Bioforsk I Vol. 5 I Nr. 2 I 2010
Bioforsk-konferansen 2010
Erling Fløistad og Kari Munthe (red.) Mat, miljø og muligheter
Bioforsk er et forskningsinstitutt med spisskompetanse innen landbruk, matproduksjon, miljø og ressursforvaltning.
Bioforsk har også fokus på forskningsbasert innovasjon og verdiskaping. Bærekraftig ressursbruk er en grunnleggende premiss.
Bioforsk skal levere faglig kunnskap som næring, forvaltning og samfunnet ellers etterspør og med relevans til store utfordringer, regionalt, nasjonalt og globalt, slik som klimaendringer, biomangfold, fattigdom og global handel.
Bioforsk har som mål å være en regional, nasjonal og internasjonal konkurransedyktig produsent av kunnskap, tjenester og løsninger.
Bioforsk er representert i alle landsdeler.
FOKUS
Bioforsk FOKUS
Bi oforsk FO KUS Vo l. 5 N r. 2 20 10
www.bioforsk.noFrederik A. Dahls vei 20, N-1432 Ås Telefon: +47 40 60 41 00 E-post: post@bioforsk.no
%LRIRUVN)2.86
%LRIRUVNNRQIHUDQVHQ
6DPPHQGUDJDYSUHVHQWDVMRQHU
(UOLQJ)O¡LVWDGRJ.DUL0XQWKH UHGDNW¡UHU
$UUDQJ¡U
%LRIRUVN
%LRIRUVNNRQIHUDQVHQ%LRIRUVN)2.86
%LRIRUVN)2.86EOLUXWJLWWDY
%LRIRUVN)UHGHULN$'DKOVYHLcV SRVW#ELRIRUVNQR
$QVYDUOLJUHGDNW¡U)RUVNQLQJVGLUHNW¡U1LOV9DJVWDG 'HQQHXWJLYHOVHQ
)DJUHGDNW¡U/HGHUDYSURJUDPNRPLWHHQIRUNRQIHUDQVHQ(ULN5HYGDO 5HGDNW¡UHU(UOLQJ)O¡LVWDGRJ.DUL0XQWKH
%LRIRUVN)2.86 9ROQU
,6%1,661
)RUVLGHIRWR0RUWHQ*QWKHU 3URGXNVMRQRJWU\NNZZZNXUVLYQR
%RNDNDQEHVWLOOHVKRV
%LRIRUVN)U$'DKOVYHLcV SRVW#ELRIRUVNQR
3ULV12.
ZZZELRIRUVNQR
%LRIRUVNNRQIHUDQVHQ%LRIRUVN)2.86
)RURUG
%LRIRUVNNRQIHUDQVHQDUUDQJHUHVSn4XDOLW\
+RWHO 5HVRUW6DUSVERUJRJIHEUXDU 'HQQHERNDLQQHKROGHUVDPPHQGUDJDYDYWRWDOW IRUHGUDJVRPEOLUKROGWXQGHUNRQIHUDQVHQSOXVV DYYLWHQVNDSHOLJHSODNDWHUVRPSUHVHQWHUHV
$UWLNOHQHHUNRUWHVDPPHQGUDJDYIRUHGUDJHQHRJ ÁHUHDYIRUIDWWHUQHKDUODJWYHNWSnnKHQYLVHWLO DQQHQOLWWHUDWXURPHPQHW
,ERNDSUHVHQWHUHVVDPPHQGUDJHQHLGHQUHNNHI¡OJH IRUHGUDJHQHVWnURSSI¡UWLSURJUDPPHWIRUNRQIHUDQ VHQ6DPPHQGUDJHQHDYSODNDWHQHHUVDPOHWWLOVOXWW LERND'HWHURJVnODJHWHLOLVWHRYHUDOOHIRUIDWWHUH PHGKHQYLVQLQJWLOVLGHWDOOIRUDUWLNOHQH
3URJUDPNRPLWHIRUNRQIHUDQVHQKDUY UW(ULN5HYGDO OHGHU5DJQDU(OWXQ(VSHQ+DXJODQG(OOHQ0HUHWKH 0DJQXV0HNMHOO0HODQGLVWHLQ9HWKHRJ$WOH:LEH 'HWHUVY UWPDQJHVRPELGUDUPHGIRUHGUDJRJ SRVWHUHXQGHUNRQIHUDQVHQ'LVVHOHJJHUQHGHWVWRUW DUEHLGEnGHYHGGHWGHSUHVHQWHUHUSnP¡WHWRJGHW GHVNULYHUWLOIRUWU\NNHW9LHULPSRQHUWRYHUDWVn PDQJHKDUOHYHUWPDQXVNULSWWLOERNDVHOYRPWLGV SODQHQIRUSURGXNVMRQHQDYGHQHUPHJHWNRUW$OOH ELGUDJV\WHUHIRUWMHQHUHQVWRUWDNNIRUVLWWHQJDVMH PHQWLIRUELQGHOVHPHG%LRIRUVNNRQIHUDQVHQ
7DNNRJVnWLOcVH*UXQGVWU¡PRJ*UHWH6DOWRP5LNKHLP VRPKDUKMXOSHWRVVPHGNRUUHNWXUOHVLQJ
cVMDQXDU
(UOLQJ)O¡LVWDG.DUL0XQWKH UHGUHG
%LRIRUVNNRQIHUDQVHQ%LRIRUVN)2.86
,QQKROG
(WWXWKnOOLJWVYHQVNWMRUGEUXN²YDGlUXWPDQLQJDUQD"
/DUV%HUJVWU|PRFK5XQH$QGHUVVRQ
% UHNUDIWLG\UNLQJVV\VWHPIRUV¡NHW
$XGXQ.RUV WK
*M¡GVOLQJLRYHUYnNLQJVIHOWHQH-29$²WDSDYQ ULQJVVWRIIHU
/LQH0HLQHUW5¡G+DQV2ODY(JJHVWDG5LNDUG3HGHUVHQRJ$QQH)DONJDDUG
7UDQVSRUWDYQ ULQJVVWRIIHUJMHQQRPMRUGD
6LJUXQ+.Y UQ¡RJ0DULDQQH%HFKPDQQ
&DQZHVLPXODWHUXQRIIIURPDJULFXOWXUHGRPLQDWHGZDWHUVKHGV"&RPSDULVRQRIWKH'UDLQ0RG
6:$7+%9&283DQG,1&$PRGHOVDSSOLHGIRUWKH6NXWHUXGFDWFKPHQW
-RKDQQHV'HHOVWUD&VLOOD)DUNDV$OH[DQGHU(QJHEUHWVHQ6LJUXQ+.Y UQ¡6WHLQ%HOGULQJDQG$OLFMD2OV]HZVND
5HGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJ²RPIDQJIRUGHOHURJXOHPSHU
6YHLQ6N¡LHQ
.RVWQDGVHIIHNWLYLWHWDYWLOWDNLMRUGEUXNHW
.DUHQ5HIVJDDUGRJ0DULDQQH%HFKPDQQ
)RVIRULQGHNV²YXUGHULQJDYULVLNRDUHDOHULWLONQ\WQLQJWLOJM¡GVHOSODQOHJJLQJ
$QQH)DONJDDUG
%UXNDYRUJDQLVNHUHVWSURGXNWHUVRP1JM¡GVHO
7URQG.QDSS+DUDOGVHQ
2UJDQLVNDYIDOOVRPIRVIRUUHVVXUVLPDWSURGXNVMRQ
$QQH%¡HQ
)RVIRUEDODQVHLLQWHQVLYKXVG\USURGXNVMRQ
0DULDQQH%HFKPDQQ
9LUNQLQJDYDYO¡SVVODPSnIRVIRUWDSIUDODQGEUXNVMRUG
$QQH)DONJDDUG
%UXNDYDYIDOOVEDVHUWHSURGXNWHUYHGHWDEOHULQJDYJU¡QWDUHDOHU
$QQH%¡HQRJ7URQG.QDSS+DUDOGVHQ
8WYLNOLQJDYUHJHOYHUNWLOSDVVHWPRUJHQGDJHQVXWIRUGULQJHUIRUUHVLUNXOHULQJDYRUJDQLVNDYIDOO
7URQG.QDSS+DUDOGVHQ
)¡UVWHRPIDWWHQGHULVLNRYXUGHULQJDYDYO¡SVVODPL1RUJH
$QQH)LQVWDG
%LRUHVW²HQULVLNRL¡NRORJLVNODQGEUXN"
(VSHQ*RYDVPDUN%¡UJH+ROHQ-HVVLFD6WlE0LUMD6DONLQRMD6DORQHQ'RXZH+RRUQVWUD+LOGH0DULWVWOLH RJ7RPP\1HVEDNN
1DQRPDWHULDOHURJULVLNR+YDRJKYRUP\HYLOHQGHRSSLMRUG"
(ULN--RQHU
.DUERQODJULQJLMRUG²NOLPDHIIHNWHUYHGRPOHJJLQJIUDnSHQnNHUWLOJUDVSnEDNNHSODQHUWHDUHDOHU
$UQH*U¡QOXQG
%LRNXOOVRPMRUGIRUEHGULQJVPLGGHORJNOLPDWLOWDN
'DQLHO5DVVHRJ$UQH*U¡QOXQG
.OLPDHIIHNWHURJDQGUHPLOM¡NRQVHNYHQVHUDYGUHQHULQJRJDOWHUQDWLYEUXNDYP\U
%M¡UQ.O¡YH
%LRIRUVNNRQIHUDQVHQ%LRIRUVN)2.86
.OLPDVNLIWHIRUMRUGYHUQHW
$UQH%DUGDOHQ
8UEDQWSUHVVSnMRUGRJNXOWXUODQGVNDS
*XVWDY)\VWUR
-RUGYHUQ²PHUHQQRUG
6YHLQ*XOGDO
.XOWXUODQGVNDSHWVELRORJLVNDPnQJIDOGLHWWKLVWRULVNWRFKHXURSHLVNWSHUVSHNWLY
8UEDQ(PDQXHOVVRQ
5HVLOLHQVRFKHNRV\VWHPWMlQVWHULYlUOGHQRFKSnJnUGHQ
-RKDQ$KQVWU|P
NRV\VWHPWMHQHVWHUIUDN\VWO\QJKHLHQH
0RQV.YDPPH
'\UNLQJVVWUDWHJLHUYDUVOLQJRJKXUWLJDQDO\VHUIRUnUHGXVHUHULVLNRHQIRUVRSSJLIWHU
LQRUVNNRUQWLOPDWRJI{U
*XUR%URGDO,QJHUG6NRZ+RIJDDUG+HLGL8GQHV$DPRW2OHLI(OHQRJ6RQMD6OHWQHU.OHPVGDO
2SSWDNDYRUJDQLVNHIRUELQGHOVHULQ\WWHYHNVWHUYDULDVMRQPHOORPSODQWHGHOHURJ
YDOLGHULQJDYSODQWHRSSWDNVPRGHOOHU
7ULQH(JJHQ
9LUXVUHVLVWHQWMXOHVWMHUQH
'DJ5DJQDU%O\VWDG-LKRQJ/LX&ODUNH6LVVHO+DXJVOLHQ0HUHWH:LNHQ'HHV(UOLQJ)O¡LVWDG6KDRFKHQ;LQJRJ&DUO6SHW]
%HNMHPSHOVHDYERPXOOVPHOOXVSnMXOHVWMHUQHVWLNOLQJHU
1LQD6YDH-RKDQVHQRJ7RULO6DJHQ(NOR
3URGXNVMRQDYIUXNWWUHJUXQQVWDPPHURJIUXNWWU U
$UQH6 E¡RJ-DQ0HODQG
3K\WRSKWKRUDUDPRUXPL1RUJH
0DUtD/X]+HUUHURRJ%ULWD7RSSH
7REDNNSODQWHUVRPIDEULNNIRUSURGXNVMRQDYYDNVLQHU
-LKRQJ/LX&ODUNH(YHQ6DQQHV5LLVHU6KXDL*XRRJ6RQMD6OHWQHU.OHPVGDO
.OLPDHQGULQJHURJJHQHWLVNHUHVVXUVHULODQGEUXNHW
7RUH6NU¡SSD
.OLPDHQGULQJHURJNRQVHNYHQVHUIRUVW¡OVODQGVNDSHW²XWYLNOLQJVWUHNNRJWLOWDN
0DWV+|JOLQGRJ$QQ1RUGHUKDXJ
$UYHV¡OYSURVMHNWHW²HQSnGULYHUIRUnLYDUHWDNXOWXUDYKHQJLJELRPDQJIROG
(OOHQ6YDOKHLP
+DQGOLQJVSODQIRUVOnWWHPDUN
$QQ1RUGHUKDXJRJ(OOHQ6YDOKHLP
)UHPPHGHDUWHUWUXVOHUEHNMHPSHOVHVVWUDWHJLHURJWLOWDN
(VWHQGHJDDUG
+YDNMHQQHWHJQHUGHQLQQRYDWLYHE\JGD"
2GG-DUO%RUFK
8QJGRPRJPDWYHUGLVNDSLQJEDVHUWSnXQJGRPPHQVYHUGLHU
*UR&DUROLQH)O¡OR
(JHQSURGXVHUWÁLVWLOKXVG\UIUDPXOLJKHWWLOYLUNHOLJKHW
2GG$ULOG)LQQHV
%LRIRUVNNRQIHUDQVHQ%LRIRUVN)2.86
$NYDWLVNSODQWHG\UNLQJ²Q\Q ULQJIRUODQGEUXNHW
cVEM¡UQ.DUOVHQRJ&KULVWLDQ8KOLJ
-DNWWXULVPH²KYLONHQNXQQVNDSWUHQJHUYL"
$UYH$DUKXV
.RVWDUKMRUWHQPHLUHQQKDQVPDNDU"
3nO7KRUYDOGVHQRJ6DPVRQ/SVWDG
0RGHOOHUIRUDYVN\WQLQJDYKMRUW
(UOLQJ/0HLVLQJVHW
(UQ ULQJVÀVNHLLQQVM¡HU¡NRORJLVNRJ¡NRQRPLVNE UHNUDIWLJ"
+DOOYDUG-HQVHQ
2SSGUHWWDYU¡\HPXOLJKHWHURJXWIRUGULQJHU
6WHQ,YDU6LLNDYXRSLR
6NDGHG\UYHGIU¡DYODYU¡GNO¡YHU
7U\JYH6$DPOLGRJ$ULOG$QGHUVHQ
+¡VWHWLGRJODJULQJDYWLPRWHLIU¡
/DUV7+DYVWDG
7\QQLQJDYIU¡HQJ
-RKQ,YHUODQGRJ/DUV7+DYVWDG
6RUWHURJG\UNLQJVWHNQLNNLK¡VWROMHYHNVWHU
0DXULW]cVVYHHQRJ5DJQDU(OWXQ
7ROHUDQFHRIZLQWHUFDQRODWRIURVWDQGLFHHQFDVHPHQW
:HQG\:DDOHQ
0RGHOOHULQJDYRYHUYLQWULQJVVNDGHURJIURVWWROHUDQVHLK¡VWKYHWH
$QQH.DUL%HUJMRUG
9DULHUHQGHYLUNQLQJDYXJUDVPLGOHU
.MHOO: UQKXVRJ-DQ1HWODQG
6SLOOIU¡LYnUU\EV
.LUVWHQ6HPE7¡UUHVHQRJ8QQL$EUDKDPVHQ
2FFXUUHQFHDQGVLJQLÀFDQFHRIOHDIVSRWGLVHDVHVLQZKHDW
$QGUHD)LFNH
.YDOLWHW²YLNWLJHHJHQVNDSHULIRUHGOLQJVDUEHLGHWDYQRUVNYnUKYHWH
-RQ$UQH'LHVHWK
%UXNDYE\JJLEU¡GHUIDULQJHUIUD(8SURVMHNWHWµ%DUOH\EUHDGµ
6WHIDQ6DKOVWU¡P
3UHGLNVMRQDYDYOLQJRJNYDOLWHWVHJHQVNDSHULYnUKYHWHYHGKMHOSDYUHÁHNVMRQVDQDO\VH
6WHLQ,YDUYHUJDDUG
)RVIRUEDODQVHULYnUNRUQ
$QQEM¡UJYHUOL.ULVWRIIHUVHQ
*M¡GVOLQJVVWUDWHJLHU²HIIHNWLYYnURQQ
%HUQW+RHORJ+DQV7DQGV WKHU
(U¡NRQRPLVNRSWLPDOQLWURJHQJM¡GVOLQJWLONRUQRJVnRSWLPDOWIRUPLOM¡HW"
+XJK5LOH\
'\UNLQJVYHLOHGQLQJHUIRU0R]DUW/DG\-RRJ%HUEHU
3HU-0¡OOHUKDJHQ
%LRIRUVNNRQIHUDQVHQ%LRIRUVN)2.86
3RWHWVRUWHUWLO¡NRORJLVNG\UNLQJ
3HU-0¡OOHUKDJHQ
)RVIRUJM¡GVOLQJWLOSDVVHWVWHGRJVRUW
.ULVWLDQ+DXJ
1\WWRJQ\WWLJRPI\VLRORJLVNNYDOLWHWDYVHWWHSRWHWHU
(OGULG/HLQ0ROWHEHUJ
)\VLRORJLVNDOGULQJDYVHWWHSRWHWHURSSVXPPHULQJIUDIRUV¡NLNOLPDURP
7RU--RKDQVHQ
)ODWVNXUY²QRHQUHVXOWDWHUIUDVNXUYSURVMHNWHW
0HUHWH:LNHQ'HHV$ULOG6OHWWHQRJ$UQH+HUPDQVHQ
5¡GUnWH²HWSUREOHPL
$UQH+HUPDQVHQ0DULD/X]+HUUHUR(OLVD*DXVOnRJ5DJQKLOG1 UVWDG
5HVXOWDWHUIUDSLORWSURVMHNWVWXGLHRPSRWHWF\VWHQHPDWRGHU
5LFDUGR+ROJDGR%M|UQ1LHUH-RQ2ODY)RUERUG$UQH9DJOHRJ&KULVWHU0DJQXVVRQ
$YOLQJRJNYDOLWHWDYNDUYH&DUXPFDUYLVDPODLQQIUnKHLOHODQGHW
*XQKLOG%¡UWQHVRJ5XWK0RUGDO
1LWURJHQPLQHUDOLVHULQJIUDRUJDQLVNHPDWHULDOHUDNWXHOOHWLOJM¡GVOLQJDY¡NRORJLVNHJU¡QQVDNHU
,QJXQQYVWKXV&KULVWLDQ8KOLJRJ7RU$UYLG%UHODQG
)U¡NYDOLWHWLPDWNnOURW
+HOJH2VNDUVHQ
7LOWDNRJVWUDWHJLDUIRUNRVWQDGVHIIHNWLYWXJUDVUHLQKDOGLNnOURW
-DQ1HWODQG.DUL$DUHNRORJ\YLQG2YHUVNHLG
+YLONHEDNWHULHUHUnUVDNWLOGH¡NHQGHSUREOHPHQHPHGUnWHLQRUVNNHSDO¡NSURGXNVMRQ"
-XOLDQD,63HUPLQRZ$ULOG6OHWWHQ$UQH+HUPDQVHQ,QJHU/LVH:$NVHOVHQRJ(YD%RURZVNL
7¡UNHIDUWLVPDORJEUHLVWUHQJ.RQVHNYHQVDUIRUJM ULQJVNYDOLWHWRJQ ULQJVYHUGLSnVXUI{UHW
2ODY0DUWLQ6\QQHV$QQH.MHUVWL%DNNHQRJ$VWULG-RKDQVHQ
+\JLHQLVNNYDOLWHWLIRUW¡UNDVXUI{UIUnEUHLVSUHLGGYHUVXVVWUHQJODJWJUDV
$VWULG-RKDQVHQ2ODY0DUWLQ6\QQHVRJ$QQH.MHUVWL%DNNHQ
+YDNRVWHUJURYI{UHW"
\YLQG+DQVHQ
/lJOLJKHWVNRVWQDGHUYLGVN|UGDYYDOOPHGH[HPSHOI|UVN|UGHV\VWHPL6YHULJH
&DULQD*XQQDUVVRQ5ROI6S|UQGO\+nNDQ5RVHQTYLVW$OIUHGRGH7RURRFK3HU$QGHUV+DQVVRQ
,QSODVWDWYDOOIRGHUWLOOKlVWDU
&HFLOLD(0OOHU
+DXVWHUHJLPHIRUVY UWJRGWJURYI{USn- UHQL9DOGUHVRJL7U¡QGHODJ
$QQH.MHUVWL%DNNHQ0DWV+|JOLQGRJ7RU/XQQDQ
,QQKDOGDYSURWHLQRJÀEHULEODGRJVWHQJODUKRVWLPRWHLYHGXOLNHXWYLNOLQJVVWHJ
7RUVWHLQ+*DUPR$QQH.MHUVWL%DNNHQRJcVKLOG5DQGE\
$YOLQJRJNYDOLWHWDYEHLWHEODQGLQJDUKDXVWDYHGFPSODQWHK¡JGHJMHQQRPKHLOHVHVRQJHQ
$VWULG-RKDQVHQ
3URGXNVMRQRJXWQ\WWLQJDYJMHQYHNVWYHGK¡JHDYGUnWWVQLYn
$QQH.MHUVWL%DNNHQRJ+nYDUG6WHLQVKDPQ
.RPSRVWHUWVDXHWDOOHEUXNWVRPJM¡GVHOLHQJ
6\QQ¡YH5LYHGDORJ6DPVRQ/SVWDG
%LRIRUVNNRQIHUDQVHQ%LRIRUVN)2.86
.RQWUROODYK¡\PROHL¡NRORJLVNJUDVPDUN
/DUV2ODY%UDQGV WHU3DXO(+DWFKHU(VSHQ+DXJODQG0DWWKLDV.RHVOLQJ.MHOO0DQJHUXGRJ7RU/XQQDQ
2YHUYLQWULQJVHYQHRJI{UNYDOLWHWL)HVWXOROLXPVDPDQOLNQDPHGDQGUHDUWDU
/LYVWUHPRJ$ULOG/DUVHQ
5DLVYLQJHORJWLPRWHL²WLOYHNVWRJVODNWHNYDOLWHWSnRNVHU
0DUJDULWD1RYRD*DUULGR%LUJHU9ROGHQRJ+DUDOG9ROGHQ
6NDOWLPRWHLHQIUDPOHLVYHUDGRPLQHUDQGHLHQJIU¡EODQGLQJDQHYnUH"
7RU/XQQDQ
5HVXOWDWHUIUDLQWHUQRUGLVNSURVMHNWSn&ROOHWRWULFKXPDFXWDWXPLMRUGE URJNLUVHE U
*XQQ0DUL6WU¡PHQJ-RUXQQ%¡UYH$QGUHZ'REVRQRJ$UQH6WHQVYDQG
$OWHUQDWLYHPLGGHOPRWPM¡OGRJJLMRUGE U
$UQH6WHQVYDQG%HODFKHZ$VDOI+nYDUG(LNHPR$QGUHZ'REVRQ$QQH0DUWH7URQVPR 'DYLG0*DGRXU\RJ5REHUW&6HHP
.DQQ\WWHVRSSWLOI¡UHVYHGSODQWLQJDYMRUGE UIRUnEHNMHPSHYHNVWKXVVQXWHELOOD"
,QJHERUJ.OLQJHQ.DULQ:HVWUXP,GXQ%UDWEHUJRJ1LQD7UDQGHP
6RUWHURJJM¡GVOLQJWLO¡NRORJLVNMRUGE ULWXQQHORJSnIULODQG
-DQ.DUVWHLQ+HQULNVHQ
NRORJLVNHEULQJHE ULSRO\WXQQHOHIIHNWDYJM¡GVOLQJRJNOLPD
5ROI1HVWE\RJ$NVHO'¡YLQJ
(IIHNWHUDYQLWURJHQWLOI¡UVHOWLOXOLNWLGLIRUKROGWLOEORPVWHUGLIIHUHQVLHULQJLMRUGE U
1LQD2SVWDG$QLWD6¡QVWHE\8QQL0\UKHLPRJ2OD0+HLGH
6¡WHIHUVNHRJJRGH+DJHE UYnUQHVWHIHUVNYDUHVXNVHVV
$UQÀQQ1HV6LJULG0RJDQ6WDQLVODY6WUEDFRJ0RUWHQ8WHQJHQ
(QGULQJHULLQQKROGVVWRIILVROE UYHGXOLNK¡VWHWLG
6LY)DJHUWXQ5HPEHUJ
.OLPDHQGULQJNDQJLWLGOHJDUHMRUGE UVHVRQJ
$NVHO'¡YLQJ
0LOM¡YHQQOLJQ ULQJVXWYLNOLQJLQRUVNYHNVWKXVSURGXNVMRQ
+DQV5DJQDU*LVOHU¡G/HLY00RUWHQVHQ6LVVHO7RUUH$UQH6WHQVYDQGRJ1LQD6-RKDQVHQ
9HNVWKXVNOLPDRJLQWHJUHUWSODQWHYHUQ
1LQD6YDH-RKDQVHQ
9LUNQLQJHQDYEHO\VQLQJVWLGRJO\VNYDOLWHWSnPM¡OGRJJKRVURVHU
$UXSSLOODL6XWKDSDUDQ$UQH6WHQVYDQG6LVVHO7RUUH0DUtD/X]+HUUHUR'DYLG0*DGRXU\RJ+DQV5DJQDU*LVOHU¡G
(IIHNWDYNRQWLQXHUOLJEHO\VQLQJSnYHNVWKXVPHOOXV
1LQD6YDH-RKDQVHQ7RULO6DJHQ(NORRJ$QHWWH6XQGE\H
3\WKLXPDSKDQLGHUPDWXPHQYDQOLJYHNVWKXVV\NGRPL1RUJHNDQKDYHUWVSODQWHUSnIULODQG
0DUtD/X]+HUUHURRJ%ULWD7RSSH
$JURSXE²QHWWVLGHIRU¡NRORJLVNODQGEUXN
0RQD5LQJQHV
/XIWHJnUGHUIRURNVHUL¡NRORJLVNNM¡WWSURGXNVMRQ²HQSUHVHQWDVMRQDYSURVMHNWHW
/LVH$DQHQVHQ
9HOIHUGVSODQOHJJLQJL¡NRORJLVNNDOYHKROG
%ULWW+HQULNVHQ&HFLOLH0HMGHOORJ%HULW+DQVHQ
9HGOLNHKDOGVVnLQJLJUDVPDUN
/DUV1HVKHLP
%LRIRUVNNRQIHUDQVHQ%LRIRUVN)2.86
9nWVnLQJDYHQJRJnNHUYHNVWDU
/DUV1HVKHLP
%HLWHVNDGHUDYKMRUWSnJUDQRJIXUX
6DPVRQ/SVWDGcVPXQG$XVWDUKHLPRJ3nO7KRUYDOGVHQ
(FRÀVK6HDOLFHFRQWUROXWLOLVLQJUHDUHGEDOODQZUDVVH/DEULGDH
-LP7UHDVXUHU2GGYDU2WWHVHQ5LFKDUG)LW]JHUDOG-XOLH0DJXLUH1RQQD=KXUDYOHYD cVEM¡UQ.DUOVHQDQG&HOLQH5HERXUV
.OLPDHQGULQJHU²HURVMRQRJQ ULQJVDYUHQQLQJIUDMRUGEUXNVDUHDOHU
²HIIHNWHUIRUGULNNHYDQQVNYDOLWHW
$QQH*UHWH%XVHWK%ODQNHQEHUJ/LOOLDQ\JDUGHQ-RKDQQHV'HHOVWUD1LOV2WWR.LWWHU¡G +DQV2ODY(JJHVWDGRJ$WOH+DXJH
([WUHPHHYHQWVDQGK\GURORJLFDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVLQDJULFXOWXUDOFDWFKPHQWV
-RKDQQHV'HHOVWUD+DQV2ODY(JJHVWDG$UYR,LWDO9LHVWXUV-DQVRQVRJ/LQH-%DUNYHG
.OLPDHQGULQJHUNRQVHNYHQVHUIRUGHK\GURWHNQLVNHV\VWHPHQHLODQGEUXNHW
$WOH+DXJH
%LRGLHVHOIUDQRUVNHMRUGEUXNVYHNVWHU
/DUV/¡NHQ*UDQOXQG5DJQDU(OWXQ(ULN(LG+RKOH/DUV1HVKHLP:HQG\:DDOHQRJ0DXULW]cVVYHHQ
3UHVLVMRQVMRUGEUXNÁHNNVSU¡\WLQJDYIU¡XJUDVLNRUQ
7KHUHVH:LWK%HUJH6WHYH*ROGEHUJ.ULVWLQ.DVSHUVHQ-DQ1HWODQG\YLQG2YHUVNHLGRJ7U\JYH6W¡ODQ
+YRUGDQRYHUOHYHUVQ¡PXJJVRSSHQ0LFURGRFKLXPQLYDOHSnJROIEDQHUJMHQQRPVRPPHUHQ"
$QQH0DUWH7URQVPRRJ,QJHUG6NRZ+RIJDDUG
)XVDULXPDQJUHSI¡UHUWLOEODGIDOORJYLVQHVNRWLNULVWWRUQ
9HQFKH7DOJ¡-DIDU5D]]DJKLDQ6RQMD6OHWQHU.OHPVGDO7UXGH6O¡UVWDGRJ$UQH6WHQVYDQG
5RWRJVWHQJHOVMXNGRPPDULEHJRQLD
%ULWD7RSSHRJ0DUtD/X]+HUUHUR
3K\WRSKWKRUDSOXULYRUD²Q\VNDGHJMHUDUSnWUHL1RUHJ
9HQFKH7DOJ¡0DULD/X]+HUUHUR%ULWD7RSSH0D\%HQWH%UXUEHUJ5REHUW7KXUVWRQ7UXGH6O¡UVWDG RJ$UQH6WHQVYDQG
5LVLNRYXUGHULQJDY3K\WRSKWKRUDUDPRUXPHQSVHXGRVRSSVRPIUDPNDOOHU
UDPRUXPJUHLQYLVQLQJ
/HLI6XQGKHLP0DUtD/X]+HUUHUR7URQG5DIRVVRJ%ULWD7RSSH
%HUJVWU¡P/%LRIRUVN)2.86
(WWXWKnOOLJWVYHQVNWMRUGEUXN²YDGlU XWPDQLQJDUQD"
)UnJDQRPYDGVRPNDQI|UYlQWDVDYHWWXWKnOOLJWMRUGEUXNlUJDQVNDOlWWDWWEHVYDUD9LYLOONXQQD SURGXFHUDKlOVRVDPPDWLWLOOUlFNOLJPlQJGPHGVnOLWHQHJDWLYDPLOM|HIIHNWHUVRPP|MOLJW
/DUV%HUJVWU|PRFK5XQH$QGHUVVRQ
6YHULJHVODQWEUXNVXQLYHUVLWHW0DUNRFK0LOM|6YHULJHVODQWEUXNVXQLYHUVLWHW/LYVPHGHOVYHWHQVNDS ODUVEHUJVWURP#PDUNVOXVH
,QOHGQLQJ
)UnJDQRPYDGVRPNDQI|UYlQWDVDYHWWXWKnOOLJW MRUGEUXNlUJDQVNDOlWWDWWEHVYDUD9LYLOONXQQD SURGXFHUDKlOVRVDPPDWLWLOOUlFNOLJPlQJGPHG VnOLWHQHJDWLYDPLOM|HIIHNWHUVRPP|MOLJW'HWWD KDUNODUWXWWU\FNWVLÁHUDRIÀFLHOODGRNXPHQWXQGHU VHQDUHnUEODL%UXQWODQGNRPPLVVLRQHQ'HQ GHÀQLHUDGHKnOOEDUXWYHFNOLQJSnI|OMDQGHVlWW·HQ XWYHFNOLQJVRPWLOOIUHGVWlOOHUGDJHQVEHKRYXWDQDWW lYHQW\UDNRPPDQGHJHQHUDWLRQHUVP|MOLJKHWHUDWW WLOOIUHGVWlOODVLQD·7URWVDWWP\FNHWIRUVNQLQJKDUXW I|UWVLOLQMHPHGGHWWDV\QVlWWKDUGHWYLVDWVLJVYnUW DWWPHGSUDNWLVNDPRWnWJlUGHUUHGXFHUDVW|UQLQJDU SnPLOM|QWLOODFFHSWDEODQLYnHU)|UDWWInHQXSS IDWWQLQJRPKXUYLJnUYLGDUHLYnUWDUEHWHPHGDWW PLQVNDPLOM|VW|UQLQJDURFKI|UElWWUDXWKnOOLJKHWHQL OLYVPHGHOVNHGMDQKDUÁHUDDQVDWVHUDWWVDPPDQIDWWD ROLNDXWKnOOLJKHWVEULVWHUJMRUWVXQGHUVHQDUH)|OMDQGH lUH[HPSHOSnQnJUDVRPlULIRNXVLGDJ
%HURHQGHWDYlQGOLJDIRVIRUWLOOJnQJDURFKIRVVLO HQHUJL
'HWOlFNHUNYlYHIRVIRURFKEHNlPSQLQJVPHGHOWLOO
\WRFKJUXQGYDWWHQ
-RUGEUXNHWELGUDUPHGOXIWI|URUHQLQJDUVRPRUVDNDU I|UVXUQLQJHXWURÀHULQJRFKNOLPDWI|UlQGULQJDU
0DUNHQVE|UGLJKHWKRWDVDYPDUNSDFNQLQJRFK VMXQNDQGHPXOOKDOWHU
gNDQGHKDOWHUDYNDGPLXPLPDUNRFKOLYVPHGHO
3UREOHPPHGÁHUnULJDRJUlVRFKVYnUEHNlPSDG SRWDWLVEODGP|JHO
%HWHVPDUNHUQDVELRORJLVNDPnQJIDOGKRWDVSJD RWLOOUlFNOLJKlYG
)RGHULPSRUWHQELGUDUWLOOPLOM|SUREOHPLDQGUD OlQGHU
+XUVNDSDUYLGnHQKnOOEDUXWYHFNOLQJ"'HWlULQJHQ
WYHNDQRPDWWGHWlUEHW\GOLJWOlWWDUHDWWLGHQWLÀHUD YDGVRPLQWHlUKnOOEDUWDYGHWYLJ|UlQGHWPRWVDW WD'HWÀQQVRFNVnHQWHQGHQVLGDJDWWGHÀQLHUDKHOD RGOLQJVV\VWHPVRPGHQElVWDO|VQLQJHQI|UDWWNRPPD WLOOUlWWDPHGXWKnOOLJKHWVEULVWHUVQDUDUHlQDWWVlWWD LQVSHFLÀNDPRWnWJlUGHUI|UVSHFLÀNDSUREOHP
·(NRORJLVNRGOLQJ·VRPDYPnQJDDQVHVVRPGHWElVWD DOWHUQDWLYHWI|UHQKnOOEDUXWYHFNOLQJlUH[HPSHO SnGHWWD0nQJDSROLWLNHURFKP\QGLJKHWVSHUVRQHU KDUDNWLYWELGUDJLWWLOORGOLQJVIRUPHQVXWYHFNOLQJRFK VSULGQLQJXQGHUVHQDUHnU,6YHULJHKDUPDQVDWW XSSHWWPnODWWnUVNDDYnNHUPDUNHQYDUD HNRORJLVNWRGODG'HVVXWRPVNDGHQRIIHQWOLJDXSS KDQGOLQJHQDYOLYVPHGHOWLOOVNRORUVMXNKXVRFKDQGUD LQUlWWQLQJDUWLOOEHVWnDYHNRORJLVNDSURGXNWHU 'HWWDWURWVDWWGHWLQWHÀQQVQnJRWYHWHQVNDSOLJW VW|GI|UDWWHNRORJLVNWODQWEUXNELGUDUWLOOHQKnOOEDU XWYHFNOLQJHOOHUQ\WWLJDUHPDW
1HGDQI|OMHUHQNRUWIDWWDGVDPPDQIDWWQLQJDYQnJUD IlOWI|UV|NGlUPDQMlPI|UWNRQYHQWLRQHOORFKHNROR JLVNRGOLQJPHGDYVHHQGHSnVN|UGRFKXWODNQLQJDY NYlYH'HVVXWRPUHGRYLVDVHQNRUWIDWWDGVDPPDQIDWW QLQJDYYDGVRPNDQJ|UDVI|UDWWPLQVNDOlFNDJHDY Yl[WQlULQJIUnQVYHQVNWMRUGEUXN
6N|UGRFKXWODNQLQJDYNYlYHL NRQYHQWLRQHOODRFKHNRORJLVNDV\VWHP
)|UV|NVSODWVHUQDVRPUHGRYLVDVKlUlUEHOlJQDL +DOODQG0HOOE\RFK6NnQH%MlUU|G0HOOE\SURÀOHQ EHVWnUDYVDQGPHGDQ%MlUU|GSURÀOHQlUHQOlWWOHUD ,UXWRUSn0HOOE\KDUWlFNGLNHVV\VWHPLQVWDOOHUDWVI|U XWODNQLQJVPlWQLQJDU'HUHVXOWDWVRPUHGRYLVDVKlU IUnQ0HOOE\KlQI|UVLJWLOOHQHNRORJLVNRFKHQNRQYHQ WLRQHOOnULJYl[WI|OMGXWDQGMXU3n%MlUU|GYDUGH nULJDYl[WI|OMGHUQDJHQRPI|UGDJnQJHUGYVGHQ WRWDODI|UV|NVSHULRGHQYDUnURFKGMXUYDULQNOXGH
%HUJVWU¡P/%LRIRUVN)2.86
UDGH(QGHWDOMHUDGEHVNULYQLQJDYI|UV|NHQKDUJMRUWV DY7RUVWHQVVRQPÁVDPW.LUFKPDQQPÁ
6N|UGDUQDYDUDOOWLGOlJUHLGHHNRORJLVNDYl[WI|OMGHU QDMlPI|UWPHGGHNRQYHQWLRQHOOD3n0HOOE\YDUGHQ nUOLJDPHGHOVN|UGHQNJWVKDLGHQNRQYHQWLR QHOODYl[WI|OMGHQRFKHQGDVWNJWVKDLGHQHNR ORJLVND0RWVYDUDQGHVLIIURUYDURFKNJWV KDSn%MlUU|GYLONHW|YHUHQVVWlPPHUPHGGHVLIIURU VRPUHGRYLVDVLRIÀFLHOOVYHQVNVWDWLVWLN'HQDYVHYlUW OlJUHVN|UGHQSn0HOOE\EHURGGHKXYXGVDNOLJHQSn DWWPDQXQGHUWYnnURGODGHJU|QJ|GVOLQJVJU|GRURFK I|OMDNWOLJHQLQWHÀFNQnJRQVN|UGDOOVDYDYVDOXJU|
GRUVDPWDWWGHWnUPDQRGODGHSRWDWLVEOHYVN|UGHQ P\FNHWOnJSJDEUXQU|WD
'HQnUOLJDNYlYHXWODNQLQJHQLUXWRUQDSn0HOOE\YDU LPHGHOWDONJKDIUnQGHWNRQYHQWLRQHOODRGOLQJV V\VWHPHWRFKNJKDIUnQGHWHNRORJLVND2PPDQ EHDNWDUGHQDYVHYlUWOlJUHVN|UGHQIUnQGHWHNROR JLVNDV\VWHPHWRFKXWWU\FNHUNYlYHXWODNQLQJHQSHU VN|UGDGHQKHWLVWlOOHWI|USHUKDEOLUVNLOOQDGHQPHO ODQV\VWHPHQlQQXVW|UUHNRQYUHVSNJ1 WRQWVHNRO
5HGXFHUDGNYlYHXWODNQLQJRFKGlUPHG I|UElWWUDGXWKnOOLJKHW
$WWPDQWURWVDOOWNRPPLWHQEUDELWSnYlJQlUGHW JlOOHUDWWUHGXFHUDNYlYHXWODNQLQJIUnQMRUGEUXNVPDUN YLVDVLÀJXU,XWODNQLQJVYDWWHQIUnQHWWREVHUYD WLRQVIlOWLV|GUD6YHULJHKDUNYlYHKDOWHUQDVMXQNLW IUnQGU\JWPJ/XQGHUWDOHWWLOOXQGHUPJ/
LGDJ'HWWDKDUNXQQDWVNHSJDEUXNHWDYWUlII
VlNUDPRWnWJlUGHUVRPWH[InQJJU|GRUUHGXFHUDG MRUGEHDUEHWQLQJYnWPDUNHUPPVRPDOODELGUDUWLOO I|UElWWUDGXWKnOOLJKHWDYMRUGEUXNVV\VWHPHQRFKNDQ JHQRPI|UDVXWDQDWWQlPQYlUWI|UORUDLDYNDVWQLQJ 6RPUHVXOWDWHQRYDQYLVDUNDQHQ|YHUJnQJWLOOHNR ORJLVNRGOLQJGlUHPRWLQWHI|UYlQWDVYDUDHQHIIHNWLY nWJlUGI|UPLQVNDWNYlYHOlFNDJHRFKHIIHNWHUQDSn VN|UGHXWE\WHWlUEHW\GDQGH.LUFKPDQQ %HUJVWU|P (NRORJLVNRGOLQJOHGHUGHVVXWRPRIWDWLOOEULVW SnYLNWLJDQlULQJVlPQHQVRPIRVIRURFKNDOLXPYLONHW
\WWHUOLJDUHI|UVlPUDUXWKnOOLJKHWHQ
3nLQGLYLGQLYnNDQ·NlQVODQ·InVW\UDRPPDQN|SHU HNRORJLVNWHOOHUNRQYHQWLRQHOOWSURGXFHUDGHOLYVPHG HOPHQSnVDPKlOOVQLYnE|UIDNWDYlJOHGDKnOOEDU KHWVDUEHWHW
5HIHUHQVHU
-RKDQVVRQ* *XVWDIVRQ$2EVHUYDWLRQVIlOWSn nNHUPDUN$YULQQLQJRFKYl[WQlULQJVI|UOXVWHUI|UGHW DJURK\GURORJLVNDnUHWVDPWHQOnQJWLGV|
YHUVLNW7HNQLVNUDSSRUW6ZHGLVK8QLYHUVLW\RI
$JULFXOWXUDO6FLHQFHV'LYRI:DWHU4XDOLW\0DQDJHPHQW 8SSVDOD
.LUFKPDQQ+%HUJVWU|P/.lWWHUHU70DWWVVRQ/
*HVVOHLQ6&RPSDULVRQRI6ZHGLVKORQJWHUP RUJDQLFDQGFRQYHQWLRQDOFURSOLYHVWRFNV\VWHPVRQD SUHYLRXVO\QXWULHQWGHSOHWHGVRLO$JURQRP\-RXUQDO
.LUFKPDQQ+ %HUJVWU|P/UHG2UJDQLFFURS SURGXFWLRQ²DPELWLRQVDQGOLPLWDWLRQVSS6SULQJHU 'RRUGUHFKW7KH1HWKHUODQGV
7RUVWHQVVRQ*$URQVVRQ+ %HUJVWU|P/1XWULHQW XVHHIÀFLHQFLHVDQGOHDFKLQJRIRUJDQLFDQGFRQYHQWLRQDO FURSSLQJV\VWHPVLQ6ZHGHQ$JURQRP\-RXUQDO
)LJXU1LWUDW1RI\OOGDV\PEROHU RFKWRWDO1I\OOGDV\PEROHUNRQ FHQWUDWLRQHUPJ/LGUlQHULQJV YDWWHQIUnQHQVDQGMRUGLV|GUD 6YHULJH-RKDQVVRQ *XVWDIVRQ
-RUG
.RUV WK$%LRIRUVN)2.86
% UHNUDIWLG\UNLQJVV\VWHPIRUV¡NHW
'HWHUQnRYHUnUVLGHQGHWRPIDWWHQGHIRUV¡NHWPHGG\UNLQJVV\VWHPHUEOHDQODJWSn$SHOVYROO, nUHQHVO¡SKDUIRUV¡NHWELGUDWWWLOn¡NHYnUNXQQVNDSLVNM ULQJVSXQNWHWPHOORPODQGEUXNRJPLOM¡
,EOH% UHNUDIWLJODQGEUXNHWDEOHUWVRPHWVWUDWHJLVNVDWVQLQJVRPUnGHL%LRIRUVN+YRUGDQHU E UHNUDIWHQLG\UNLQJVV\VWHPHQHSn$SHOVYROO"
$XGXQ.RUV WK
%LRIRUVNVW$SHOVYROO DXGXQNRUVDHWK#ELRIRUVNQR
'\UNLQJVV\VWHPIRUV¡NHWRJE UHNUDIW
(QKHOKHWOLJE UHNUDIWVDQDO\VHHUVnODQJWLNNHJMHQ QRPI¡UWIRUV\VWHPHQHVRPHUPHGLGHWODQJYDULJH V\VWHPIRUV¡NHWSn$SHOVYROO,GHWI¡OJHQGHEOLUGHW IRNXVHUWSnHWWDVSHNWVRPHUUHOHYDQWPKWE UH NUDIW(QGULQJHUDYMRUGDVQ ULQJVVWRIÁDJUH,HW V\VWHPGHUGHWERUWI¡UHVPHUQ ULQJVVWRIIJMHQQRP VDOJDYSURGXNWHURJWDSWLOPLOM¡HWHQQGHWVRP WLOI¡UHVVNMHUGHWHQW ULQJSnMRUGDVQ ULQJVODJUH (LQ ULQJVULNMRUGNDQKDUHODWLYWVWRUHODJUHDYEnGH QLWURJHQ1IRVIRU3RJNDOLXP.GHWUHNYDQWL WDWLYWYLNWLJVWHSODQWHQ ULQJVVWRIIHQH7 ULQJRYHU WLGYLOLPLGOHUWLGWLOVOXWWJM¡UHDWQ ULQJVODJUHQHEOLU IRUVPnWLODWHQRSSQnUHQWLIUHGVVWLOOHQGHQ ULQJV IRUV\QLQJDYNXOWXUSODQWHQH9LInUDYOLQJVVYLNW'HW PRWVDWWHHUKHOOHULNNH¡QVNHOLJ1nUGHWWLOI¡UHVPHU Q ULQJHQQGHWIMHUQHV¡NHUQ ULQJVODJHUHWLMRUGD 'HWWHJM¡UDWULVLNRHQIRUWDSWLOPLOM¡HW¡NHU.KDU LQJHQGLUHNWHQHJDWLYHNRQVHNYHQVHUIRUPLOM¡HWVOLN 1RJ3KDUPHQXQ¡GYHQGLJHWDSLQQHE UHUGnUOLJ UHVVXUVXWQ\WWHOVH
(QUREXVWPHWRGHIRUnYXUGHUHRPHWV\VWHPW UHUSnHOOHUE\JJHURSSMRUGDVQ ULQJVODJUHHUn NYDQWLÀVHUHDOOHVWU¡PPHULQQRJXWDYV\VWHPHWRJ VHWWHRSSHQQ ULQJVEDODQVH1 ULQJVEDODQVHUNDQ EHUHJQHVSnXOLNHQLYn,WDEHOOHUQ ULQJVEDODQVHU EHUHJQHWSnDUHDOQLYnIRU3RJ.VH.RUVDHWKIRU 1EDODQVHUSnDUHDORJJnUGVQLYn'HWEHW\UDWDOOH VWU¡PPHQHDY3RJ.LQQRJXWDYKYHUWMRUGVW\NNHHU WDWWPHG
7RKRYHGSURGXNVMRQVW\SHUHUUHSUHVHQWHUWLIRUV¡
NHWnSHQnNHUSURGXNVMRQRJNRPELQHUWNRUQRJ PHONHSURGXNVMRQ,GHQI¡UVWHJUXSSDHUGHWPHGHW NRQYHQVMRQHOWV\VWHPVRPGULYHVVRPLI¡UPLOM¡
EOHHWVHQWUDOWWHPDLODQGEUXNHWµJDPPHOGDJVµ 6\VWHPHWK¡VWSO¡\HV7LOVDPPHQOLJQLQJHUGHWPHGHW
PHUPRGHUQHV\VWHPGHUYLWDULEUXNGDJHQVNXQQ VNDSIRUnRSSUHWWKROGHSURGXNVMRQHQPHGPLQVWPX OLJQ ULQJVDYUHQQLQJ'HWWHRPIDWWHUEODUHGXVHUW MRUGDUEHLGLQJIDQJYHNVWRJGHOWJM¡GVOLQJDYKYHWHQ 'HWVLVWHV\VWHPHWLnSHQnNHUJUXSSDHUHW¡NRORJLVN NRUQV\VWHPGHUHQHVWHQ ULQJVWLOI¡UVHONRPPHUIUD ELRORJLVN1ÀNVHULQJLHLNO¡YHUHQJJU¡QQJM¡GVOLQJ 6\VWHPHWYnUSO¡\HV
,JUXSSDPHGNRPELQHUWNRUQRJPHONHSURGXNVMRQ HUGHWPHGHWWNRQYHQVMRQHOWV\VWHPPHGHQJ LRPO¡SHWRJWR¡NRORJLVNHV\VWHPHUHWWPHG HQJRJHWWPHGHQJLRPO¡SHW'HWRVLVWQHYQWH HUDQWDWWVHOYIRUV\QWPHGI{UE\JJHWWHQNHVEUXNW VRPNUDIWI{UPHGHQNUDIWI{UDQGHOSn0HQJ GHQKXVG\UJM¡GVHOWLOJMHQJHOLJEHUHJQHVXWIUDVDPOHW I{USURGXNVMRQ,GHWNRQYHQVMRQHOOHV\VWHPHWVHOJHV DOWNRUQHWRJNUDIWI{UDQWDVLQQNM¡SWWLOVYDUHQGHHQ NUDIWI{UDQGHOSn$OOHV\VWHPHQHLGHQQHJUXSSD YnUSO¡\HV
'HWUHNRQYHQVMRQHOOHV\VWHPHQHKDGGHHWnUOLJRYHU VNXGGDY3SnNJSUGHNDUPHQVGH¡NRORJLV NHV\VWHPHQHW UHWSnMRUGDV3ODJHUPHGNJ SHUGHNDURJnU0¡QVWHUHWYDUGHWVDPPHIRU.PHQ EnGHRYHURJXQGHUVNXGGHQHYDUKHUVW¡UUHWDEHOO 5HVXOWDWHQHYLVHUDOWVnDWGHWJM¡GVOHVPHGIRU P\H3RJ.LGHNRQYHQVMRQHOOHV\VWHPHQHPHQVGHW WLOI¡UHVIRUOLWHDYGLVVHQ ULQJVVWRIIHQHLGH¡NROR JLVNHV\VWHPHQHLIRUV¡NHW,SUDNVLVOLJJHUNUDIWI{UDQ GHOHQLPHONHSURGXNVMRQHQK¡\HUHPHGQHVWHQ LNRQYHQVMRQHOOHV\VWHPHURJUXQGWL¡NRORJLVNH 0HULQQNM¡SWI{UYLOOH¡NWULVLNRHQIRURYHUVNXGGLGHW NRQYHQVMRQHOOHV\VWHPHWNWIRUEUXNDYNUDIWI{ULGH
¡NRORJLVNHV\VWHPHQHYLOOHUHGXVHUWXQGHUVNXGGHWSn DUHDOQLYnQRH'HWHULPLGOHUWLGHWPnOnKROGHNUDIW I{UDQGHOHQODYYHG¡NRORJLVNSURGXNVMRQ
.RUV WK$%LRIRUVN)2.86
5HVXOWDWHQHYLVHUDWEHOJYHNVWHULRPO¡SHWHYHQWXHOW LNRPELQDVMRQPHGKXVG\UJM¡GVHOIUDHJHQJnUGLNNH HUQRNWLOnVLNUHHQWLOVWUHNNHOLJQ ULQJVIRUV\QLQJ DOHQH(WJRGWDOWHUQDWLYYLOY UHnWDLEUXNRUJDQLV NHUHVWSURGXNWHUIUDVWRUVDPIXQQHWVRPQ ULQJVNLO GHUVOLNVRPNRPSRVWPDWDYIDOORJELRJDVVUHVW%UXN DYVOLNHQ ULQJVNLOGHUYLOEHGUHQ ULQJVWLOI¡UVHOHQL HQGHO¡NRORJLVNHRPO¡SVDPWLGLJVRPPHQQHVNHW LJMHQYLONXQQHEOLHQQDWXUOLJGHODYQ ULQJVNUHWV O¡SHWRJVnSnNRQYHQVMRQHOOHJnUGHU'HWJMHQVWnU HQGHOSUDNWLVNHXWIRUGULQJHUI¡UHQVOLNE UHNUDIWLJ XWYLNOLQJHUSnSODVV
'\UNLQJVV\VWHPIRUV¡NHWHUÀQDQVLHUWDY%LRIRUVN /DQGEUXNVRJPDWGHSDUWHPHQWHWRJ<DUD,QWHUQDWLRQDO
$6$
5HIHUDQVHU
.RUV WK$5HODWLRQVEHWZHHQQLWURJHQOHDFKLQJDQG IRRGSURGXFWLYLW\LQRUJDQLFDQGFRQYHQWLRQDOFURSSLQJ V\VWHPVLQDORQJWHUPÀHOGVWXG\$JULFXOWXUH(FRV\V WHPVDQG(QYLURQPHQW
'\UNLQJVV\VWHPHU cSHQnNHUSURGXNVMRQ .RUQNM¡WWPHONHSURGXNVMRQ
.RQYHQVMRQHOO .RQY NRORJLVN .RQY NRORJLVN NRORJLVN
*DPPHOGDJV 0RGHUQH 8WHQKXVG\U HQJ HQJ HQJ
9HNVWVNLIWH +YHWH +YHWHPIY +YHWHPIY +YHWHPIY +YHWHPIY %\JJP JM +DYUH +DYUHPIY +DYUHHUWHU %\JJPJM %\JJPJM nUVHQJ
%\JJ %\JJPIY %\JJPJM nUVHQJ nUVHQJ nUVHQJ
3RWHW 3RWHW .O¡YHUHQJ nUVHQJ nUVHQJ nUVHQJ
)RVIRUEDODQVHNJ3GDD
3LPLQHUDOJM¡GVHO
3LKXVG\UJM¡GVHO
3LVnYDUHU
6XP3LQQ
+¡VWHW3
2YHUÁDWHDYUHQQLQJ
*U¡IWHDYUHQQLQJ
6XP3XW
(QNHO3EDODQVH
3LQQPLQXV3XW
.DOLXPEDODQVHNJ.GDD
.LPLQHUDOJM¡GVHO
.LKXVG\UJM¡GVHO
.LVnYDUHU
6XP.LQQ
+¡VWHW.
2YHUÁDWHDYUHQQLQJ
*U¡IWHDYUHQQLQJ
6XP.XW
(QNHO.EDODQVH
.LQQPLQXV.XW
7DEHOO)RVIRURJNDOLXPEDODQVHUIRUSHULRGHQPDLDSULOLG\UNLQJVV\VWHPIRUV¡NHWSn$SHOVYROO
7DOOIUDHULNNHUHJQHWPHGLJMHQQRPVQLWWHWIRUGHWWHV\VWHPHWSJDDYOLQJVVNDGHIY IDQJYHNVWJM JMHQOHJJ7LOI¡UWPHGPLQHUDORJKXV G\UJM¡GVHOPLQXVGHWVRPHUIMHUQHWPHGDYOLQJDLQNOKDOPGHUGHWEOHIMHUQHW6LGHQDOOHKRYHGVWU¡PPHUHULQNOXGHUWKHUHUGLIIHUDQVHQHWXWWU\NN IRUHQGULQJLMRUGDVQ ULQJVODJHU.DOLXPEOHLNNHPnOWLJU¡IWHRJRYHUÁDWHDYUHQQLQJGHQQHSHULRGHQPHQVDWWOLNPnOLQJHQHIUDSHULRGHQ
-RUG
5¡G/0HWDO%LRIRUVN)2.86
*M¡GVOLQJLRYHUYnNLQJVIHOWHQH-29$
²WDSDYQ ULQJVVWRIIHU
,GHÁHVWHIHOWHQHVHUGHWXWWLOnY UHHQQHGDGJnHQGHWUHQGQnUGHWJMHOGHUJM¡GVOLQJVPHQJGHU PHQLIHOWHQHEHW\GHOLJKXVG\USURGXNVMRQJM¡GVOHVGHWIRUWVDWWP\H
/LQH0HLQHUW5¡G+DQV2ODY(JJHVWDG5LNDUG3HGHUVHQRJ$QQH)DONJDDUG
%LRIRUVN-RUGRJPLOM¡cV OLQHPHLQHUWURG#ELRIRUVNQR
,QQOHGQLQJ
3URJUDPIRU-RUGRJYDQQRYHUYnNLQJLODQGEUXNHW -29$HUHWQDVMRQDOWRYHUYnNLQJVSURJUDPVRPEOH VWDUWHWL3URJUDPPHWDGPLQLVWUHUHVIUD%LRIRUVN -RUG PLOM¡cVRJÀQDQVLHUHVDY6WDWHQVODQGEUXNV IRUYDOWQLQJ-29$RPIDWWHUPnOLQJDYDYUHQQLQJIUD MRUGEUXNVGRPLQHUWHQHGE¡UIHOWVRPUHSUHVHQWHUHU XOLNHSURGXNVMRQHURJGHOHUDYODQGHW,GHÁHVWHQHG E¡UIHOWHQHVRPLQQJnULRYHUYnNLQJHQELVWnUE¡QGHQH PHGRSSO\VQLQJHURPMRUGEUXNVGULIWHQSnVNLIWHQLYn +HUSUHVHQWHUHVUHVXOWDWHUIUDGHXOLNHIHOWHQHPHG IRNXVSnJM¡GVOLQJRJWDSDYQ ULQJVVWRIIHU
)LJXU3ODVVHULQJDY-29$IHOWHQH
,O¡SHWDYGHVLVWHnUHQHKDUGHWY UW¡NWRSSPHUN VRPKHWSnGHXKHOGLJHPLOM¡NRQVHNYHQVHQHVRPI¡OJH DYK¡\IRVIRUDYUHQQLQJWLOXWVDWWHYDQQRJYDVVGUDJ ,VDPPHSHULRGHHULQQVDWVHQNQ\WWHWWLOIRVIRUJM¡GV
OLQJVW\UNHWEHW\GHOLJ6RPHQI¡OJHDYGHWWHHUQn QRUPHQIRUIRVIRUJM¡GVOLQJWLONRUQHQJEHLWHRJ SRWHWUHGXVHUWPHGKHQKROGVYLVRJ RJGHWHUXWDUEHLGHWHQQ\RJQHGMXVWHUWNRUUHNVMRQV NXUYHIRUIRVIRUJM¡GVOLQJLIRUKROGWLOMRUGDV3$/QLYn ZZZELRIRUVNQRJMRGVOLQJVKDQGERN(WWHUGHQ\H JM¡GVOLQJVDQEHIDOLQJHQHWLONRUQRJHQJDQEHIDOHVGHW nJM¡GVOHPHGOLNHP\HIRVIRUVRPGHWIMHUQHVPHG DYOLQJHQHQnU3$/HU'HWHUP\HVRPW\GHUSnDW GHWJM¡GVOHVPHGIRVIRUHQJRGGHORYHUQRUPLÁHUH DYIHOWHQH'HWYHQWHVnVHHQ\WWHUOLJHUHQHGJDQJL IRVIRUJM¡GVOLQJHQGHNRPPHQGHnUHQH
*M¡GVOLQJL-29$IHOWHQH
1 ULQJVVWRIIWLOI¡UVOHUEnGHLIRUPDYPLQHUDORJ KXVG\UJM¡GVHOYDULHUHUEHW\GHOLJPHOORPGHXOLNH IHOWHQHWDEHOO%UXNDYKXVG\UJM¡GVHOXWJM¡UHQEH W\GHOLJDQGHOLJUDVIHOWHQH1DXUVWDG9ROEXRJ7LPH VDPWL.ROVWDGRJ9DVVKDJORQDGHUMRUGEUXNVGULIWHQ HUNDUDNWHULVHUWDYKXVG\UNRPELQHUWPHGnSHQnNHU 5¡GHWDO,NRUQIHOWHQH6NXWHUXGRJ0¡UGUH EHVWnUQ ULQJVVWRIIWLOI¡UVHOHQQHVWHQXWHOXNNHQGHDY PLQHUDOJM¡GVHO
+XVG\UWHWWKHWLIHOWHQHHUEHUHJQHWSnJUXQQODJDY WLOI¡UWPHQJGHKXVG\UJM¡GVHOVSUHGGJM¡GVHORJJM¡G VHOIUDEHLWHG\ULIHOWHWKYHUWHQNHOWnU'HWKDUY UW HQGHOHQGULQJHULKXVG\UWHWWKHWHQLGHVLVWHnUHQH, GHPHUHNVWHQVLYHIHOWHQH1DXUVWDGRJ9ROEXKDUGHW RYHUWLGEOLWWI UUHG\UPHQVGHWL.ROVWDGKDUY UW HQEHW\GHOLJ¡NQLQJLKXVG\UWHWWKHWHQGHVLVWHnUHQH VODNWHJULV'HWKDUGHWRJVnL9DVVKDJORQDRJRJVn KHUHUGHW¡NQLQJLSURGXNVMRQDYVODNWHJULVLWLOOHJJWLO VODNWHN\OOLQJ,7LPHIHOWHWKDUGHWY UWHQQRHPLQGUH
¡NQLQJLKXVG\UWHWWKHWHQPHQKXVG\UWHWWKHWHQHU EHW\GHOLJK¡\HUHHQQLGHÁHVWHDQGUHIHOWHQH
*MHQQRPVQLWWOLJQLWURJHQWLOI¡UVHOLRYHUYnNLQJVSHULR GHQKDUYDULHUWPHOORPRPODJRJ NJ1GDDIRUGHXOLNHIHOWHQHMIWDEHOO,YDU Ɣ
Ɣ Ɣ
Ɣ Ɣ Ɣ Ɣ
Ɣ
Ɣ 7LPH
9ROEX
0¡UGUH +RWUDQ
.ROVWDG 6NXWHUXG
1DXUVWDG
9DVVKDJORQD 6NDV+HLJUH
5¡G/0HWDO%LRIRUVN)2.86
WRWDOQLWURJHQWLOI¡UVHOSHUGHNDUMRUGEUXNVDUHDOVW¡UVW L7LPHLQWHQVLYKXVG\USURGXNVMRQPHGWLOI¡UVOHUSn RPODJNJ1GDD9HGYXUGHULQJDYWLOI¡UWHPHQJ GHUQLWURJHQLIRUPDYKXVG\UJM¡GVHOHUGHWHQNHOWH IRUKROGVRPE¡UWDVLEHWUDNWQLQJ(QGHODYQLWURJH QHWLKXVG\UJM¡GVODHURUJDQLVNEXQGHWRJHUGHUIRU LNNHGLUHNWHSODQWHWLOJMHQJHOLJ
*MHQQRPVQLWWOLJIRVIRUWLOI¡UVHOLRYHUYnNLQJVSHULRGHQ YDULHUWHPHOORPRPODJRJNJ3 GDDLGHXOLNHIHOWHQHMIWDEHOO7RWDOHIRVIRU WLOI¡UVOHULYDUVW¡UVWL9DVVKDJORQD7LPHRJ .ROVWDG,DOOHGLVVHIHOWHQHXWJMRUGHVSUHGQLQJDY KXVG\UJM¡GVHOHQEHW\GHOLJDQGHO7RWDOHWLOI¡UVOHUL 9DVVKDJORQDYDUSnRPODJNJ3GDDPHQVGHWL 7LPHRJ.ROVWDGEOHWLOI¡UWKKYRJNJ3GDD ,7LPHXWJMRUGHIRVIRULKXVG\UJM¡GVHORPODJDY WRWDOHIRVIRUWLOI¡UVOHU7RWDOHWLOI¡UVOHUL9ROEXYDU NJ3GDDLKYRUDYKXVG\UJM¡GVHOXWJMRUGH )RVIRULKXVG\UJM¡GVHOKDUVDPPHSODQWHWLOJMHQJHOLJ KHWVRPIRVIRULPLQHUDOJM¡GVHOVnYHGEHUHJQLQJDY JM¡GVOLQJVEHKRYEUXNHVGHWLQJHQNRUUHNVMRQVIDNWRU IRUIRVIRULIRUPDYKXVG\UJM¡GVHO
,GHIHOWHQHPHGHNVWHQVLYJUDVSURGXNVMRQ1DXUVWDG RJ9ROEXKDUY UWGHWHQQHGDGJnHQGHWUHQGQnU GHWJMHOGHUJM¡GVOLQJVPHQJGHUPHQLGHIHOWHQHGHW HUEHW\GHOLJKXVG\USURGXNVMRQJM¡GVOHVGHWIRUWVDWW P\HRJKXVG\UJM¡GVHOXWJM¡UGHUHQVW¡UUHDQGHOHQQ WLGOLJHUH
7DSDYQ ULQJVVWRIIHUWLOYDVVGUDJ
.RQVHQWUDVMRQHUDYQ ULQJVVWRIIHULMRUGEUXNVEHNNHQH EOLUSnYLUNHWDYGULIWVSUDNVLVLQHGE¡UIHOWHQH6SUH GHWLGVSXQNWRJY UGDWDHUYLNWLJHIDNWRUHUVRPNDQ SnYLUNHRPQ ULQJVVWRIIHQHLJM¡GVODKDYQHULYDVV
GUDJHQHHOOHULNNH'HWHUVWRUYDULDVMRQLDYUHQQLQJ PHOORPQHGE¡UIHOWHQH*MHQQRPVQLWWOLJnUVDYUHQQLQJ YDULHUHUIUDRPODJPPL9ROEXIHOWHWWLORPODJ PPL9DVVKDJORQD)RUDOOHIHOWHQHVNMHUVW¡UVWH DQGHODYWRWDOnUVDYUHQQLQJXWHQRPYHNVWVHVRQJHQ LSHULRGHQRNWREHU²DSULO5HVXOWDWHQHIUDRYHUYn NLQJHQYLVHUDWK¡\DYUHQQLQJI¡UHUJHQHUHOWWLOK¡\H QLWURJHQWDS5¡GHWDO
%ODQWNRUQIHOWHQHKDU.ROVWDGEHNNHQGHK¡\HVWHQLWUR JHQNRQVHQWUDVMRQHQH'HWEOLUVSUHGWIRUKROGVYLVP\H KXVG\UJM¡GVHORPK¡VWHQL.ROVWDGLJMHQQRPVQLWW PHQGHWKDUY UWUHJLVWUHUWRSSWLORJGH K¡\HVWHQLWURJHQNRQVHQWUDVMRQHQHEOLUJHQHUHOWPnOWL QRYHPEHU'HWWHNDQY UHHQnUVDNWLOGHK¡\HQLWUR JHQNRQVHQWUDVMRQHQH'HODYHVWHQLWURJHQNRQVHQWUD VMRQHUEOLUPnOWL1DXUVWDGEHNNHQ0\HQHGE¡URJHQ VWRUDQGHOXWPDUNELGUDUWLOIRUW\QQLQJDYDYUHQQLQJHQ IUDGHWWHIHOWHW
'HK¡\HVWHIRVIRUNRQVHQWUDVMRQHQHPnOHVL0¡UGUH EHNNHQ6NXWHUXGEHNNHQ+RWUDQHOYDRJ9DVVKDJORQD 'HWWHHUIHOWHUPHGnSHQnNHUVRPKDUK¡\HUH HURVMRQVULVLNRRJGHUPHGRIWHK¡\HUHIRVIRUNRQVHQ WUDVMRQHULDYUHQQLQJHQVDPPHQOLNQHWPHGDYUHQQLQJ IUDHQJRJEHLWH,9DVVKDJORQDHUGHWMHYQWRYHUK¡\H 3$/WDOOLMRUGDVDPWLGLJVRPGHWJM¡GVOHVP\HWLO IRVIRU
5HIHUDQVHU
5¡G/03HGHUVHQ5'HHOVWUD-%HFKPDQQ0 (JJHVWDG+2 JDDUG$)(URVMRQRJQ ULQJV VWRIIWDSIUDMRUGEUXNVGRPLQHUWHQHGE¡UIHOWcUVUDSSRUW IRUIUD3URJUDPIRUMRUGRJYDQQRYHUYnNLQJ LODQGEUXNHW-29$%LRIRUVN5DSSRUW8QGHU WU\NNLQJ
7DEHOO*MHQQRPVQLWWOLJQLWURJHQRJIRVIRUJM¡GVOLQJNJGDDIRUKYHUWIHOWIRUGHOWSnPLQHUDOJM¡GVHOKXVG\UJM¡GVHOIUDODJHURJIUDG\USnEHLWH IRUKHOHRYHUYnNLQJVSHULRGHQFD
1LWURJHQNJGDD )RVIRUNJGDD
0LQHUDO
JM¡GVHO +XVG\UJM
IUDODJHU +XVG\UJM
IUDEHLWH 7RWDOW 0LQHUDO
JM¡GVHO +XVG\UJM
IUDODJHU +XVG\UJM
IUDEHLWH 7RWDOW
6NXWHUXG
0¡UGUH
.ROVWDG
1DXUVWDG
9ROEX
7LPH
9DVVKDJORQD
-RUG
.Y UQ¡6+ 0%HFKPDQQ%LRIRUVN)2.86
7UDQVSRUWDYQ ULQJVVWRIIHUJMHQQRPMRUGD
'UHQHULQJDYMRUGEUXNVDUHDOHUI¡UHUWLODWMRUGRJQ ULQJVVWRIIHUWDSHVJMHQQRPMRUGD0nOLQJHU DYRYHUÁDWHRJJU¡IWHDYUHQQLQJLWLVPnIHOWHURJUXWHIHOWHUSnVWODQGHWRJL7U¡QGHODJYLVHUDW DYQLWURJHQDYIRVIRURJDYMRUGWDSHWVNMHUJMHQQRPJU¡IWHQH
6LJUXQ+.Y UQ¡RJ0DULDQQH%HFKPDQQ
%LRIRUVN-RUGRJPLOM¡cV VLJUXQNYDHUQR#ELRIRUVNQR
,QWURGXNVMRQ
.XQQVNDSRPKYRUGDQYDQQSDUWLNOHU66IRVIRU3 RJQLWURJHQ1IRUGHOHUVHJSnJU¡IWHRJRYHUÁDWHDY UHQQLQJLQRUVNHMRUGEUXNVDUHDOHUHUQ¡GYHQGLJIRUn NXQQHVLQRHRPHIIHNWHUDYWLOWDNPRWODQGEUXNVIRUX UHQVLQJ'HYLNWLJVWHNLOGHQHWLOLQIRUPDVMRQRPGHWWH HUOHQJUHPnOHVHULHULXOLNHRPUnGHUJMHQQRPI¡UWDY
%LRIRUVNRJ8QLYHUVLWHWHWIRU0LOM¡RJ%LRYLWHQVNDSIUD WDOOHWIUDPWLOLGDJ'HPHVWRPIDWWHQGHGDWD HQHNRPPHUIUDWLVPnQHGE¡UIHOWHURJUXWHIRUV¡NGHU PnOLQJHUDY663RJ1LDYUHQQLQJKDUEOLWWIRUHWDWWL EnGHJU¡IWHRJRYHUÁDWHYDQQRYHUHQOHQJUHWLGVSHUL RGH'HWWHGDWDPDWHULDOHWHUQnVDPPHQVWLOWLHQUDS SRUW.Y UQ¡RJ%HFKPDQQRJIRUPnOHWPHG GHWWHKDUY UWn¡NHIRUVWnHOVHQDYWUDQVSRUWYHLHUIRU MRUGRJQ ULQJVVWRIIHURJNYDQWLÀVHUHIRUGHOLQJHQ PHOORPJU¡IWHRJRYHUÁDWHYDQQ9LSUHVHQWHUHUKHU HQRSSVXPPHULQJDYKRYHGUHVXOWDWHUIUDGHQQHUDS SRUWHQ
0DWHULDOHURJPHWRGHU
'HWLIHOWHQHOLJJHUSnPDULQOHLUHL7U¡QGHODJ.YLWKD PDU6NMHWOHLQRJSnVWODQGHW9DQGVHPE/RGGLQJ +ROW$VNLP6\YHUXG(QHUVWXMRUGHWRJSnPRUHQH OHWWOHLUHSnLQGUHVWODQGHW%\H$SHOVYROO)LUHDY IHOWHQHHUSODQHUW/RGGLQJ+ROW$VNLPRJGHOYLV 9DQGVHPE)HOWHQHYDULHUHULVW¡UUHOVHIUD KDWLOKD'HWHUYDULHUHQGHWRSRJUDÀVNHIRUKROG KHOQLQJVJUDGKHOQLQJVOHQJGHP RJJU¡IWHLQWHQVLWHWHUG\EGHPDYVWDQG P,DOOHIHOWHQHG\UNHVKRYHGVDNHOLJNRUQ PHGLQQVODJDYHQJI{UYHNVWHUSRWHWRJIDQJYHNVW QRHQVWHGHU%nGHK¡VWSO¡\LQJRJMRUGDUEHLGLQJHU UHSUHVHQWHUWRJLQRHQIHOWHUKDUGHWY UWWLOI¡UW KXVG\UJM¡GVHO'DWDHQHVRPSUHVHQWHUHVHULQQKHQWHW IUD-29$GDWDEDVHQYHG%LRIRUVNRJIUDUDSSRUWHURJ YLWHQVNDSHOLJHDUWLNOHU9LOHJJHUKHUPHVWYHNWSnn SUHVHQWHUHJMHQQRPVQLWWVYHUGLHUIRUDYUHQQLQJRJWDS IRUGHWRWDOHPnOHSHULRGHQHPHQYDULDVMRQPHOORP
nUVHVRQJYDULDVMRQRJHIIHNWHUDYMRUGDUEHLGLQJYHNVW RJJM¡GVOLQJKDURJVnY UWVWXGHUW
5HVXOWDWHURJGLVNXVMRQ
1HGE¡UYDULHUWHPHOORPRJPPnURJDYUHQ QLQJPHOORPRJPPnUPHGPLQVWQHGE¡U RJDYUHQQLQJLLQQODQGVIHOWHQH%\HRJ$SHOVYROOYHG 0M¡VDRJPHVWLIHOWHQH6NMHWOHLQRJ.YLWKDPDUL 7U¡QGHODJ0nOWDYUHQQLQJXWJMRUGH²DYQHG E¡UHQDYDYUHQQLQJHQJLNNJMHQQRPJU¡IWHQH ÀJXUD$SHOVYROORJ%\HKDGGHVW¡UVWDYUHQQLQJ JMHQQRPJU¡IWHQHFDSnJUXQQDYVPnQHG E¡UVPHQJGHURJOHWWPROGKROGLJMRUGPHGUHODWLYW JRGLQÀOWUDVMRQVHYQH'HWYDUPLQVWDQGHOJU¡IWHDY UHQQLQJIUDGHSODQHUWHIHOWHQH/RGGLQJ +ROWRJ$VNLPHWWHUVRPMRUGVWUXNWXUHQHUGnUOLJPHG ODYLQÀOWUDVMRQVNDSDVLWHW8SODQHUWHIHOWHUSnPDULQH DYVHWQLQJHUL7U¡QGHODJRJSnVWODQGHWKDGGH JU¡IWHDYUHQQLQJ9DULDVMRQHQPHOORPGLVVHIHOWHQH YDUUHVXOWDWDYIRUVNMHOOHULIHNVKHOQLQJMRUGVPRQQ NOLPDRJGULIW
$OOHIHOWHQHKDGGHMRUGWDSEnGHSnRYHUÁDWHQRJ JMHQQRPJU¡IWHQHÀJXUE'HWJMHQQRPVQLWWOLJH MRUGWDSHWYDULHUWHPHOORPNJ66KDnU$SHOVYROO RJNJKDnU$VNLP'HSODQHUWHIHOWHQHKDGGH GHK¡\HVWHMRUGWDSHQH!NJ66KDnUKYRUDY JLNNJMHQQRPJU¡IWHQH3nGHLNNHSODQHUWH IHOWHQHSnPDULQHDYVHWQLQJHUSnVWODQGHWNRP DYMRUGWDSHWJMHQQRPJU¡IWHQHPHQVRYHU DYMRUGWDSHWIUDIHOWHQHL7U¡QGHODJVNMHGGHJMHQQRP JU¡IWHQH%HW\GHOLJMRUGWDSJMHQQRPJU¡IWHQHLEnGH SODQHUWHRJXSODQHUWHIHOWHUNDQWLOVNULYHVWUDQVSRUW LPDNURSRUHUV UOLJELRSRUHUL7U¡QGHODJVIHOWHQHRJ VSUHNNHULGHWSODQHUWH/RGGLQJIHOWHW0RUHQHIHOWHQH UXQGW0M¡VD$SHOVYROORJ%\HKDGGHVWRUWVHWWPHJHW VPnMRUGWDSEnGHJMHQQRPJU¡IWHURJYLDRYHUÁD WHDYUHQQLQJ'HQODQJHWLGVVHULHQSn%\HLQNOXGHUWH LPLGOHUWLGÁHUHHNVWUHPHHSLVRGHUPHGK¡\HSDUWLN
.Y UQ¡6+ 0%HFKPDQQ%LRIRUVN)2.86
NHONRQVHQWUDVMRQHULRYHUÁDWHDYUHQQLQJ
)RVIRUWDSHQHYDULHUWHPHOORPJ73KDnU ÀJXUF)RUVNMHOOHQL3WDSPHOORPIHOWHQHDY VSHLOWHGHOYLVIRUVNMHOOHQLMRUGWDSGHWYDUGHWPLQVW 3WDSIUDPRUHQHMRUGYHG0M¡VDJ73KD nURJVW¡UVW3WDSIUDSODQHUWOHLUMRUGL$VNLPNJ 73KDnU$QGHOHQ3WDSJMHQQRPJU¡IWHQHYLVWH PHJHWVWRUVSUHGQLQJIRUGHXOLNHIHOWHQHRJXWJMRUGH DYGHWRWDOH3WDS'HWYDUWRJUXSSHUDYIHOW PHGK¡\H3WDS'HSODQHUWHIHOWHQHPHGK¡\HVW 3WDSYLDRYHUÁDWHDYUHQQLQJRJXSODQHUWH IHOWHUPHGKXVG\UJM¡GVHO(QHUVWXMRUGHW.YLWKDPDU RJ6NMHWOHLQPHGK¡\HVW3WDSJMHQQRPJU¡IWHQH )HOWHQHPHGODYH3WDSIRUGHOWHVHJRJVn SnWRJUXSSHU3n6\YHUXGLcVRJPRUHQHIHOWHQHYHG 0M¡VDNRPDY3WDSHQHYLDJU¡IWHQHPHQVSn GHOYLVSODQHUWH9DQGVHPENRPYLDJU¡IWHQH3n 9DQGVHPEYDUGHWEUXNWKXVG\UJM¡GVHO
1LWURJHQWDSHQHYDULHUWHPHOORPRJNJ71 KDnUPHGK¡\HVWWDSSnXSODQHUWHIHOWHULcVRJ PRUHQHIHOWHQHRJODYHVWWDSSnGHXSODQHUWHIHOWHQH L7U¡QGHODJÀJXUG'HWYDUPLQGUHYDULDVMRQPHO ORPIHOWHQHLKYRUGDQ1WDSIRUGHOWHVHJSnJU¡IWH RJRYHUÁDWHYDQQHQQGHWYDUIRUMRUGRJ3WDS 3nDOOHGHXSODQHUWHIHOWHQHRJGHWGHOYLVSODQHUWH 9DQGVHPEIHOWHWVNMHGGHRYHUDY1WDSHWJMHQ
QRPJU¡IWHQH3nGHSODQHUWHIHOWHQHYDUDQGHOHQWLO JU¡IWHQHPLQGUHIRUHQVW¡UUHGHODYYDQQHW UDQWDYSnRYHUÁDWDXWHQnY UHLNRQWDNWPHGMRUG PDWULNVGHUPRELOW1ÀQV
(IIHNWHUDYGULIWYDUYDQVNHOLJnNYDQWLÀVHUHYKDGHW VWXGHUWHGDWDPDWHULDOHWPHGXQQWDNDYIRUVNMHOOHU YHGMRUGDUEHLGLQJK¡VWRJYnU6DPPHQOLNQHWPHG K¡VWSO¡\LQJI¡UWHMRUGDUEHLGLQJRPYnUHQWLO¡NW RYHUÁDWHDYUHQQLQJSnXSODQHUWHIHOWHUJUXQQHWODYHUH LQÀOWUDVMRQVNDSDVLWHWK¡VWRJYLQWHURJUHGXVHUW RYHUÁDWHDYUHQQLQJSnSODQHUWHIHOWHUSJDEHGUH EHVN\WWHOVHPRWQHGEU\WLQJDYVWUXNWXUHQODYHUH MRUGWDSRJSDUWLNNHONRQVHQWUDVMRQHULDOOHIHOWHUL EnGHJU¡IWHRJRYHUÁDWHYDQQPHGVW¡UVWUHGXNVMRQ SnSODQHUWMRUGVWRUWVHWWODYHUH3NRQVHQWUDMRQHU RJ²WDSSJDODYHUHMRUGWDSVWRUWVHWWODYHUH 1NRQVHQWUDVMRQHURJ²WDSPXOLJHQVSJDPLQGUH PLQHUDOLVHULQJRPK¡VWHQRJUHODWLYHIIHNWYDU VRPUHJHOK¡\HUHPKWWDSYLDRYHUÁDWHDYUHQQLQJHQQ PKWWDSYLDJU¡IWHQH
5HIHUDQVHU
.Y UQ¡6 %HFKPDQQ07UDQVSRUWDYMRUGRJQ ULQJVVWRIIHULRYHUÁDWHRJJU¡IWHYDQQ6DPPHQVWLOOLQJDY UHVXOWDWHUIUDUXWHIHOWHURJVPnIHOWHUL1RUJH%LRIRUVN 5DSSRUW
)LJXU$YUHQQLQJMRUG3RJ1WDSYLDJU¡IWHRJRYHUÁDWHDYUHQQLQJLWLIHOWHUSnVWODQGHWRJL7U¡QGHODJ%\H %\H$SH $SHOVYROO9DQ 9DQGVHPE/RG /RGGLQJGHOIHOW+RO +ROW$VN $VNLP6\Y 6\YHUXG(QH (QHUVWXMRUGHW.YL .YLWKDPDU6NM 6NMHWOHLQ
-RUG
'HHOVWUD-HWDO%LRIRUVN)2.86
&DQZHVLPXODWHUXQRIIIURPDJULFXOWXUH GRPLQDWHGZDWHUVKHGV"&RPSDULVRQRIWKH 'UDLQ0RG6:$7+%9&283DQG,1&$PRGHOV DSSOLHGIRUWKH6NXWHUXGFDWFKPHQW
$JRRGXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHK\GURORJ\DQGLWVLPSOHPHQWDWLRQLQPRGHOVLVDSUHUHTXLVLWHWR IDFLOLWDWHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJUHODWLYHWRWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIZDWHUPDQDJHPHQW²DQGIDUPLQJ SUDFWLFHV7KLVSDSHUSUHVHQWVWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIK\GURORJLFDOPRGHOVLQWKH 6NXWHUXGFDWFKPHQW
-RKDQQHV'HHOVWUD&VLOOD)DUNDV$OH[DQGHU(QJHEUHWVHQ6LJUXQ+.Y UQ¡6WHLQ%HOGULQJDQG$OLFMD2OV]HZVND
%LRIRUVN8QLYHUVLW\RI2VOR19(8QLYHUVLW\RI*GDQVN MRKDQQHVGHHOVWUD#ELRIRUVNQR
,QWURGXFWLRQ
7KH6NXWHUXGFDWFKPHQWORFDWHGLQVRXWKHDVW HUQ1RUZD\ZDVFKRVHQDVWKHSLORWDUHDIRUPRGHO FRPSDULVRQVWXGLHV6NXWHUXGFDWFKPHQWLVVLQFH SDUWRI-29$²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ÀWWRWKHPHDVXUHGUXQRIIDWWKHFDWFKPHQWRXWOHW 7ZRRIWKHPRGHOV²'UDLQPRG6NDJJVDQG&RXS -DQVVRQ .DUOEHUJDUHSURÀOHEDVHGZKLOH WKH+%96 OWKXQ,1&$%XWWHUÀHOGHWDO DQG6:$7$UQROGHWDO²DUHFDWFKPHQW PRGHOV7KHPRGHOVDOVRGLIIHULQFRPSOH[LW\DQGLQ WKHUHGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQRIGLIIHUHQWÁRZSURFHVVHVOLNH VXUIDFHVXEVXUIDFHDQGJURXQGZDWHUUXQRIIQRW7KH FRPSDULVRQRIWKHPDLQSURFHVVHVLQFRUSRUDWHGLQWKH ÀYHPRGHOVLVJLYHQLQ7DEOH
0RGHOVKDUPRQLVDWLRQDQG SDUDPHWHULVDWLRQ
7KHPRGHOVZHUHKDUPRQLVHGIRUWKH6NXWHUXG
FDWFKPHQWE\LXVLQJWKHVDPHGULYLQJPHWHRURORJL FDOYDULDEOHVLLGHÀQLQJFRPPRQLQLWLDODQGORZHU ERXQGDU\FRQGLWLRQVDQGLLLV\QFKURQLVLQJWKHLQSXW GDWDDQGSDUDPHWHUVXVLQJWKHLQIRUPDWLRQDYDLODEOH IRUWKH6NXWHUXGFDWFKPHQW7KHPRGHORXWSXWZDV FRPSDUHGZLWKWKHPHDVXUHGUXQRIIDWWKHFDWFK PHQWRXWOHW1DVK6XWFOLIIHVWDWLVWLFV16ZDVXVHG IRUPRGHOHYDOXDWLRQ,QFDVHRIGLVWULEXWHGPRGHOV RQHVLPXODWLRQFRQVLVWHGRIRQHPRGHOUXQZKLOHWKH SURÀOHEDVHGPRGHOVZHUHUXQVHSDUDWHO\IRUDJULFXO WXUDODQGIRUHVWDUHDV,QWKHODWWHUFDVHWKHWRWDO UXQRIIZDVREWDLQHGE\FDOFXODWLQJWKHDUHDZHLJKWHG DYHUDJHUXQRIIIURP'UDLQPRGDQG&RXS7KHPRGHOV ZHUHUXQIRUWKHSHULRGEHWZHHQ-DQXDU\DQG 'HFHPEHU7KH\HDUZDVFRQVLGHUHG DVD´ZDUPLQJXSµSHULRGWRHOLPLQDWHLQLWLDOELDV 7KHFDOLEUDWLRQDQGYDOLGDWLRQSHULRGVZHUHGHÀQHG IURP-DQXDU\WR'HFHPEHUDQGIURP -DQXDU\WR'HFHPEHUUHVSHFWLYHO\
7KHVLPXODWLRQH[HUFLVHVWDUWHGZLWKPRGHOYDOLGD WLRQVZKHQDOOWKHLQSXWGDWDDQGPRGHOSDUDPHWHUV ZHUHV\QFKURQLVHGLQWKHÀYHPRGHOV)XUWKHUPRUH WKHPRGHOVZHUHFDOLEUDWHGLQGLYLGXDOO\E\WXQLQJ RQPRGHOSDUDPHWHUVWRPLQLPLVHWKHGLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQWKHPHDVXUHGDQGVLPXODWHGUXQRII
5HVXOWV
)LJXUHSUHVHQWV16VWDWLVWLFVEDVHGRQWKHVLPXOD WLRQVIRUWKHSHULRGIURPFRPSDULQJWKH PHDVXUHGDQGVLPXODWHGUXQRIIGDWDRQDGDLO\ZHHN O\PRQWKO\DQG\HDUO\EDVH0RGHOSHUIRUPDQFHVLQ JHQHUDOLPSURYHGZKHQLQWHJUDWLQJWKHUHVXOWVRYHU ORQJHUWLPHSHULRGV7KLVLQGLFDWHVWKDWLQFDVHWKH
'HHOVWUD-HWDO%LRIRUVN)2.86
GDLO\UXQRIIG\QDPLFVZDVQRWVLPXODWHGVDWLVIDFWR ULO\WKHWRWDODPRXQWRIZDWHUOHDYLQJWKHFDWFKPHQW ZLWKLQDZHHNRUPRQWKO\SHULRGZDVHVWLPDWHGTXLWH ZHOO,QVRPHFDVHVWKH\HDUO\VWDWLVWLFVZHUHZRUVH FRPSDUHGWRWKHPRQWKO\DQGZHHNO\SHULRGVPRVW SUREDEO\EHFDXVHWKHVHWLPHVHULHVZHUHWRRVKRUW
'LVFXVVLRQDQGFRQFOXVLRQV
,QRYHUDOOJRRGDJUHHPHQWEHWZHHQWKHPHDVXUHG DQGVLPXODWHGYDOXHVZDVREWDLQHGIRUWKHGLIIHUHQW PRGHOVZKHQLQWHJUDWLQJWKHUHVXOWVRYHUDZHHNRU ORQJHUSHULRGV+RZHYHUHIIRUWVKDYHWREHPDGHWR REWDLQLPSURYHGUHVXOWVRQDGDLO\EDVLVHVSHFLDOO\
DVPRGHOVDUHSRWHQWLDOO\XVHIXOWRROVLQDVVHVVLQJWKH SRVVLEOHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQK\GURO RJ\QXWULHQWDQGVRLOORVV$SUHUHTXLVLWHIRUWKH IXUWKHULPSURYHPHQWRIK\GURORJLFDOPRGHOOLQJIRU PL[HGFDWFKPHQWVDJULFXOWXUDODQGIRUHVWHGLVWKH DYDLODELOLW\RIGDWDRQVRLOVLQDGGLWLRQWRLPSRUWDQW HOHPHQWVRIWKHZDWHUEDODQFHHYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQ UXQRIIIRUIRUHVWHGDUHDV+\GURORJLFDOSDWKZD\VDUH LPSRUWDQWLQWKHWUDQVSRUWRIVRLODQGQXWULHQWVDQG VRPHRIWKHDSSOLHGPRGHOVGRVLPXODWHERWKVXUIDFH DQGVXEVXUIDFHUXQRII+RZHYHULPSURYHGLQIRUPDWLRQ RQWKHUHODWLYHFRQWULEXWLRQRIWKHGLIIHUHQWUXQRII FRPSRQHQWVDWFDWFKPHQWVFDOHLVRIXWPRVWLPSRU WDQFHWREHDEOHWRFDOLEUDWHWKHVHPRGHOV
5HIHUHQFHV
$UQROG-*:LOOLDPV-56ULQLYDVDQ51HLWVFK-*
.LQLU\-56RLODQG:DWHU$VVHVVPHQW7RRO8VHU·V 0DQXDOKWWSVZDWPRGHOWDPXHGX
%XWWHUÀHOG':DGH$- :KLWHKHDG3*,1&$B1 Y8VHU*XLGH8QLYHUVLW\RI5HDGLQJ
'HHOVWUD-HWDO$JHQHUDOGHVFULSWLRQRIWKH6NXWH UXGFDWFKPHQW-RUGIRUVN5HS
-DQVVRQ3( .DUOEHUJ/&RXS0DQXDOKWWS ZZZOZUNWKVHYDUDGDWRUSURJUDP&RXS0RGHOLQ GH[KWP
6NDJJV5:'5$,102'8VHUCV0DQXDO1RUWK&D UROLQD6WDWH8QLYHUVLW\5DOHLJKKWWSZZZEDHQFVX HGXVRLOBZDWHUGUDLQPRG
6 OWKXQ157KH´1RUGLFµ+%9PRGHO19(SXEOLFD WLRQV1R
!## !% !% !% !% !%
&'""&# $# $# $# $# $#
%#!"!# $# $# $# !#' $#
$!!$ $# $# $# $# !#'
#!# $# $# !#' !#' !#'
'""!!& $# !#' $#
#&#!$# $# $# !#' !#' $#
&#!!"#!$# $# $# $# !
#!&!(" $# $# $# #"#$!#
#!&#"#! $# $# $#
$"$!!& $# $# !#' !#'
!##"#( $# $# $# $# $#
#!& !#! !#!
!'!"#$"#( $# $# $# !#'
!# $! $#
"& $# $# $#
7DEOH&RPSDULVRQRIWKHÀYHGLIIHUHQWPRGHOVZLWKUHVSHFWWRK\GURORJLFDOSURFHVVHV
)LJXUH1DVK6XWFOLIIHVWDWLVWLFVIRUYDULRXVWLPHSHULRGVDQG GLIIHUHQWPRGHOV
-RUG
6N¡LHQ6%LRIRUVN)2.86
5HGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJ²RPIDQJIRUGHOHU RJXOHPSHU
0HUHQQDYNRUQDUHDOHWGULYHVQnPHGUHGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJ,PDQJHYDQQIRUHNRPVWHUPn GHWWH¡NHV\WWHUOLJHUHIRUDWYLVNDOQnYDQQNYDOLWHWVPnOHQH5HGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJHUIRUGHODNWLJ PHGKHQV\QWLOMRUGHURVMRQHQHUJLIRUEUXNRJWDSDYNOLPDJDVVHUNWIRUHNRPVWDYP\NRWRNVLQHUL NRUQHUQnGHQPHVWDOYRUOLJHXOHPSHQ
6YHLQ6N¡LHQ
%LRIRUVN-RUGRJPLOM¡cV 6YHLQVNRLHQ#ELRIRUVNQR
,QQOHGQLQJ
8WWU\NNHWUHGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJHUPHVWUHOHYDQWLGH VWRUHNRUQG\UNLQJVRPUnGHQH(QNHOWVDJWLQQHE UHU GHWMRUGDUEHLGLQJVPHWRGHUXWHQK¡VWSO¡\LQJ9HGRP OHJJLQJHQWLOHWQ UPHVWHQVLGLJNRUQG\UNLQJVV\VWHP EOHGHWYDQOLJnK¡VWSO¡\HDOWNRUQDUHDO,HWWHUWLGEOH PDQRSSPHUNVRPSnDWODQGEUXNVSROLWLNNHQKDGGH EHW\GQLQJIRUMRUGHURVMRQ/XQGHNYDPHWDO -RUGDUEHLGLQJHUDUEHLGVNUHYHQGHRJHQHUJLNUHYHQGH ODQGEUXNVIRUVNHUHEOHWLGOLJRSSWDWWDYnPLQLPHUH MRUGDUEHLGLQJD9nUWUDGLVMRQHUVWHUNWSnYLUNHWDY DPHULNDQVNIRUVNQLQJKYRUGHWHWWHUYHUGHQVNULJ YDUVWHUNWIRNXVSnMRUGHURVMRQ'HQXQLYHUVHOOH MRUGWDSVOLNQLQJHQ86/(EOHXWYLNOHWL86$RJKDUEOLWW EUXNWKHULODQGHWWLOnDQVOnHURVMRQVIDUHYHGXOLN MRUGDUEHLGLQJ(URVMRQVULVLNRNDUWEUXNHVDYODQGEUXNV IRUYDOWQLQJHQIRUnPnOUHWWHRJGLIIHUHQVLHUHWLOVNXGG WLOXOLNHIRUPHUIRUUHGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJ
)RNXVSnHURVMRQRJDYUHQQLQJWLOYDVVGUDJKDU¡NW HWWHULQQI¡ULQJHQDYYDQQGLUHNWLYHW%UXNHQDY PLOM¡WLOVNXGGHQHL5HJLRQDOWPLOM¡SURJUDPPnOUHW WHVIRUnRSSI\OOHPnOVHWWLQJHQHLYDQQGLUHNWLYHW, QRHQYDQQRPUnGHUHUGHWRJVnLQQI¡UWIRUVNULIWHUPHG EHJUHQVLQJHUIRUMRUGDUEHLGLQJD9LVHUDOWVnIRUI¡UVWH JDQJDWGHWEUXNHVMXULGLVNHYLUNHPLGOHUIRUnUHJX OHUHMRUGDUEHLGLQJVPHWRGHU,IRUYDOWQLQJVSODQHURJ WLOWDNVSURJUDPVRPHUXWDUEHLGHWHUUHGXVHUWMRUG DUEHLGLQJYLNWLJWLOWDNLYDQQRPUnGHQHSnVWODQGHW ZZZYDQQSRUWDOHQQR
-RUGDUEHLGLQJKDURJVnEHW\GQLQJIRUODQGEUXNHWV XWVOLSSDYNOLPDJDVVHU5HGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJI¡UHU WLOPLQGUHQHGEU\WQLQJDYRUJDQLVNPDWHULDOHRJ GHUPHGWLOPLQGUHWDSDY&2IUDMRUGD/DQGEUXNVRJ PDWGHSDUWHPHQWHWYXUGHUHU\WWHUOLJHUHMXULGLVNHYLU
NHPLGOHUIRUnVW\UHMRUGDUEHLGLQJVSUDNVLVHQLHQPHU NOLPDYHQQOLJUHWQLQJ6WPHOG
1/+RJ%LRIRUVNKDUXWI¡UWIHOWIRUV¡NPHGPnOLQJDY HURVMRQIUDXOLNHMRUGDUEHLGLQJVV\VWHPHU6LGHQIRUV¡
NHQHVWDUWHWSnWDOOHWKDUGHWY UWHQEHW\GHOLJ XWYLNOLQJLPHWRGHURJUHGVNDSVW\SHULGHWSUDNWLVNH ODQGEUXNHW'HWHUGHUIRUIRUWVDWWEHKRYIRUPnOLQJHU DYHURVMRQRJDYUHQQLQJLIRUKROGWLOGDJHQVDNWXHOOH UHGVNDSHURJPHWRGHU
2PIDQJ
'HWHUHQYLVVLQWHUHVVHIRUUHGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJ LJUDVG\UNLQJPHQGHWHUVRPQHYQWPHVWUHOHYDQW IRUNRUQGLVWULNWHQH6WDWLVWLNNHQIRUMRUGDUEHLGLQJHU EDVHUWSnV¡NQDGHULUHJLRQDOWPLOM¡SURJUDPRJGHWWH YDULHUHUPHOORPI\ONHQH'HVW¡UVWHNRUQI\ONHQHKDU RUGQLQJHUPHGWLOVNXGGWLOUHGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJ (QVWRUDQGHODYE¡QGHQHV¡NHUSnGLVVHVOLNDWVWDWLV WLNNHQGHUIRUEOLUWLOQ UPHWULNWLJ
$UHDOPHGNRUQRJROMHYHNVWHUWLOPRGQLQJXWJMRUGH LRPODJPLOOGHNDU7DOOIUDWLOVNXGGRUG QLQJHQYLVHUDWDUHDOVRPOLJJHULVWXEERYHUYLQWHUHQ KDU¡NWIUDDYNRUQDUHDOHWLWLOL 6WDWLVWLVNVHQWUDOE\Un,VnUEDUHYDVVGUDJVRP HUPHGLI¡UVWHSODQSHULRGHL9DQQGLUHNWLYHWHUGHW LQQI¡UWIRUVNULIWVRPNUHYHUDWPLQVWDYIRUHWD NHWVDUHDOVNDORYHUYLQWUHXWHQMRUGDUEHLGLQJ'HWHU GHUPHGIRUYHQWHWDWDQGHOHQUHGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJ YLO¡NH
7UDGLVMRQHOOMRUGDUEHLGLQJPHGK¡VWSO¡\LQJKDUPHG DQGUHRUGEOLWWPLQGUHYDQOLJLNRUQRPUnGHQH'HWHU LPLGOHUWLGHQVWRUDQGHOK¡VWNRUQLGHVWRUHNRUQI\O NHQHVDPOHWFDLPHQPHGVWRUYDULDVMRQ IUDnUWLOnU3O¡\LQJHUIRUWVDWWYDQOLJI¡UVnLQJDY K¡VWNRUQ
6N¡LHQ6%LRIRUVN)2.86
'HWHUHQUHNNHWLOWDNVRPKDUWLOKHQVLNWnEHJUHQVH IRUXUHQVLQJIUDMRUGEUXNHWRJVSHVLHOWHURVMRQRJ DYUHQQLQJ-RUGDUEHLGLQJPnYXUGHUHVLVDPPHQKHQJ PHGDQGUHWLOWDNVRPEXIIHUVRQHUIDQJYHNVWHU K\GURWHNQLVNHWLOWDNPP,5HJLRQDOWPLOM¡SURJUDP 503JLVWLOVNXGGWLO
$UHDOHUVRPLNNHMRUGDUEHLGHVRPK¡VWHQ*MHOGHU NRUQROMHYHNVWHUHUWHU'HWVNDOLNNHMRUGDUEHLGHV I¡UPDUVQHVWHnU
'LUHNWHVnGGK¡VWNRUQ
/HWWK¡VWKDUYLQJPHGHOOHUXWHQVnLQJDYK¡VWNRUQ
)DQJYHNVWHU
*UDVGHNWHYDQQYHJHURJEXIIHUVRQHUPRWYDVVGUDJ
)RUGHOHU
'HWHURPIDWWHQGHGRNXPHQWDVMRQVRPYLVHUDWUHGX VHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJHUGHWPHVWHHIIHNWLYHWLOWDNHWPRW MRUGHURVMRQ/XQGHNYDP
$YUHQQLQJDYIRVIRUHUQ UWNQ\WWHWWLOMRUGWDSHW'HW HUGHUPHGJHQHUHOWVOLNDWUHGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJRJVn I¡UHUWLOUHGXVHUWWDSDYIRVIRU8WHQSO¡\LQJGDQQHV GHWHWWRSSVMLNWPHGDQULNQLQJDYRUJDQLVNPDWHULDOH RJIRVIRUIUDJM¡GVHO,HQGHOIRUV¡NHUGHWYLVWDW GHWWHI¡UHUWLOHQ¡NQLQJLDYUHQQLQJDYO¡VWIRVIRU 8OqQHWDO
9LUNQLQJDYDYUHQQLQJDYQLWUDWHULNNHVnNODU-RUG DUEHLGLQJI¡UHUWLO¡NWPLQHUDOLVHULQJRJGHUPHGWLO VW¡UUHULVLNRIRUWDSDYQLWURJHQ9HGGnUOLJHWDEOHULQJ DYSODQWHGHNNHYHGUHGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJHUGHW PnOW¡NWDYUHQQLQJDYQLWURJHQHWWHUUHGXVHUWMRUGDU EHLGLQJ
/DQJYDULJHIRUV¡NKDUYLVWDWDYOLQJVQLYnHWIRUYnUNRUQ NDQRSSUHWWKROGHVYHGUHGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJ'HWWH IRUXWVHWWHUDWXJUDVHWEHNMHPSHVPHGVSU¡\WLQJ5LOH\
(QVWRUDQGHODYDUEHLGVNRVWQDGHQHRJHQHUJLIRUEUX NHWHUNQ\WWHWWLOSO¡\LQJD5HGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJJLU EHW\GHOLJODYHUHDUEHLGVNRVWQDGHURJHQHUJLIRUEUXN 3UDNWLVNHUIDULQJHURJPnOLQJHULODQJYDULJHIRUV¡N YLVHUHQGULQJHULMRUGVWUXNWXUHQYHGUHGXVHUWMRUGDU EHLGLQJ-RUGDInUEODQWDQQHWEHGUHVWUXNWXUVWDELOL WHWPHQK¡\HUHWHWWKHW'HWWHSnYLUNHUOXIWYHNVOLQJ PLQHUDOLVHULQJRJMRUGWHPSHUDWXU9LUNQLQJHQHSnMRUG DYXOLNHMRUGDUEHLGLQJVV\VWHPHUHUUHIHUHUWRYHUVLNWOLJ L%HFKPDQQRJ%¡UUHVHQ
8OHPSHU
,VWRUVNDODIRUV¡NKDUGHWYLVWHVHJDWDYOLQJVQLYnHWYHG UHGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJWLOK¡VWNRUQHUQRHYDULHU HQGH'HWHUHQYLVVDYOLQJVUHGXNVMRQRJHQEHW\GHOLJ UHGXNVMRQYHGGLUHNWHVnLQJ5LOH\HWDO 3ODQWHV\NGRPPHUHULNNHV UOLJPHUXWEUHGWYHG GLUHNWHVnLQJRJUHGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJHQQYHGSO¡\
LQJ'HWHUOLNHYHOJUXQQWLOnY UHRSSPHUNVRPSn VRSSV\NGRPPHUVRPNDQRYHUYLQWUHSnKDOPUHVWHU 5HGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJ¡NHUULVLNRIRURYHUI¡ULQJDY )XVDULXPRJXWYLNOLQJDYP\NRWRNVLQHULNRUQ +RIJDDUGHWDO
3O¡\LQJEHNMHPSHUURWXJUDVHIIHNWLYW9HGUHGXVHUW MRUGDUEHLGLQJKDUPDQLNNHGHQQHPXOLJKHWHQ6SU¡\
WLQJPRWXJUDVHUHQYLNWLJIRUXWVHWQLQJYHGUHGXVHUW MRUGDUEHLGLQJ,SUDNVLVHULNNHXJUDVHWDYJM¡UHQGH SUREOHPYHGNRQYHQVMRQHOOG\UNLQJPHQVHWWHU VHOYVDJWHQEHJUHQVLQJIRUUHGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJYHG
¡NRORJLVNG\UNLQJ
5HGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJJLUNDOGHUHMRUGRJXWVDWWVnWLG YnURJK¡VW'HWWHVDPPHQPHGSUREOHPHUPHGnVn LKDOPUHVWHUHUJUXQQHUWLODWGLUHNWHVnLQJWLOK¡VWNRUQ HUVY UWOLWHSUDNWLVHUW
5HIHUDQVHU
/XQGHNYDP+3ORWVWXGLHVDQGPRGHOLQJRIK\GURORJ\
DQGHURVLRQLQVRXWKHDVW1RUZD\&DWHQD /XQGHNYDP+5RPVWDG( \JDUGHQ/$JUL FXOWXUDOSROLFLHVLQ1RUZD\DQGHIIHFWVRQVRLOHURVLRQ (QYLURQPHQWDO6FLHQFH 3ROLF\
5LOH\+%DNNHJDUG0 /LQGHPDUN32.RVW QDGVHIIHNWLYK¡VWNRUQG\UNLQJ$YOLQJHULVWRUVNDODIRUV¡N RJODQJYDULJHMRUGDUEHLGLQJVIRUV¡N
%LRIRUVN)2.86
5LOH\+5HFHQWUHVXOWVDQGWUHQGVRYHUWLPHZLWK FRQVHUYDWLRQWLOODJHRQPRUDLQLFORDPVRLOLQVRXWKHDVW 1RUZD\$FWD$JULFXOWXUDH6FDQGLQDYLFD6HFWLRQ%²3ODQW DQG6RLO6FLHQFH
%HFKPDQQ0 %¡UUHVHQ7-RUGDUEHLGLQJRPYnUHQ
%LRIRUVN5DSSRUWV
+RIJDDUG,6%URGDO*(OHQ2$DPRGW+8 .OHPV GDO6,QQKROGDYP\NRWRNVLQHULKDYUHRJYnUKYHWH
%LRIRUVN)2.86
6WDWLVWLVNVHQWUDOE\Un-RUGEUXNRJPLOM¡7LOVWDQGRJ XWYLNOLQJ66%5DSSRUWHU
/DQGEUXNVRJPDWGHSDUWHPHQWHW.OLPDXWIRUGULQJHQH² ODQGEUXNHWHQGHODYO¡VQLQJHQ6WPHOGQU
8OqQ%$URQVVRQ+%HFKPDQQ0.URJVWDG7\
JDUGHQ/ 6WHQEHUJ06RLOWLOODJHPHDVXUHVDJDLQVW SKRVSRUXVHURVLRQDQGOHDFKLQJDQGSRWHQWLDOVLGHHIIHFV
²D6FDQGLQDYLDQUHYLHZ,QSUHVV
-RUG
5HIVJDDUG. 0%HFKPDQQ%LRIRUVN)2.86
.RVWQDGVHIIHNWLYLWHWDYWLOWDNLMRUGEUXNHW
.RVWQDGVHIIHNWLYLWHWDYWLOWDNIRUUHGXVHUWIRVIRUDYUHQQLQJHUYXUGHUWLHWSURVMHNWDY%LRIRUVN RJ1,/)7LOWDNRPIDWWHUUHGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJUHGXVHUWIRVIRUJM¡GVOLQJRJIDQJGDPPHU .RVWQDGHQHHUEDVHUWSnIRNXVJUXSSHUVS¡UUHXQGHUV¡NHOVHVDPWUnGJLYQLQJEODQWE¡QGHULNRUQ RPUnGHUSnVWODQGHW
.DUHQ5HIVJDDUGRJ0DULDQQH%HFKPDQQ
1RUVNLQVWLWXWWIRUODQGEUXNV¡NRQRPLVNIRUVNQLQJ%LRIRUVN-RUGRJPLOM¡cV NDUHQUHIVJDDUG#QLOIQR
,QQOHGQLQJ
(8V5DPPHGLUHNWLYIRU9DQQ5'9OHJJHUI¡ULQJHU IRUIRUYDOWQLQJDYYDQQUHVVXUVHQHL1RUJH,QQHQ VNDOGHYDQQRPUnGHQHVRPLQQJnULI¡UVWHSODQSHULRGH KDRSSQnGGJRGNMHPLVNRJ¡NRORJLVNVWDWXV1,/)RJ
%LRIRUVNKDUVHWWSnNRVWQDGVHIIHNWLYLWHWSnIRUHWDNV¡
NRQRPLVNQLYnRJSnUHJLRQDOWQLYnIRUJMHQQRPI¡ULQJ DYXOLNHWLOWDNPRWIRVIRUDYUHQQLQJIUDMRUGEUXNHWIRU NRUQSURGXNVMRQSnVWODQGHW
0HWRGHRJGDWDJUXQQODJ
%HUHJQLQJHUDYNRVWQDGVHIIHNWLYLWHWDYWLOWDNPRW IRVIRUWLOI¡UVOHUWLOYDQQRJYDVVGUDJEDVHUHVSnWR HVWLPDWHUYXUGHULQJEHUHJQLQJDYNRVWQDGHUYHG JMHQQRPI¡ULQJDYWLOWDNRJYXUGHULQJDYHIIHNWHQDY WLOWDNHQHSnIRVIRUWUDQVSRUWHQ%nGHWLOWDNVHIIHNWHU RJNRVWQDGHUNDQYDULHUHPHGNOLPDG\UNLQJVV\VWHP MRUGW\SHWHUUHQJPHQNRVWQDGHUNDQRJVnYDULHUH PHGHNVLVWHUHQGHUHVVXUVHUSnJnUGHQDUEHLGXWHQIRU RJERQGHQVKROGQLQJHURJYXUGHULQJDYULVLNRPP 'HUIRUDQDO\VHUHUYLLSURVMHNWHWNRVWQDGVHIIHNWLYL WHWXQGHUXOLNHDJURQRPLVNHRJQDWXUJLWWHIRUKROG 9DQQRPUnGHQH0RUVD+DOGHQYDVVGUDJHW3XUDRJ /HLUDYDVVGUDJHWYDUYDOJWXWVRPVWXGLHRPUnGHUGDGH UHSUHVHQWHUHUEUHGGHQLGHWRI\ONHQHPHGKHQV\QWLO YDQQNYDOLWHWRJMRUGEUXN
5HVXOWDWHU
'HWHUYLVWIRUHO¡SLJHUHVXOWDWHUIUDEnGHIRNXVJUXS SHUUnGJLYQLQJRJVS¡UUHXQGHUV¡NHOVH6S¡UUHXQ GHUV¡NHOVHQGHNNHUVYDUIUDFDE¡QGHULGHÀUH YDQQRPUnGHQH6YDUSURVHQWHQYLOOLJJHSnPHOORP RJRJGHNNHPHOORPRJDYWRWDOW MRUGEUXNVDUHDOLGHSnJMHOGHQGHQHGE¡UVIHOW6WXGLHQ RPIDWWHUXOLNHWLOWDNIRUnUHGXVHUHDYUHQQLQJDY IRVIRUWLOYDQQEODQWDQQHWUHGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJRJ UHGXVHUWJM¡GVOLQJ(IIHNWHQDYWLOWDNHQHYDULHUHUDY KHQJLJDYMRUGW\SHWHUUHQJNOLPDRJG\UNLQJVV\VWHP RJHURSSJLWWLNJ3GDD
5HGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJIUDVS¡UUHXQGHUV¡NHOVHQ 'HWKDUY UWJMHQQRPI¡UWWLOWDNVDQDO\VHULGHÀUHXW YDOJWHQHGE¡UIHOW1HGE¡UIHOWHQHYDULHUHULVW¡UUHOVH PHOORPRPODJNPRJNP-RUGEUXNVDUHDOHW XWJM¡UPHOORPRJDYWRWDODUHDOHW-RUGEUX NHWVELGUDJWLOGDJHQVIRVIRUWLOI¡UVOHUWLOYDVVGUDJHQH XWJM¡URPODJKDOYSDUWHQDYGHWRWDOHWLOI¡UVOHQH 6S¡UVPnORPVWDWXVIRUDYOLQJVQLYnOLJJHUSnWLOQ U PHWOLNHQLYnHUPHGOLWHQYDULDVMRQIRUGHVRPKDU VYDUWRJSnOLWWODYHUHQLYnHQQKYDIRUV¡NYLVHU )RURYHUJDQJIUDK¡VWSO¡\LQJWLOK¡VWKDUYLQJIRUK¡VW NRUQVHUHQDWIRUGHWUHDYYDQQRPUnGHQHIRUYHQWHV GHWIRUHQVWRUGHODYE¡QGHQHHQDYOLQJVUHGXNVMRQ SnPHOORPRJRJDWE¡QGHQHL3XUDIRUYHQWHU GHQODYHVWHUHGXNVMRQHQLEnGHDYOLQJHURJ'%VH ÀJXU'HWHURJVnHQWHQGHQVWLODWDOOHYDQQRPUnGHU ERUWVHWWIUD0RUVDIRUYHQWHUUHODWLYODYHUHUHGXNVMRQL '%HQQLDYOLQJ0DQJHUDSSRUWHUHUDWGHKDULQYHVWHUW LVWXEEKDUYWLORJQRHQI UUHDWGHKDU LQYHVWHUWLGLUHNWHVnPDVNLQHOOHUDQGUHPDVNLQHU 0HOORPRJDYE¡QGHQHIRUYHQWHUPHOORPLQ JHQRJUHGXNVMRQLYnUNRUQDYOLQJRPGHPnVOXWWH nSO¡\HHOOHUKDUYHSnK¡VWHQ&DIRUYHQWHU¡NW RJDQGUHLQJHQHQGULQJLDUEHLGVIRUEUXN&D DY0RUVDE¡QGHQHIRUYHQWHULQJHQHQGULQJHOOHU
¡NQLQJLGHNQLQJVELGUDJYHGRYHUJDQJWLOYnUNRUQXWHQ K¡VWDUEHLGDYE¡QGHQHL0RUVDRSSJLUDWGHLNNH EUXNHUSORJHQPRWXQGHUDYGH¡YULJHDY EUXNHQHKDUIUDDYKHOHLQQWHNWHQIUDJnUGHQ PHQDYWRWDODUEHLGVPHQJGHXWI¡UHVHQVW¡UUHDQGHO SnJnUGHQ
.RVWQDGVHIIHNWLYLWHW²UHVXOWDWHUIUDIRNXVJUXSSHU 5HVXOWDWHUIRUNRVWQDGVHIIHNWLYLWHWSnIRUHWDNV¡NRQR PLVNQLYnIUDIRNXVJUXSSHUYLVHUDWGHWLQRHQWLOIHOOH HUO¡QQVRPWnGULYHPHGUHGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJ )RUEnGH3XUDRJ0RUVDYDQQRPUnGHUHUGHQPHVW NRVWQDGVHIIHNWLYHPnWHQnUHGXVHUHDYUHQQLQJSnn IRNXVHUHSnGHDUHDOHULK¡\HVWHURVMRQVNODVVH*HQH
5HIVJDDUG. 0%HFKPDQQ%LRIRUVN)2.86
UHOWKDUYLHUIDUWJMHQQRPYnUHIRNXVJUXSSHVDPWDOHU VDPWGLVNXVMRQPHGUnGJLYQLQJDWUHGXVHUWMRUGDUEHL GLQJNUHYHUEHGUHDJURQRPLGYVEHGUHHNVSHUWLVH Q\NXQQVNDSRJPRWLYDVMRQ2PGLVVHIRUKROGHQHHU RSSI\OWNDQHQRSSQnJRGHUHVXOWDWHURJHYWEHGUH UHVXOWDWHUHQQIRUWUDGLVMRQHOOMRUGDUEHLGLQJ%ODQW DQGUHKDUYLQJSnK¡VWHQHUUHODWLYWO¡QQVRPWLÁHUHDY RPUnGHQH'HWHUVWRUIRUVNMHOOLKDUYLQJRJGHUPHG VWRUYDULDVMRQLGHWWHWLOIHOOHW
,WDEHOOHUYLVWDJJUHJHUWHEHUHJQLQJHUIRUI¡OJHQGH WLOWDNVSDNNHUEDVHUWSnIRNXVJUXSSHGDWD
'DJHQVVWDWXVKDUGDDNRUQKYRUGHWHU VWXEEVRPYnUSO¡\HVL(.(.RJQRH(.PHQV GHWHUK¡VWSO¡\GK¡VWNRUQL(.RJQRH(.
0HGGDWDIUDIRNXVJUXSSHQHHUGHWQHWWRLQQWMHQLQJ YHGRYHUJDQJIUDK¡VWSO¡\GWLOK¡VWKDUYHWL(.
IRUXWVDWWDWDOOHE¡QGHUI¡OJHURSSRJDWGHWLQJHQ DGPLQLVWUDVMRQVNRVWQDGHUHU
6NDO3UHGXNVMRQHQ¡NHVKDUDOWHUQDWLYHW$OWL VWXEEHQJRGHIIHNWPHQGDLQQVNUHQNHVE¡QGHQHV ÁHNVLELOLWHWEHW\GHOLJGDGHWLNNHWLOODWHVMRUG DUEHLGLQJI¡UVnLQJDYK¡VWNRUQ
(QPHUPRGHUDWXWJDYHVRPVYDUHUSWWLO P\QGLJKHWHQHVNUDYHUVWXEERJIULWW +HUHUUHGXNVMRQHQL3WDSLPLGOHUWLGEHVNMHGHQ
'LUHNWHVnGGRJVWXEEKDURJVnJRGHIIHNWPHQKHU HUGHWP\HVNHSVLVEODQWE¡QGHQH
2PUnGJLYQLQJRJYLUNHPLGOHU
*HQHUHOWXWWU\NNHVGHWIUDPDQJHE¡QGHUDWGHWHU
¡QVNHOLJPHGIRUXWVLJEDUKHWQnUGHWJMHOGHUYLUNH PLGOHURJDWUHWWIHUGLJKHWPHOORPRPUnGHURJE¡QGHU HUYLNWLJ9LGHUHDWNRPSHQVDVMRQPnI¡OJHVDY PRWLYDVMRQJMHQQRPUnGJLYQLQJRJLQIRUPDVMRQ(Q GHOXWWU\NNHUDWHQPHUKHOKHWOLJWLOQ UPLQJPHG RYHURUGQHWLQGLYLGXHOOPLOM¡UnGJLYQLQJIRUEUXNHWYLO Y UHYHOHJQHW
$QGUHIRUKROGRSSVXPPHULQJ
)RUXOLNHWLOWDNPRW3DYUHQQLQJWLOYDVVGUDJRJYDQQ DQDO\VHUHVNRVWQDGVHIIHNWLYLWHWSnIRUHWDNV¡NRQRPLVN RJSnDJJUHJHUWQLYnIRUYDQQRPUnGH(UIDULQJHU IUDIRNXVJUXSSHURJIRUHO¡SLJHUHVXOWDWHUIUDVS¡U UHXQGHUV¡NHOVHYLVHUDWHIIHNWLYLWHWHQ¡NHUP\HPHG HURVMRQVNODVVH7LOWDNLIRUPDYUHGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJ NUHYHUEHGUHµODQGPDQQVNDSµGYVEHGUHHNVSHUWLVH NXQQVNDSRJPRWLYDVMRQ2PGLVVHIRUKROGHQHHU RSSI\OWNDQHQRSSQnJRGHUHVXOWDWHURJLQRHQWLOIHOOH EHGUHUHVXOWDWHUHQQIRUWUDGLVMRQHOOMRUGDUEHLGLQJ
5HIHUDQVHU
%ODQNHQEHUJHWDO7LOWDNVDQDO\VHIRU0RUVD(IIHNWHU DYIRVIRUUHGXVHUHQGHWLOWDNL0RUVD%LRIRUVN 5DSSRUWV
%RUFK+%M¡UQGDOHQ. /LQGKROP27LOWDNVSODQ IRU/HLUD1,9$UDSSRUW/15
%RUFK+ 7XUWXP¡\JDUG67LOI¡UVHOVEHUHJQLQJHUIUD EDNJUXQQVDYUHQQLQJODQGEUXNRJVSUHGWDYO¡S7LOWDN IRUODQGEUXNVIRUXUHQVLQJHQL+DOGHQYDVVGUDJHW%LRIRUVN 5DSSRUW
%RUFK+$YUHQQLQJDYQ ULQJVVWRIIIUDODQGEUXNL
%XQQHIMRUGHQPHGcUXQJHQRJ*MHUVM¡YDVVGUDJHW%LR IRUVN5DSSRUW
+nQGERNIRUGULIWVSODQOHJJLQJ1,/)
6WDOOHODQG77LOWDNIRUUHGXVHUWXWVOLSSDYQ ULQJV VDOWHUIUDODQGEUXNHWSn5RPHULNH)RUVNQLQJVPHOGLQJ
$1,/)
0RUVD +DOGHQVYDVVGUDJHW 385$
/HLUD 2YHUUHG
UHG UHG UHG LQJHQHQGULQJ
¡NQ
¡NQ
¡NQ RYHU¡NQ
)LJXU6S¡UVPnOµ+YRUP\HHQGUHU'%VHJSnGLWWMRUGEUXNVDUHDOYHG VNLIWHIUDK¡VWSO¡\LQJWLOK¡VWKDUYLQJ"µ
)LJXU.RVWQDGVHIIHNWLYLWHWL0256$EDVHUWSnIRNXVJUXSSHURJ UnGJLYQLQJ
0256$
KKK¡VWKDUY YNK¡VWSO¡\ YNK¡VW YnUKDUY YNYnUSO¡\ YNYnUKDUY
(QGUNRVWQUHG3NUJ
(. (. (. (.
7DEHOO(NVHPSHOIUD0RUVD7RWDOHNRVWQDGHURJUHGXVHUW3WDSIRU MRUGDUEHLGLQJVWLOWDN
7LOWDN
5HGXNVMRQL 3WDSNJ
SHUnU
.RVWQDGHU YHGWLOWDN
NUSHUnU
VWXEERJIULWW
+¡VWKDUYHWK¡VWNRUQRJ
VWXEE
'LUHNWHVnGGRJVWXEE
$OWLVWXEE
-RUG
JDDUG$)%LRIRUVN)2.86
)RVIRULQGHNV²YXUGHULQJDYULVLNRDUHDOHUL WLONQ\WQLQJWLOJM¡GVHOSODQOHJJLQJ
)RVIRULQGHNVHUHWYHUNW¡\VRPNDQEUXNHVWLOnUDQJHUHDUHDOHULIRUKROGWLOULVLNRIRUIRVIRUWDSRJ YXUGHUHKYLONHWLOWDNVRPHUPHVWHIIHNWLYHIRUnUHGXVHUHIRVIRUWDSHQH%LRIRUVNKDUQnXWYLNOHWHQ NDONXODWRUSnZHEIRUHQNHOEHUHJQLQJDYIRVIRULQGHNV
$QQH)DONJDDUG
%LRIRUVN-RUGRJPLOM¡cV DQQHIDONRJDDUG#ELRIRUVNQR
,QQOHGQLQJ
,PDQJHMRUGEUXNVSnYLUNHGHYDVVGUDJHUYDQQNYDOL WHWHQGnUOLJSnJUXQQDYVWRUDOJHYHNVW)RVIRUIUD MRUGEUXNVDUHDOHUXWJM¡UHQEHW\GHOLJIRVIRUNLOGHIRU DOJHQH,QQI¡ULQJDY(8·VUDPPHGLUHNWLYIRUYDQQKDU JLWWHNVWUDIRNXVSnnEHJUHQVHWLOI¡UVOHUDYQ ULQJV VWRIIHUIUDDOOHDQWURSRJHQHNLOGHUWLOYDQQRJYDVV GUDJ%HJUHQVQLQJDYIRVIRUWDSHQHIUDODQGEUXNHW JLUHNVWUDXWIRUGULQJHUIRUGLGLIIXVDUHDODYUHQQLQJHU KRYHGNLOGHQWLOIRVIRUWDSHQH,MRUGEUXNVODQGVNDSHW HUGHWPDQJHIDNWRUHUVRPSnYLUNHUIRVIRUWDSHW'H YLNWLJVWHHURYHUÁDWHHURVMRQSDUWLNNHOWUDQVSRUWLPD NURSRUHURJJU¡IWHUJM¡GVOLQJRJMRUGDVIRVIRULQQKROG 'HQPHVWHIIHNWLYHUHGXNVMRQHQLIRVIRUWLOI¡UVOHUWLO YDVVGUDJIUDG\UNDPDUNRSSQnVGHUVRPHQIRNXVHUHU SnGHDUHDOHQHVRPELGUDUPHGGHVW¡UVWHWDSHQH'H PHVWNULWLVNHDUHDOHUXWJM¡URIWHHQPLQGUHGHODYHW QHGE¡UIHOWIHNVGHUGHWHUP\HWLOJMHQJHOLJIRVIRU VDPWLGLJVRPWUDQVSRUWSURVHVVHQHHUDNWLYHÀJXU 8WLIUDHW¡QVNHRPnJMHQQRPI¡UHWLOWDNSnDUHDOHU PHGVSHVLHOWVWRUULVLNRIRUIRVIRUWDSRSSVWRGLGHHQ RPnXWYLNOHHQLQGHNVIRUULVLNRIRUIRVIRUWDS
)LJXU)DNWRUHUVRPKDUEHW\GQLQJIRUIRVIRUWDSRJVRPLQQJnUL IRVIRULQGHNV
)RVIRULQGHNV
)RVIRULQGHNVHQHUI¡UVWRJIUHPVWHWSUDNWLVNYHUN W¡\IRUGHVRPKDUDQVYDUIRUWLOWDNPRWIRVIRUWDS IUDMRUGEUXNVDUHDOHU'HQHULNNHHQPRGHOOVRPNDQ VLPXOHUHIRVIRUWDSIUDMRUGEUXNVDUHDOHU,IRVIRULQGHNV HUNXQQVNDSRPHQNHOWSURVHVVHUVRPI¡UHUWLOIRVIRU WDSNREOHWVDPPHQWLOHWYHUNW¡\VRPNDQEUXNHV WLOnUDQJHUHMRUGEUXNVDUHDOHULIRUKROGWLOULVLNRIRU IRVIRUWDS'HWWHJLUPXOLJKHWWLOnPnOUHWWHWLOWD NHQHPRWDUHDOHQHPHGVW¡UVWULVLNRIRUIRVIRUWDS 'HQQRUVNHIRVIRULQGHNVHQHUEDVHUWSnHQIRVIRULQ GHNVXWYLNOHWL86$7LOSDVQLQJHQWLOQRUVNHIRUKROG HUEDVHUWSnNXQQVNDSRPQRUVNHIRUKROGRJQRUVNH IRUV¡N%HFKPDQQ)RVIRULQGHNVHQHUVDWW VDPPHQDYVWHGHJQHIDVWHIDNWRUHUHURVMRQVULVLNR DYVWDQGWLOnSHQWYDQQULVLNRIRUÁRPJU¡IWLQJRJ MRUGDVIRVIRULQQKROGMRUGEUXNVDNWLYLWHWHUMRUGDUEHL GLQJRJJM¡GVOLQJRJODQGVNDSVWLOWDNEXIIHUVRQHURJ JUDVGHNWHYDQQYHLHU(QDYGHVWRUHIRUGHOHQHPHG IRVIRULQGHNVHQVDPPHQOLJQHWPHGDQGUHPRGHOOHU HUDWIRVIRULQGHNVHQHUEDVHUWSnRSSO\VQLQJHUVRP HUWLOJMHQJHOLJHIRUDOOHE¡QGHULJM¡GVHOSODQMRUG DQDO\VHEHYLVRJHURVMRQVNDUWSnLQWHUQHWW
7LOWDNVSODQOHJJLQJ
,WLOWDNVSODQOHJJLQJSnJnUGVQLYnNDQIRVIRULQGHNVHQ EUXNHVVRPKMHOSHPLGGHOWLOnYXUGHUHGHPHVWHIIHN WLYHWLOWDNHQHPRWIRVIRUWDS5HGXVHUWIRVIRUJM¡GVOLQJ UHGXVHUWMRUGDUEHLGLQJYHJHWDVMRQVVRQHURJJUDVGHN WHYDQQYHLHUHUWLOWDNVRPYLOUHGXVHUHIRVIRULQGHNVHQ LXOLNJUDGDYKHQJLJDYGHQDWXUJLWWHIRUKROGHQH9HG nEHUHJQHIRVIRULQGHNVIRUGHXOLNHGULIWVDOWHUQDWL YHQHInVHQLQGLNDVMRQSnKYLONHWLOWDNVRPHUPHVW HIIHNWLYH+YLVK¡\IRVIRULQGHNVVN\OGHVHWK¡\W3$/
QLYnLMRUGDYLOLPLGOHUWLGUHGXVHUWIRVIRUJM¡GVOLQJ Y UHHWODQJVLNWLJWLOWDN)RVIRUQLYnHWLMRUGDHUKHU EOLWWE\JGRSSRYHUPDQJHnURJWLOVYDUHQGHYLOGHWWD
JDDUG$)%LRIRUVN)2.86
PDQJHnUnUHGXVHUHQLYnHWWLOHWPLOM¡RSWLPDOWQLYn )RVIRULQGHNVHQHUEDVHUWSnWLOWDNNQ\WWHWWLOHQNHOW VNLIWHU(QGHOWLOWDNVRPNDQY UHDNWXHOOHIRUnUH GXVHUHULVLNRIRUIRVIRUDYUHQQLQJIUDMRUGVEUXNVDUHDOHU HULNNHWDWWPHGLIRVIRULQGHNVHQ'HWNDQHQWHQY UH IRUGLGHWHUYDQVNHOLJnYXUGHUHHIIHNWHQDYWLOWDNSn JHQHUHOOEDVLVHOOHUIRUGLWLOWDNHWLNNHHUNQ\WWHWWLO HQNHOWVNLIWHU)HNVHUK\GURWHNQLVNHWLOWDNNXPGDP PHURJIDQJGDPPHULNNHLQNOXGHUW
1RHQDUHDOHUYLONRPPHXWPHGHQK¡\IRVIRULQGHNV WLOWURVVIRUHQPLOM¡PHVVLJJRGGULIWIRUGLDUHDOHW IUDQDWXUHQVVLGHKDUHQK¡\ULVLNRIRUnWDSHIRVIRU
$QGUHDUHDOHUNDQInHQODYIRVIRULQGHNVXWHQJMHQ QRPI¡ULQJDYPLOM¡WLOWDN)RUnJLLQIRUPDVMRQRPGHQ QDWXUJLWWHULVLNRHQIRUnWDSHIRVIRUEHUHJQHUNDONXOD WRUHQRJVnHQVWHGVLQGHNV6WHGVLQGHNVHQEOLUEHUHJ QHWNXQXWLIUDGHVWHGVIDVWHIDNWRUHQHHURVMRQV ULVLNRYHGK¡VWSO¡\LQJÁRPULVLNRDYVWDQGWLOnSHQW YDQQJU¡IWLQJRJMRUGDV3$/WDOO-RUGDV3$/WDOOHU HWUHVXOWDWDYGULIWVSUDNVLVPHQIRUGLGHWWDUODQJWLG nHQGUH3$/WDOOHWHUGHWWDWWPHGLVWHGVLQGHNVHQ
$UHDOHUVRPNRPPHUXWPHGHQK¡\VWHGVLQGHNVHU GHVRPGHWHUYLNWLJVWnIRNXVHUHSnPHGKHQV\QWLO nUHGXVHUHIRVIRUWDSHQHIUDODQGEUXNHW6LGHQHQODY IRVIRULQGHNVLNNHNDQRSSQnVSnDOOHDUHDOHUSnJUXQQ DYVWHGJLWWHIDNWRUHUHUPnOHWnUHGXVHUHIRVIRULQGHN VHQLIRUKROGWLOVWHGVLQGHNVHQPHVWPXOLJ
)RVIRULQGHNVNDONXODWRU
)RUHQNHOWnEHUHJQHIRVIRULQGHNVHUGHWQnODJHW HQNDONXODWRUSnZHEÀJXUKWWSZHEJLVQR SLQGHNV.DONXODWRUHQJLUPXOLJKHWIRUUDVNRJHQNHO XWUHJQLQJDYIRVIRULQGHNVIRUHWVNLIWHRJIRUnSU¡YH
XWKYRUGDQGHQHQGUHVYHGLQQI¡ULQJDYXOLNHWLOWDN (QDYGHVW¡UVWHXWIRUGULQJHQHLIRUELQGHOVHPHG XWYLNOLQJDYHQIRVIRULQGHNVHUnYHNWHGHXOLNHIDN WRUHQHLIRVIRULQGHNVHQVOLNDWGHQJLUHWULNWLJELOGH DYKYLONHVNLIWHULQQHQIRUHWQHGE¡UIHOWVRPKDUVW¡UVW ULVLNRIRUIRVIRUWDS3URVHVVHQHVRPI¡UHUWLOWLOI¡UVOHU DYIRVIRUWLOYDVVGUDJHQHHUPDQJHRJNRPSOLVHUWH )RVIRULQGHNVHQVOLNGHQQnIRUHOLJJHUJLUGHUIRUQ¡G YHQGLJYLVLNNHHWULNWLJELOGHDYULVLNRHQIRUIRVIRUWDS LDOOHVLWXDVMRQHU9L¡QVNHUnXWYLNOHYHUNW¡\HWHWWHU KYHUWVRPYLInUPHUNXQQVNDSRJHUIDULQJYHGEUXN DYLQGHNVHQ9LKnSHUGHUIRUDWGHUHVRPQnSU¡YHU NDONXODWRUHQJLUWLOEDNHPHOGLQJHUKYLVGHUHRSSOHYHU DWGHQJLUXULPHOLJHUHVXOWDWHULQRHQWLOIHOOHU3n EDVLVDYWLOEDNHPHOGLQJHUNDQYLSU¡YHnIRUEHGUH IRVIRULQGHNVHQ
.RQNOXVMRQ
)RVIRULQGHNVHUHWYHUNW¡\IRUn¡NHNRVWQDGVHIIHNWL YLWHWHQLWLOWDNHQHPRWIRVIRUWDSIUDMRUGEUXNVDUHD OHU)RUKYHUWVNLIWHUHSUHVHQWHUHUIRVIRULQGHNVHQHQ VDPOHWYXUGHULQJDYIDNWRUHQHVRPKDUEHW\GQLQJIRU IRVIRUWDSHW'HQNDQY UHHWQ\WWLJYHUNW¡\IRUn¡NH RSSPHUNVRPKHWHQSnGHIDNWRUHQHVRPKDUVW¡UVW EHW\GQLQJIRUIRVIRUWDSHWIUDGHHQNHOWHVNLIWHQH'HW HUHWPnOnXWYLNOHIRVIRULQGHNVHQHWWHUKYHUWVRPYL InUPHUNXQQVNDSRJHUIDULQJYHGEUXNDYLQGHNVHQ
5HIHUDQVHU
%HFKPDQQ0(7KHSKRVSKRUXVLQGH[WRROIRUDV VHVVLQJSKRVSKRUXVWUDQVIHUIURPDJULFXOWXUDODUHDV LQ1RUZD\'UVFLHQWLDUXPWKHVLV1RUZHJLDQ 8QLYHUVLW\RI/LIH6FLHQFHVcV1RUZD\
)LJXU.DONXODWRUIRUEHUHJQLQJDYIRVIRU LQGHNVVRPÀQQHVSnKWWSZHEJLVQR SLQGHNV
