURJI¡UHVWLOSURGXNVMRQVVHNWRUVRPLQNOXGHUHU

UHQRYDVMRQVWMHQHVWHU

62 (;

:$6 (; :$6 662

*(1 662 (;

62 = ¼

12;(;

:$6 612;(; :$6 612;*(1

12;(; = ¼

92&(;

:$6 692&(; :$6 692&*(1

92&(; = ¼

&2(;

:$6 6&2(; :$6 6&2*(1

&2(; = ¼

30(;

:$6 630(; :$6 630*(1

30(; = ¼

6\PEROHU

&2(; 8WVOLSSDY.DUERQPRQRNVLGNQ\WWHWWLOIRUEUHQQLQJRJGHSRQHULQJDY$YIDOO PnOWLDQWDOOWRQQ

12;(;M $QGUHXWVOLSSDY1LWURJHQRNVLGHUNQ\WWHWWLOSURGXNVMRQVVHNWRUMPnOWLDQWDOO 30(; WRQQ 8WVOLSSDY6YHYHVW¡YNQ\WWHWWLOIRUEUHQQLQJRJGHSRQHULQJDY$YIDOOPnOWL

DQWDOOWRQQ

6&2(; 7HNQRORJLSDUDPHWHUNQ\WWHWWLOXWVOLSSDY.DUERQPRQRNVLGYHGIRUEUHQQLQJRJ GHSRQHULQJDY$YIDOO

6&2*(1 7HNQRORJLSDUDPHWHUVRPYLUNHUSURSRUVMRQDOWSnDOOHXWVOLSSDY .DUERQPRQRNVLG

612;(; 7HNQRORJLSDUDPHWHUNQ\WWHWWLOXWVOLSSDY1LWURJHQRNVLGHUYHGIRUEUHQQLQJRJ GHSRQHULQJDY$YIDOO

612;*(1 7HNQRORJLSDUDPHWHUVRPYLUNHUSURSRUVMRQDOWSnDOOHXWVOLSSDY 1LWURJHQRNVLGHU

62(; 8WVOLSSDY6YRYHOGLRNVLGNQ\WWHWWLOIRUEUHQQLQJRJGHSRQHULQJDY$YIDOOPnOWL DQWDOOWRQQ

630(; 7HNQRORJLSDUDPHWHUNQ\WWHWWLOXWVOLSSDY6YHYHVW¡YYHGIRUEUHQQLQJRJ GHSRQHULQJDY$YIDOO

630*(1 7HNQRORJLSDUDPHWHUVRPYLUNHUSURSRUVMRQDOWSnDOOHXWVOLSSDY6YHYHVW¡Y 662(; 7HNQRORJLSDUDPHWHUNQ\WWHWWLOXWVOLSSDY6YRYHOGLRNVLGYHGIRUEUHQQLQJRJ

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662*(1 7HNQRORJLSDUDPHWHUVRPYLUNHUSURSRUVMRQDOWSnDOOHXWVOLSSDY6YRYHOGLRNVLG 692&(; 7HNQRORJLSDUDPHWHUNQ\WWHWWLOXWVOLSSDY)O\NWLJH2UJDQLVNH)RUELQGHOVHU

8WHQRP0HWDQYHGIRUEUHQQLQJRJGHSRQHULQJDY$YIDOO

692&*(1 7HNQRORJLSDUDPHWHUVRPYLUNHUSURSRUVMRQDOWSnDOOHXWVOLSSDY)O\NWLJH 2UJDQLVNH)RUELQGHOVHU8WHQRP0HWDQ

92&(;M $QGUHXWVOLSSDY)O\NWLJH2UJDQLVNH)RUELQGHOVHU8WHQRP0HWDQNQ\WWHWWLO SURGXNVMRQVVHNWRUMPnOWLDQWDOOWRQQ

:$6 7RWDO.RPPXQDO$YIDOOVPHQJGHLDQWDOOWRQQ

8WVOLSSDYVYRYHOGLRNVLG

8WVOLSSDY6YRYHOGLRNVLGIUDPVNULYHVIUDYROXPXWYLNOLQJHQLGH¡NRQRPLVNHYDULDEOHQHIRU

%UXWWRSURGXNVMRQ;9DUHLQQVDWVHOOHUV9)\ULQJVROMHU)27UDQVSRUWROMHU)7RJ +XVKROGQLQJHUV.RQVXP&

62;_M =662*(1¼662;_M ¼k₆₂^; _M;_M +62(;_M M³36

Ê

³

=

36

M 62 ;M

;

62

62K_M =662*(1¼662K_M¼k₆₂^K _MK_M M³369 K³^9)2)7`³3)

62K6=62K&+62K8 K³^9)2)7`³3)

Ê

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=

36 M 62 KM

K

62 K³^9)2)7`³3)

Ê

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3) )7 )2 9

K M

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M 62 ; 62 K

6 62

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^

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62&_M =662*(1¼662&_M ¼k₆₂^& _M&_M -&._M M³&3

Ê

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=

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&

62

62 62 ; 62 K 62 &

3) )7 )2 9 K

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= _³

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1\HV\PEROHU

&M +XVKROGQLQJHQHV.RQVXPLNRQVXPVHNWRUMLIDVWHNM¡SHUSULVHU

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62& $QWDOOWRQQXWVOLSSDY6YRYHOGLRNVLGWLONQ\WWHW+XVKROGQLQJHUV.RQVXP 62&M $QWDOOWRQQXWVOLSSDY6YRYHOGLRNVLGWLONQ\WWHW+XVKROGQLQJHUV.RQVXPL

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62K $QWDOOWRQQXWVOLSSDY6YRYHOGLRNVLGWLONQ\WWHW9DUHLQQVDWVDYIDNWRUK K³^9)2)7`³3)

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626M $QWDOOWRQQXWVOLSSDY6YRYHOGLRNVLGWLONQ\WWHWSURGXNVMRQVVHNWRUM

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662&M 7HNQRORJLSDUDPHWHUNQ\WWHWWLOXWVOLSSDY6YRYHOGLRNVLGIUD+XVKROGQLQJHUV .RQVXPLNRQVXPVHNWRUM

662KM 7HNQRORJLSDUDPHWHUNQ\WWHWWLOXWVOLSSDY6YRYHOGLRNVLGWLONQ\WWHW9DUHLQQVDWV DYIDNWRUKLSURGXNVMRQVVHNWRUMK³^9)2)7`³3)

662;M 7HNQRORJLSDUDPHWHUNQ\WWHWWLOXWVOLSSDY6YRYHOGLRNVLGWLONQ\WWHW

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&

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K M

k62 )RUKROGHWLEDVLVnUHWLSURGXNVMRQVVHNWRUMPHOORPXWVOLSSDY6YRYHOGLRNVLGL DQWDOOWRQQRJ9DUHLQQVDWVDYIDNWRUKLPLOOLRQHUNURQHUNRHIILVLHQW

K³^9)2)7`³3)

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12;;_M =612;*(1¼612;;_M ¼k_12;M^; ;_M +12;(;_M M³36?^`

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612;; )(

612;*(1

12;; = ¼ ¼g^*:+_12; ¼

Ê

³

=

36

M 12;;M

12;;

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Ê

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+ +

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12;6M $QWDOOWRQQXWVOLSSDY1LWURJHQRNVLGHUWLONQ\WWHWSURGXNVMRQVVHNWRUM

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612;;M 7HNQRORJLSDUDPHWHUNQ\WWHWWLOXWVOLSSDY1LWURJHQRNVLGHUWLONQ\WWHW

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12;MK

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K³^9)2)7`³3)

12;M;

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^1+K= _M

Ê

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K M

M 1+ K

6 1+

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Ê

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3) )7 )2 9 K

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=

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1+6M $QWDOOWRQQXWVOLSSDY$PPRQLDNNWLONQ\WWHWSURGXNVMRQVVHNWRUM

61+&M 7HNQRORJLSDUDPHWHUNQ\WWHWWLOXWVOLSSDY$PPRQLDNNIUD+XVKROGQLQJHUV .RQVXPLNRQVXPVHNWRUM

61+*(1 7HNQRORJLSDUDPHWHUVRPYLUNHUSURSRUVMRQDOWSnDOOHXWVOLSSDY$PPRQLDNN 61+KM 7HNQRORJLSDUDPHWHUNQ\WWHWWLOXWVOLSSDY$PPRQLDNNWLONQ\WWHW9DUHLQQVDWV

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K M

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92&;_M =692&*(1¼692&;_M¼k_92&M^; ;_M +92&(;_M M³36?^`

*:+;

692&; )(

692&*(1

92&; = ¼ ¼g_92&^*:+ ¼

^{92&; =} _M

Ê

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92&K6=92&K&+92&K8 K³^9)2)7`³3)

Ê

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=

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Ê

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M

M 92&; 92&K

92&6

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Ê

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92&&

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92&;M $QWDOOWRQQXWVOLSSDY)O\NWLJH2UJDQLVNH)RUELQGHOVHU8WHQRP0HWDQWLONQ\WWHW 3URGXNVMRQVSURVHVVHQLSURGXNVMRQVVHNWRUM

692&&M 7HNQRORJLSDUDPHWHUNQ\WWHWWLOXWVOLSSDY)O\NWLJH2UJDQLVNH)RUELQGHOVHU 8WHQRP0HWDQIUD+XVKROGQLQJHUV.RQVXPLNRQVXPVHNWRUM

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92&*:+

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6&2; )(

6&2*(1

&2; = ¼ ¼g_&2^*:+ ¼